Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - Less than 2 weeks to camp

[Walshy7]

I must be missing something - isn’t it impossible for us to sign Marner until the season starts? My understanding is we can only go 10% over the cap in the offseason, and we can’t put guys on LTIR until the season starts. So we have to wait for the season to start, then put guys on LTIR, then sign Marner.

I’m guessing I have something wrong?

I think you are right, and it was all laid out when we traded for Clarkson. Im not 100% sure but I think trading for Clarkson means there is no benefit gained unless we sign marner on the opening night and not before.

As I say I stand to be corrected on this, but its something like that

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Nylander 6 year, Matthews 5, Marner "x" (bridge maybe) ..........? Wonder how many ppl will claim that was predictable and what they expected all along?

 

[WTFMAN99]

Interestingly enough the 22-27 5yr contract seems to have roughly equal cap% value to the 27-35 8yr contract, given the 5yr buys a few RFA years as well as the most expensive UFA year, and the 8yr buys a few decline years.

Of course somewhat dependent on if the player became substantially better between the signing of the 5yr and its expiry.

8 year has some benefits for the player too. Concussions? Knee injury etc? Guaranteed money isn't a bad thing.

1. Sure, but it would still hurt the team & Dubas.

2. Agreed. As time goes by, the possibility of a bridge deal increases.

I think signing a bad contract for Marner is arguably worse then not signing him, we're at a delicate stage with this team, if we're severely mismanaged then the cap window closes in a hurry.

Agreed $10.86 mil X 8 would reset the RFA winger ceiling and would have to be upper most limit Leafs should go to get Marner signed and then swallow hard knowing they had to overpay to play.

Realistically Marner's price last summer was not Eichel's contract as a comparable but Draisaitl's $8.5 mil X 8 deal the one openly mentioned and discussed as his ask and eventual target.

Eichel deal +$2 mil per season was one comparable used in the Matthews contract negotiations not Marner.

Somewhere between last summer and now there seems to be a very large logical disconnect from reality here, and the only thing that changed is the Matthews contract coming in the middle.

I was fine with 12.5M x 8 years for Matthews, the math added up for me but unfortunately Dubas looked a little green there. Matthews is also more unique, he's a centre and a goal scorer, 2 very valuable things in the NHL.

I keep coming back to 10.5M x 8 years for Marner as a landing spot for a contract, it's pretty great money for him coming out of an ELC and not a giant win for Dubas either.

 

[Mess]

Are we suggesting the Leafs best players are physically inferior to other star players?

I think they should earn their money.

Games played >= 50 forwards TOI

Marner 31st.
Tavares 44th.
Matthews 62nd.

All about team depth.

Last year Babcock felt very secure with a Marleau -- Kadri -- Nylander 3rd line to be used regularly at the expense of lines #1 and #2 overall TOI/g. That line used regularly allowed for him to create mismatches against the opposition via line matching and even more so at home with last change.

More ice time is often linked to equal more productivity automatically, but that is not necessarily true because less tired players on shorter shifts can be more effective because they have more energy than players that take longer shifts for the sake or more TOI/g but more coasting and conserving energy during shifts.

Now once Marner is signed to his $10 mil there will be a much larger talent gap between lines #1-2 and #3-4 by paying your own players and stars more money.

Leafs will have no choice by playing and taxing their top 6 more now because there is less talent and less trust in the bottom 2 lines to use regularly.

Essentially Leafs are moving from a top 9 more balanced ATOI/g last year to a Top 6 and Bottom 6 ATOI/g configuration this year due to cap spending and playing your haves more and your have nots less in a desire to win.

You will see Leafs stars now joining other teams marquee players in ice time not because of want necessarily but because of need. The benefit of a deeper team now lost in the process of a top heavy cap spending team due mostly in part to new contracts not new strategy.

 

[ULF_55]

All about team depth.

Last year Babcock felt very secure with a Marleau -- Kadri -- Nylander 3rd line to be used regularly at the expense of lines #1 and #2 overall TOI/g. That line used regularly allowed for him to create mismatches against the opposition via line matching and even more so at home with last change.

Now once Marner is signed to his $10 mil there will be a much larger talent gap between lines #1-2 and #3-4 by paying your own players and stars more money.

Leafs will have no choice by playing and taxing their top 6 more now because there is less talent and less trust in the bottom 2 lines to use regularly.

Essentially Leafs are moving from a top 9 more balanced ATOI/g last year to a Top 6 and Bottom 6 ATOI/g configuration this year due to cap spending and playing your haves more and your have nots less in a desire to win.

