Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - Less than 2 weeks to camp

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hector morrison

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The only one who doesn't understand market value is Dubas
I guess Shanny doesn't understand either? Or all the big money men that run MLSE...they're all just dolts? ...."market Value" ? Any idea what that really is? I think you don't,nor do most fans!

Any fan that believes Auston Matthews wouldn't be offered more money to play elsewhere is naive. Willy is already starting to look like a bargain in comparison to recent signings. Dubas has allowed us to continue to watch these young stars ...who cares about the money...it isn't your money...is it?
 
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biotk

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once the games started and he continues to put up points and do those Marner things?....No ,I don't think his 'brand' would be affected.

And what if once the games start he doesn't continue to put up points? It wasn't that long ago that he started a season with 2 goals and 20 points in 34 games. I know that many on here think that Marner is immune to such things, and that is sky high oiSH will just continue, just like last summer they thought that he a human cheat code on the PP and would always be at the top of the league with the man advantage.
 

IPS

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And what if once the games start he doesn't continue to put up points? It wasn't that long ago that he started a season with 2 goals and 20 points in 34 games. I know that many on here think that Marner is immune to such things, and that is sky high oiSH will just continue, just like last summer they thought that he a human cheat code on the PP and would always be at the top of the league with the man advantage.
I'll confess where I was wrong

JVR was a much bigger part of that PP than I thought. That man does incredible work front of the net with the man advantage.
 
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hector morrison

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And what if once the games start he doesn't continue to put up points? It wasn't that long ago that he started a season with 2 goals and 20 points in 34 games. I know that many on here think that Marner is immune to such things, and that is sky high oiSH will just continue, just like last summer they thought that he a human cheat code on the PP and would always be at the top of the league with the man advantage.
I'd take the bet he has at least as good a year as last ...if you're squeamish about paying players who have already proven what they can do,then even being an 'armchair GM' isn't for you!
 
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ORRFForever

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Anyway, getting back to Marner...

I think he will sign in the coming weeks. At least I hope so.
 

hector morrison

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Toronto paid him at the top end of his pay range.

Would Arizona match anything Toronto offers?... yes, probably.
His 'pay range"...the hell is that? If Auston wasn't signed ,I would be shocked if an offer sheet didn't come...No way Dubas takes that risk.The amount isn't as important as some make it out to be. He is here,for 5 years.Enjoy having to watch what might be the best Leaf player or possibly the best Leaf era in a long time!
 

biotk

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I'd take the bet he has at least as good a year as last ...if you're squeamish about paying players who have already proven what they can do,then even being an 'armchair GM' isn't for you!

Lots of players never again match the numbers they put up during a great season they had around Marner's age. His production could staal.
 

hector morrison

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Lots of players never again match the numbers they put up during a great season they had around Marner's age. His production could staal.
But the possibility of him having a poor season isn't in the high percentage range(in my view). Not enough for me to bet against it...what has changed from last year?
 
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Cleetus

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I guess Shanny doesn't understand either? Or all the big money men that run MLSE...they're all just dolts? ...."market Value" ? Any idea what that really is? I think you don't,nor do most fans!

Any fan that believes Auston Matthews wouldn't be offered more money to play elsewhere is naive. Willy is already starting to look like a bargain in comparison to recent signings. Dubas has allowed us to continue to watch these young stars ...who cares about the money...it isn't your money...is it?

wow coming off 27 points, yet to play a game this year and he is a bargain at 7 wow ok.
 

mouser

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I must be missing something - isn’t it impossible for us to sign Marner until the season starts? My understanding is we can only go 10% over the cap in the offseason, and we can’t put guys on LTIR until the season starts. So we have to wait for the season to start, then put guys on LTIR, then sign Marner.

I’m guessing I have something wrong?

I think you are right, and it was all laid out when we traded for Clarkson. Im not 100% sure but I think trading for Clarkson means there is no benefit gained unless we sign marner on the opening night and not before.

As I say I stand to be corrected on this, but its something like that
I'm curious to know this too.

Leafs currently $2,897,199 Over the cap (3.6%) can only go over by another $5,252,801. On capfriendly with a 22 man roster.

Maybe moving around some contracts works or something ?

The Leafs are projected to be $2.9m over the regular season cap by CF. Keep in mind that includes assumptions about which players will be on the day 1 roster that might be incorrect. Plus it includes projections of players definitely going on LTIR and their replacements.

