Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - Less than 2 weeks to camp

[Dekes For Days]

Leafs draw among the fewest PP opportunities because they play a skating non physical game.

Teams based on speed and skill have historically been great at drawing penalties. There is zero reason for the Leafs to get this few PPs moving forward.

were cutting players to make cap space.

Cutting bad players that didn't contribute to us winning to add better players who also make less*

can you ice a Cup competitive team with 4 forwards consuming nearly 1/2 a teams salary cap.

There is zero reason to think they can't.

 

[ACC1224]

Even if the 9m rumour is true, which there is zero evidence of, there is absolutely nothing that supports that Marner's camp would have been willing to negotiate downward.

It's not a negotiation if you aren't willing to move from your number.
Source = common sense.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Would you let your wage be capped by someone better than you at another company that blatantly took less than what the labour market would yield? Or would you say "good for that guy, pay me what I'm worth"?

You can't really just throw away comparable's because you don't like them. Marner IS worth whatever the market says he is worth. No other team stepped up to offer sheet him...thus it proves his real value is closer to what the Leafs are offering than what he thinks.

Player agents try to do this all the time (throw the lower salary out as crazy and not applicable). When Draisitl was signed to, at the time, a ludicrous contract...teams couldn't say to the agents "Well, its Chiarelli who signed it...so it doesn't count when we are doing our comparables". That's not how things work. Just because Marner THINKS he is worth more..doesn't actually mean he IS worth more.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It's not a negotiation if you aren't willing to move from your number.

Sure it is. It's just one that's not going to go anywhere, and it didn't.

Beyond the complete lack of evidence that this 9m ask even existed, there is even less evidence (zero) that Marner was willing to negotiate that ask down. Such a ridiculous ask would suggest the opposite; that he didn't want to negotiate at all, and all evidence we have since supports that.

 

[4thline]

When push comes to shove, certain gm’s willing to pay over the curve doesn’t change the curve, it just changes our perception.

That would be clever... if it weren't for

Equal Kane 10.5m ( 5 years earlier)
Clear inferior Panarin 11.6
Clear inferior Skinner 9
Clear inferior Stone 9.5

In clear and certain terms- to believe that 9.5 is the top of the market for wingers is an admission of either stupidity or willful ignorance.

 

[4thline]

You can't really just throw away comparable's because you don't like them. Marner IS worth whatever the market says he is worth. No other team stepped up to offer sheet him...thus it proves his real value is closer to what the Leafs are offering than what he thinks.

Player agents try to do this all the time (throw the lower salary out as crazy and not applicable). When Draisitl was signed to, at the time, a ludicrous contract...teams couldn't say to the agents "Well, its Chiarelli who signed it...so it doesn't count when we are doing our comparables". That's not how things work. Just because Marner THINKS he is worth more..doesn't actually mean he IS worth more.

That really has nothing to do with my post. I was challenging the asinine idea that Kucherov's contract is a cap, indicative of Kucherov's worth, etc.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

That would be clever... if it weren't for

Equal Kane 10.5m ( 5 years earlier)
Clear inferior Panarin 11.6
Clear inferior Skinner 9
Clear inferior Stone 9.5

In clear and certain terms- to believe that 9.5 is the top of the market for wingers is an admission of either stupidity or willful ignorance.

All rfa's.

Not only is Kucherov substantially better at the moment, but his contract is ALL ufa years.

Speaking of curves... isn't there a pretty clear one set when it comes to rfa's making less than ufa's? Why isn't Aho's 8.5x5 in the equation?

Eichel's contract was clearly above the curve... yet it still set the new floor for where Matthews negotiations began. So I ask again... why do team friendly contracts "not count", yet player friendly contracts set the new floor for leaf negotiations?

It's all nonsense.

 

[Legion34]

All rfa's.

Not only is Kucherov substantially better at the moment, but his contract is ALL ufa years.

Speaking of curves... isn't there a pretty clear one set when it comes to rfa's making less than ufa's? Why isn't Aho's 8.5x5 in the equation?

