Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - 1 week to camp ... nothing

[CDN24]

I'd say most are saying the opposite

I mean what most who are saying he should get Matthews money are saying. Difference between them is minimal other than centre vs wing arguement. In this case it matters little as Marner has more of the centre premium attributes than Matthews (defensive responsibilities, creates for linemates etc).

The problem is that he gave Matthews the best contract in the league from a players perspective. The only way that 5 year term is good is if Matthews busts in which case I would argue there are other problems with it.

Look at it objectively without the OMG we don't have enough space to sign him at 10+ M, forget dollars, forget term, over the last 3 seasons has he been just as valuable as Matthews? If no how big is the gap. IMO its pretty darn small. Marner is that Gilmour type - do anything to win, Matthews is more Rick Vaive, a goal scorer who does not do much else. Those guys usually play RW. I would love to see them on same line with Marner at C and Matthews benefiting from Marners feeds.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Now what would Marner do if Dubas just makes an offer and says that's it, final offer, take it or leave it?

Say, Dubas offers an option of 4 years or 8 years with $9.5M aav to Marner. "Call me when you are ready to sign. Or don't. Whatever."

Would Marner REALLY hold out? Go play in Switzerland and waste a year of NHL money? Or would he eventually sign like a smart little puppy? What would he do?

The Leafs own his rights. He needs the Leafs more than the Leafs need him. He needs the Leafs to play in the NHL.

The reason Dubas wont play hardball is because Marner IS going to sign with the leafs so he doesnt want to tarnish the relationship

 

[Bronxxx]

I’m 100% with Dubas if, indeed, he played hardball. Marner has too much to lose if he sits this season. Recall Melander called Dubas 5 min. To the deadline.
Marner will do so before the season starts. I have no sympathy for Mitch.

 

[SotasicA]

This really deserved its own thread..........

It's September. There's no hot plays of the week to discuss.

I just want to know, in general, but also maybe applies to Nylander, are these players really ready to lose an entire season?

 

[18leafsfan18]

Just because I call out Dubas doesn't mean I am a Dubas hater. I am a Leafs fan and if I see that the moves made by Dubas is going to impact Leafs negatively in a cap world with respect to other teams then I will post about it.

I don't have a problem with Dubas' draft last season and his negotiations with both Mango and Kappy they were fair market deals

His 5 yer term should have been between 9 and 10 (depending if he wanted to give discount or not)

on the 8 year 12 AAV would have been fine

Eichel's contract (13.33%) Equals 11.06 AAV (At time of Matthews Signing)

McDavid's contract (16.67%) Equals 13.83 AAV (At time of Matthews Signing)

Matthews' reported contract for 8 years was 13 AAV (15.66%). Which puts him in between Eichel and McDavid, but closer to McDavid (1% vs 2.3%), which is where his value is.

All that without mentioning that McDavid's contract is viewed as a good deal because the team was willing to give him more (And any team would offer him more if they had the chance).

The notion from many posters on here that term means a drop of 3-4 aav is just flawed, they have no proof to back it up, no numbers to show what the aav should actually drop based on term.

The only real example of how much AAV drops based on term is Matthews contract. Dropped from 13 AAV to 11.6 AAV to go from 8 years to 5 years.

12 AAV for Matthews was never going to happen, as much as you will want to argue that 13 AAV means he is paid more then McDavid (Completely disregarding cap %).

 

[qqaz]

Now what would Marner do if Dubas just makes an offer and says that's it, final offer, take it or leave it?

Say, Dubas offers an option of 4 years or 8 years with $9.5M aav to Marner. "Call me when you are ready to sign. Or don't. Whatever."

Would Marner REALLY hold out? Go play in Switzerland and waste a year of NHL money? Or would he eventually sign like a smart little puppy? What would he do?

The Leafs own his rights. He needs the Leafs more than the Leafs need him. He needs the Leafs to play in the NHL.

That can only end poorly.

Yes, Marner might really skip the season. That's the worst case scenario, here. And a silly power-tripping ultimatum is the best way to get that bad result.

Even if he did sign, you've broken a relationship with a player that you won't fix. Now he demands a trade, and other players want out. Every player in the league wants to be paid what they're worth. A team (and GM) that refuses to even discuss a fair offer would be in deep trouble.

 

[CDN24]

Ya Dubas really needs to out wait Sakic here. By far the best comparables to Marner is Rantanen.

The Avs don't have the luxury of like 4 star forwards so I think they are going to want to ensure Rantanen is signed and in the lineup by the start of the season. Leafs have a bit more leeway performance wise.

