Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - Training camp looms

[Clark4Ever]

11x7 would end up being okay.

But it seems like Marner’s camp want close to an 11M AAV on 3 year deal soooooooo

If that's the case I say let him rot.

 

[Faustus]

What kind of defensive pieces can we get for Marner?

If rumours of turning down very lucrative contract offers are true, as sad as it would be, ship him out for that premier number one d-man. What kind of names would we be looking at?

Less than most people on this board think. A 1W is worth a lot less than a 1D, even when that winger isn't asking for 11x7.

 

[Jack Bauer]

Yeah it’s not a good deal for the leafs but I’d say fair with the gambling revenues expected to spike the cap in the next couple years.

If he does not take this deal, which makes him a top 5 highest paid player, sit out then.

NHL isn't going to see a huge windfall from gambling revenues.

Where the cap goes all depends on the next TV deals.

The cap is pretty much going to stay in this stagnant/1-2% growth for the considerable future barring something like a final 4 featuring all Canadian teams or some other scenario that would really drive ratings and revenues.

Rogers bleeding already from their TV deal isn't a good sign for the NHL.

 

[Kamiccolo]

Also, put me in the camp that thinks 11 x 7 is a good deal for us. If you look at the Kucherov deal, and draw the line there, you were always going to be disappointment. Tampa has gotten a discount on all of their players. I wish ours did the same, but that is a different topic.

But if Marner really won't come off the Matthews deal, and wants a 3 year bridge at 9.5, with or without that last year at 15M, that is a good contract. 1.5 more, but you get 4 more years. By next offseason the cap rises 1.5 to offset that. Few years from now, with a new TV deal and expansion money, the cap hit will be a steal, and allow us to extend the window by singing Matthews and Nylander to 2nd deals while his is still going, and line up perfect for when Marner is done having JT finish his deal as well.

Also works perfect to let Marner walk if McDavid is coming home.

 

[ULF_55]

I think we need to trade marner at this point. He hates being behind matthews. That will never change.

If the speculation is true: That is my concern ... he has to be equal to or better than everyone on the team and has to chose who the captain is. That's a none starter for me. By chose I mean, if he isn't the captain he'll take it as an insult. If Matthews is made captain he'll take it as an insult.

If true: Gone.

 

[kb]

People still support nylander even after he held out till the last day. Yes there are a portion of people who hate on nylander. Marner still has a long time to go before he pulls what nylander did. There is plenty of time till Dec 1st. Dubas will obviously try to get him locked up earlier but if he cant we need to show patience and accept this is happening like we did with Nylander.

The only issue here is that the Leafs LTIR room dwindles daily once the season starts, plus the first year cap hit on a contract goes up each day. So Mitch is either forcing himself to take a much lesser contract, forcing himself to sit a year, or forcing a trade out of town. Those are the only 3 possible outcomes once the season starts.

 

[Mess]

The scenario doesn't work in this league. It doesn't work that way.

You're right a signed Marner has more value. But you don't sign him to trade him. Otherwise you keep your signed 90 point player who plays with your 45+ goal center.

What if the amount you sign Marner for is unmanageable with your own salary cap situation?

Some teams with more cap space can afford to pay more, and use a higher C.H.%.

Leafs already have 2 players making $11 mil or more, and no team has that, and most don't even have 1. So Leafs having 3 players seems like an unmanageable cap situation.

If Marner got an OS for more than Leafs are willing to pay him and they match it and then trade him away in a year from now (when allowed per CBA) then the end result is essentially the same. So all we're talking is timing here.

 

[hamzarocks]

Ignorance. Slavin would arguably be the best defender on the Leafs. It would be between him and Rielly, and I am sure the board would be split like they are with every other comparable player. You take that deal 100/100 if it is offered. Having Rielly and Slavin anchor your top 2 pairings for your cup window is massive, and his contract is a steal.

UFA wingers come up all the time. Save 6M in cap space by dealing him, and use that plus the cap increase next offseason to bring in the best on you can. Of course Carolina would never do that deal. They aren't paying Aho his contract and then paying nearly double for Marner.

