Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - 1 week to camp ... nothing

[Ziggdiezan]

Or not..

ES P/GP at time of signing, all ELC years (adjusted to an average 15:00 ES TOI/GP):

Marner - 0.64
Point - 0.59
Rantanen - 0.53

ES P/GP at time of signing, 2nd and 3rd ELC years only (adjusted to an average 15:00 ES TOI/GP):

Marner - 0.68
Point - 0.64
Rantanen - 0.62

ES P/GP at time of signing, 3rd ELC year only (adjusted to an average 15:00 ES TOI/GP):

Marner - 0.80
Point - 0.70
Rantanen - 0.65

I'm confused, why aren't you just using p/60 instead of using point per game then doing some sort of adjustment to an average of 15 mins of ES time? Seems really odd

 

[Nineteen67]

I can only think Columbus and he is rumoured to have turned them down. If he wants to be the highest paid on his team, you can rule out many teams. If he really wants to be here why is 10x8 not enough ?? I can only think of two things. Ego and greed.

8 yrs is a ridiculous time frame for a young hockey player, especially with the CBA expiring during that time frame.
This contract will set him up nicely so he can take the chance.

 

[ToneDog]

I don't believe he wants 8 years.

As has been reported but pretty sure Dubas has made comparable shorter term offers. AAV should come in lower for a shorter term deal and leave some room for an add or two at the TDL, yet here were are. Marner has built more credit with the fans than Nylander, but the longer this goes, the more credit he is using up.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I would take Marner over those two but can see why some others wouldn't.

I wonder what the feeling toward Dubas will be if Marner is paid more than those two?

All 3 are really really good players. But Point carries Tampa not Kuch. Kuch scores more yes but Point carries the play and is a 2 way stud centre. Everyone who follows Tampa says he is the straw that stirs the drink.
Mitch like Kuch has unbelievable scoring ability and offensive instincts. but Tavares and Matty are the straws that stir the drink here.
I still say Kuch a little better than Mitch. So discount Kuch salary a little and then add state tax considerations and I still see him getting approx. 10.5M for 6 years. If he ultimately won't settle for anything less than 11.5M for 5 years then he will start season on the sidelines. But I don't think that will be the case. Paul might say Mitch is worth Matty money for negotiation purposes with media but in his heart he knows. He is a little over the top and dramatic from day 1 i met him many years ago but he knows.

 

[ToneDog]

8 yrs is a ridiculous time frame for a young hockey player, especially with the CBA expiring during that time frame.
This contract will set him up nicely so he can take the chance.

Sure he wants shorter term, so how much is enough ?? 7,8,9, 10 ?? Surely they should have been able to meet somewhere that makes both sides happy.

 

[ACC1224]

As has been reported but pretty sure Dubas has made comparable shorter term offers. AAV should come in lower for a shorter term deal and leave some room for an add or two at the TDL, yet here were are. Marner has built more credit with the fans than Nylander, but the longer this goes, the more credit he is using up.

Not sure what's going on in the negotiation.
Nothing to worry about yet, still a few more weeks.
I don't see why fans would be upset in the least at this point.

 

[Dekes For Days]

When did I say that?

Say what?

 

[supermann_98]

I doubt that very much

Nobody will pay what he wants AND give up the four 1st rounders, that has been established and is indisputable

 

[ACC1224]

Nobody will pay what he wants AND give up the four 1st rounders, that has been established and is indisputable

ok

 

[ToneDog]

Not sure what's going on in the negotiation.
Nothing to worry about yet, still a few more weeks.
I don't see why fans would be upset in the least at this point.

Pretty sure Leafs did not want a repeat of the Nylander saga with Marner, and as such should have been motivated to get a deal done sooner than later, yet here we are which points the finger at Marner for a deal not getting done already (IMO).

 

[Mess]

Who is willing to pay Marner Matthews money and willing to trade for him ?? All I hear are crickets.

All other unsigned RFAs including Marner are apparently waiting on Dubas here to go first, so they can go afterwards as that contract sets the the new salary cap ceiling. This appears to be the cause of the contract holdups around the NHL.

