Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - Winter is coming

[Stephen]

There's also almost zero chance the Leafs are going to be able to fit a 15 mil Marner in 3 seasons under the cap - maybe 6-7 once the cap rises enough by then.

I think you lock him up long term or you just get rid of him. In three years time, Morgan Rielly is going to also be up, and I would much rather spend that money on an elite defenseman, good soldier, leader, mature veteran than a guy who has the biggest ego in the league.

 

[PromisedLand]

Johnston implying that naming Matthews Captain may complicate the Marner negotiations.

Which is bat**** crazy.

If its true it says a lot about his character which really concerns me.

to be honest I think this is a load of crap. Why should Marner have any issues with Matthews being the captain? Personally I prefer Rielly as the captain but seriously don't think matthews named captain has any impact on marner negotiations.

it is matthews' contract that is having an impact on marner negotiations not whether matthews will be captain or not.

also aren't matthews and marner good friends and really tight with each other; hanging out together with Marleau and what not.

If this isn't true Chris Johnston is a f***ing POS for trying to create a divide in the locker room

 

[Menzinger]

Dubas has been pretty respectful of Marner for the whole process publicly, but at some point, don't you just tell the Marner camp that "maybe we'll shop you around."

Brendan Shanahan said it himself. It's a privilege to be a Leaf. Marner acts like he's the heir to the empire.

The team has been incredibly protective this whole process. That + the fact the team was able to come.to reasonable understandings worh Matthew's and Nylander makes me puzzled why folks think the problem anywhere other tha the player's side right now.

The earth doesn't revolve around Mitch Marner

 

[kb]

You were the one on about comparables haha. And Nylander played with scrubs? Like Matthews? Pasta has always been the better player. So based on comparables.... Willy is overpaid. Pasta was always the cap for his contract. But Dubas.....

So you completely ignore Pasta's first 2 seasons? Cool.

 

[kb]

Scheifele = 8.39% (8 year deal)
Ehlers = 8.00% (7 year deal)
Larkin = 7.67% (5 year deal)
Forsberg = 8.22% (6 year deal)
Nylander = 8.77% (6 year deal)
Pastrnak = 8.89% (6 year deal)

Pastrnak when he signed was coming off a 70 point / 34 goal season in 75 games at age 20. Nylander was coming off a 61 point 20 goal season at age 21. So he was worse at an older age where he should have been further along in his development yet deserved the same money? His best comparables on here were Ehlers and Forsberg (Forsberg also had back-to-back 60+ point seasons, though he did it with worse linemates and scored more goals). 6.5M would have been 8.17%, which would have been more than fair.

As for Matthews

Stamkos 5 years X 11.66% (Stamkos had a Rocket Richard + finished 5th in NHL scoring in his 2nd season)
Kane 5 years X 11.09% (had finished top 10 in scoring and won a Cup)
Toews 5 years X 11.09% (had won a Conn Smyth, a Cup, and had pretty similar point totals to Matthews after 3 years)
..
..
..
Matthews 5 years X 14.63% (despite a career high of 73 points, and never even projecting to be top 10 in points even if you ignore injuries). He was given McDavid/Malkin/Ovechkin money, despite them winning Art Ross trophies during their ELCs and Matthews never even projecting to finish top 10.

Now do ES points/60 and get back to me. For both. And for Matthews, add in ES goals/60.

 

[Menzinger]

Now do ES points/60 and get back to me. For both. And for Matthews, add in ES goals/60.

The biggest divide on these boards is going to become folks who rely on only total points vs those who contextualize them.

I mean without even touching on es, the equivalent of Nylanders and Matthews on other teams always will get prime pp usage - which wasnt the case for their foret two seasons

 

[kb]

The biggest divide on these boards is going to become folks who rely on only total points vs those who contextualize them

Context is always important. It's why the total points crowd look foolish. Teams don't look at that either, ever. But it makes some feel smarter and better.

 

[biotk]

Realistically.

Lets say the Leafs cannot get Marner signed and other teams cant get their players signed.

Leafs obviously have money to spend and have a 5 year cup window starting this season so they dont have any time to waste......

WPG - Laine
OR
COL - Rantanen

If Mitch cannot get signed, witch player would you trade Marner for straight up?