Eichel's contract was clearly above the curve... yet it still set the new floor for where Matthews negotiations began. So I ask again... why do team friendly contracts "not count", yet player friendly contracts set the new floor for leaf negotiations?

It's all nonsense.

Remember the article that YOU posted. Which clearly showed there are distinct advantages to tax free states that CANNOT be covered by front loading?

You know exactly why comparing kucherov and stone to Marner is dumb.

Be consistent

 

[Mess]

It's not a negotiation if you aren't willing to move from your number.
Source = common sense.

Yup .. Negotiating 101 ..

One side starts high and the other starts low and both sides move towards the middle if the goal is get a competed deal.

If anything its management that presents a take it or leave it offer for a player, as they're the only side that offers a contract that can be signed.

If Marner isn't willing to come down and except a valid contract offer then his option is to continue on unsigned, while holding tight to his beliefs.

Dubas and the Leafs are in full control here of the process.

From reports Dubas has offered 3, 6 and 7 year term deals to Marner to consider and pick one and negotiate on the $$ figure at each term.

 

[4thline]

All rfa's.

Speaking of curves... isn't there a pretty clear one set when it comes to rfa's making less than ufa's? Why isn't Aho's 8.5x5 in the equation?

Actually for star level players there isn't. I've posted a list multiple times showing players that were top 5 picks that clearly emerged as stars on their ELC's and their 2nd vs. 3rd contracts in terms of cap percentage. There isn't really a consistent rule at the top end. The UFA - RFA difference is a composite of leverage, development, and inflation. For true stars the difference in leverage and development from UFA to RFA is much smaller.

And sure, Aho is a part of the equation. But so is the tidbit that Carolina was reportedly shocked and happy at how low the offersheet came in and were prepared to pay more.

I don't think you're ever going to be happy in these conversations because you're looking for structure/ rules / formulas that simply don't exist.

Player X is up for contract. Habs sign him for 8.5, Sabres would have given him 9, Canes 9.5, Avs also 9.5. What is he worth?

Player Y is player X's twin, Canes sign him for 9.5. Did they overpay? Or did the Habs get a good deal?


Also, show some work on how Eichel's contract was so clearly above the curve. 3-5 top 10 pick centres with comparable ELC's will do.

 

[Mess]

The ceiling was raise this summer as it is now 11 million per for a top winger.

Only if one considers an RFA player and a UFA player as equals (which they're not), where in one case his own team is the only one bidding for his services while in the other case its free market supply and demand allowing the highest bidder to set market prices.

The UFA procedure is inflationary by its process that is well known. Also why Leafs kids want as short of contracts as possible to eat up their cost controlled RFA years, so they can cash in big on their 3rd contracts as UFAs as soon as possible.

Even if Marner did have arbitration rights its stated clearly in the CBA that UFA contracts are not valid comparables for a RFA player to use for the exact reasons as above.

PS. Both Panarin and Tavares used the UFA process to maximize their earnings but also needed to switch teams to achieve it.. Marner has such an option as a RFA and its called an offersheet in the CBA, but then too if he wants more money/term than Leafs are willing to offer he might have to switch teams to achieve his demands.

Nowhere does it say Dubas is now obligated to pay Marner more because of Panarin or that the landscape has changed for resigning your own RFAs.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Remember the article that YOU posted. Which clearly showed there are distinct advantages to tax free states that CANNOT be covered by front loading?

You know exactly why comparing kucherov and stone to Marner is dumb.

Be consistent

Why do players want to go to tax free states if the tax advantage is ENTIRELY offset by a lower aav? You’ve never answered that one. Probably never will.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Actually for star level players there isn't. I've posted a list multiple times showing players that were top 5 picks that clearly emerged as stars on their ELC's and their 2nd vs. 3rd contracts in terms of cap percentage. There isn't really a consistent rule at the top end. The UFA - RFA difference is a composite of leverage, development, and inflation. For true stars the difference in leverage and development from UFA to RFA is much smaller.