I agree with you 100%, Leafs have a better chance of getting Marner with a lower AAV/more term if Rantannen goes first. It is also a reflection of our confidence (or mine anyway) in Dubas' ability to get this done too though isn't it.

We are saying that the GM who needs the player more and who has a boatload of cap space (nearly 16M with only Rantannen to sign) is more likely than Dubas to get it done on the cheap.

 

[janesy12]

I agree with you 100%, Leafs have a better chance of getting Marner with a lower AAV/more term if Rantannen goes first. It is also a reflection of our confidence (or mine anyway) in Dubas' ability to get this done too though isn't it.

We are saying that the GM who needs the player more and who has a boatload of cap space (nearly 16M with only Rantannen to sign) is more likely than Dubas to get it done on the cheap.

We may see that happen. Word is Rantanen and the Av's are talking again and trying to get something done according to Dave Pagnotta.
Ideally Rantanen signs something less than $9 per and Dubas gets more ammunition. These other teams can wait on Marner as much as they want, most players want to be in camp and I think a lot of them will be. Smartest thing for the Leafs to do is sit back and relax. Submit a couple of contract options for Marner that fit their cap structure, and wait for other teams to sign their players.

 

[Nithoniniel]

IMO, the primary reason that Matthews contract is viewed as bad is because McDavid deserved a max contract and took considerably less than that, while Matthews got about what he deserved. That put them closer than they probably should be.

 

[horner]

I mean what most who are saying he should get Matthews money are saying. Difference between them is minimal other than centre vs wing arguement. In this case it matters little as Marner has more of the centre premium attributes than Matthews (defensive responsibilities, creates for linemates etc).

The problem is that he gave Matthews the best contract in the league from a players perspective. The only way that 5 year term is good is if Matthews busts in which case I would argue there are other problems with it.

Look at it objectively without the OMG we don't have enough space to sign him at 10+ M, forget dollars, forget term, over the last 3 seasons has he been just as valuable as Matthews? If no how big is the gap. IMO its pretty darn small. Marner is that Gilmour type - do anything to win, Matthews is more Rick Vaive, a goal scorer who does not do much else. Those guys usually play RW. I would love to see them on same line with Marner at C and Matthews benefiting from Marners feeds.

I totally agree .

 

[18leafsfan18]

IMO, the primary reason that Matthews contract is viewed as bad is because McDavid deserved a max contract and took considerably less than that, while Matthews got about what he deserved. That put them closer than they probably should be.

Even with McDavid contract Matthews % on the rumored contract (13 x 8) was lower McDavid (1% lower) and higher then Eichel (2.3% higher), which IMO is exactly where he belongs.

Knowing that McDavid took considerably less and Matthews % was below the "Considerably Less" number should show that there is no issue with Matthews contract.

But, I do agree, many will complain about that contract because it is close to McDavid.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

IMO, the primary reason that Matthews contract is viewed as bad is because McDavid deserved a max contract and took considerably less than that, while Matthews got about what he deserved. That put them closer than they probably should be.

I think McDavid deserved similar money on a 5 year deal. 2.67% more than Matthews on the same term deal would quiet even the staunchest opposition, because their gap isn't even that large. I don't think anyone is going to get the 20% max contract because even if you are Gretzky, it doesn't leave enough room to fill everyone else in. As good as one guy is, he's clearly not going to win a Cup on his own (as you can see by Edmonton's lacklustre performances).

Matthews on a 16% contract for 8 years, which is reportedly where he would have been if we signed him for 8 years, is where Matthews should be. It's where he should have been even in the days when RFA's did not get paid ridiculously. In the days where Marner is apparently supposed to get 10+ mill for less than the max term, then it looks even better.

 

[janesy12]

Even with McDavid contract Matthews % on the rumored contract (13 x 8) was lower McDavid (1% lower) and higher then Eichel (2.3% higher), which IMO is exactly where he belongs.

Knowing that McDavid took considerably less and Matthews % was below the "Considerably Less" number should show that there is no issue with Matthews contract.

But, I do agree, many will complain about that contract because it is close to McDavid.

I think people have problem with the term. It walks him to UFA.
My opinion on it: If Matthews is the player he's shown he can be, and even get better then we'll hopefully have a Cup by the end of those 5 years.
He'll most likely be the Captain, and will likely have the keys to the city by then lol.

If he and the team can have a great 5 years, we'll have an excellent shot at resigning him to a mammoth max term contract at the age of 26. If the next 5 years are as disastrous as the past 15, then perhaps it would be best for both parties to move on, as he'll likely command a massive contract no matter how successful the team is.

Ideally we lock up Marner now and have a great 5 year window to get that Cup. If not, the Leafs have yet again, failed.

