Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - Less than 2 weeks to camp

[The Hanging Jowl]

Hindsight is the PRECISE tool with which we assess if a GM did a good job or not.

Otherwise, every gm is tied for being the best gm EVER. I mean... pretty much every deal makes sense at the time. But we separate the good gm's from the bad based on those who had the foresight to make good decisions.

If you want to suggest that "good" gm's were just lucky... well... that's pretty silly as well.

Good gm's are those who, via hindsight, we see had good foresight. Bad gm's are those who, via hindsight, we see had horrible foresight.

We were discussing why Nylander had to be signed first. If hindsight has told us Marner was the superior player, that makes it even more critical that Nylander was signed first which actually looks good for Dubas.

When it comes to the leafs current young star situation... well... Dubas looks like a pretty ****ing big idiot. No matter how you slice it.

I guess I slice it differently because I don't agree at all. The only deal I'm not excited about is Matthews' and only because of the term. If they can sign Marner for $10M or less and for 6 years or more, I will be calling Dubas' negotiations an overall success.

 

[ACC1224]

I'd give him until Oct 2nd to sign or he never plays another game as a Leaf again. If we're forced to match an offersheet you trade him next year.

Contract gets signed. Ferris may or may not be retained.

Contract doesn't get signed at fair market value (at or around 10M X 6) ... no hard feelings enjoy your new team when we get around to trading you.

Safe to say they won't take such an old school approach.

 

[Marshy]

Safe to say they won't take such an old school approach.

No doubt.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Simply not the way it evolved.

I remember it evolving just like that and many people suggesting Marner needed to be signed last summer before he lit things up with Tavares. I also remember people saying there was no way Marner would do that.

It’s funny too, because we all saw Matthews with Nylander, so that was a saw off anyways. You’re acting like Mitch had some advantage.

Not really. I think Marner is a better player. I also know Tavares has a reputation of elevating his wingers' point totals so it was a perfect storm. Having Matthews as a line mate is probably comparable though.

Just to say it one more time, I only entered the discussion to point out that the team is probably better off overall cap-wise because they signed Nylander first. Giving Marner $9.5M-$10M last summer as was suggested in the first post I responded to, given Marner's numbers weren't off-the-charts better than Nylander's would have triggered Nylander demanding something similar since I guarantee his camp saw him as comparable to Marner last year.

 

[DarkKnight]

I remember it evolving just like that and many people suggesting Marner needed to be signed last summer before he lit things up with Tavares. I also remember people saying there was no way Marner would do that.



Not really. I think Marner is a better player. I also know Tavares has a reputation of elevating his wingers' point totals so it was a perfect storm. Having Matthews as a line mate is probably comparable though.

Just to say it one more time, I only entered the discussion to point out that the team is probably better off overall cap-wise because they signed Nylander first. Giving Marner $9.5M-$10M last summer as was suggested in the first post I responded to, given Marner's numbers weren't off-the-charts better than Nylander's would have triggered Nylander demanding something similar since I guarantee his camp saw him as comparable to Marner last year.

Fair enough, I’m just taking issue with your assertion it was divided last year who was superior, when pretty much everyone felt Marner would make more, the ultimate judgment on who’s perceived as more valuable.

I’ll ankle bite you no more

 

[Mess]

I would have. It was clear he grew a lot in his sophomore year... over the second half of the season and into the playoffs, he paced for 95 points.

Also, name the last 94 point winger to earn less than 10M on their next contract.

Kucherov the NHL's leading scorer put up 128 points and won the Hart and Art Ross trophies as leagues MVP and leading scorer and signed for 8 years and all of them at UFA rates years.

$9.5 mil X 8 years and his new contract starts this season.

How is this not the ceiling for all wingers particularly those that are still on RFA status?

FYI: There are only 10 skaters and 2 goalies total in the entire NHL that make $10 mil ore more AAV a season and most are elite C and or Dmen.

 

[Mess]

You don't give a guy $72 million over 8 years after a 20 goal, 69 point season (career high at that time).
Yes, he has raised his value since them. That's a good thing.
Too big of a long term gamble to give him that contract at that time. What if Marner regressed this past season like guys like Alex wennberg, Clayton Keller, Patrick Laine, etc...
Dubas played it just fine.
$72 million over 8 years is about what a 26 goal, 94 point rfa is worth now. If marner can't accept that, then he may have play out the season wherever the **** he is now in Europe.

I have no problem with that and that is the way one logically would see it playing out.