Laine (9M x 8 years)
Line Combo: Laine-Matthews-Nylander

OR

Rantanen (9M x 8 years)
Line Combo: Hyman-Tavares-Rantanen

I would consider neither. Tkachuk or McAvoy I would consider, but I don't see either team looking to trade them. If I am trading Marner I am doing so with three things in mind: the team needs a physical presence up front who can still score, they need to lock up solid D going forward, they could use a solid backup G.

 

[PromisedLand]

Pretty sure if Jones was offered for Nylander, Dubas will drive Willy to the airport and boot his ass out the car while moving.

Pretty sure if there is an offersheet on Marner for 4 1st rounders Dubas will take that and run.

He will the proceed to laugh at all the comments of everyone whine over what we said in the past being untrue.

I value Marner substantially a lot more than nylander; but if Seth Jones is in play; I would trade Marner for him without even giving it a second thought based on the Leafs positional need and better team composition.

That said, I try to move Nylander first for Jones

(yea i know, CBJ would hang up on nylander for jones trade)

 

[PromisedLand]

The one advantage of that 3 year deal, even at at absurd aav is that it allows the Leafs to get full value for him at a trade next offsesson if they want.

not if the qualifying offer is based on the salary of 15 million on the third year

 

[PromisedLand]

Dubas has been pretty respectful of Marner for the whole process publicly, but at some point, don't you just tell the Marner camp that "maybe we'll shop you around."

Brendan Shanahan said it himself. It's a privilege to be a Leaf. Marner acts like he's the heir to the empire.

not disagreeing with your "privilege" comment but why is it only applied to Marner? what about Matthews and Nylander?

 

[ElbowLander]

This just in..traded to.....wait hold on me information...he wants to be a leaf and there are 5 to 7 other RFAs doing the same thing

Give it up

Give up what?

Also if he wanted to be here he wouldnt be holding the leafs over a barrell and would sign the 11 x7 he was offered

 

[biotk]

In theory it might work but in practice this gets complicated because if a player is making say 10% of the cap when they signed the contract that means they will keep making 10% of the cap whether the cap goes up or down; so teams will not be able to get "good deals" and load up on their roster.

Players, agents and teams already factor the cap going up into their deals so the players and agents demand a higher cap hit at the time of signing - which hampers their team. David signed for 16.67% of the cap, but it will probably be around 13% of the cap in his final year. If he signed for 14.55% of the team's cap hit then it would end up being around the same. He would get paid less now and more at the end.

Players know that the cap is supposed to go up a lot in the near future - that is why players like Matthews and the rest of these RFAs don't want to sign a long deal. Teams also don't have certainty with the current system. No one knew what this year's cap hit was going to be at the time of the draft. It was absurd.

 

[PromisedLand]

The biggest divide on these boards is going to become folks who rely on only total points vs those who contextualize them.

I mean without even touching on es, the equivalent of Nylanders and Matthews on other teams always will get prime pp usage - which wasnt the case for their foret two seasons

"context" is not just p/60 but also the usage, QoT and QoC

Look at the WOWY stats for Nylander without Matthews; Nylander looks absolutely terrible while Matthews doesn't struggle a whole bunch at all.

Marner scores with or without Matthews (or Tavares) at a decent clip even when Matthews is injured and the opposition focuses solely on Marner's line; while Marner is playing against oppositions' top line with Kadri and Komarov/Marleau

now that is context which is not found in the p/60 numbers

 

[biotk]

to be honest I think this is a load of crap. Why should Marner have any issues with Matthews being the captain?

I don't think the belief is that Mitch would have major issues with it. I think the belief is that Paul would...well we already know Paul will...so the question is how much influence does Paul have on these negotiations. I have no idea, but I think it is a lot.

 

[PromisedLand]

Players, agents and teams already factor the cap going up into their deals so the players and agents demand a higher cap hit at the time of signing - which hampers their team. David signed for 16.67% of the cap, but it will probably be around 13% of the cap in his final year. If he signed for 14.55% of the team's cap hit then it would end up being around the same. He would get paid less now and more at the end.

Players know that the cap is supposed to go up a lot in the near future - that is why players like Matthews and the rest of these RFAs don't want to sign a long deal. Teams also don't have certainty with the current system. No one knew what this year's cap hit was going to be at the time of the draft. It was absurd.

Unlike majority of us on the HF boards whose ROI is laughable; hockey players ROI on millions of dollars is pretty sizable; David taking less before compared to after is lost investment opportunities.