 

[Gary Nylund]

If it was so cheap, why didn't they sign him themselves?

They did.

It was an overpayment, comparatively its a joke though. Nylander got 500k a year premium, Matthews 3 years or about 2m-2.5m per, take your pick. With Marner wanting Matthews money? Tough time to be Leafs Brass. Marner at Matthews money and term would be about 3m-3.5m per overpay. That's about 5.5m or almost a JVR level player worth... The overpays would pay Rielly...

Really disappointed, hope they can spend 1sts and get a champ team within 3yrs

LOL.

 

[Suntouchable13]

They did.



LOL.

No, I mean why didn't they offer him that contract instead of having Montreal negotiate for them?

 

[4thline]

No, I mean why didn't they offer him that contract instead of having Montreal negotiate for them?

What you're willing to pay and what you want to pay are two different things

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I think people have problem with the term. It walks him to UFA.
My opinion on it: If Matthews is the player he's shown he can be, and even get better then we'll hopefully have a Cup by the end of those 5 years.
He'll most likely be the Captain, and will likely have the keys to the city by then lol.

If he and the team can have a great 5 years, we'll have an excellent shot at resigning him to a mammoth max term contract at the age of 26. If the next 5 years are as disastrous as the past 15, then perhaps it would be best for both parties to move on, as he'll likely command a massive contract no matter how successful the team is.

Ideally we lock up Marner now and have a great 5 year window to get that Cup. If not, the Leafs have yet again, failed.

Fans were all concerned with Tampa and Stamkos, Pittsburgh with Malkin and Crosby, Chicago with Toews and Kane, etc. after they signed 5 year deals out of ELC too. All of them ended up staying put. The only one who didn't was Tavares in NYI and technically a few guys in Ottawa (although all of them were traded for something), but you just have to look at the crap surrounding their teams (NYI has terrible attendance and stadium issues + teams that have generally sucked throughout Tavares' tenure; and Ottawa was Melnyk-ed) to understand why those guys left as soon as they could.

Unless Matthews' desire to go home, a team in a far worse situation than us and likely will be the same way in 5 years too, is so strong that he would be willing to leave what is likely to be one of the best situations for him to be in through his prime and one of the places to play hockey, we don't have any more to worry about than any of those other teams. At this point McDavid is more likely to walk in 8 years than Matthews is in 5, and we don't have to worry about paying him huge money for 3 twilight years like Edmonton would have to if they are able to re-sign McDavid.

 

[18leafsfan18]

I think people have problem with the term. It walks him to UFA.
My opinion on it: If Matthews is the player he's shown he can be, and even get better then we'll hopefully have a Cup by the end of those 5 years.
He'll most likely be the Captain, and will likely have the keys to the city by then lol.

If he and the team can have a great 5 years, we'll have an excellent shot at resigning him to a mammoth max term contract at the age of 26. If the next 5 years are as disastrous as the past 15, then perhaps it would be best for both parties to move on, as he'll likely command a massive contract no matter how successful the team is.

Ideally we lock up Marner now and have a great 5 year window to get that Cup. If not, the Leafs have yet again, failed.

There are so many examples of guys signing 5-6 year deals then resigning with their team. Almost every single high quality player in the league for a long time.

Why do fans always have to assume no one wants to be in Toronto ?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

No, I mean why didn't they offer him that contract instead of having Montreal negotiate for them?

Forced their hands a bit? I mean if the GM had the option they would hope to try and get a better offer for themselves and wait it out a bit but obviously they were fine with paying the 8.5 mill in the end. If someone tried to pay 10.6+ mill to Marner I'm not so sure the Leafs would have been that quick to match, at least at a 5 year term.

 

[Fogelhund]

No, I mean why didn't they offer him that contract instead of having Montreal negotiate for them?

Maybe we should slip Bergevin a $100 to offer sheet Marner 8 x $8.5?

 

[Suntouchable13]

Maybe we should slip Bergevin a $100 to offer sheet Marner 8 x $8.5?

He wouldn't sign it.

 

[Fogelhund]

He wouldn't sign it.

Obvious...

 

[Suntouchable13]

Obvious...

So Bergy walks away with a free $100

 

[Fogelhund]

So Bergy walks away with a free $100

You do understand what a joke is right?

Sure... give him $100, it will surely bankrupt MLSE.

 

[Confucius]

It's September. There's no hot plays of the week to discuss.

I just want to know, in general, but also maybe applies to Nylander, are these players really ready to lose an entire season?

Ofcourse not, not only would they lose their 8, 9 million. The offers on their next contract may even be less. Afterall they would have had a full year away from the league. Who knows if they could just pickup where they left off? Look at Nylander last year for example.