You will see Leafs stars now joining other teams marquee players in ice time not because of want necessarily but because of need. The benefit of a deeper team now lost in the process of a top heavy cap spending team due mostly in part to new contracts not new strategy.

I think it is they're moving closer to an ideal 1st., 2nd., 3rd. line team and not worrying about 6 minute a night 4th. line.

Kerfoot was 3rd. liner in Colorado
Put Johnsson and Kapanen with him and that's 2/3 of a 2nd. line and Kerfoot.

Hyman-Tavares-$10mmarner
Mikheyev-Matthews-Nylander
Johnsson-Kerfoot-Kapanen
don't care 1 - don't care 2 - don't care 3

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I think signing a bad contract for Marner is arguably worse then not signing him, we're at a delicate stage with this team, if we're severely mismanaged then the cap window closes in a hurry.

Might have happened already? Nylander 6, Matthews 5, Marner "x"? That would be even more the case if Marner gets a bridge.

Aside - Is Marner's camp really enthusiastic about a 8 year deal? Same question with the $10.5 m per.

 

[CDN24]

All rfa's.

Not only is Kucherov substantially better at the moment, but his contract is ALL ufa years.

Speaking of curves... isn't there a pretty clear one set when it comes to rfa's making less than ufa's? Why isn't Aho's 8.5x5 in the equation?

Eichel's contract was clearly above the curve... yet it still set the new floor for where Matthews negotiations began. So I ask again... why do team friendly contracts "not count", yet player friendly contracts set the new floor for leaf negotiations?

It's all nonsense.

That's not quite true 7 UFA years one RFA year. Had his contract expired he would have had one RFA year left. 3 yr entry plus 3 year bridge. Had he become a UFA available to all he would be in Ney york instead of Panarin making Mcdavid money or a tad more.

We seem to be focusing on comparables to determine is worth or what he should sign for. At the end of the day comparables are really only useful to determine if he is over/underpaid. He will be paid what he and the leafs negociate. Also market has shifted for RFAs so even contracts signed a year ago don't seem to fit the new reality of elite players coming of ELC. Teams who have elite guys going into year 2 and 3 of ELc contracts are watching closely as to what happens with these guys.

Looks like it is about to become a game of chicken, who blinks first. Unlike last year with Nylander, when he was one of the few remaining unsigned RFA's, this year there are bunch of them so there are guys other than Marner or Dubas to blink first.

Somewhat contradictory to my previous stmt about comparables, the comparables that will matter are point and rantannen if they sakic or brisebois blink first.

 

[18leafsfan18]

I think you are right, and it was all laid out when we traded for Clarkson. Im not 100% sure but I think trading for Clarkson means there is no benefit gained unless we sign marner on the opening night and not before.

As I say I stand to be corrected on this, but its something like that

I'm curious to know this too.

Leafs currently $2,897,199 Over the cap (3.6%) can only go over by another $5,252,801. On capfriendly with a 22 man roster.

Maybe moving around some contracts works or something ?

 

[666]

1	10.0	10.0	10.0
2	10.5	20.5	10.3
3	11.0	31.5	10.5
4	11.5	43.0	10.8
5	12.0	55.0	11.0
6	12.5	67.5	11.3
7	13.0	80.5	11.5
8	13.5	94.0	11.8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Mess]

I was fine with 12.5M x 8 years for Matthews, the math added up for me but unfortunately Dubas looked a little green there. Matthews is also more unique, he's a centre and a goal scorer, 2 very valuable things in the NHL.

I keep coming back to 10.5M x 8 years for Marner as a landing spot for a contract, it's pretty great money for him coming out of an ELC and not a giant win for Dubas either.

2 wrongs never make a right, but because of the overpayment of Matthews its will cost Dubas and an overpayment for Marner is now inevitable from the fallout of the first contract.

If Matthews contract was correct to market standards falling between McDavid @$12.5 mil ceiling and Eichel @$10 mil floor all based on 8 year terms 4 RFA and 4 UFA then getting Marner signed now would be much simpler and more logical linear thinking process.

Matthews at $11.634 mil X 8 and Marner at $10.516 mil X 8 landing spot with Marner coming in about $1 mil per less than Matthews adjusting for position and goals > assists.

Unfortunately Leafs Cap situation is all SNAFU and as a result one bad apple contract spoils the bunch, so here we sit hearing +$10.5 is the 5 year team price not the 8 year deal it should be for Marner.

 

[ACC1224]

2 wrongs never make a right, but because of the overpayment of Matthews its will cost Dubas and an overpayment for Marner is now inevitable from the fallout of the first contract.