Marner begins the bidding with $9 mil X 8 and Dubas counters with $7.5 mil X 8 and so middle ground would have been the Draisaitl deal last summer of ~$8.5 mil X 8 had both sides continued to conclusion last summer. One side starts high the other counters low, and you meet somewhere in the middle to complete a successful transaction or basic playbook Negotiating 101.

However Dubas was not willing to go there (yet), because as you pointed out at that point Marner didn't have the stats to secure that deal (that contract would be based on future expected production) so Dubas allowed Marner to "prove it" first, and put him in a great position playing alongside Tavares all season to maximize his output allowing him to earn the deal he wanted.

So far everything is normal and on track in contract negotiations.

So as everyone in Leafland with Dubas included expected Marner put up his >PPG stats and "proved it" to Leafs management he was worth what he was asking for last summer.

Because of the exceptional statistical season Marner had, he is fully in his right to say "pay me my $72 mil ($9 mil AAV) for 8 years" and "I told you so".

Dubas likely could have gotten him for $8.5 mil per last summer but now that annual rate has gone up to $9 mil AAV on full term of 8 years. Dubas by waiting having cost the Leafs +$500k extra a year cap hit. But with Kucherov the NHL's top scoring winger just signing and coming in at $9.5 mil X 8 all those numbers for Marner are still inline with the market comparables.

Still everything is normal and on track as expected in contract negotiations.

However we're not at $72 mil over 8 years, we have gone from that to $10 mil x 3 and $11 mil X 5 as being reported. There is no logical nor reasonable path to get from point A to point B now.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Kucherov the NHL's leading scorer put up 128 points and won the Hart and Art Ross trophies as leagues MVP and leading scorer and signed for 8 years and all of them at UFA rates years.

$9.5 mil X 8 years and his new contract starts this season.

How is this not the ceiling for all wingers particularly those that are still on RFA status?

FYI: There are only 10 skaters and 2 goalies total in the entire NHL that make $10 mil ore more AAV a season and most are elite C and or Dmen.

Kuch signed his contract after putting up his best season ever as a 24yo, netting 100 points. The massive season last year is completely irrelevant much like what Pasta did after he signed.

Kuch didn't even play in the NHL until 20yo

At age 19 Marner vastly out produced a 20yo Kuch
At age 20 Marner out produced a 21 and 22yo Kuch
At age 21 Marner out produced a 23yo Kuch

Kuch at 24yo out produced a 21yo Marner by 6 points, and then signs that contract.

Toss in no state tax and it's pretty easy to understand. Might want to ask yourself what a 25yo Marner will be doing.

To me the only big difference is these RFAs want that big contract now..... and it's not just Mitch... seems like ALL of them are being the exact same. Guys like Pasta are an absolute gem. Wish he didn't play on Boston so I could love him more.

 

[ULF_55]

Kucherov the NHL's leading scorer put up 128 points and won the Hart and Art Ross trophies as leagues MVP and leading scorer and signed for 8 years and all of them at UFA rates years.

$9.5 mil X 8 years and his new contract starts this season.

How is this not the ceiling for all wingers particularly those that are still on RFA status?

FYI: There are only 10 skaters and 2 goalies total in the entire NHL that make $10 mil ore more AAV a season and most are elite C and or Dmen.

Centers and defenders seem to be quite important in Cup wins, but a Kane, Ovechkin or Guentzel who can score goals don't hurt.

Blues did it with goaltending, defense and timely scoring and Bozak as their 6th. leading scorer, 2nd. for centers.

I just don't know if the Leafs have enough talent on defense to win it all, and if you have 3 forwards, who aren't great defensively, making 40% of your cap ... perhaps the option is going with less skaters to stay under the cap and putting the money into the defense.

4th. line is really becoming a nice to have as the game moves into the no contact NBA style of play track meets.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Centers and defenders seem to be quite important in Cup wins, but a Kane, Ovechkin or Guentzel who can score goals don't hurt.

Blues did it with goaltending, defense and timely scoring and Bozak as their 6th. leading scorer, 2nd. for centers.

I just don't know if the Leafs have enough talent on defense to win it all, and if you have 3 forwards, who aren't great defensively, making 40% of your cap ... perhaps the option is going with less skaters to stay under the cap and putting the money into the defense.

4th. line is really becoming a nice to have as the game moves into the no contact NBA style of play track meets.

I think we'll see one of AJ or Kap + moved for more D

 

[kb]

I think we'll see one of AJ or Kap + moved for more D

After this season, I agree.

