Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - 1 week to camp ... nothing

[jrgtml67]

What situation? The Leafs have like 10+ million to pay Marner with.

Even if things were tighter and we had to dump Johnsson or Kapanen or someone to make it all fit, we still have Tavares which is way better.

If we see a trade of any roster players that would signify that the next news would be Marner signed. I haven't done the math but Horton and Clarkson will

 

[jrgtml67]

With Horton and Clarkson on LTIR we have a little over 10 million available for Marner. We have the space to sign Marner, he and his agent are just using the whole summer to negotiate the highest salary possible. There's no problem here at all, never mind a problem so big that it makes signing Tavares a mistake.

Signing a top 5 or 6 center to 11 mill when he turned down a couple mill more to play here is far from a mistake. If any mistake was made it was Nylander dragging on because the rumor was or is Marner asked for 8.7 or 8.5 or 7yrs. But without having Nylanders number set and I guess AM as well Dubas didn't pull the trigger.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The 2-2.5m was overpay, just as described in the next sentence. Use the thinking cap. 3 years meaning bringing it up to 8y 11.6m which would be OK.

No offence but if that's what you're using, I think I'll pass.

 

[Leafs87]

3 year 9.5 will suck. From now on all our contracts will suck and our internal cap is set way too high. I love Mitch as a player for sure but 9.5 is his cap over 7/8 years not 3. Dubas and co really screwed up every contract signing for the big 3 somehow. Either term, time it took to sign or cap hit. In this case a healthy mix of all 3

 

[Legion34]

His contract should have been around 10.5-11 million on 8 year term, as McDavid>>Matthews>Eichel so he falls in the middle.

On 5 years it should have easily been under 10, as that shorter term is highly preferable for the player.

Except there is absolutely no precedent for a player with his ELC career taking that kind of money. Like ever.

 

[Nineteen67]

13 million by 8 is a brutal overpay. What had Matthews done, at all, to be the highest paid player in the league?

It should have been around 11 with term, not 13, and logic would say when looking at 11 for 8 years, 5 years would come in under 10 million

His contract was up so he had to sign a new one. The Leafs, the NHLPA and the NHL make millions off his services. He’s fairly compensated.

 

[Dekes For Days]

There still seems to be a lot of people who don't understand how good Matthews and Marner are.

I'll even split it up for people who think rookie years shouldn't be included:

ES P/GP at time of signing, all ELC years (adjusted to an average 15:00 ES TOI/GP):

Matthews - 0.70
Marner - 0.64
Point - 0.59
Tkachuk - 0.59
Connor - 0.56
Aho - 0.54
Boeser - 0.54
Rantanen - 0.53
Meier - 0.53
Laine - 0.52

ES P/GP at time of signing, 2nd and 3rd ELC years only (adjusted to an average 15:00 ES TOI/GP):

Matthews- 0.79
Marner - 0.68
Point - 0.64
Rantanen - 0.62
Aho - 0.61
Tkachuk - 0.60
Connor - 0.59
Meier - 0.59
Boeser - 0.56
Laine - 0.44

ES P/GP at time of signing, 3rd ELC year only (adjusted to an average 15:00 ES TOI/GP):

Matthews - 0.85
Marner - 0.80
Meier - 0.73
Point - 0.70
Tkachuk - 0.69
Rantanen - 0.65
Aho - 0.62
Boeser - 0.57
Connor - 0.56
Laine - 0.36

And yes, before anybody asks, Matthews and Marner were #1 and #2 respectively in all of these lists before adjusting for TOI. The adjustment pushes their numbers down in all cases except Marner in the first list (he gets a 1.5% bump on his numbers when all years are included). The adjustment most helps Laine, Tkachuk, and Meier.

Also a reminder, Matthews and Marner have been the 2 best per-minute PP producers of these players over their ELCs. The difference is that they get the least PP TOI/GP of any of these forwards except Meier.

People need to stop letting a team stat like PP opportunities skew their perception of these players.

 

[glue]

3 year 9.5 will suck. From now on all our contracts will suck and our internal cap is set way too high. I love Mitch as a player for sure but 9.5 is his cap over 7/8 years not 3. Dubas and co really screwed up every contract signing for the big 3 somehow. Either term, time it took to sign or cap hit. In this case a healthy mix of all 3

I have to admit that this is the part I too am pretty concerned with. By setting the internal cap structure so high, every negotiation you’re gonna have one skilled guy point to another and say, well he got payed X and therefore I ATLEAST deserve Y.

 

[Leafs87]

I have to admit that this is the part I too am pretty concerned with. By setting the internal cap structure so high, every negotiation you’re gonna have one skilled guy point to another and say, well he got payed X and therefore I ATLEAST deserve Y.

It’s already started happening and honestly I don’t know who it will stop with (if it does)

 

[Kiwi]

I have to admit that this is the part I too am pretty concerned with. By setting the internal cap structure so high, every negotiation you’re gonna have one skilled guy point to another and say, well he got payed X and therefore I ATLEAST deserve Y.

It’s already started happening and honestly I don’t know who it will stop it (if it does)

It's an ugly knock on effect, if it's 9.5M×3 imagine his next contract?
It's going to be spectacular if you like setting new contractual precedent

 

[ORRFForever]

Just give him $9.5M x 4 and let's move on.

We get him for 9.5M. He gets to UFA ASAP.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Just give him $9.5M x 4 and let's move on.

