Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread

[acrobaticgoalie]

No, I should clarify that.

Akhtyamov was described as a good prospect who didn't have the high end refinement that Askarov demonstrated/was billed to have leading up to the draft. That's why he wasn'ta first round pick, and clearly he's not an Askarov level prospect.

Second, separate thought: Then again, Askarov ended up looking very raw at the WJC's himself. (Not trying to diminish Askarov, or draw equivalency) as Askarov my favorite prospect for the Leafs entering the 2020 draft.

Was gonna reply to your initial post mentioning Askarov by saying he is far from refined but saw this.

Askarov is an exciting prospect because of his package of tools, size and athleticism but man, the guy is all over the place. He needs to learn to sit still sometimes. He makes some of these crazy saves because he is constantly throwing himself out of position. If he can show the composure of a Carey Price, we're talking about possibly the best goalie to ever play someday. And I've never seen a goalie lose his stick so much. I think he lost his stick more times in that one WJC game than I've lost in my whole life.

 

[kb]

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Liljegren
Dermott - Holl

Those are d-core pairings you won't be afraid to have out against anyone.

 

[Stephen]

Was gonna reply to your initial post mentioning Askarov by saying he is far from refined but saw this.

Askarov is an exciting prospect because of his package of tools, size and athleticism but man, the guy is all over the place. He needs to learn to sit still sometimes. He makes some of these crazy saves because he is constantly throwing himself out of position. If he can show the composure of a Carey Price, we're talking about possibly the best goalie to ever play someday. And I've never seen a goalie lose his stick so much. I think he lost his stick more times in that one WJC game than I've lost in my whole life.

Yeah I was surprised how raw Askarov looked. The way he was billed pre draft you would have thought Russian Price, Spencer Knight type goalie. Big, athletic, structure, technique. But he looked like MAF when he was still in the Q.

 

[Prominence]

Was gonna reply to your initial post mentioning Askarov by saying he is far from refined but saw this.

Askarov is an exciting prospect because of his package of tools, size and athleticism but man, the guy is all over the place. He needs to learn to sit still sometimes. He makes some of these crazy saves because he is constantly throwing himself out of position. If he can show the composure of a Carey Price, we're talking about possibly the best goalie to ever play someday. And I've never seen a goalie lose his stick so much. I think he lost his stick more times in that one WJC game than I've lost in my whole life.

Askarov or wellstadt or cossa?

 

[stickty111]

I thought Keefe or someone had said Liljegren just needs time to adapt to the NHL game which was similar when he came over to the AHL.

Either way looks like the Leafs are ready to give him his shot this year. I think he'll do well. Once he gets settled he very well could ascend into the top 4 sooner than Sandin.

It was Keefe.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Askarov or wellstadt or cossa?

I've never seen Cossa. I've only seen Wellstadt once I think. He is probably closer to playing in the NHL than Askarov imo based on his calmer play but I would take Askarov on ability alone and just keep working on slowing his game down.

 

[zeke]

Age 17
Samsonov: MHL 18GMS, .918 - KHL 1GM, .500 - WJC 3GMS, .934
Varlamov: WJC 5GMS, .921
Age 18
Samsonov: KHL 19GMS, .925 - MHL 5GMS, .935 - WJC 2GMS, .956
Bobrovsky: KHL 8GMS, .893
Varlamov: KHL 33GMS, .920 - WJC 6GMS, .934
Age 19
Samsonov: KHL 27GMS, .936 - WJC 6GMS, .930
Bobrovsky: KHL 24GMS, .901 - WJC 6GMS, .919
Varlamov: KHL 44GMS, .909

(the name 'KHL/MHL' was only around since the early 2010's, but the league was still the same in the 2000's; it was just noted as "Russia" for KHL and "Russia-3" for MHL).

Melnichuk is a nobody at this point and the only one really comparable to Akhtyamov. It took some time for Shestyorkin to make the KHL, but I would give Akhtyamov more slack if he played for CSKA or St. Petersburg like Shestyorkin did (St. Petersburg), posted .950 save percentages at every level he's played at, and was a star starter in the WJC. Akhtyamov has not reached those levels and while Kazan is a tough team to crack, it is not at the level of a CSKA or St. Petersburg.

The others were KHL starters by age 19 (if not earlier in some cases), whereas Akhtyamov was #4 on the Kazan depth chart at 19.

Yeah I don't see how any of those numbers you posted make Akhtyamov look like a non-prospect - quite the opposite, actually.

 

[zeke]

Actually it is extremely mediocre. Especially considering how good of a system AK Bars has. In the 11 years of data elite prospects has, I counted 71 U20 goaltenders to put up at least a .930 SV%. That works out to 6-7 guys per year. Guys like Shesterkin and Vasilevsky were doing it at age 16.

Of the 43 U20 goaltenders to play a decent stretch in the VHL, roughly half of them put up at least a .920 SV%.

He needs to play in the KHL and put up some big numbers to really make some waves as a prospect.

