Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - Less than 2 weeks to camp

[ACC1224]

The news that Marner is thinking about training in Zurich was interesting. Is that an indication he will miss the Leafs training camp and preseason games, or something else?

Got to wonder what the odds are now that he'll miss our training camp, and that we potentially have another Nylander situation on our hands i.e., misses the first 2 1/2 months of the season?

All part of the negotiating process.
Neither side has any desire for Marner to not be in camp.

 

[4thline]

So Marner would make the same aav regardless of whether it’s 4 years or 8 years? That’s what you’re saying? There is no difference between rfa years and ufa years?

That's not at all what I'm saying, and I don't know how you got that. Those were the cap hit percentages for those players on 2nd contracts (mainly RFA years) and 3rd contracts (mainly UFA). Similar percentages. It simply seems like the increase in their contracts had more to do with inflation than with RFA vs. UFA, because the % didn't change.

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

You're arguing for the player again. Why, as a Leafs fan, would you want him to get the best deal possible for him?

He's very pro Dubas. He can do no wrong apparently, and the contracts that he gave Nylander and Matthews (soon to be Marner) are all steals for the Leafs. Then he talks down from his pedestal to the majority of fans that says otherwise like were ignorant to question Dubas's GM ability.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

He'll either be signed by first pick drop or sit out the season (or be traded). Once the season starts, the Leafs won't have the cap space without dealing away someone significant like AJ or KK. That will only put them further away from contention.

That first sentence is pretty mangled. Agree with the idea that if MM is not signed before or as the season begins (got to wait to put players on LTIR), the Leafs cap situation is more difficult. Bottom line is that I hope the deal gets done, but its getting more interesting now and pressure is building.

 

[ULF_55]

Cap limit is dollar based on 23 man max roster limits. Only if you have less players sitting in the pressbox per game can you save cap space.

Leafs could still dress 12 forwards and give their stars an extra shift rotating in on 3rd and 4th lines and the Salary cap unaffected by the # of players you dress for a game.

I think the word "load management" is going to come into play as the more TOI/g the more taxing it is on a player and his body as the season progresses.. The Raptors playing out of the same building owned and operated by the same ownership just realized the value of winning a championship via star player Kawhi Leonard's 'load management ..

Making the playoffs only step one in the process and how much left in the tank when the playoffs start will be impacted by taxing your star players more during the regular season. That is why some teams do prefer deeper teams and using load management on their stars, keeping them fresher for the playoffs, when it really matters.

$1o mil Mitch is certainly able to jump on the ice with 4th liners Gauthier and Agostino for an extra shift a period, but between PP and PK and regular shift I say that strategy is likely to make Marner less effective during his other shifts, that its less likely something the coach would consider on a regular basis. Shortening the bench more something you see used late in games when trailing. IMO

The consequences on paying your stars more comes with the belief you now must play them more also to validate that investment cost, because the talent gap between the have and have nots now is greater as a result of paying your stars more.. However it comes at a player efficiency cost as the downside of both endurance and health.

Are we suggesting the Leafs best players are physically inferior to other star players?

I think they should earn their money.

Games played >= 50 forwards TOI

Marner 31st.
Tavares 44th.
Matthews 62nd.

 

[WTFMAN99]

@WTFMAN the thing is that all of those players are a clear step down than Kucherov, and Kucherov only has a singe RFA year included.

Kane cap adjusts to 12.4, Benn to 10.6, throw in Panarin at 11.6 and it's pretty clear that Kucherov is worth a lot more than 9.5.

For me the scale goes

7.5-7.9 x 3 (Panarin bridge + inflation +10% (premium for much higher platform year) / or Kane 2nd + inflation - 500k per year)
Don't offer 4
Don't offer 5
9-9.4 x 6
9.5-9.9 x 7
10-10.4 x 8

My guess is 10.2 x 6. An overpayment, but it we can afford it short term and gets us clear of JT's contract

Panarin bridge was 2 years though, so yea, you'd pay more for the 3rd year but I actually don't want anything to do with a 3 year, he can just go to arbitration, take the 1 year and go to UFA if he *really* wants to do.

Your other prices at 6,7 and 8 years seem proper to me although i'd nudge that extra 100k for 8 years at 10-10.5M

 

[4thline]

He's very pro Dubas. He can do no wrong apparently, and the contracts that he gave Nylander and Matthews (soon to be Marner) are all steals for the Leafs. Then he talks down from his pedestal to the majority of fans that says otherwise like were ignorant to question Dubas's GM ability.

Nylander was a 300-500k overpayment (fair range- 6.3-6.7)
Matthews was a 600k to 1m overpayment (fair range on 10.6-11)
Marner I predict will be a ~800k overpayment for the term we get.

Not signing Marner before Nylander is looking like a mistake.
Not getting a 6th year from Matthews was a mistake.
Not a single steal. Just a less than Komarov -> Moore swap in overpayment in order to keep an All-star team together.

Not so much pro Dubas as anti sensationalist negative dumbass.