Slavin was the only one I was a bit iffy on. His reputation is very high around the league. His offensive production has not been anything to write about but people who watch him say he is a defensive rock who can shut down(through a strong defensive system) top stars league wide. He is not better than Rielly imo but ya he is probably our 2nd best defender.

The level of free agent wingers who pop up in UFA are usually worse than Kapanen/Johnsson and get overpaid usually while being 27+ and going into their decline years. I would much rather Marner at 11 million for the next 8 years where he can be expected to put up 90+ points year in and year out over a guy like ferland/dzingle/tatar etc (decent 2nd or 3rd line guys) who put up 45-50 points and can get paid up to 5-6 million

 

[DarkKnight]

Zigomanis on 590 saying sorry Matthews and JT fans, it's Marner that stirs the drink. He isn't your typical winger, he drives the offence and the center vs winger arguments don't apply as much with Marner. He then says "bring it on" to the twitter world which will now attack him endlessly.

Cue the outrage!

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Marner is better than JT. Considerably better moving forward. He is our 2nd best player (if Matthews stays healthy and finds chemistry with Nylander again). Just b/c AM is better than MM doesnt mean we gotta tear down Marner. Marner was trending towards being an elite player since 2018 when he placed for 90 points in a 40ish game sample with kadri and Marleau.

Take a quick look at Marner's PP production when he was playing with Kadri and Marleau. It was quite significant from what I can tell so I decided to take a closer look.

For example in Febuary, Marner had 12 ES points in 14 games which is pretty amazing, however 4 on those ES points (33% of his ES production for the entire month) came in 1 game against Ottawa.

In March mitch had 16 points in 13 games but 9 of them were PP points resulting in 7 ES points in 13 games. In april he played 3 games with 0 points.

Let's look at his most productive months with Bozak and JVR the same year (Nov and Dec). In November Marner put up 10 points in 15 games with 8 on those ES points. In December he put up 13 points in 13 games with 8 of those ES points.

Looking at his ES production per month per game after his lines slow start:

November: 0.53 es pts/game
December: 0.61 es pts/game
January: 0.33 es pts/game
February: 0.85 es pts/game
March: 0.52 es pts/game
April: 0 es pts/game


This doesnt even include the 2.5 to 3 minutes in extra even strength minutes per game that he played the last quarter for the year (I.e. while playing with Kadri) which would reduce his ES points/60 significantly. His production in March with Kadri+Marleau was likely one of his worst ES points/60 on the year.

To me I see one really amazing month (February) that looks like an outlier compared to the rest of his production regardless of linemates. I think people tend to forget how hot the leafs PP got for the second half of that year.

Edit: interestly Mitch was terrible against western teams that year and near PPG against Eastern teams

 

[Walshy7]

Seth Jones please.

dream come true if we could get jones, I highly doubt CBJ would do that thoug

 

[Suntouchable13]

That's the part I really don't get.
Many claim that Dreger is putting information out there for Ferris yet everything Dreger puts out sheds Marner in a bad light.
Only thing that makes sense is the end game in all this is Marner signs for less than what Dreger has put out there and all is forgiven.

I am actually starting to believe that he will never suit up for the Leafs again. He'll be playing elsewhere this season.

 

[hamzarocks]

The only issue here is that the Leafs LTIR room dwindles daily once the season starts, plus the first year cap hit on a contract goes up each day. So Mitch is either forcing himself to take a much lesser contract, forcing himself to sit a year, or forcing a trade out of town. Those are the only 3 possible outcomes once the season starts.

I think Dubas should work hard on signing him until the Dec 1dt deadline set a max limit on a 7/8 year deal and don't negotiate another offer with him after that. If he isnt willing to go for deal like what's reportedly being offered by Dec 1st, consider him a write off. Let him sit the year and trade him next year. Until he shows he is willing to miss the entire year of hockey to chase money we should try and sign him, if the LTIR lowers what we can pay marner than marner better expect some lower than anticipated offers which are his fault. Give him till Dec 1st.