He could have bought a house for 2 million and then sell it for 3 million by the time his contract is done that is a million dollar ROI which could not be earned by investing in stocks/bonds alone in that period of time for example

heck even if he invested in the market with options his ROI on millions invested now will be sizable compared to investments done later;

no incentive for him to take less money now than later

 

[ElbowLander]

The only reason Boston has a few steals for contracts is because those players peaked dramatically after they were already locked up. Marchand wasnt putting up over a ppg and they got him signed for 6m. Same with Bergeron. Pasta also wasnt what he is today when he signed. Its amazing how difficult for some people to understand this. If Marchand was a UFA right now you can bet he'd be getting 9m+.

No its not. Their players know what it takes to win a cup and realize that it takes a whole team. They dont have a bunch of greedy kids on it

 

[PromisedLand]

I don't think the belief is that Mitch would have major issues with it. I think the belief is that Paul would...well we already know Paul will...so the question is how much influence does Paul have on these negotiations. I have no idea, but I think it is a lot.

Paul can feel whatever he wants; Paul doesn't put on #16 and step on the ice or shares the locker room with #34 so quite frankly it is a non-issue IMO.

as long as players don't have issue with each other who cares. Johnston's shtick comes out as Marner has an issue; and this would create a divide in the locker room; which isn't good for a healthy locker room and positive mindset heading into games

 

[kb]

No its not. Their players know what it takes to win a cup and realize that it takes a whole team. They dont have a bunch of greedy kids on it

So that's why McAvoy and Carlo are holding out? No greedy kids?

 

[Stephen]

not disagreeing with your "privilege" comment but why is it only applied to Marner? what about Matthews and Nylander?

Neither of those guys really commented in public about anything during negotiations though.

 

[Marshy]

JFC Paul is the new Carl and Bonnie Lindros....just great.

Why can't we have nice things?

 

[PromisedLand]

Neither of those guys really commented in public about anything during negotiations though.

Neither has Marner.

Ferris went on the air out of his own and made stupid comments; and then following that went on the air again to clarify his comment and backtrack. Just FYI all of Ferris' crap was reported by Feschuk who is known to stir the pot and put fuel on the fire (the fire he himself creates btw)

Matthews didn't have to make any comment because he was given a blank cheque

Nylander couldn't comment as he was the first one to go for negotiations. That said, Nylander did make a public comment about Dubas wanting to take the negotiations at a slow pace

Nylander's contract talks could go down to wire (and that's OK) - Sportsnet.ca

“I’ve said all along that Kyle wanted to take things slow and I’m fine with that,” Nylander said.

 

[biotk]

Paul can feel whatever he wants; Paul doesn't put on #16 and step on the ice or shares the locker room with #34 so quite frankly it is a non-issue IMO.

as long as players don't have issue with each other who cares. Johnston's shtick comes out as Marner has an issue; and this would create a divide in the locker room; which isn't good for a healthy locker room and positive mindset heading into games

Johnston has said that he thinks it would affect negotiations and therefore would be better off being delayed until after Marner is signed. That is pretty strong evidence that Johnston doesn't think it will bother Mitch Marner and therefore create a divide in the locker room - or else it would still bother him after the contract is signed, but that it will cause problems with negotiating with the Marner camp - which makes perfect sense if you view the Marner camp's negotiations as not based on rationality but instead being driven by a deep seeded anger (mainly coming from Paul) that Marner hasn't been respected - not now - and not when he was growing up. If you choose not to believe that is what is going on with these negotiations, that is fine. But I do believe it, and it was the reason why last summer when everyone felt that Marner's negotiations were going to be a piece of cake, I said that Marner's negotiations were going to be brutal.

 

[Dekes For Days]

That said, Nylander did make a public comment about Dubas wanting to take the negotiations at a slow pace

Nylander's contract talks could go down to wire (and that's OK) - Sportsnet.ca

“I’ve said all along that Kyle wanted to take things slow and I’m fine with that,” Nylander said.

And again, you leave out the rest of the quote from August 2018, that shows that Dubas was already negotiating.

“They’re going back and forth with my agent from what I hear."

 

[biotk]

The only reason Boston has a few steals for contracts is because those players peaked dramatically after they were already locked up. Marchand wasnt putting up over a ppg and they got him signed for 6m. Same with Bergeron. Pasta also wasnt what he is today when he signed. Its amazing how difficult for some people to understand this. If Marchand was a UFA right now you can bet he'd be getting 9m+.

This is true. If you look at the contracts at the time they were signed and not what they have done sense, none of those contracts looked like steals at the time.