 

[4thline]

$9.5 mil X 8 years and his new contract starts this season.

How is this not the ceiling for all wingers particularly those that are still on RFA status?

Would you let your wage be capped by someone better than you at another company that blatantly took less than what the labour market would yield? Or would you say "good for that guy, pay me what I'm worth"?

 

[Mess]

Centers and defenders seem to be quite important in Cup wins, but a Kane, Ovechkin or Guentzel who can score goals don't hurt.

Blues did it with goaltending, defense and timely scoring and Bozak as their 6th. leading scorer, 2nd. for centers.

I just don't know if the Leafs have enough talent on defense to win it all, and if you have 3 forwards, who aren't great defensively, making 40% of your cap ... perhaps the option is going with less skaters to stay under the cap and putting the money into the defense.

4th. line is really becoming a nice to have as the game moves into the no contact NBA style of play track meets.

Elementary, my dear Watson, the game is afoot.

Herein lies the problem for our Leafs.

1st line: Johnsson ($3.4 mil) -- Matthews ($11.634 mil) -- Nylander ($6.96 mil) = $22 mil
2nd line: Hyman ($2.25 mil) -- Tavares ($11 mil) --- Marner @ (~$10 mil) = $23.25 mil

The salary cap is $81.5 mil and Leafs #1 and #2 lines consume $45.25 mil or 55.5% of the teams full spending.

A regulation NHL game is 60 minutes and even if lines #1 and #2 get 20 minutes ATOI/g each that still leaves an entire 2o minutes where lines #3 or #4 will be on the ice.

So when both AM and JT lines are on the bench resting between shifts we have only 44.5 % (remaining cap) which includes 2 forward lines, entire defense core and goaltending spending on the ice left to decide the outcome of the game.

When Marner is resigned Leafs will have 3 of the top 10-12 highest AAV players in the NHL all on the same team and when they're on the bench the game will be in the hands of the Leafs depth. Good teams with strong depth based on balancing out their cap spending will be able to exploit and take advantage of Leafs top heavy cap spending.

PS. During the Stanley Cup finals both the Blues and Bruins highest AAV player = $7.5 mil AAV, which would be the equivalent of Nylander essentially being the Leafs highest AAV player.

 

[ULF_55]

...

So when both AM and JT lines are on the bench resting between shifts we have only 44.5 % (remaining cap) which includes 2 forward lines, entire defense core and goaltending spending on the ice left to decide the outcome of the game.

When Marner is resigned Leafs will have 3 of the top 10-12 highest AAV players in the NHL all on the same team and when they're on the bench the game will be in the hands of the Leafs depth.

PS. During the Stanley Cup finals both the Blues and Bruins highest AAV player = $7.5 mil AAV, which would be the equivalent of Nylander essentially being the Leafs highest AAV player.

Bruins killed it on the PP, 32.4%, Leafs 18.8% ... covers up a lot of depth issues when you can win on special teams.

I think they can afford marner at 10, and just play with 1 less player.

3 set lines and 2 extra forwards for special teams, or giving gassed players a break.

It seems at times the coach throws out the 4th. line because they haven't played, not because the other 9 players can't go.

Evolve!

 

[18leafsfan18]

PS. During the Stanley Cup finals both the Blues and Bruins highest AAV player = $7.5 mil AAV, which would be the equivalent of Nylander essentially being the Leafs highest AAV player.

Your always making statements like this.

The cap goes up, you know this, everyone knows this.

Every core player on those teams was signed to their contracts at least 3 years ago (Except Pasternak, Parayko).

In 3 years when the Leafs forwards are no longer at the top of the cap hits in the league, the same will be true for them.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Elementary, my dear Watson, the game is afoot.

Herein lies the problem for our Leafs.

1st line: Johnsson ($3.4 mil) -- Matthews ($11.634 mil) -- Nylander ($6.96 mil) = $22 mil
2nd line: Hyman ($2.25 mil) -- Tavares ($11 mil) --- Marner @ (~$10 mil) = $23.25 mil

The salary cap is $81.5 mil and Leafs #1 and #2 lines consume $45.25 mil or 55.5% of the teams full spending.

A regulation NHL game is 60 minutes and even if lines #1 and #2 get 20 minutes ATOI/g each that still leaves an entire 2o minutes where lines #3 or #4 will be on the ice.

So when both AM and JT lines are on the bench resting between shifts we have only 44.5 % (remaining cap) which includes 2 forward lines, entire defense core and goaltending spending on the ice left to decide the outcome of the game.

