Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread

[The Iceman]

Wheeler's lists have been quetionable so this isn't surprising. Jarvis should be on that list and Amirov probably too. Liljegren at the worst should be in the HM's. If Sandin is eligible and he isn't there, I can't trust a list like that.

Jarvis is on the list.

and can anyone tell me anything about Marlie signing Matt Hellickson?

 

[4thline]

So, @Schenn gonna host the annual vote or are you committed to retirement?

 

[stickty111]

Here is my year end prospect breakdown. These don't include freshly signed players to ELC's or newly drafted players.
#12. LHD. Filip Kral
LYR 13
Overview
One of those mid round fallers that team’s snag up when the prospect should have gone higher, and personally one of my favorites. Kral was drafted in the 5th round at 149th overall in the 5th round. He was projected to go a round or 2 before, so Leafs did well getting him where they did. I moved up Karl to #13 after having him at #14 in the beginning, and then today wrestled with the fact about putting him higher. I thought about as high 11, but left him here seeing the 2 ahead of him already have pro experience, even though Kral’s chances are higher to make the NHL. Kral had a solid draft year before suffering a major injury which caused him to be out until November in his D+1. He has a solid year that season despite playing second fiddle to Ty Smith. Kral settled in as a 2nd pairing defenseman as a result on the Chiefs. He went back for his overage season this year, and was one of the better defensemen in the league as should be expected. There was even talk he was outplaying Ty Smith whatever that means. The Leafs signed him to a deserved ELC recently, as he turns pro next season. With Covid halting and delaying the AHL season, Kral decided to go over to his country and play in the Czech league. He hadn’t played there since he was a teenager. He played a few games in the lower level where he showed he was way too good for that league, and then got promoted to the higher level where after a bit of a slow start, he was one of the best players in the team and arguably league as well. He lead his team to an unlikely comeback in the first round, and according to viewers was the team’s MVP in the playoffs. After his team was eliminated In the 2nd round, Kral played a few games with the Marlies where he looked okay but was still adjusting. Kral is expected to have a full time role with the Marlies next season and that will tell what he might end up becoming for the organization.

Stats
2019/2020
WHL
GP: 53
Goals: 12
Assists: 37
Points: 49
Rating: +18

2020/2021
Czech2
GP: 7
Goals: 2
Assists: 8
Points: 10
Rating: +4
Rel CF: +8.73

2020/2021
Czech
GP: 48
Goals: 6
Assists: 15
Points: 21
Rating: +12
Rel CF: +0.08

Statistical Analysis
He had a solid D+1 season. The numbers might not looks great and you probably want more, but when you take into account that he was out several months, played on PP2 and on the 2nd defensive pairing, that’s impressive production. There was a sour point though as he managed just 2 points in 12 games in the playoffs. This season his production really increased to near PPG as should be the case. He dominated statistically despite being on the 2nd pair again in some parts of the season. Kral’s primary points went up in every category. His EV P1/GP increased from 0.29 to 0.32, along with his PP primary points/GP which increased from 0.15 to 0.17, for an overall increase of primary points from 0.45 to 0.51. All this despite his ES ice time decreasing from the previous season. When looking at the underlying numbers, he always ranks high in terms of zone exits and entries, plus entry defence at his blueline. He has been one of the highest players in Mitch Brown’s analysis. This season in the Czech2 league, he dominated in every way and clearly should not have been there. His Rel CF of over 8 shows how good he was including his raw point production. He then got promoted as expected and was really good again despite his team being awful. His point production is really good despite extremely low zone starts, where it was almost like they were just sinking him there. His OZS% was 26 which is crazy to believe. The team did everything possible to bury him yet somehow ended up positive on possession relative to his team. In the playoffs he took him game to another level where his Rel CF was over 8. He really was outstanding in his loan. With the Marlies he tallied 2 goals in a handful of games.

Talent Analysis
Breakdown of grades:
1- Poor
2- Below average
3- Average
4- Good
5- Great

Player Grades: Present/Future
Skating: 4/4
Shot: 4/4
Puck Skills: 3.5/3.5
Compete: 3/3
Defence: 3.5/4
Smarts/IQ: 3.5/3.5
Note: Puck skills includes passing ability, puck control and creating

Kral is very mobile defenseman, and overall a solid skater albeit without explosiveness. His edge work is really good as he can evade pressure with ease, and moves around well east and west. He uses subtle fakes or changes speeds to deal with pressure. When he gets going, his acceleration is good, but his start up speed is only average though so I didn't put him higher It shouldn’t be a problem in pro, but adding more speed when he starts up would really make a huge difference. The positive is that his edges are really good, so he should be able to handle the increased forcheck in the pros.