We get him for 9.5M. He gets to UFA ASAP.

I don't understand turning down guaranteed $$$ over 6,7,8 years. He could be getting 80-90 mil over 8 years guaranteed. I get that there is "potential" to earn even more, but it's only potential while 80-90 mil is guaranteed. I try to convince him to take the guaranteed money over the long term.

 

[jaric1862]

Mirtle on the leaf report today was saying that the Marner camp is dead set on getting the Matthews deal (same term+dollar amount) and that they believe as a tandem (Marner+Matthews) are the faces of the leafs franchise. It shocks me that even a 3 year term at a high dollar amount hasn’t gotten it done. He also alluded to the fact that the leafs have been very aggressive in trying to get a deal done, as he has reported before

 

[Suntouchable13]

Mirtle on the leaf report today was saying that the Marner camp is dead set on getting the Matthews deal (same term+dollar amount) and that they believe as a tandem (Marner+Matthews) are the faces of the leafs franchise. It shocks me that even a 3 year term at a high dollar amount hasn’t gotten it done. He also alluded to the fact that the leafs have been very aggressive in trying to get a deal done, as he has reported before

Sorry, but 11.6 per for both of them for 5 years does not work for us. That's brutal. Absolutely brutal.

 

[glue]

Mirtle on the leaf report today was saying that the Marner camp is dead set on getting the Matthews deal (same term+dollar amount) and that they believe as a tandem (Marner+Matthews) are the faces of the leafs franchise. It shocks me that even a 3 year term at a high dollar amount hasn’t gotten it done. He also alluded to the fact that the leafs have been very aggressive in trying to get a deal done, as he has reported before

Yay! Such wonderful news

 

[ORRFForever]

I don't understand turning down guaranteed $$$ over 6,7,8 years. He could be getting 80-90 mil over 8 years guaranteed. I get that there is "potential" to earn even more, but it's only potential while 80-90 mil is guaranteed. I try to convince him to take the guaranteed money over the long term.

I'm just tired of it.

 

[Dekes For Days]

And for anybody who questions how insanely generational Matthews is at goal-scoring:

ES G/GP at time of signing, all ELC years (adjusted to an average 15:00 ES TOI/GP):

Matthews - 0.41
Laine - 0.30
Boeser - 0.29
Connor - 0.28
Point - 0.25
Aho - 0.25
Meier - 0.25
Tkachuk - 0.23
Marner - 0.21
Rantanen - 0.19

ES G/GP at time of signing without EN goals, all ELC years (adjusted to an average 15:00 ES TOI/GP):

Matthews - 0.40
Boeser - 0.28
Laine - 0.27
Meier - 0.26
Point - 0.24
Connor - 0.24
Aho - 0.21
Marner - 0.20
Tkachuk - 0.20
Rantanen - 0.17

The difference between Matthews and 2nd place on this list is greater than the difference between 2nd place and the worst of these 10 major RFAs. Let that sink in.

If we take Ovechkin and his rate prior to signing, apply these same measures (adjusted to 15:00 ES TOI/GP, no EN goals), and then adjust him to the NHL league ES scoring rate over Matthews' sample (boosting Ovechkin by ~16%):

Matthews - 0.40
Ovechkin - 0.40

We have a special talent. Appreciate him.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I'm just tired of it.

I am tired of these contract negotiations. It's a week till camp and he is not signed yet, no real hope he will sign anytime soon either. It's really tiring.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Mirtle on the leaf report today was saying that the Marner camp is dead set on getting the Matthews deal (same term+dollar amount) and that they believe as a tandem (Marner+Matthews) are the faces of the leafs franchise. It shocks me that even a 3 year term at a high dollar amount hasn’t gotten it done. He also alluded to the fact that the leafs have been very aggressive in trying to get a deal done, as he has reported before

it's about time to trade him. it sounds like Marner's camp has not budged at all

 

[ORRFForever]

I am tired of these contract negotiations. It's a week till camp and he is not signed yet, no real hope he will sign anytime soon either. It's really tiring.

Amen, brother.

 

[Thissiteisgarbage]

Personally, I'd sign him for what he wants but then you have to trade Nylander.
I think Marner comes off looking like a SOB, but you either make him happy or he'll go walking ASAP anyhow.
Can we realistically looking at keeping Nylander around anyways with Barrie and Reilly contracts?
Tough call. Too bad Mitch thinks he's Wayne Gretzky.

 

[Fogelhund]

Just so you all are edumacated, I learned today on the Trade Board, that Laine is a better PP passer than Marner. Folks, you can't make this stuff up.

 

[Marshy]

it's about time to trade him. it sounds like Marner's camp has not budged at all

TDL is fine for me. To a non-playoff team for an unprotected first, their best prospect, a top 6 < 25 winger and a top 4 D.

We get a boost for the playoffs. A boost for the future and Marner goes to an endorsement wasteland with 10M in salary forfeited.

 

[rosscow]

Mirtle on the leaf report today was saying that the Marner camp is dead set on getting the Matthews deal (same term+dollar amount) and that they believe as a tandem (Marner+Matthews) are the faces of the leafs franchise. It shocks me that even a 3 year term at a high dollar amount hasn’t gotten it done. He also alluded to the fact that the leafs have been very aggressive in trying to get a deal done, as he has reported before

Than they should just trade him. Problem solved.

 

[Fogelhund]

Patience folks. I doubt Marner misses a game.