Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread

[nuck]

Amirov looks like he’s a quite a bit more talented than Robertson.

Robertson played only 21 pro games in front of a ridiculous goalie carousel with a coach people seem to think is an idiot. Amirov may well be the better prospect but he was insulated on a much stronger team and had a much more normal development opportunity. This year's Robertson didn't look much like the all-world goal scorer of his D+1 and that's what makes him a potential high end player. Lets see where they are this coming mid-season with similar games played.

 

[weems]

Robertson played only 21 pro games in front of a ridiculous goalie carousel with a coach people seem to think is an idiot. Amirov may well be the better prospect but he was insulated on a much stronger team and had a much more normal development opportunity. This year's Robertson didn't look much like the all-world goal scorer of his D+1 and that's what makes him a potential high end player. Lets see where they are this coming mid-season with similar games played.

I dont see how this is accurate.

Amirov was routinely being deployed on his teams 3rd line and even had games late in the season where he saw less than 10 minutes (twice only playing 2 minutes in a playoff game).

That doesnt sound like "normal" development for a offensively skilled high first round pick to me.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Amirov looks like he’s a quite a bit more talented than Robertson.

Hard to say. I think they're fairly close in terms of playmaking and stickhandling, but Robertson has an elite shot. Amirov is a much safer prospect on account of his size and skating, and I think he plays a much more composed and calculated game overall. Robertson thrives on creating chaos for the other team and taking advantage of his ridiculous shot, but it's hard to say how projectable that is at the NHL level or how effective he'll be when he inevitably has to tone it down

 

[zeke]

Age 17

Vasilevskiy: MHL 27gms, .931 -- WJC 5gms, .953
Akhtyamov: MHL 54gms, .921
Shestyorkin: MHL 15gms, .920
Sorokin: MHL 27gms, .914 --- KHL 5gms, .919
Melnichuk: MHL 15gms, .915

Age 18

Vasilevskiy: MHL 27gms, .930 -- KHL 8gms, .924 -- WJC 4gms, .950
Akhtyamov: MHL 46gms, .931
Shestyorkin: MHL 23gms, .947 -- KHL 9gms, .903
Sorokin: MHL 4gms, .917 --- KHL 27gms, .911
Melnichuk: MHL 17gms, .924 - VHL 17gms, .932

Age 19

Vasilevskiy: KHL 28gms, .923 - WJC 6gms, .933
Akhtyamov: MHL 9gms, .935 - VHL 14gms, .927 - KHL 3gms, .904 - WJC 1gm, .944
Shestyorkin: MHL 3gms, .934 - VHL 8gms, .943 - KHL 6gms, .917 - WJC 5gm, .938
Sorokin: MHL 4gms, .927 - KHL 28gms, .910 - WJC 3gms, .886
Melnichuk: MHL 3gms, .873 - VHL 19gms, .935 - KHL 2gms, .900 - WJC 1gms, .750

Those are all the nhl goalies I can find that played in the mhl.

 

[hockeynorth]

Age 17

Vasilevskiy: MHL 27gms, .931 -- WJC 5gms, .953
Akhtyamov: MHL 54gms, .921
Shestyorkin: MHL 15gms, .920
Sorokin: MHL 27gms, .914 --- KHL 5gms, .919
Melnichuk: MHL 15gms, .915

Age 18

Vasilevskiy: MHL 27gms, .930 -- KHL 8gms, .924 -- WJC 4gms, .950
Akhtyamov: MHL 46gms, .931
Shestyorkin: MHL 23gms, .947 -- KHL 9gms, .903
Sorokin: MHL 4gms, .917 --- KHL 27gms, .911
Melnichuk: MHL 17gms, .924 - VHL 17gms, .932

Age 19

Vasilevskiy: KHL 28gms, .923 - WJC 6gms, .933
Akhtyamov: MHL 9gms, .935 - VHL 14gms, .927 - KHL 3gms, .904 - WJC 1gm, .944
Shestyorkin: MHL 3gms, .934 - VHL 8gms, .943 - KHL 6gms, .917 - WJC 5gm, .938
Sorokin: MHL 4gms, .927 - KHL 28gms, .910 - WJC 3gms, .886
Melnichuk: MHL 3gms, .873 - VHL 19gms, .935 - KHL 2gms, .900 - WJC 1gms, .750

Those are all the nhl goalies I can find that played in the mhl.