Give me the links on elite prospects for those league numbers plz.

Because you are describing the only hockey league in the world where .930sv% is average.

 

[Pholus]

OK, Makes sense.

looking at it closer it looks like Bobkov was either hurt or got outplayed by the other goalie in Avangard's Gagarin Cup team. AT least in the playoffs, it looks like he played less games. Hopefully it was that he sucked and continues to suck lol. I'd love to see Artur play at the next level. I believe AK-Bars orginization also has a VHL affiliate. But I also know there was some issues with Amirov going to the VHL affiliate because geographically they were so far away that it reduced UFA's ability to call him up if need be, and often would call kids up from the MHL club instead which was closer. Again, I know very little about that league and most of the players in it. I ultimately just want Artur to get chance to play at a higher level at some point in the year

Ak Bars (KHL), Bars (VHL), and Irbis (MHL) are all in the same city, with the KHL and MHL teams sharing an arena. It's very easy for Akhtyamov to move between levels, as evidenced by last season where he spent the most time in the VHL, during the regular season at least. Based on Kazan's depth chart, I would expect him to begin the year as the VHL starter, so #3 in line for KHL playing time.

His raw numbers (GAA/save%) do look nice, and they do show progression, but they don't stand out as much as guys like Varlamov/Sorokin/Bobrovsky who were basically full time KHLers at this age as SeaOfBlue pointed out. Just looking at #s on EP, Shestyorkin and maybe Khudobin (although went CHL for last yr of junior eligibility) are closest comparables in terms of active NHLers, although I don't know how to account for differences in system (SKA > Kazan > Magnitogorsk in terms of strength) and time. We'll have to see how Akhtyamov's next 2 seasons go, but he does seem to be trending toward NHL goaltender as of now. Whether he ends up as a starter or #3 will depend on how he develops.

 

[Pholus]

Give me the links on elite prospects for those league numbers plz.

Because you are describing the only hockey league in the world where .930sv% is average.

I think .920sv% is average, but that's without differentiating between ~15 and 40+ games, and only looking at the regular season.

2018-19, Akhtyamov is 31 out of 75 for sv% with 10+ GP, though 6 ppl above him have <20 GP. Akhtyamov .921sv%, average roughly .918: Elite Prospects - MHL Stats 2018-2019

2019-20, Akhtyamov is 11 out of 85, 3 above him have <20GP. This is much better, Akhtyamov .931sv% with average ~.918 again: Elite Prospects - MHL Stats 2019-2020

2020-21, Akhtyamov only played 9 MHL games, but his .935sv% would be 7 out of 74, average is ~.914: Elite Prospects - MHL Stats 2020-2021
In the VHL, which is a pro league, Akhtyamov (.927sv% in only 14 GP, though his teammates are all under .912) is 14 out of 59 for 10+ GP, average is ~.917: Elite Prospects - VHL Stats 2020-2021

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Give me the links on elite prospects for those league numbers plz.

Because you are describing the only hockey league in the world where .930sv% is average.

Sort by All time / season and U20 for goaltenders if the link doesn't carry the filters. Same can be done for the VHL as well.
Elite Prospects - MHL Stats All-time season

 

[stickty111]

Assist for Holmberg

 

[Twine Tickler]

Ak Bars (KHL), Bars (VHL), and Irbis (MHL) are all in the same city, with the KHL and MHL teams sharing an arena. It's very easy for Akhtyamov to move between levels, as evidenced by last season where he spent the most time in the VHL, during the regular season at least. Based on Kazan's depth chart, I would expect him to begin the year as the VHL starter, so #3 in line for KHL playing time.

His raw numbers (GAA/save%) do look nice, and they do show progression, but they don't stand out as much as guys like Varlamov/Sorokin/Bobrovsky who were basically full time KHLers at this age as SeaOfBlue pointed out. Just looking at #s on EP, Shestyorkin and maybe Khudobin (although went CHL for last yr of junior eligibility) are closest comparables in terms of active NHLers, although I don't know how to account for differences in system (SKA > Kazan > Magnitogorsk in terms of strength) and time. We'll have to see how Akhtyamov's next 2 seasons go, but he does seem to be trending toward NHL goaltender as of now. Whether he ends up as a starter or #3 will depend on how he develops.