I like Kral’s game offensively. I wouldn’t call it elite by any means, but his offense comes from being simple. His passing is his best tool offensively, and it helps him start up many rushes on breakouts. He can make some great passes in the offensive zone now and then, but mostly his passing is simple but extremely accurate. There isn’t really a wow factor here, but his passing is just really solid and he can control the puck well where he rarely loses it, and then he makes a very good 1st pass. He can rush the puck to and he is solid in that as aspect, but he prefers the 1st pass route. This is why he is a zone exit stats darling. He always ranks near the top in zone entries. I would have graded his shot as a 3 last year which is average, but it has certainly shown a lot of improvement this season. He has scored some goals off beauty snipes this season from near the blueline/slot. The tools are not amazing so it's fair to see how much offense he generates in pro hockey, even his shot is good but not impressivly strong but I think there is enough here to put numbers

I like his effort. He certainly competes in all zones, and I don’t really see a drop off from the offensive zone to the defensive zone. Pretty much cut and paste from other majority players you see who work hard as we want them too.

Going into to the draft year, there were defensive issues and you could make the case he was probably in the 2.5 range. Fast forward to now, and he requires work still, but there has been improvement. He is another defenseman in the system whose best defensive work comes just before his blueline. He is really good at defending his blueline. He get cut off players, and force them to the corner of the blueline. He has an active stick which he uses while dealing with incoming players. This is shown In the entry stats where he is always near the top, as his numbers on breaking up rushes are high. When it comes to defending In his zone, that’s where he has some issues. The criticism last season was that he puck watched way too much, and we know that is the worst thing you can do as a defenseman. This season he improved there, but still does it more then you want him too. His 3 rating comes from his line defending which is fantastic, but he is below average in his zone, so it comes down as average. This is probably where you say Travis Dermott is with the Leafs.

He is a smart player. He makes the right decisions with the puck, and doesn’t force certain plays like rushing the puck carelessly. He sticks to what he is good at. His IQ is not an issue on defence, but just needs to continue to improve with more experience. I would be worried if he showed no growth from the past season, but the fact he has shown improvement tells that smarts is not an issue.

My future projection: Above average tools all over the board with good skating, and defends the way the organization likes should get you somewhere. He was clearly too good for Czech, and needs adjusting to the AHL. I think he will have a good season and potentially push for an NHL spot soon.

NHL Player? Yes, I think there are too many tools there not to succeed. Likely 2 years away

 

[stickty111]

Extra Liga updated their playoffs stats late so didn't get a chance to read Kral's stats then, but now seeing them wow was he good. A CF% of 55 with rel of over +8, he was pretty amazing in the playoffs after dragging his team there in the season. Plus his team reverse sweeping their opponent in the 1st round is even more impressive.
I still get surprised at how low his OZ% was in the season at 26%. It's so low it looks like a mistake. It makes his positive Rel CF look even better. If this is how Kral can look like with the Marlies, he's pushing for a spot in the NHL pretty soon. He was meh with the Marlies but I expect him to be much better in a normal season next year.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Jarvis is on the list.

and can anyone tell me anything about Marlie signing Matt Hellickson?

Never offered an ELC by new jersey, but played for USA at the Worlds, a long shot if he is still considered an NHL prospect. Played a couple games with Binghamton after graduating from Notre Dame.

 

[Jacquestrapless]

Anybody know anything about these players?

 

[Leaf Fans]

Anybody know anything about these players?

Colby Saganiuk is the grandson of form Leaf Rocky Saganiuk he is is still eligible for the 2022 daft I believe. Vincent Sévigny is a guy I think can be a prospect.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

I sir...know nothing

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Anybody know anything about these players?

Rochette: The best and probably only ELC candidate on the list. Very similar profile as Danault as a junior player.

2020 Draft Profile: C Theo Rochette
Theo Rochette Scouting Report: 2020 NHL Draft #86
https://thehockeywriters.com/theo-rochette-2020-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/

Guevin: Offensive defenseman who had around a 0.8 PPG in his DY in the USHL this past year. Had him in my top 125 this past year so I am happy about that pickup. Not going to a top-tier NCAA school, and I can understand the general hesitancy in drafting offensive defensemen; especially ones with questionable decision making. If he does well at Nebraska-Omaha next year, he should get drafted around where I expected he would go this past year.