 

[Ratboy]

If he sits it'll be another disaster like nylander. Not quite as bad as i suspect it might be easier for marner to get up to speed but a waste of time and season all the same.

This sucks all the fun out of the game.

 

[4thline]

Panarin bridge was 2 years though, so yea, you'd pay more for the 3rd year but I actually don't want anything to do with a 3 year, he can just go to arbitration, take the 1 year and go to UFA if he *really* wants to do.

Your other prices at 6,7 and 8 years seem proper to me although i'd nudge that extra 100k for 8 years at 10-10.5M

He could take a two year award from a two bridge as well. I just really like the cleanness of a three year bridge. Good solid window, and that arbitration/ QO option makes him very tradeable. If no deal is in place by the 3rd draft -> someone else's problem.

 

[Mess]

Coming out of an ELC, 10.5M x 8 years for Marner would actually be a pretty impressive pay day. It takes only 4 RFA years and 4 years of UFA.

Jack Eichel Buffalo's franchise #1C and drafted #2 overall signed for $10 mil X 8 years using 4 x RFA and 4 X UFA years @ [C.H.%

: 13.33]

Even if Leafs followed that identical strategy for Marner a winger (historically paid/valued less than #1C) and drafted after Eichel in the same draft class it would come out as;

$81.5 mil cap x [C.H.%

: 13.33] = $10.86 mil AAV X 8 years to adjust for cap inflation of signing 2 years later. [same 4 x RFA years and 4 x UFA years]

That should be the ceiling for any Marner negotiation and as you lose UFA years by shortening the term the $$ rate should decline in accordance to reflect less costly UFA years purchased by the team.

The goal and objective of any good GM is to purchase as many costly UFA years away from the player because then averaged out against the cost controllable cheaper RFA years it lowers the overall AAV so you decrease the Salary cap hit for the team to benefit from, as well as securing your asset longer.

AAV = Total $$ / Term

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Literally can't have another Nylander situation, he'd be playing with fire. Leafs don't have the cap to do the inflated 1st year cap hit this time around. If he isn't here at the start of the season and signed, very real possibility he isn't with the team this season....and kind of stupid since if he's going to play hockey overseas anyway, he might as well do it in the NHL and make good money.

Overseas threats always happen with Ferris though and never happen.

Agreed. See #154.

Bridge deal might happen. Its a compromise and both sides save face.

As an aside, I said $10.5 m X 6 years months ago. Sure, that's not a bridge deal, but given the push back received at the time, it doesn't look that far off now if Leafs are still wanting a longer term.

 

[MJ65]

Jack Eichel Buffalo's franchise #1C and drafted #2 overall signed for $10 mil X 8 years using 4 x RFA and 4 X UFA years @ [C.H.%

: 13.33]

Even if Leafs followed that identical strategy for Marner a winger (historically paid/valued less than #1C) and drafted after Eichel in the same draft class it would come out as;

$81.5 mil cap x [C.H.%

: 13.33] = $10.86 mil AAV X 8 years to adjust for cap inflation of signing 2 years later. [same 4 x RFA years and 4 x UFA years]

That should be the ceiling for any Marner negotiation and as you lose UFA years by shortening the term the $$ rate should decline in accordance to reflect less UFA years purchased.

True and they have to be very firm about it

 

[HoweHullOrr]

The news that Marner is thinking about training in Zurich was interesting. Is that an indication he will miss the Leafs training camp and preseason games, or something else?

Got to wonder what the odds are now that he'll miss our training camp, and that we potentially have another Nylander situation on our hands i.e., misses the first 2 1/2 months of the season?

All part of the negotiating process.
Neither side has any desire for Marner to not be in camp.

Yes, agreed. That's why I posed the question"or something else". Its getting more interesting now. Bridge deal maybe per #161.

 

[WTFMAN99]

He could take a two year award from a two bridge as well. I just really like the cleanness of a three year bridge. Good solid window, and that arbitration/ QO option makes him very tradeable. If no deal is in place by the 3rd draft -> someone else's problem.

I get what you're saying, I guess I like Marner enough that I would like to figure out something long term that keeps him a Leaf and avoids stupid negotiations for the forseeable future.

Jack Eichel Buffalo's franchise #1C and drafted #2 overall signed for $10 mil X 8 years using 4 x RFA and 4 X UFA years @ [C.H.%

: 13.33]

Even if Leafs followed that identical strategy for Marner a winger (historically paid/valued less than #1C) and drafted after Eichel in the same draft class it would come out as;

$81.5 mil cap x [C.H.%

: 13.33] = $10.86 mil AAV X 8 years to adjust for cap inflation of signing 2 years later. [same 4 x RFA years and 4 x UFA years]

That should be the ceiling for any Marner negotiation and as you lose UFA years by shortening the term the $$ rate should decline in accordance to reflect less costly UFA years purchased by the team.

Yeah, I see what you're saying, i'd still have to say no to something like 10.86 x8 years. I don't want to re-set the market.