They all got better KHL time though other than Melnichuk

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Age 17

Vasilevskiy: MHL 27gms, .931 -- WJC 5gms, .953
Akhtyamov: MHL 54gms, .921
Shestyorkin: MHL 15gms, .920
Sorokin: MHL 27gms, .914 --- KHL 5gms, .919
Melnichuk: MHL 15gms, .915

Age 18

Vasilevskiy: MHL 27gms, .930 -- KHL 8gms, .924 -- WJC 4gms, .950
Akhtyamov: MHL 46gms, .931
Shestyorkin: MHL 23gms, .947 -- KHL 9gms, .903
Sorokin: MHL 4gms, .917 --- KHL 27gms, .911
Melnichuk: MHL 17gms, .924 - VHL 17gms, .932

Age 19

Vasilevskiy: KHL 28gms, .923 - WJC 6gms, .933
Akhtyamov: MHL 9gms, .935 - VHL 14gms, .927 - KHL 3gms, .904 - WJC 1gm, .944
Shestyorkin: MHL 3gms, .934 - VHL 8gms, .943 - KHL 6gms, .917 - WJC 5gm, .938
Sorokin: MHL 4gms, .927 - KHL 28gms, .910 - WJC 3gms, .886
Melnichuk: MHL 3gms, .873 - VHL 19gms, .935 - KHL 2gms, .900 - WJC 1gms, .750

Those are all the nhl goalies I can find that played in the mhl.

Age 17
Samsonov: MHL 18GMS, .918 - KHL 1GM, .500 - WJC 3GMS, .934
Varlamov: WJC 5GMS, .921
Age 18
Samsonov: KHL 19GMS, .925 - MHL 5GMS, .935 - WJC 2GMS, .956
Bobrovsky: KHL 8GMS, .893
Varlamov: KHL 33GMS, .920 - WJC 6GMS, .934
Age 19
Samsonov: KHL 27GMS, .936 - WJC 6GMS, .930
Bobrovsky: KHL 24GMS, .901 - WJC 6GMS, .919
Varlamov: KHL 44GMS, .909

(the name 'KHL/MHL' was only around since the early 2010's, but the league was still the same in the 2000's; it was just noted as "Russia" for KHL and "Russia-3" for MHL).

Melnichuk is a nobody at this point and the only one really comparable to Akhtyamov. It took some time for Shestyorkin to make the KHL, but I would give Akhtyamov more slack if he played for CSKA or St. Petersburg like Shestyorkin did (St. Petersburg), posted .950 save percentages at every level he's played at, and was a star starter in the WJC. Akhtyamov has not reached those levels and while Kazan is a tough team to crack, it is not at the level of a CSKA or St. Petersburg.

The others were KHL starters by age 19 (if not earlier in some cases), whereas Akhtyamov was #4 on the Kazan depth chart at 19.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

They all got better KHL time though other than Melnichuk

They also didn't have 2 weird seasons because of a global pandemic.

 

[aingefan]

Most of the knocks seem to come from outside of the organization and the fan base. Maybe we are all homers here but this year's sample was too small to matter and I really can't read a ton into his first taste of the show at age 20. There is no evidence of Keefe being a big fan but he had 3 veteran RD playing pretty well last year so not a priority to create developmental opportunity in addition to what they were trying to make happen with Sandin.

Duncan Keith was 22 for his first taste of the NHL. Stralman was probably not NHL ready until 23. Hjarmalsson became a full time NHLer at 22. There is nothing wrong with Lily's development curve so far however all three of these others stepped right into top 4 minutes at 22-23. Maybe he doesn't have Keith potential, but honestly Keith didn't look like it either at age 21. I don't know that he will be that guy this year but there is a chance. I hope he wins a spot in camp.

Also have to remember context , that his d+1&2 were against men in the AHL and included plenty of time lost to injury where most draftees are playing against kids, then there was the pandemic. All told, he’s played only about two seasons of hockey over those four years. And the coach’s read on him is abit tricky, I agree - but he sure played the hell out of him with the Marlies as I recall.

 

[Maplebeasts]

The difference is this:

NHL Sandin looks very similar to AHL Sandin (stylistically). Sometimes gets burned wide due to lack of foot speed when changing direction, sometimes outmuscled defensively, but extremely confident in transition and makes high IQ decisions with the puck. Can control the ice at both levels.

NHL Liljegren and AHL Liljegren are totally different players. The latter is an elite AHL #1D and all-star who is solid in all three zones, but in the NHL he's slightly mentally behind, reacts a bit late, and has low confidence. He has not once shown any glimpse of being able to replicate his AHL play in the NHL, while Sandin has had extended periods of looking like a future top pair guy, until he makes a high profile gaffe. Not to say TL hasn't looked ok, just hasn't excelled per se.