If Matthews contract was correct to market standards falling between McDavid @$12.5 mil ceiling and Eichel @$10 mil floor all based on 8 year terms 4 RFA and 4 UFA then getting Marner signed now would be much simpler and more logical linear thinking process.

Matthews at $11.634 mil X 8 and Marner at $10.516 mil X 8 landing spot with Marner coming in about $1 mil per less than Matthews adjusting for position and goals > assists.

Unfortunately Leafs Cap situation is all SNAFU and as a result one bad apple contract spoils the bunch, so here we sit hearing +$10.5 is the 5 year team price not the 8 year deal it should be for Marner.

Yep, they should have signed Matthews last.
I'm confident it will all work out.
Dubas is too smart to mess this up.

 

[WTFMAN99]

2 wrongs never make a right, but because of the overpayment of Matthews its will cost Dubas and an overpayment for Marner is now inevitable from the fallout of the first contract.

If Matthews contract was correct to market standards falling between McDavid @$12.5 mil ceiling and Eichel @$10 mil floor all based on 8 year terms 4 RFA and 4 UFA then getting Marner signed now would be much simpler and more logical linear thinking process.

Matthews at $11.634 mil X 8 and Marner at $10.516 mil X 8 landing spot with Marner coming in about $1 mil per less than Matthews adjusting for position and goals > assists.

Unfortunately Leafs Cap situation is all SNAFU and as a result one bad apple contract spoils the bunch, so here we sit hearing +$10.5 is the 5 year team price not the 8 year deal it should be for Marner.

12.5M was proper math during the season. McDavid is 16.68% cap hit on an 8 year deal, so do Matthews at 12% x whatever projected amount the cap ceiling was supposed to be (it came in less), it should have been 12.45 (or bump to 12.5M) and boom, it made sense.

The whole "it'll cost 13-15M to lock up Matthews for 8 years" narrative was ridiculous. Maybe if you literally didn't counter but 12.5M x 8 years for Matthews should have been done.

Oh well, coulda, shoulda, woulda.

I actually think Marner's deal is done by camp and then we can focus on how Babcock will f*** up this season. I swear if our break out strategy is the stretch pass again and the forwards keep flying the zone early, I will lose it.

 

[Mess]

Yep, they should have signed Matthews last.
I'm confident it will all work out.
Dubas is too smart to mess this up.

I'm confident eventually Marner will be signed also.

Not so confident as you that this will be in Leafs favour however, with a contract that will have no real comparables to measure against other than internal pay scale, which is a GM defined thing now after JT and the 3 Amigos pecking order.

PS. I see what you did there.

 

[ULF_55]

I'm confident eventually Marner will be signed also.

Not so confident as you that this will be in Leafs favour however, with a contract that will have no real comparables to measure against other than internal pay scale, which is a GM defined thing now after JT and the 3 Amigos pecking order.

I'm sure he'll be tradeable at whatever contract they agree upon.

I don't think that the cost is 4 unprotected 1st. round picks in the next 5 years though.

I believe he could have been offersheeted if he was worth the cost, but that's a huge unknown when dealing with unprotected 1st. rounders.

Other than Tavares none of their contracts are real problems.

 

[jrgtml67]

I'm sure he'll be tradeable at whatever contract they agree upon.

I don't think that the cost is 4 unprotected 1st. round picks in the next 5 years though.

I believe he could have been offersheeted if he was worth the cost, but that's a huge unknown when dealing with unprotected 1st. rounders.

Other than Tavares none of their contracts are real problems.

Well I believe he was offersheeted BUT he didn't sign it ..CBJ came out and said they were "going to" but that Marner didn't want 7yrs and they "got the feeling," he wanted to be a leaf. Hmm wonder how they got that "feeling." Probably because they presented him an offersheet (they even said he didn't want 7yrs) my theory is they sent him a 7yr max deal and said nope..I want to be in Toronto. Everything points to that

 

[Menzinger]

what is your definition of believable? something that aligns with your thoughts and makes dubas looks like a genius is believable? if something makes dubas look bad or contradicts your preconceived notions then it is not believable?

yea i don't operate that way

there is a logical flow from the reported stories just because they didn't come to pass doesn't mean there wasn't any truth to them.

unless dubas comes out and says it or canes or blues come out and say what was offered for nylander apparently everything should be disregarded? why?

there are merits to the stories and they should be talked about to ascertain what potential moves dubas could have made but didn't and what is the impact on the team

I follow the Wild very closely since I live in the market. There's never been a serious speculation that Dumba has ever been considered tradbait the last several years. Any suggestion that he is was laughable and is not to be believed.