When Marner is resigned Leafs will have 3 of the top 10-12 highest AAV players in the NHL all on the same team and when they're on the bench the game will be in the hands of the Leafs depth. Good teams with strong depth based on balancing out their cap spending will be able to exploit and take advantage of Leafs top heavy cap spending.

PS. During the Stanley Cup finals both the Blues and Bruins highest AAV player = $7.5 mil AAV, which would be the equivalent of Nylander essentially being the Leafs highest AAV player.

Tampa
1st line: Palat (5.3 mil) -- Stamkos (8.5 mil) -- Kuch (9.5 mil) = 23.3 mil
2nd line: Gourde (5.17 mil) -- Point @ (~9.0 mil) -- Johnson (5.0 mil) = 19.17 mil

= 42.47 mil or 52.1%

The leafs also don't pay 2 defencemen 7.875 mil and 6.75 mil = 14.62 mil
Leafs Top 4 = 16.25 mil

Nor do we pay a goalie 9.5 mil

 

[Dekes For Days]

Kucherov the NHL's leading scorer put up 128 points and won the Hart and Art Ross trophies as leagues MVP and leading scorer

After he signed his contract. This has been explained to you multiple times.

How is this not the ceiling for all wingers particularly those that are still on RFA status?

Because that's not how any of this works.

 

[Mess]

Bruins killed it on the PP, 32.4%, Leafs 18.8% ... covers up a lot of depth issues when you can win on special teams.

I think they can afford marner at 10, and just play with 1 less player.

3 set lines and 2 extra forwards for special teams, or giving gassed players a break.

It seems at times the coach throws out the 4th. line because they haven't played, not because the other 9 players can't go.

Evolve!

ES minutes are guaranteed while Specialty minutes are at the Refs discretion.. Leafs draw among the fewest PP opportunities because they play a skating non physical game.

Therefore on average the opposition gets more PP opportunities than the Leafs, so Leafs PK% better be strong. When Leafs stack their #1pp with Matthews and JT and Marner all on the ice that means they miss ES shifts all resting at the same time.. That only leaves your depth available to play.

After a Leafs unsuccessful PP going 1:20 TOI, the opposition tosses out Crosby, McDavid, Bergeron line. Ov etc fully rested against Leafs 3rd line & 2 extra forwards of Moore --Kerfoot --Kapanen & Spezza and Mikheyev .

In games where the opposition play lines #1 and #2 of the Leafs even in a game statistically, how many games will the Leafs win relying on 3rd line and 2 extra forwards?

There is going to be NO team in the NHL as top heavy cap spending as the Leafs with potentially 3 of the top 10 highest AAV skaters in the NHL all on the same team if Marner is getting $10 mil.

Besides Matthews, Marner and Tavares were already on last years team and they all had career years statistically, the only difference is instead of $12.85 mil cap usage they will now use up $32.6 mil, that +$20 mil extra cap comes at the expense of team depth that they had last year. How many extra goals and points are we expecting for our extra $20 mil cap hit? Leafs PP% not guaranteed better with the same players as last year.

94 point Marner last year at $875k is going to be pretty close to $10 mil Marner this year and $11 mil JT and his 47 goals is likely to also be the same this year etc. Its not like were adding new $10 and $11 mil players to last years team to expect improvement, we're subtracting players to make cap space.

Paying your own players more money doesn't make them better nor produce more necessarily, its the impact on the rest of the team as a result of their massive raises that we're about to see play out this year.

So the million dollar question will really come down to TEAM Building design and can you ice a Cup competitive team with 4 forwards consuming nearly 1/2 a teams salary cap.

PS. Just a foot note dressing and playing one guy less doesn't save any cap space, as its your full 23 man roster used for cap purposes. So I suppose your suggesting double shifting some of the big cap hit players throughout the line rotation by not dressing a full 4th line in a game.

 

[diceman934]

Safe to say they won't take such an old school approach.

Yeah. They will sign Marner and it will be fine.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Marner begins the bidding with $9 mil X 8 and Dubas counters with $7.5 mil X 8 and so middle ground would have been the Draisaitl deal last summer of ~$8.5 mil X 8 had both sides continued to conclusion last summer.

Even if the 9m rumour is true, which there is zero evidence of, there is absolutely nothing that supports that Marner's camp would have been willing to negotiate downward.