Is that disparity due to small sample size/lack of opportunity, or an inability to adapt to NHL pace due to a decision-making problem? Remains to be seen, and although i'm very high on Liljegren still, this management group has done a pretty damn good job assessing their prospects to this point.

Oh please. This year Liljegren played 2 games and put up terrific results. He was money with his stretch pass and showed great gap control. He was sent down not because he was bad but because there was no reason to keep him up with Bogo doing so well. You are over-rating Sandin's NHL play last season. He put up a decent number of points but was making a lot of mistakes defensively. He was also quite horrid in the playoffs. I love Sandin as much as most of us here, but he has some obvious issues with his game that need to be ironed out before he can play top 4.

 

[Knies iT]

Oh please. This year Liljegren played 2 games and put up terrific results. He was money with his stretch pass and showed great gap control. He was sent down not because he was bad but because there was no reason to keep him up with Bogo doing so well. You are over-rating Sandin's NHL play last season. He put up a decent number of points but was making a lot of mistakes defensively. He was also quite horrid in the playoffs. I love Sandin as much as most of us here, but he has some obvious issues with his game that need to be ironed out before he can play top 4.

Nothing you said here refutes my points. Literally repeated what I said in most cases.

Also, terrific results? Prove that.

 

[stickty111]

Nothing you said here refutes my points. Literally repeated what I said in most cases.

Also, terrific results? Prove that.

CF%: 68.18
SCF%: 69.23
HDCF%: 87.50
xGF%: 72.58
0 offensive zone starts

Both games were better in CF% and xGF% then any of his 11 games last year. He was really good. Obviously small sample size but even the eye test showed he was more comfortable.

 

[hockeynorth]

Kallgren is really probably our top goalie goalie prospect if we’re being honest

I’d have it:

Kallgren
Woll
Ahktyamov
Scott
Peksa

 

[Stephen]

I dont see how this is accurate.

Amirov was routinely being deployed on his teams 3rd line and even had games late in the season where he saw less than 10 minutes (twice only playing 2 minutes in a playoff game).

That doesnt sound like "normal" development for a offensively skilled high first round pick to me.

I don't think young skilled players typically get used the way you'd think in the KHL in offensive roles.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Nothing you said here refutes my points. Literally repeated what I said in most cases.

Also, terrific results? Prove that.

CF%: 68.18
SCF%: 69.23
HDCF%: 87.50
xGF%: 72.58
0 offensive zone starts

Both games were better in CF% and xGF% then any of his 11 games last year. He was really good. Obviously small sample size but even the eye test showed he was more comfortable.

Stickty got the gist of it. I would like to add that he also was not on the ice for a single goal against at even strength. He was MILES better than he was in the 11 games he got beforehand.

 

[Apex Predator]

I think most people remember liljegrens first stint and hold him to that.

 

[weems]

I don't think young skilled players typically get used the way you'd think in the KHL in offensive roles.

They dont and one of the reasons why its debatable if its the best enviroment for a young offensive draft pick to develop.

 

[nobody]

If Lilly didn't have bonuses in his contract and if we weren't in complete penny-pinching mode, he would've already been a Leafs regular by now. He's not getting snubbed by the team because he's a bad player or hasn't earned it. Believe me, if anyone has earned a shot at the show in this franchise, it's Lilly. No one has put up with more shit as a prospect with less opportunity since probably Kadri. Sandin has been an absolute stud for the Leafs and he's been developing well but what he lacks in toughness, grit and physicality, Lilly makes up for in spades. He's also a much better skater than Sandin.

If this brass wants to really set us up well for the future, I think both Lilly and Sandin should see significant time on the bottom pair. Dermott should be a top 4 if he's in the plans long term and Rielly is probably on his way out. If it really pans out for us, we have the potential first pairing in those two and Dermott can comfortably slide up and down the middle and bottom pairs.

 

[Knies iT]

CF%: 68.18
SCF%: 69.23
HDCF%: 87.50
xGF%: 72.58
0 offensive zone starts

Both games were better in CF% and xGF% then any of his 11 games last year. He was really good. Obviously small sample size but even the eye test showed he was more comfortable.

If we're measuring "terrific" play by underlying metrics then sure, in his two game sample size he had positive impact against two weak regular season teams. My post said he has been "ok" at the NHL level and that poster thought it was a slight. He kept his head above water and that's fine for a green defender but he wasn't exceptional whatsoever.