Gauthier: High marks for his athleticism, but he always had question marks about his technique and positioning, which is likely why he did not get selected despite some excellent numbers on subpar Prince George teams. Would be a good project on an AHL contract with the Growlers next year if he is willing to give up on his OA year. If we can refine his technique, he would be far better than Akhtyamov and Peksa as a prospect in that age range. Was good enough to make the Canadian U20 team as a 3rd goalie.

https://thehockeywriters.com/taylor-gauthier-2019-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/
https://thehockeywriters.com/taylor-gauthier-2021-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/

Hardie: Covers him pretty well. Very similar profile as Gogolev at the same age. Definitely an intriguing AHL contract candidate in a few years.

https://thehockeywriters.com/james-hardie-2020-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/
James Hardie Scouting Report: 2020 NHL Draft #91

Moore: Elite skater. Above average IQ and puck skills. Overall, not sure he has enough to overcome his 5'9" frame as a defender, because he will go as far as his skating will take him. If he was 3 or 4 inches taller, he would have been at least a top 75 pick in 2020, and could have been a potential 2nd pairing defender. Another guy I would still bring in on an AHL contract though.

Lleyton Moore – Oshawa Generals – Player Profile
https://thepuckauthority.com/the-puck-authoritys-prospect-profiles-lleyton-moore/

Kressler: He's small, but may have enough there to be a bottom 6 energy guy in the NHL even if he is smaller. Possibly the best re-entry candidate on this list besides Guevin.

27. Braeden Kressler - Center/Wing - Flint Firebirds
If Kressler were a little bigger, I think that we would be talking about him as a potential top 50 selection. However, at 5'9, it becomes a little more difficult to project him as an NHL player given his style of play. A terrific and energetic two-way player, Kressler would be someone NHL teams would be looking at as a potential shutdown center if he were over 6'0, however that kind of role seems to demand a little more size in today's game. That means teams will probably project him as a more of a change of pace, middle six winger. Anyway you slice it, Kressler is an impressive young player and one who brings a ton of versatility. He excelled in a variety of different roles last season for Flint. He killed penalties. He played center in a third line, energy role. He played wing higher in the lineup with the likes of Ty Dellandrea, helping to chase down pucks and open up space for his linemates. More shifty than fast, Kressler is one of the draft's best on his edges; able to turn, start, and stop on a dime. This makes him a really elusive player in the offensive zone. The one area of his game that will need to show improvement is his shot and finishing ability, especially if he wants to be more than a PK, depth option at the next level. He earned so many good looks last season but had a really tough time putting the puck in the net. Without action this year, it is difficult to say what Kressler's high end upside is. But, given the well rounded nature of his skill set, it is likely that he should be able to carve out a role for himself in some capacity.

Saganiuk: Saganiuk has speed but nothing really else to offer and is really undersized. Played with Voit as a U16 player. Mostly filler.

48. Colby Saganiuk - Center/Wing - Erie Otters
There's undersized and then there are players like Alex Debrincat and Colby Saganiuk. Look at the type of production Debrincat had to put up just to get a look and now he's one of the NHL's elite goal scorers. Now, I'm not comparing the two stylistically. I'm just saying that it will be tough for Saganiuk (measured at 5'4 in Erie) to draw the kind of attention I think he deserves without having played this season. He left the US NTDP to play in Erie after falling down the lineup with the U17's later in the 2019/20 season, but never got a chance to show what he could do in the OHL with significant ice time (which he would have received). I think Saganiuk has to be considered one of the elite skaters in this draft, which is obviously going to be key for him given his lack of size. However, with a low center of gravity and really explosive edges, he generates speed so quickly and effortlessly. When he is given space in transition, look out. I also really like that Saganiuk is far from a perimeter player in the offensive zone. He will take a hit to make a play or drive/crash the net. For all the puck skill he possesses, he had a really tough time finishing in the USHL last year though. Chance after chance generated, but his shot really lacks power and polish. Additionally, he struggled mightily in the defensive end, making him a fairly one dimensional player. That said, if I am looking at which OHL players to draft in the mid to later rounds this year, it is players like Saganiuk, who are elite in one or two areas of the game. Then you hope that other things round into form and improve around that. I do feel that the number one key for him is improving that shot...on top of obviously getting stronger to help overcome his height and reach deficits. At the Erie showcase, his lack of size and strength really hurt him as he was continuously knocked off the puck in his attempts to drive wide.

Sevigny is one of the best AHL candidate defenseman out of the 01' QMJHL crop, but he is 50/50 at best in terms of actually earning one right now. May only be CIS quality, but worth watching to see if he stands out enough to earn AHL contract consideration (either right now or after his OA year in Victoriaville).

Budgell: One of the best AHL contract forwards out of the QMJHL crop, and he is more likely to get an AHL contract. He will probably return to Charlottetown this year to go for a championship as their captain, especially after last year's disappointment, but I think he would jump at the chance to play with his hometown team in St. John's and may be able to work his way up from there similar to Ryan Chyzlowski will try to do starting this year.

