Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion - 1 week to camp ... nothing

[horner]

Not based on who won the “most valuable” player in the league last year.

mis qouted myself
Mathews is not worth more than kuch.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Im honestly curious what it matters to you... I mean, I agree they take too long to return the escrow money and should improve that whole process, but at the end of the day the players do get their split eventually. In a 50/50 split escrow is virtually an inevitability, the issue is the time they are taking to sort it which isn't acceptable. Increasing HRR grows the cap but does nothing to fix escrow

The core issue as stated properly by Toews recently is why are the players taking all the true-up risk on???????? The owners could pay out the $$$ and then request funds back from the players. It could be trued up that way too. That way they would have to show their work and could not do this work in the dark.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I watched that show and it was very interesting that on merit and position of the unsigned RFAs should be 1) Point 2) Rantanen 3) Marner in order of $$, however both Johnson and Noodles believed Marner would be the highest paid.

Also host Gino Reda responded with now we can see why other Agents/RFAs are waiting on Marner to go first as they believe he raises the bar for others that will follow.

Just from my perspective, if I am Dubas, I have to be aware of this. I am also aware that at some point, those players will not wait for Marner. Wait for them, get better comparables then sign Marner. Dont think Dubas will though.

 

[Sypher04]

The core issue as stated properly by Toews recently is why are the players taking all the true-up risk on???????? The owners could pay out the $$$ and then request funds back from the players. It could be trued up that way too. That way they would have to show their work and could not do this work in the dark.

The idea that the teams are going to pay them out the money, then the NHL it going to simply take it back is kinda nonsensical and more headaches than it would be worth. I don't think you'd find very many companies at all that'd operate things that way.
They should have to show their work either way and there's no reason they can't right now with the current system. I agree that all the numbers should be shared with the players (if they are not).

This all said... what risk?
The players get paid. x amount is retained by the NHL for escrow. final HRR is then calculated. If the players received more than their 50% then the NHL evens it out and returns the rest of the player's share to each individual player.

 

[Mess]

There's a house you think is worth 950k, but you're the only eligible buyer so you only want to pay 750k
A 2nd eligible buyer emerges, and is willing to pay 850k, despite also having to pay a foreign buyers tax of 10%.

Poor analogy for an Offersheet.

More like the seller has their home on the market (player) at their listing price and holding firm, while you as a buyer (his team) wants to offer and get it for less than list price, so no deal is completed as owner declines your offer.

Now another interested buyer (One submitting the OS) comes along and offers more than asking/listing price because they want to try and get the home instead of the other interested party (his own team).

That is how an OS works and the owner (player) gets more money (ie inflationary) due to competition driving up the price to one he is willing to sign off on..

If Marner signs an valid OS, then it will be for more > $$ than Leafs are willing to pay him without one (not the same or less), even if the Leafs match it and he stays in Toronto. Not sure I follow the logic where one would think the Leafs benefit via better a contract price by matching OS above their own offer and one they're negotiating. That suggests Dubas would believe another GM could get Marner on a better contract than he could himself.

If you now extend that thought process to Aho and Marner discussion where house A) Aho successfully sold for $8.45 mil above list (due to 2 X interested parties bidding) establishing market value in your area, and you now go and buy a similar home B) Marner for $9.5 mil and end up paying $1 mil more per year above market, without any competing against you. That to me seems like a bad deal not a good one.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

The idea that the teams are going to pay them out the money, then the NHL it going to simply take it back is kinda nonsensical and more headaches than it would be worth. I don't think you'd find very many companies at all that'd operate things that way.
They should have to show their work either way and there's no reason they can't right now with the current system. I agree that all the numbers should be shared with the players (if they are not).

This all said... what risk?
The players get paid. x amount is retained by the NHL for escrow. final HRR is then calculated. If the players received more than their 50% then the NHL evens it out and returns the rest of the player's share to each individual player.

If I paid my employees 100K each and held back 15K from each and said well once I have my final F/S done and audited then I will true everything up based on a 50/50 split of certain revenues relevant to your department and pay you back 5K and keep 10K for myself as the owner YOU WOULD BE UP IN ARMS. It does not ever happen that way in any business that I have owned over the years.

 

[Sypher04]

If I paid my employees 100K each and held back 15K from each and said well once I have my final F/S done and audited then I will true everything up based on a 50/50 split of certain revenues relevant to your department and pay you back 5K and keep 10K for myself as the owner YOU WOULD BE UP IN ARMS. It does not ever happen that way in any business that I have owned over the years.