Easy solution here where a trade solves everything ..

Step #1
Marner to the Lightning --> Point to the Avs --> Ratanten to the Leafs

Step #2
Marner in TB can't ask for Matthews money, if he is no longer his teammate, as he would be capped by new teammates Kucherov making $9.5 mil X 8 and Stamkos making $8.5 mil X 8 years. Now those are his new internal comparables and since he has less points not more than both, his asking price is no longer as the team highest scorer.

So after Marner signs for the Stamkos/Draisaitl deals [$8.5 mil X 7] in TB (which were last summers #s), and is the current fair market value price. Then Avs get Point and Leafs get Rantanen under contract for $8.5 mil or less in short order thereafter, now that pecking order and ceiling has been established.

Step #3
Marner to the Leafs --> Point to the Lightning--> Ratanten to the Avs

 

[Dekes For Days]

IIRC both PPs were bad after Nylander returned. Kadri did not help by missing so many chances but their #1 PP was too predicable the second half of the season.

It wasn't bad. It just wasn't super amazing like we had gotten used to, and we got so few that we placed a lot of emphasis on each one. Small sample sizes aren't great to judge on, especially on the PP where it is already a small sample size.

Every PP Marner has been on in his career has posted good numbers, and he is a main driver of the PP, as opposed to Point and Rantanen. He individually has posted better PP numbers than any of the other RFAs.

 

[SprDaVE]

Pretty sure Leafs did not want a repeat of the Nylander saga with Marner, and as such should have been motivated to get a deal done sooner than later, yet here we are which points the finger at Marner for a deal not getting done already (IMO).

It's been said the Leafs are aggressively trying to get this done with Marner. Some other teams have barely talked to their own player(s).

I would agree that the prolongation of this is definitely a lot more from Marners camp taking their time.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Sure he wants shorter term, so how much is enough ?? 7,8,9, 10 ?? Surely they should have been able to meet somewhere that makes both sides happy.

If Shanny has entered the negotiations it is only because Dubie got rolled over by Willy last summer. But I don't think that is true. I think what Shanny wanted to do at start of negotiations was ensure nothing from either side hit the media. and that is what has occurred. There are a lot of people like Dreger speculating on things here. Paul is saying nothing to his friends. The Leafs side is saying nothing. I can't believe Dreger has an insight into the agent. What may be happening is other NHL team execs trying to get Mitch may be leaking some stuff to Dreger. But I think that is even a stretch. and even that would be 3rd hand info.
What I believe is Paul will not want to lose a big paycheck. He is a drama king but no dummy. I think it may go down where he makes a final offer in between the 2 sides positions like he did last summer.

 

[Fogelhund]

SO he signs Thursday next week? We should start a poll.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Leafs PP was no way near as good as it could have been.

This is again, mainly because of the horrible 2nd PP. The 1st PP did well.

As we all know it became predictable and easier to defend mostly due Apolo’s inability to shoot the puck.

This is your assumption and opinion. It's not really substantiated by anything.

BTW, when did I say the stuff about bounces etc that you quoted me as saying? You should edit that.

I have no idea what you're talking about.

 

[Mess]

I think the problem is he isn't worth the picks.

Not if you trade for him, then OS comp picks are irrelevant.

 

[ACC1224]

Pretty sure Leafs did not want a repeat of the Nylander saga with Marner, and as such should have been motivated to get a deal done sooner than later, yet here we are which points the finger at Marner for a deal not getting done already (IMO).

I'm sure both sides are motivated to have something done, "if you have time use it".

 

[supermann_98]

ok

The proof is in the pudding as they say, since no offer sheet has come across Ferris’ desk

 

[ACC1224]

All other unsigned RFAs including Marner are apparently waiting on Dubas here to go first, so they can go afterwards as that contract sets the the new salary cap ceiling. This appears to be the cause of the contract holdups around the NHL.

Easy solution here where a trade solves everything ..