What's clear is that some teams inquired about Nylander during the fall-thats all. The notion that Dubas had a deal for Nylander for player X on the table in front of him has never been verified by a quality media source The rest is just folks falling for questionable clickbait

 

[Menzinger]

Would you let your wage be capped by someone better than you at another company that blatantly took less than what the labour market would yield? Or would you say "good for that guy, pay me what I'm worth"?

Kuch is far from the only example.of a blue chip winger earning less than 10 mil post elc though......

There are zero valid reasons why Marner should earn a dim more than Kane did for example, when adjusted for inflation

 

[Menzinger]

That would be clever... if it weren't for

Equal Kane 10.5m ( 5 years earlier)
Clear inferior Panarin 11.6
Clear inferior Skinner 9
Clear inferior Stone 9.5

In clear and certain terms- to believe that 9.5 is the top of the market for wingers is an admission of either stupidity or willful ignorance.

Kane's 10.5 contract ate up entirely ufa years and after he had proven to be a top 3 winger in the league.....

A better example is his post elc deal

 

[4thline]

@Menzinger ,

All I was doing was demonstrating that Kucherov's 9.5 shouldn't be taken at face value as his true value and as such a cap against which lesser players should be measured.

My own expectations are based on a scale using Kane and Panarin's 2nd contracts

 

[Menzinger]

All about team depth.

Last year Babcock felt very secure with a Marleau -- Kadri -- Nylander 3rd line to be used regularly at the expense of lines #1 and #2 overall TOI/g. That line used regularly allowed for him to create mismatches against the opposition via line matching and even more so at home with last change.

More ice time is often linked to equal more productivity automatically, but that is not necessarily true because less tired players on shorter shifts can be more effective because they have more energy than players that take longer shifts for the sake or more TOI/g but more coasting and conserving energy during shifts.

Now once Marner is signed to his $10 mil there will be a much larger talent gap between lines #1-2 and #3-4 by paying your own players and stars more money.

Leafs will have no choice by playing and taxing their top 6 more now because there is less talent and less trust in the bottom 2 lines to use regularly.

Essentially Leafs are moving from a top 9 more balanced ATOI/g last year to a Top 6 and Bottom 6 ATOI/g configuration this year due to cap spending and playing your haves more and your have nots less in a desire to win.

You will see Leafs stars now joining other teams marquee players in ice time not because of want necessarily but because of need. The benefit of a deeper team now lost in the process of a top heavy cap spending team due mostly in part to new contracts not new strategy.

Even with Marner signed this Leafs roster literally has better depth than last year at every position....

 

[Kiwi]

I'm curious to know this too.

Leafs currently $2,897,199 Over the cap (3.6%) can only go over by another $5,252,801. On capfriendly with a 22 man roster.

Maybe moving around some contracts works or something ?

Yes, what you do is trim the NHL roster to get as close to the 81.5M cap as possible and then you put Horton and Clarkson on LTIR

We can also sign Marner right now if we want to, we've got summer LTIR as well we could use to get it done

 

[PromisedLand]

I follow the Wild very closely since I live in the market. There's never been a serious speculation that Dumba has ever been considered tradbait the last several years. Any suggestion that he is was laughable and is not to be believed.

What's clear is that some teams inquired about Nylander during the fall-thats all. The notion that Dubas had a deal for Nylander for player X on the table in front of him has never been verified by a quality media source The rest is just folks falling for questionable clickbait

There never was a deal because Dubas flat out said he will not trade Nylander.

This is also mentioned in LeBrun’s tweet

 

[Arthur Morgan]

The battle continues between Mitch Marner's camp and the Toronto Maple Leafs and according to sources, the demands from Mitch's dad, Paul Marner appear to be getting out of hand.

Sources connected to the Maple Leafs have indicated, Paul Marner wants the exact same contract for his son, as Auston Matthews received from Kyle Dubas, but that's not where it ends. Talks include Marner's Dad demanding a letter for his son's jersey, especially if the team names Auston Matthews their new captain.

The Maple Leafs have played the past few seasons without a Captain, and it's down to either John Tavares, Morgan Rielly, or Auston Matthews, however, if Mitch Marner ends up with no letter on his jersey, his Dad has made it known his son will be looking to play else where.

First William Nylander, and now Mitch Marner, it appears Leafs GM, Kyle Dubas is getting used to dealing with controlling fathers.
.....

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

sources

Excuse me?

 

[TheOneArmedMan]

Com on Mitch Leaf Nation is waiting and watching. I keep checking week by week and still nothing....