 

[diceman934]

Kucherov the NHL's leading scorer put up 128 points and won the Hart and Art Ross trophies as leagues MVP and leading scorer and signed for 8 years and all of them at UFA rates years.

$9.5 mil X 8 years and his new contract starts this season.

How is this not the ceiling for all wingers particularly those that are still on RFA status?

FYI: There are only 10 skaters and 2 goalies total in the entire NHL that make $10 mil ore more AAV a season and most are elite C and or Dmen.

The ceiling was raise this summer as it is now 11 million per for a top winger.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Look up the concept of willingness to pay and its role in establishing market curves, get back to us.

All that matters is what teams (in aggregate) are willing to pay to players. When push comes to shove certain players signing under the curve doesn't change the curve, it just changes our perception.

When push comes to shove, certain gm’s willing to pay over the curve doesn’t change the curve, it just changes our perception.

 

[ULF_55]

ES minutes are guaranteed while Specialty minutes are at the Refs discretion.. Leafs draw among the fewest PP opportunities because they play a skating non physical game.

Therefore on average the opposition gets more PP opportunities than the Leafs, so Leafs PK% better be strong. When Leafs stack their #1pp with Matthews and JT and Marner all on the ice that means they miss ES shifts all resting at the same time.. That only leaves your depth available to play.

After a Leafs unsuccessful PP going 1:20 TOI, the opposition tosses out Crosby, McDavid, Bergeron line. Ov etc fully rested against Leafs 3rd line & 2 extra forwards of Moore --Kerfoot --Kapanen & Spezza and Mikheyev .

In games where the opposition play lines #1 and #2 of the Leafs even in a game statistically, how many games will the Leafs win relying on 3rd line and 2 extra forwards.

There is going to be NO team in the NHL as top heavy cap spending as the Leafs with potentially 3 of the top 10 highest AAV skaters in the NHL all on the same team if Marner is getting $10 mil.

Besides Matthews, Marner and Tavares were already on last years team and they all had career years statistically, the only difference is instead of $12.85 mil cap usage they will now use up $32.6 mil, that +$20 mil extra cap comes at the expense of team depth that they had last year. How many extra goals and points are we expecting for our extra $20 mil cap hit?

94 point Marner last year at $875k is going to be pretty close to $10 mil Marner this year and $11 mil JT and his 47 goals is likely to also be he same this year etc.

Paying your own players more money doesn't make them better nor produce more necessarily, its the impact on the rest of the team as a result of their massive raises that we're about to see play out this year.

PS. Just a foot note dressing and playing one guy less doesn't save any cap space, as its your full 23 man roster used for cap purposes. So I suppose your suggesting double shifting some of the big cap hit players throughout the line rotation by not dressing a full 4th line in a game.

Yep. Give their top players one extra shift per period.

And Leafs players don't get tired on the PP anyway.

$10mmarner could easily play another shift per period.

Cap limit is dollar based not player based correct?

 

[Dekes For Days]

The salary cap is $81.5 mil and Leafs #1 and #2 lines consume $45.25 mil or 55.5% of the teams full spending.

You don't know that Johnsson will be up there, and even still, you're pretending this is more outrageous than it is. That is not an unreasonable amount.

When Marner is resigned Leafs will have 3 of the top 10-12 highest AAV players in the NHL all on the same team

Yeah, because we have some of the best players in the world and they all just signed within the last year.

Good teams with strong depth based on balancing out their cap spending will be able to exploit and take advantage of Leafs top heavy cap spending.

Except there are few if any teams that can match the Leaf's depth. You incorrectly assume that expensive bottom 6 = better bottom 6. Dubas has been great at signing his secondary scoring to good value deals and finding value in UFA for cheap.

 

[WTFMAN99]

You don't know that Johnsson will be up there, and even still, you're pretending this is more outrageous than it is. That is not an unreasonable amount.


Yeah, because we have some of the best players in the world and they all just signed within the last year.


Except there are few if any teams that can match the Leaf's depth. You incorrectly assume that expensive bottom 6 = better bottom 6. Dubas has been great at signing his secondary scoring to good value deals and finding value in UFA for cheap.

I want to highlight this last part particularly.

The bottom 6 at times was stupidly overpaid with guys like Brown, Martin, Marleau or guys that are 3rd pairing defenseman like Zaitsev were making a lot.

Dubas did do great in trimming the fat. Do we know how other lesser adds will perform like Shore, Spezza, Agostino etc? No. If they can give you 50% of what those other players did at a fraction of the cost then it's probably fine.