If he was this standout effective he would force his way into the lineup and Zach Bogosian would not block him. He'll be a nice top 4 D when all is said and done but he hasn't forced anyone's hand with his play at the NHL level yet and the eye test supports that. Needs more opportunity on the one hand but both Dermott and Sandin made more noise and stole a spot early in their call-ups. He can turn out better than both but that's based on his AHL play.

 

[Stephen]

They dont and one of the reasons why its debatable if its the best enviroment for a young offensive draft pick to develop.

Yeah, I remember getting into quite a thing with some KHL fans over the fact that the North American route ruins young skilled Russians. I think Amirov is still very young but if he came over the season after and can transition to the play style he will be expected to play in Toronto, that will help.

Typically, I don't think the KHL is in the business of nurturing young guys they know they'll lose to the NHL in short order.

 

[nuck]

I dont see how this is accurate.

Amirov was routinely being deployed on his teams 3rd line and even had games late in the season where he saw less than 10 minutes (twice only playing 2 minutes in a playoff game).

That doesnt sound like "normal" development for a offensively skilled high first round pick to me.

I think that's quite typical for a young player in the K. Mukhamadullin, Podkolzin, Kravstov, Dinisenko, Rubtsov and Gurianov were all first rounders who spent a lot more time watching when they could have been playing. For various reasons the Russian clubs are cheap with the ice time with teenagers, unlike the Finns and Swedes who will run any player as much as he can handle.

The K started their season at the usual time and played a full 60 games so business as usual except for fans. Robertson and his fellow OHL unfortunates didn't play anywhere until February and it was only a half seasons worth of games. Developmentally that would have been a big advantage for any of the Euros. Obviously St Petersburg treated Podkolzin better in the playoffs. I can't even speculate as to why Amirov was ghosted in the playoffs, maybe he pissed the coach off. That's why we want him over here unless there is some kind of loan commitment that they will use him to the level of his skill.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

This is false. There is nothing mediocre about a .930sv% in the MHL, nor a .927 in the VHL.




Please show your work.

Actually it is extremely mediocre. Especially considering how good of a system AK Bars has. In the 11 years of data elite prospects has, I counted 71 U20 goaltenders to put up at least a .930 SV%. That works out to 6-7 guys per year. Guys like Shesterkin and Vasilevsky were doing it at age 16.

Of the 43 U20 goaltenders to play a decent stretch in the VHL, roughly half of them put up at least a .920 SV%.

He needs to play in the KHL and put up some big numbers to really make some waves as a prospect.

 

[Stephen]

I've always had him far ahead of those two, personally. Those 2 aren't real prospects imo.

Akhtyamov has elite numbers at every level - good enough to get a taste of the KHL at age 18, which is not easy. Even gave Askarov a run for his money.

Scott basically has had one great year at 19 - and every other year has been awful. Woll was a just ok NCAA goalie and has never done anything else.

Hopefully Akhtyamov makes us sit up with a big developmental year. He was billed as being pretty good, not quite as refined as Askarov entering their draft year but then a lot of the polish came off of Askarov at the WJC's.

Maybe Akhtyamov can follow a Sheshterkin/Sorokin path. We can really use a break.

 

[hockeynorth]

Hopefully Akhtyamov makes us sit up with a big developmental year. He was billed as being pretty good, not quite as refined as Askarov entering their draft year but then a lot of the polish came off of Askarov at the WJC's.

Maybe Akhtyamov can follow a Sheshterkin/Sorokin path. We can really use a break.

I really don't remember anyone saying he was remotely close to Askarov, he was and still is the best goalie prospect since Price

 

[Stephen]

I really don't remember anyone saying he was remotely close to Askarov, he was and still is the best goalie prospect since Price

No, I should clarify that.

Akhtyamov was described as a good prospect who didn't have the high end refinement that Askarov demonstrated/was billed to have leading up to the draft. That's why he wasn'ta first round pick, and clearly he's not an Askarov level prospect.

Second, separate thought: Then again, Askarov ended up looking very raw at the WJC's himself. (Not trying to diminish Askarov, or draw equivalency) as Askarov my favorite prospect for the Leafs entering the 2020 draft.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I thought Keefe or someone had said Liljegren just needs time to adapt to the NHL game which was similar when he came over to the AHL.

Either way looks like the Leafs are ready to give him his shot this year. I think he'll do well. Once he gets settled he very well could ascend into the top 4 sooner than Sandin.