Wing with a solid compete level, battling hard one scrum after another, and gets bigger players off the puck with body leverage. A smart player who finds the creases to be open for outlet passes. Moves to the front rapidly always looking to throw off the goalies. Will get bigger and gain leg strength. And that will enrich the physical aspects he already applies.

—Bill Placzek—

Lapenna: Great numbers in the QMJHL, but small. Has received some high praise from the NHL.com writers, getting compared to Jose Theodore, but I feel like there are a bunch of smaller guys who get that kind of hype all of the time and they struggle once they hit the pros. I'd put Gauthier a fair bit ahead of him as a viable NHL prospect right now, but Lapenna should be a good measuring stick for Gauthier and the other guy we likely bring in (whether that be Scott or another UFA prospect).

Del Mastro and Cato is mostly just filler like Saganiuk.

Overall, a solid crop, but I think we are mostly scouting a few D+1 guys (notably Kressler and Guevin) for next year's draft and a bunch of higher quality AHL contract candidates. I think Rochette is the only guy with legit ELC potential out of the entire group.

 

[SprDaVE]

 

[Knies iT]

Would have liked to see a Tag Bertuzzi invite to dev camp. Skating is a major work in progress but he showed big improvements offensively over the last two seasons and recently played in the Slovak league where he was PPG. Second rate league but he was a menace physically over there. Headed to the Habs camp instead.

Rochette is the leading ELC candidate as mentioned above but I like the potential of Gauthier. Big, athletic goalie with interesting pedigree internationally. Politics aside, I would have liked to see what Imoo could have done with the more erratic goalies in the Leafs system like Woll and Gauthier* who have similar stylistic pitfalls as Campbell did in his youth (swim in the net, overly active, questionable puck tracking, etc.).

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Solid depth for the Marlies. Probably will end up being like another Tanner MacMaster, who can play all over the lineup as a depth guy. Should push Jack Kopacka down to the Growlers.

 

[hockeynorth]

I’d really like to sign Rochette

 

[SprDaVE]

Leafs/Marlies have added a lot of defensemen. Should be pretty competitive.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Leafs/Marlies have added a lot of defensemen. Should be pretty competitive.

It's almost as if they are anticipating they wont have Sandin and Lilly available for the Marlies...

I mean Sandman is no shock, but I really really hope Lilly gets a solid look at the NHL level this year. He more than deserves it at this point

 

[stickty111]

Kokkonen and Hirvonen with pre season goals today.

 

[stickty111]

Villeneuve strangly not in the lineup for St. Johns 1st pre season game.
Guessing he will be in the Leafs development camp then.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Villeneuve strangly not in the lineup for St. Johns 1st pre season game.
Guessing he will be in the Leafs development camp then.

It's rookie camp time, hence why there are a ridiculous amount of asterisks on the list.

I am actually more surprised Peter Reynolds and Charles Savoie are playing more than anything. I would have figured they received NHL invites and they are practically guaranteed a spot on that roster.

 

[Knies iT]

Extra Liga updated their playoffs stats late so didn't get a chance to read Kral's stats then, but now seeing them wow was he good. A CF% of 55 with rel of over +8, he was pretty amazing in the playoffs after dragging his team there in the season. Plus his team reverse sweeping their opponent in the 1st round is even more impressive.
I still get surprised at how low his OZ% was in the season at 26%. It's so low it looks like a mistake. It makes his positive Rel CF look even better. If this is how Kral can look like with the Marlies, he's pushing for a spot in the NHL pretty soon. He was meh with the Marlies but I expect him to be much better in a normal season next year.

Watching Kral dominate the playoffs after tying the Czech league all-time record for most points by a U21 defender was about as good of a season as you could ask for.

I was very bullish on him mid-year to the point where I thought he was close to leap frogging Kokkonen. But watching both of them on the Marlies, I think Kokkonen is the better prospect right now. Kral is a bit more raw and needs to add more explosiveness but his offensive game is standout. I’d guess 2-3 years. He’s always been a high floor type, but after last season his ceiling might be higher than most thought.

 

[Fogelhund]

 

[SprDaVE]

Villeneuve strangly not in the lineup for St. Johns 1st pre season game.
Guessing he will be in the Leafs development camp then.

It starts in like 3-4 weeks. Seems more like he'll either play in another game or maybe nursing a small injury.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Just keeps getting better and better.

He is another guy who could potentially earn an ELC after rookie camp.

 

[Fogelhund]

Just keeps getting better and better.

He is another guy who could potentially earn an ELC after rookie camp.

Isn't he still draft eligible?

 

[SprDaVE]

 

[ACC1224]

What's his connection to The Soo?