Step #1
Marner to the Lightning --> Point to the Avs --> Ratanten to the Leafs

Step #2
Marner in TB can't ask for Matthews money, if he is no longer his teammate, as he would be capped by new teammates Kucherov making $9.5 mil X 8 and Stamkos making $8.5 mil X 8 years. Now those are his new internal comparables and since he has less points not more than both, his asking price is no longer as the team highest scorer.

So after Marner signs for the Stamkos/Draisaitl deals [$8.5 mil X 8] in TB (which were last summers #s), and is the current fair market value price. Then Avs get Point and Leafs get Rantanen under contract for $8.5 mil or less in short order thereafter, now that pecking order and ceiling has been established.

Step #3
Marner to the Leafs --> Point to the Lightning--> Ratanten to the Avs

No team will make these trades without deals in place first.

 

[ACC1224]

The proof is in the pudding as they say, since no offer sheet has come across Ferris’ desk

Is he sitting at his desk now?

 

[ULF_55]

No team will make these trades without deals in place first.

I'd speculate the Lightning wouldn't give up a centerman for an equal winger who wants $3mm more than the league MVP.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I'd speculate the Lightning wouldn't give up a centerman for an equal winger who wants $3mm more than the league MVP.

Stammer pitches dealer cars in Tampa to a lot of canadians. Kuch has crickets. Mitch would get NOTHING. Also why would Tampa give up its best player for our 3rd best guy? Makes no sense to me. They are the 1st place team. We are the 3rd place team.

 

[Notsince67]

Not even debatable, a 41 goal 92 point C is > 26g 94 p Winger all day every day. Point has 2 30 goal seasons and an 18 and marner has 2 20 goal season and a 19.

Rantanen is a more debatable, very similar ppg but isn't the old saying "when all else is equal go with size"? Also has a 30 goal season and a 29.

Goals>points easily makes point ahead of marner, and becomes debatable with ranta. It can easily be argued marner is 3rd best of the RFA's, id put him 2nd but if someone had him 3rd it wouldn't be an insult

It would help if you saw Point play more than 4 games all year before you made such a proclamation.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I'm confused, why aren't you just using p/60 instead of using point per game then doing some sort of adjustment to an average of 15 mins of ES time? Seems really odd

For one, because people have a weird bias against P/60, for reasons they cannot justify. I (and others) have already posted P/60 numbers for them in the past. Also, P/60 numbers aren't as readily available, and many places that have it, don't split it up between ES and PP, or don't have previous years, or don't allow you to see multiple years at the same time, or don't allow you to see where they stand at certain points mid-season, etc. I used NHL.com, because they're great for everything except P/60.

This is also part of a bigger evaluation where I looked at historical players as well, and I already had to do manual adjustments for that. I adjusted to 15:00 ES TOI/GP because most players of this caliber hover somewhere around there. It essentially says the same thing as ES P/60, just in a different format.

ELCs:

ES:

Matthews: ES 2.60p/60, 2.29p1/60
Marner: ES 2.33p/60, 1.90p1/60
Point: ES 2.20p/60, 1.77p1/60
Aho: ES 2.00p/60, 1.52p1/60
Connor: ES 2.00p/60, 1.60p1/60
Rantanen: ES 1.98p/60, 1.44p1/60
Laine: ES 1.86p/60, 1.57p1/60
Meier: ES 1.92p/60, 1.48p1/60

PP:

Marner: PP 7.02p/60, 4.59p1/60
Matthews: PP 6.31p/60, 4.90p1/60
Rantanen: PP 5.67p/60, 4.20p1/60
Laine: PP 5.31p/60, 4.40p1/60
Point: PP 5.79p/60, 3.44p1/60
Aho: PP 5.07p/60, 3.47p1/60
Meier: PP 3.49p/60, 3.29p1/60
Connor: PP 3.71p/60, 2.73p1/60

It's hard with both P/60 and P1/60 (ie. Marner has better PP P/60, but Matthews has better PP P1/60), but I ranked them as best as I could there.

As we can see, Matthews and Marner rank #1 and #2 among these RFAs in ES P/60, ES P1/60, PP P/60, and PP P1/60.

I unfortunately don't have Tkachuk and Boeser on hand, but I see no evidence they would place anywhere significant on this list.