You have to understand that your personal experience has no weight here, right?
The NHL has a 50/50 split of revenue to maintain, I'm feeling pretty confident the businesses you've owned never have as it's pretty far outside the norm.
The players get 50% of HRR, they agreed to this, nothing more.
The NHL withholding a portion of their pay to balance that out really should not be an issue. The issue is how badly they've dropped the ball on the timelines of paying back escrow. It should never take years for the final HRR calculations to be tallied and the money subsequently paid back.

Escrow itself really isn't a problem. It's just bad management as far as I'm concerned.

 

[4thline]

Poor analogy for an Offersheet.

More like the seller has their home on the market (player) at their listing price and holding firm, while you as a buyer (his team) wants to offer and get it for less than list price.

Now another interested buyer (One submitting the OS) comes along and offers more than asking/listing price because they want to try and get the home instead of the other interested party (his own team).

That is how an OS works and the owner (player) gets more money (ie inflationary) due to competition driving up the price to one he is willing to sign off on..

Nah it's a good analogy, you're just missing a step and not actually understanding the economic model. The market restriction of RFA acts on the market first, influencing ask.

Free market value = what teams would pay if there was no restrictions and comp required. This is the actual worth the player provides.

Modified market value = what teams are willing to pay with the restrictions and comp required. Less than free market value.

Accepted market value = the lower level teams want to get their players signed due to the stigma and ineffectiveness of offersheets.

The RFA process is a mechanism designed to depress the value of the players and establish an artificial market curve below the free curve by adding an acquisition cost over and above the contract value- lowering each teams willingness to pay.

So to fully flesh out the analogy:

House (Aho) is worth 950k. But he and his realtor know that because of market restrictions he's never going to get that, so they list at 850k.

The team (also knowing the house is worth 950k) look at the restrictions and think they can get the house at 750k, they offer that and it's rejected.

Another bidder that's subject to foreign buyers tax of 10% (who also agrees the house is worth 950k) is willing to meet the list price of 850k. Even with the 10% it's still worth it based on their assessment of value.

Seller accepts, initial buyer is forced to match the modified market value, which his higher than they wanted to pay but lower than the house is worth.

 

[PromisedLand]

Lets admit the JT signing was the biggest mistake for this organization, not that he is a bad player, but a a good fit at the right time. Thats why we are here in this situation.

not really but paying matthews more than JT for less term clearly is a mistake!

 

[Marshy]

I can't wait until he signs and the main boards go from "He should get what Matthews gets!" to "What an insane overpayment...stupid Dubas!!!"

 

[ShaneFalco]

I can't wait until he signs and the main boards go from "He should get what Matthews gets!" to "What an insane overpayment...stupid Dubas!!!"

That will happen here

 

[Marshy]

That will happen here

LOL touché!

 

[JT AM da real deal]

You have to understand that your personal experience has no weight here, right?
The NHL has a 50/50 split of revenue to maintain, I'm feeling pretty confident the businesses you've owned never have as it's pretty far outside the norm.
The players get 50% of HRR, they agreed to this, nothing more.
The NHL withholding a portion of their pay to balance that out really should not be an issue. The issue is how badly they've dropped the ball on the timelines of paying back escrow. It should never take years for the final HRR calculations to be tallied and the money subsequently paid back.

Escrow itself really isn't a problem. It's just bad management as far as I'm concerned.

I think you should talk to a few of the players yourself. When you can't find a single NHL contracted player in favor of the current escrow arrangement then I think you will honestly have to change your mind about your stance. Of course my businesses do not have a 50/50 revenue split. But when you sign a contract with someone and ultimately it means very little on your take home comp because of some overriding CBA i think you would be upset too. Especially when you don't understand why sponsorships (which truly only exist in Toronto because of the players) are not included in HRR. If I sell a jersey of Leafs with no name or number on it it is HRR. If I sell a jersey with a name and number on it it is HRR. If I sell a hot dog at the game it is HRR. If people park next door in a lot that I own to go to the game that is not HRR. If I sell naming rights to a practice rink (because Leafs practice there) it is not HRR. If I take in franchise fees of $700M it is not HRR. If my company buys a box at Scotia it is HRR. If my company buys sponsorship to advertise at both Raps and Leafs and concerts it is not HRR. I could go on and on here but the whole thing seems and feels like a sham to every player.

 

[18leafsfan18]

not really but paying matthews more than JT for less term clearly is a mistake!

He hasn't played a single game of that contract, but it's already a mistake.

 

[PromisedLand]

Keller's underlying number last season were absolutely dresdful.