Agreed. See #154.

Bridge deal might happen. Its a compromise and both sides save face.

As an aside, I said $10.5 m X 6 years months ago. Sure, that's not a bridge deal, but given the push back received at the time, it doesn't look that far off now if Leafs are still wanting a longer term.

10.5M x 6 would be a huge L for Dubas.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I'm not arguing either side, I'm arguing against ignorant opinions. I love the Leafs, I enjoy talking about the Leafs. Discussion poisoned by ill-informed expectations is less fun.

I have my expectations for 3 and 6 year deals based on Panarin's bridge and Kane's second contract. I'll be over the moon if the contract comes under them. I really hope they do. But I'm not going to convince myself that what I want is good expectation to have or argue a case for it.

About Panarin, show me the offer sheets that Marner got for that kind of money. He can't argue that Panarin is his comparable when there were multiple teams bidding for his services.

 

[WTFMAN99]

About Panarin, show me the offer sheets that Marner got for that kind of money. He can't argue that Panarin is his comparable when there were multiple teams bidding for his services.

Panarin's bridge with Chicago was 2 years at 6M or 8.22% of the cap.

 

[4thline]

About Panarin, show me the offer sheets that Marner got for that kind of money. He can't argue that Panarin is his comparable when there were multiple teams bidding for his services.

Panarin's bridge. Cap adjusts to 6.7 x 2. Marner outscored him significantly so add 10%, 7.37 x 2. Add 500k for per year beyond 2.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

10.5M x 6 would be a huge L for Dubas.

The loss of Marner would also not be great for Dubas. Returns for teams that are forced to trade their star players have often not been as good as initially imagined unfortunately.

The main point was that the number/term that I mentioned months ago doesn't look as far off as it did then (based on some reactions that it got, etc.). Seems like the prospects for a long term deal are diminishing as time slides by. Nylander 6 year, Matthews 5, Marner X ..........?

 

[ponder]

I must be missing something - isn’t it impossible for us to sign Marner until the season starts? My understanding is we can only go 10% over the cap in the offseason, and we can’t put guys on LTIR until the season starts. So we have to wait for the season to start, then put guys on LTIR, then sign Marner.

I’m guessing I have something wrong?

 

[Suntouchable13]

Panarin's bridge. Cap adjusts to 6.7 x 2. Marner outscored him significantly so add 10%, 7.37 x 2. Add 500k for per year beyond 2.

O I see. Sorry about that.

 

[HolyCrap]

Nylander was a 300-500k overpayment (fair range- 6.3-6.7)
Matthews was a 600k to 1m overpayment (fair range on 10.6-11)
Marner I predict will be a ~800k overpayment for the term we get.

Not signing Marner before Nylander is looking like a mistake.
Not getting a 6th year from Matthews was a mistake.
Not a single steal. Just a less than Komarov -> Moore swap in overpayment in order to keep an All-star team together.

Not so much pro Dubas as anti sensationalist negative dumbass.

This is a good post. Feel same way.

 

[WTFMAN99]

The loss of Marner would also not be great for Dubas. Returns for teams that are forced to trade their star players have often not been as good as initially imagined unfortunately.

The main point was that the number/term that I mentioned months ago doesn't look as far off as it did then (based on some reactions that it got, etc.). Seems like the prospects for a long term deal are diminishing as time slides by. Nylander 6 year, Matthews 5, Marner X ..........?

If you can't come to a reasonable contract, then the best course of action is to take no action at all. He'd sit.

If a 7-8 year deal can't be worked out, 2 year deal for now is fine.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Panarin bumped it up but Marner is RFA for 4 more years and Panarin got all UFA years of a contract bought up.

Interestingly enough the 22-27 5yr contract seems to have roughly equal cap% value to the 27-35 8yr contract, given the 5yr buys a few RFA years as well as the most expensive UFA year, and the 8yr buys a few decline years.

Of course somewhat dependent on if the player became substantially better between the signing of the 5yr and its expiry.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

1. If you can't come to a reasonable contract, then the best course of action is to take no action at all. He'd sit.

2. If a 7-8 year deal can't be worked out, 2 year deal for now is fine.

1. Sure, but it would still hurt the team & Dubas.

2. Agreed. As time goes by, the possibility of a bridge deal increases.

 

[Mess]

Yeah, I see what you're saying, i'd still have to say no to something like 10.86 x8 years. I don't want to re-set the market.

Agreed $10.86 mil X 8 would reset the RFA winger ceiling and would have to be upper most limit Leafs should go to get Marner signed and then swallow hard knowing they had to overpay to play.

Realistically Marner's price last summer was not Eichel's contract as a comparable but Draisaitl's $8.5 mil X 8 deal the one openly mentioned and discussed as his ask and eventual target.

Eichel deal +$2 mil per season was one comparable used in the Matthews contract negotiations not Marner.

Somewhere between last summer and now there seems to be a very large logical disconnect from reality here, and the only thing that changed is the Matthews contract coming in the middle.