 

[ULF_55]

Slavin was the only one I was a bit iffy on. His reputation is very high around the league. His offensive production has not been anything to write about but people who watch him say he is a defensive rock who can shut down(through a strong defensive system) top stars league wide. He is not better than Rielly imo but ya he is probably our 2nd best defender.

The level of free agent wingers who pop up in UFA are usually worse than Kapanen/Johnsson and get overpaid usually while being 27+ and going into their decline years. I would much rather Marner at 11 million for the next 8 years where he can be expected to put up 90+ points year in and year out over a guy like ferland/dzingle/tatar etc (decent 2nd or 3rd line guys) who put up 45-50 points and can get paid up to 5-6 million

Sounds like he has no interest in a long term deal. So no you aren't getting him for 8 * $11mm.

 

[Walshy7]

Zigomanis on 590 saying sorry Matthews and JT fans, it's Marner that stirs the drink. He isn't your typical winger, he drives the offence and the center vs winger arguments don't apply as much with Marner. He then says "bring it on" to the twitter world which will now attack him endlessly.

Cue the outrage!

as in mike zigomanis? I didn't know he was on the radio now haha,

 

[WTFMAN99]

11x7 would end up being okay.

But it seems like Marner’s camp want close to an 11M AAV on 3 year deal soooooooo

I don't even know how happy I would be with 7x11, richest contract for a winger, didn't get max term...like the relief of it being done, sure, fine but don't think that would be a great contract.

The 3x11 wouldn't even get an acknowledgement from me if I ran the team lol.

 

[Bomber0104]

Zigomanis on 590 saying sorry Matthews and JT fans, it's Marner that stirs the drink. He isn't your typical winger, he drives the offence and the center vs winger arguments don't apply as much with Marner. He then says "bring it on" to the twitter world which will now attack him endlessly.

Cue the outrage!

"You don't know what you're talking about former pro-hockey player... I READ BLOGS ON MY COMPUTER!!!!"

 

[ULF_55]

Zigomanis on 590 saying sorry Matthews and JT fans, it's Marner that stirs the drink. He isn't your typical winger, he drives the offence and the center vs winger arguments don't apply as much with Marner. He then says "bring it on" to the twitter world which will now attack him endlessly.

Cue the outrage!

LOL

Posted an article the other day that contradicted that.

We do know he helped Tavares score a couple more points and quite a few more goals.
We do know that Tavares scored a lot of goals which helped marner score quite a few more assists.

 

[18leafsfan18]

I thought 10.5 x 6 or 7 was going to be the final outcome.

Could live with 11 x 7 but it shouldn't be a dollar more (Shouldn't even be there really).

 

[Fogelhund]

Just curious... what would the add need to be, for us to make a Marner for Seth Jones trade?

 

[Walshy7]

Mkenzie now confirming they turned down $11m x 7. Yep they are delusion its safe to take it to the bank now

they turned it down because "Its lower AAV and longer term than Matthews". Petty petty people these marners

 

[Walshy7]

Just curious... what would the add need to be, for us to make a Marner for Seth Jones trade?

considerably. jones is manrer level player on D which is always >>>> than a winger

 

[Cor]

Zigomanis on 590 saying sorry Matthews and JT fans, it's Marner that stirs the drink. He isn't your typical winger, he drives the offence and the center vs winger arguments don't apply as much with Marner. He then says "bring it on" to the twitter world which will now attack him endlessly.

Cue the outrage!

I mean, that's quiet false, and it can be shown with statistics.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Zigomanis on 590 saying sorry Matthews and JT fans, it's Marner that stirs the drink. He isn't your typical winger, he drives the offence and the center vs winger arguments don't apply as much with Marner. He then says "bring it on" to the twitter world which will now attack him endlessly.

Cue the outrage!

Well if Zigomanis says it, it must be true

Funny these washed up has-beens come out of the wood-work to tell us what to think

 

[SniperOnTheWing]

This has been an ego thing from day one. Marner is butthurt that he came up in McDavid's shadow and is now living in Matthews' shadow in the NHL.

Get over yourself Mitch. You're not better than those guys and you're not worth as much or more.