Ya I mean he does appear to be a bit boxed out at the moment. I also recognize that its hard to interpret KHL goaltending numbers, they all seem to be very solid for whatever reason. Like looking at Ilya Sorokin's KHL numbers for example, between 2014-2020 his highest GAA was 1.61 lol. I recognize he is a good goaltender, but those numbers are a joke. Not to mention in the 2014-15 season he split time between 2 franchises, where he posted a 3.25GAA on Novokuznnetsk and then a 1.31 with CSKA. I think that kind of illustrates just how skewed some of the KHL goaltending number really are TBH

Again, I know very little about the KHL, but I have heard there is unfair advantages given to some teams, CSKA being one of them. Whether its PP ratio's or strength of schedule/travel or anything in between. As you said, very challenging to compare goaltending numbers from team to team in the KHL let alone to another goaltender in a different league. Even KHL to VHL can be misleading. For example, it actually might be easier to tend the net for the KHL team CSKA than it is to tend the net for Bars in the VHL. Despite the increase in talent from the 2 leagues. All I do know is that he appears to have the raw athleticism, flexibility and reaction time that is required to be an NHL goaltender. It will just be a matter of refining that skillset to make the saves that much easier to make, whether that's being more positionally sound or just reading the play better. He is an interesting prospect IMO

 

[Orfieus]

The difference is this:

NHL Sandin looks very similar to AHL Sandin (stylistically). Sometimes gets burned wide due to lack of foot speed when changing direction, sometimes outmuscled defensively, but extremely confident in transition and makes high IQ decisions with the puck. Can control the ice at both levels.

NHL Liljegren and AHL Liljegren are totally different players. The latter is an elite AHL #1D and all-star who is solid in all three zones, but in the NHL he's slightly mentally behind, reacts a bit late, and has low confidence. He has not once shown any glimpse of being able to replicate his AHL play in the NHL, while Sandin has had extended periods of looking like a future top pair guy, until he makes a high profile gaffe. Not to say TL hasn't looked ok, just hasn't excelled per se.

Is that disparity due to small sample size/lack of opportunity, or an inability to adapt to NHL pace due to a decision-making problem? Remains to be seen, and although i'm very high on Liljegren still, this management group has done a pretty damn good job assessing their prospects to this point.

I stopped reading after the first few lines, Sandin looks similar because of his high IQ which transitioned well to the NHL. Liljegren is bigger and faster and I think might turn into the better Dman

Just because Sandin transitioned to the NHL faster doesn't mean he is the better Dman

edit: if Sandin can get a little bit faster we have a legit #1Dman but right now I see a top3 Dman

 

[Knies iT]

I stopped reading after the first few lines, Sandin looks similar because of his high IQ which transitioned well to the NHL. Liljegren is bigger and faster and I think might turn into the better Dman

Just because Sandin transitioned to the NHL faster doesn't mean he is the better Dman

edit: if Sandin can get a little bit faster we have a legit #1Dman but right now I see a top3 Dman

Once again, repeating exactly what I said.

 

[leafsfan2point0]

Was gonna reply to your initial post mentioning Askarov by saying he is far from refined but saw this.

Askarov is an exciting prospect because of his package of tools, size and athleticism but man, the guy is all over the place. He needs to learn to sit still sometimes. He makes some of these crazy saves because he is constantly throwing himself out of position. If he can show the composure of a Carey Price, we're talking about possibly the best goalie to ever play someday. And I've never seen a goalie lose his stick so much. I think he lost his stick more times in that one WJC game than I've lost in my whole life.

I get young MAF vibes

 

[daethfromabove1979]

Is Sandin that bad of a skater? I swear I never heard a peep about how awful his skating was until he got dusted by Paul Byron on a very nice goal, now it’s all I hear.

 

[LaPlante94]

Is Sandin that bad of a skater? I swear I never heard a peep about how awful his skating was until he got dusted by Paul Byron on a very nice goal, now it’s all I hear.

Speed wise he's always been slow. He just thinks the game very well so you don't notice it as much because he's usually positionally sound and good with his gap controls.

 

[Prominence]

Is Sandin that bad of a skater? I swear I never heard a peep about how awful his skating was until he got dusted by Paul Byron on a very nice goal, now it’s all I hear.

That was the knock on him even when he was drafted. It’s why dubas was able to trade back to get him. Undersized+ average skater were his criticisms.

 

[Leaf Fans]

That was the knock on him even when he was drafted. It’s why dubas was able to trade back to get him. Undersized+ average skater were his criticisms.

Not exactly, but kinda
Rasmus Sandin: 2018 NHL Draft Prospect Profile; A Mobile, Intelligent, Two-Way Defenseman (Sandin is far from a poor skater. He’s mobile, especially laterally. But I don’t think he possesses the elite separation that you’d like to see from a 5’11 defender who’s primary skill is puck movement.)
https://thehockeywriters.com/rasmus-sandin-2018-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/ (average speed)
Rasmus Sandin (Plays a physical game for his size but could stand to add some explosiveness to his stride.)
2018 NHL Draft prospect profile: Rasmus Sandin is a complete defenceman with great poise ( He also can impose himself physically in one-on-one coverage, and that despite his stature at 5'11”/ While Sandin isn't the fastest skater, he has good agility and acceleration.)

 

[daethfromabove1979]

 

[Morgs]

Amirov is PPG in the pre-season, no? Would be insane to see that transfer to the regular season.

 

[daethfromabove1979]

not so good, probably some kind of shoulder injury if I had to guess.

 

[BertCorbeau]

not so good, probably some kind of shoulder injury if I had to guess.

Oh FFS

 

[aingefan]

Oh FFS

My reaction precisely; sending good vibes to the kid.