And sure, Aho is a part of the equation. But so is the tidbit that Carolina was reportedly shocked and happy at how low the offersheet came in and were prepared to pay more.

I don't think you're ever going to be happy in these conversations because you're looking for structure/ rules / formulas that simply don't exist.

Player X is up for contract. Habs sign him for 8.5, Sabres would have given him 9, Canes 9.5, Avs also 9.5. What is he worth?

Player Y is player X's twin, Canes sign him for 9.5. Did they overpay? Or did the Habs get a good deal?


Also, show some work on how Eichel's contract was so clearly above the curve. 3-5 top 10 pick centres with comparable ELC's will do.

I simply don’t believe you. When Matthews and the rest become ufa’s you and your ilk will be here screaming about how ufa’s ALWAYS make far more than rfas.

If there is no difference in rfa/ufa years, then why is the number of ufa years an rfa signs for such s HUGE negotiation point?

The same people saying there is no difference between rfa/ufa years are the precise people saying the number of ufa years Marner signs for will increase his aav.

 

[WTFMAN99]

That would be clever... if it weren't for

Equal Kane 10.5m ( 5 years earlier)
Clear inferior Panarin 11.6
Clear inferior Skinner 9
Clear inferior Stone 9.5

In clear and certain terms- to believe that 9.5 is the top of the market for wingers is an admission of either stupidity or willful ignorance.

Kane had 2 Cups and a bunch of other stuff when he got 10.5M x 8 years

Panarin at 11.6M is a UFA
Skinner is an overpayment by Buffalo to keep a player...not exactly a hot bed...and UFA again
Stone is all UFA years again

UFA years are typically more expensive as you know.

Coming out of an ELC, 10.5M x 8 years for Marner would actually be a pretty impressive pay day. It takes only 4 RFA years and 3 years of UFA.

 

[Legion34]

Why do players want to go to tax free states if the tax advantage is ENTIRELY offset by a lower aav? You’ve never answered that one. Probably never will.

Huh? Because they still get the money? How have you not figured this out?

Hypothetical Stamkos says. Toronto offered me 11. Match it and I will stay

Tampa says. Well here. Toronto’s 11 is 8.5 here. We will match your take home pay. So you make the same money as you would there

We will take the 2.5 in cap and get a better team and give you a better chance to win.

Pretty simple. Sure the leafs could up it to 14 and it makes more sense to come to Toronto. But then Tampa could still match it for way less

Of course you are forgetting that even as Burke and many others I have quoted reported
There are ADDITIONAL tax benefits. Like being able to write off housing costs. Agent fees training camp etc that you CANNOT do in Canada.

But let’s just stick with the net pay.

 

[4thline]

I simply don’t believe you. When Matthews and the rest become ufa’s you and your ilk will be here screaming about how ufa’s ALWAYS make far more than rfas.

If there is no difference in rfa/ufa years, then why is the number of ufa years an rfa signs for such s HUGE negotiation point?

The same people saying there is no difference between rfa/ufa years are the precise people saying the number of ufa years Marner signs for will increase his aav.

2001 1st overall Kovalchuk 16.41 x 5 --> 14.2 x 10
2002 1st overall Nash- 13.85 x 5 --> 13.73 x 8
2003 2nd overall Staal 10.34 x 3 --> 14.55 x 7
2004 1st overall Ovechkin 16.82 x 13 --> N/A
2004 2nd overall Malkin 15.34 x 5 --> 14.77 x 8
2005 1st overall Crosby 17.3 x 5 --> 15.7 x 9
2006 3rd overall Toews 11.09 x 5 --> 15.22 x 8
2007 1st overall Kane 11.09 x 5 -->15.22 x 8
2008 1st overall Stamkos 11.66 x 5 --> 11.64x 8

Believe what you want. There's the list. Facts trump random CAPS USE.

I'm not saying there isn't a difference between RFA and UFA status. I'm saying it's not as simple as TSN represents it to the children at breakfast.