During the summer the cap is increased by 10%. It’s not technically correct to say “teams can go 10% over the cap in the summer” because the summer cap includes players that may not make the day 1 regular season roster. For example: all 1-way contracts are included, and all 2-way players are included based on the % of time they were on the roster the previous season.

I don’t have my notes handy, but iirc last time I looked at the Leafs they were approximately $3.5m under the summer $89.65m cap.

Teams can use LTIR in the summer, exactly the same as the regular season. Meaning the Leafs could activate $10.5m-$13.6m in LTIR space right now depending on whether Dermott and Hyman are eligible to go on LTIR during the summer. That’s more then enough space to sign Marner or match an Offer Sheet. Of course the Leafs really don’t want to dip into the Hyman/Dermott relief space because they’re not gone for the season.

When projected to be over the regular season cap as the Leafs are, teams have two options to become compliant:

a) Get below the cap before day 1, then use LTIR to make space on day 1
b) Be over the cap before day 1 and use LTIR on the last day of training camp to enter the season cap compliant.

The formulas for how much cap space is freed up via (a) or (b) differs and can be complicated. I can only recommend looking at the CF FAQ’s, there are too many variables in play that I can’t predict what’s optimal for the Leafs right now.

Having said that, if the Leafs have a deal agreed upon with Marner they could probably sign him now and exercise option (b) without losing much if any cap relief over option (a).
 
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biotk

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But the possibility of him having a poor season isn't in the high percentage range(in my view). Not enough for me to bet against it...what has changed from last year?

Whether or not Marner has a poor season is probably in the eye of the beholder.

Many on here think that he is going to go up. So for them I would have to assume that if he fails to exceed last years totals then it is a poor season. Certainly if he was to, say, only get 80 points in 82 games that would seem to have to be considered a poor season by those people.

I think that it is 50/50 that he ever exceeds 94 points, so for me if he only got 80 points it would be in the range (albeit the lower end of the range) that I expect him get.

Contract, of course will come into play. We don't yet know what Marner's will be. Matthews signed 11.634x5. With that kind of money I expect him to score 50 goals. If he fails to hit 40, I would consider it a poor season. Nylander needs to hit at least 65 for me not to consider it a poor season.
 

hector morrison

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Whether or not Marner has a poor season is probably in the eye of the beholder.

Many on here think that he is going to go up. So for them I would have to assume that if he fails to exceed last years totals then it is a poor season. Certainly if he was to, say, only get 80 points in 82 games that would seem to have to be considered a poor season by those people.

I think that it is 50/50 that he ever exceeds 94 points, so for me if he only got 80 points it would be in the range (albeit the lower end of the range) that I expect him get.

Contract, of course will come into play. We don't yet know what Marner's will be. Matthews signed 11.634x5. With that kind of money I expect him to score 50 goals. If he fails to hit 40, I would consider it a poor season. Nylander needs to hit at least 65 for me not to consider it a poor season.
The big picture is this..... None of those contracts mean anything ! the only thing that matters is playoff success,which for most fans means 2nd round...I'm setting the bar higher. I don't want to hear excuses from some of the highest paid players in the history of the game, as to why they didn't get it done! Season points are merely a sideshow that sucks in the fans...fun but meaningless.I think a GM should be able to sense a players 'desire factor',anyone can spot talent. the plan appears to be to keep these kids together and still ice a Cup contender...not easy,but Dubas has one more to go...I bet he gets it done!
 
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Cleetus

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Maybe try reading the entire statement....you know for a full understanding! Or don't!
yea he is still paid 7 million, what other forward compares to this being a bargain? where is the comparable? how do you figure this is a bargain compared to what other contracts? 27 points for 7 million a year
 
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hector morrison

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Apr 1, 2018
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yea he is still paid 7 million, what other forward compares to this being a bargain? where is the comparable? how do you figure this is a bargain compared to what other contracts? 27 points for 7 million a year
This is likely a waste of my time...but what the hell! Recent example would be Kevin Hayes at 7 year/ 50 M...I take Willy all day ,every day...there are other examples with varying amounts and varying caliber of player that all seem to be trending upward(like usual in any successful business) ....but if you truly believe he is only a 27 point a year player then perhaps you disagree. I doubt you or anyone else can think Willys first 2 years in the league at 61 points was a fluke and that last season is going to be the norm going forward....I say as time goes on,he will be a bargain.
 
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