I'm a fan of Keller, but there's a fair gap between those two

Underlying stats first of all are not 100% causal; there are holes in the underlying stats I have talked about it many time; you use those underlying stats as gospel which is pretty amateurish

Second, even if you want to use the so called "underlying stats" use it with context just don't throw the numbers out

the so called underlying stats have a direct correlation with usage, QoT and QoC

Nylander has played most of his career with Matthews
Nylander last year was "sheltered" and still ended up with an abysmal season

Keller doesn't fit the above two criteria

 

[PromisedLand]

He hasn't played a single game of that contract, but it's already a mistake.

Given the context of recent performance of star players and the "franchise" centers that signed recently (excluding Aho which is after Matthews) -> McDavid, Eichel, Stamkos, JT

yea it matters because "term" matters!!!

 

[CDN24]

I can't wait until he signs and the main boards go from "He should get what Matthews gets!" to "What an insane overpayment...stupid Dubas!!!"

IMO he is worth the same or similar as Matthews and Matthews IMO is overpaid. Therefore if he signs for what Matthews got I will say he like Matthews is overpaid.

When Dubas signed Matthews he squeezed the toothpaste out of the tube, getting it back in is proving to be problematic.

What most of us are saying is he is as valuable as Matthews so Matthews is a fair comparable. That said, he will be overpaid as Matthews is overpaid but that contract like it or not, is the biggest reason we are in September and all those highend RFAs are still without a contract.

 

[ShaneFalco]

What most of us are saying is he is as valuable as Matthews so Matthews is a fair comparable

I'd say most are saying the opposite

 

[18leafsfan18]

Given the context of recent performance of star players and the "franchise" centers that signed recently (excluding Aho which is after Matthews) -> McDavid, Eichel, Stamkos, JT

yea it matters because "term" matters!!!

Matthews fits right there in between McDavid and Eichel. Is paid as such.

What should his contract have been on 8 years and on 5 years ?

 

[PromisedLand]

Matthews fits right there in between McDavid and Eichel. Is paid as such.

What should his contract have been on 8 years and on 5 years ?

this where dubas fanboys get it wrong.

matthews AAV is between McDavid and Eichel but it is on a 5 year term that is 3 less years than the other two. And yes it matters in a cap world!

 

[Nineteen67]

Im honestly curious what it matters to you... I mean, I agree they take too long to return the escrow money and should improve that whole process, but at the end of the day the players do get their split eventually. In a 50/50 split escrow is virtually an inevitability, the issue is the time they are taking to sort it which isn't acceptable. Increasing HRR grows the cap but does nothing to fix escrow

Increases the pool so players could get a fairer share of the revenue. We hear lots of stories about what is and isn’t hrr and how owners skirt around it.

 

[18leafsfan18]

this where dubas fanboys get it wrong.

matthews AAV is between McDavid and Eichel but it is on a 5 year term that is 3 less years than the other two. And yes it matters in a cap world!

No Dubas fanboy here, just not a negative Dubas hater.

Just answer the question, what should his contract be on 5 year term and on 8 year term ?

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Just from my perspective, if I am Dubas, I have to be aware of this. I am also aware that at some point, those players will not wait for Marner. Wait for them, get better comparables then sign Marner. Dont think Dubas will though.

Ya Dubas really needs to out wait Sakic here. By far the best comparables to Marner is Rantanen.

The Avs don't have the luxury of like 4 star forwards so I think they are going to want to ensure Rantanen is signed and in the lineup by the start of the season. Leafs have a bit more leeway performance wise.

 

[PromisedLand]

No Dubas fanboy here, just not a negative Dubas hater.

Just answer the question, what should his contract be on 5 year term and on 8 year term ?

Just because I call out Dubas doesn't mean I am a Dubas hater. I am a Leafs fan and if I see that the moves made by Dubas is going to impact Leafs negatively in a cap world with respect to other teams then I will post about it.

I don't have a problem with Dubas' draft last season and his negotiations with both Mango and Kappy they were fair market deals

His 5 yer term should have been between 9 and 10 (depending if he wanted to give discount or not)

on the 8 year 12 AAV would have been fine

 

[SotasicA]

Now what would Marner do if Dubas just makes an offer and says that's it, final offer, take it or leave it?

Say, Dubas offers an option of 4 years or 8 years with $9.5M aav to Marner. "Call me when you are ready to sign. Or don't. Whatever."

Would Marner REALLY hold out? Go play in Switzerland and waste a year of NHL money? Or would he eventually sign like a smart little puppy? What would he do?

The Leafs own his rights. He needs the Leafs more than the Leafs need him. He needs the Leafs to play in the NHL.