 

[4thline]

Kane had 2 Cups and a bunch of other stuff when he got 10.5M x 8 years

Panarin at 11.6M is a UFA
Skinner is an overpayment by Buffalo to keep a player...not exactly a hot bed...and UFA again
Stone is all UFA years again

UFA years are typically more expensive as you know.

Coming out of an ELC, 10.5M x 8 years for Marner would actually be a pretty impressive pay day. It takes only 4 RFA years and 3 years of UFA.

That whole line of discussion is about Kucherov and how non indicative it is of the market rate for the top winger in the game.

 

[Mess]

Yep. Give their top players one extra shift per period.

And Leafs players don't get tired on the PP anyway.

$10mmarner could easily play another shift per period.

Cap limit is dollar based not player based correct?

Cap limit is dollar based on 23 man max roster limits. Only if you have less players sitting in the pressbox per game can you save cap space.

Leafs could still dress 12 forwards and give their stars an extra shift rotating in on 3rd and 4th lines and the Salary cap unaffected by the # of players you dress for a game.

I think the word "load management" is going to come into play as the more TOI/g the more taxing it is on a player and his body as the season progresses.. The Raptors playing out of the same building owned and operated by the same ownership just realized the value of winning a championship via star player Kawhi Leonard's 'load management ..

Making the playoffs only step one in the process and how much left in the tank when the playoffs start will be impacted by taxing your star players more during the regular season. That is why some teams do prefer deeper teams and using load management on their stars, keeping them fresher for the playoffs, when it really matters.

$1o mil Mitch is certainly able to jump on the ice with 4th liners Gauthier and Agostino for an extra shift a period, but between PP and PK and regular shift I say that strategy is likely to make Marner less effective during his other shifts, that its less likely something the coach would consider on a regular basis. Shortening the bench more something you see used late in games when trailing. IMO

The consequences on paying your stars more comes with the belief you now must play them more also to validate that investment cost, because the talent gap between the have and have nots now is greater as a result of paying your stars more.. However it comes at a player efficiency cost as the downside of both endurance and health.

 

[Suntouchable13]

2001 1st overall Kovalchuk 16.41 x 5 --> 14.2 x 10
2002 1st overall Nash- 13.85 x 5 --> 13.73 x 8
2003 2nd overall Staal 10.34 x 3 --> 14.55 x 7
2004 1st overall Ovechkin 16.82 x 13 --> N/A
2004 2nd overall Malkin 15.34 x 5 --> 14.77 x 8
2005 1st overall Crosby 17.3 x 5 --> 15.7 x 9
2006 3rd overall Toews 11.09 x 5 --> 15.22 x 8
2007 1st overall Kane 11.09 x 5 -->15.22 x 8
2008 1st overall Stamkos 11.66 x 5 --> 11.64x 8

Believe what you want. There's the list. Facts trump random CAPS USE.

I'm not saying there isn't a difference between RFA and UFA status. I'm saying it's not as simple as TSN represents it to the children at breakfast.

You're arguing for the player again. Why, as a Leafs fan, would you want him to get the best deal possible for him?

 

[4thline]

You're arguing for the player again. Why, as a Leafs fan, would you want him to get the best deal possible for him?

I'm not arguing either side, I'm arguing against ignorant opinions. I love the Leafs, I enjoy talking about the Leafs. Discussion poisoned by ill-informed expectations is less fun.

I have my expectations for 3 and 6 year deals based on Panarin's bridge and Kane's second contract. I'll be over the moon if the contract comes under them. I really hope they do. But I'm not going to convince myself that what I want is good expectation to have or argue a case for it.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

The news that Marner is thinking about training in Zurich was interesting. Is that an indication he will miss the Leafs training camp and preseason games, or something else?

Got to wonder what the odds are now that he'll miss our training camp, and that we potentially have another Nylander situation on our hands i.e., misses the first 2 1/2 months of the season?

 

[WTFMAN99]

That whole line of discussion is about Kucherov and how non indicative it is of the market rate for the top winger in the game.

I would say lately it is about on par

Stone 9.5M x8
Kucherov 9.5M x8
Skinner 9M x8
Leon (he's tougher as a W/C) 8.5M x8(looks like a bargain now)

Kane went above at 10.5M x8 but UFA years....Benn at 9.5M x8...Ovechkin is about 9.5M but from so long ago and he's a generational type player and was locked up his entire career. Wheeler 8.25M...all ufa years. Kessel 8M all UFA years.

Panarin bumped it up but Marner is RFA for 4 more years and Panarin got all UFA years of a contract bought up.

I wouldn't be surprised if 10.5M x8 years is what the Leafs are offering Marner. I think 2, 7 and 8 years are likely the desired terms by the Leafs whereas Marner probably wants 4-5 years.

We'll see where this goes....frankly I am so tired of discussing it.

My 2 cents is 10.5M x 8 years is a pretty good contract for Marner or 10M x 7 years. I'd also be fine with a 2 year deal at 6.75M (Panarin bridge + inflation)

The news that Marner is thinking about training in Zurich was interesting. Is that an indication he will miss the Leafs training camp and preseason games, or something else? Got to wonder what the odds are now that he'll miss our training camp, and that we potentially have another Nylander situation on our hands i.e., misses the first 2 1/2 months of the season?

Literally can't have another Nylander situation, he'd be playing with fire. Leafs don't have the cap to do the inflated 1st year cap hit this time around. If he isn't here at the start of the season and signed, very real possibility he isn't with the team this season....and kind of stupid since if he's going to play hockey overseas anyway, he might as well do it in the NHL and make good money.

Overseas threats always happen with Ferris though and never happen.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

2001 1st overall Kovalchuk 16.41 x 5 --> 14.2 x 10
2002 1st overall Nash- 13.85 x 5 --> 13.73 x 8
2003 2nd overall Staal 10.34 x 3 --> 14.55 x 7
2004 1st overall Ovechkin 16.82 x 13 --> N/A
2004 2nd overall Malkin 15.34 x 5 --> 14.77 x 8
2005 1st overall Crosby 17.3 x 5 --> 15.7 x 9
2006 3rd overall Toews 11.09 x 5 --> 15.22 x 8
2007 1st overall Kane 11.09 x 5 -->15.22 x 8
2008 1st overall Stamkos 11.66 x 5 --> 11.64x 8

Believe what you want. There's the list. Facts trump random CAPS USE.

I'm not saying there isn't a difference between RFA and UFA status. I'm saying it's not as simple as TSN represents it to the children at breakfast.

So Marner would make the same aav regardless of whether it’s 4 years or 8 years? That’s what you’re saying? There is no difference between rfa years and ufa years?

 

[4thline]

@WTFMAN the thing is that all of those players are a clear step down than Kucherov, and Kucherov only has a singe RFA year included.

Kane cap adjusts to 12.4, Benn to 10.6, throw in Panarin at 11.6 and it's pretty clear that Kucherov is worth a lot more than 9.5.

For me the scale goes

7.5-7.9 x 3 (Panarin bridge + inflation +10% (premium for much higher platform year) / or Kane 2nd + inflation - 500k per year)
Don't offer 4
Don't offer 5
9-9.4 x 6
9.5-9.9 x 7
10-10.4 x 8

My guess is 10.2 x 6. An overpayment, but it we can afford it short term and gets us clear of JT's contract

 

[kb]

The news that Marner is thinking about training in Zurich was interesting. Is that an indication he will miss the Leafs training camp and preseason games, or something else?

Got to wonder what the odds are now that he'll miss our training camp, and that we potentially have another Nylander situation on our hands i.e., misses the first 2 1/2 months of the season?

He'll either be signed by first pick drop or sit out the season (or be traded). Once the season starts, the Leafs won't have the cap space without dealing away someone significant like AJ or KK. That will only put them further away from contention.