Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread

[stickty111]

Player Name	Age	Pos	League	GP	Points	PPG	NHLe	rel.CF%	Rel.FF%	ATOI	OZS%	oiSH%
Der-Arguchintsev, Semyon	20.22	C	KHL	10	5	0.50	25.297	-	-	14:04	-	-
Holmberg, Pontus	21.75	W	SHL	13	8	0.62	24.676	3.4%	4.9%	16:15	-	9.8%
Ovchinnikov, Dimitri	18.3	C/W	MHL	20	32	1.60	22.304	-	-	23:24	-	-
Rindell, Axel	20.62	RHD	Liiga	17	12	0.71	20.953	6.8%	-	20:07	48.8%	9.6%
Abramov, Mikhail	19.7	C	QMJHL	9	14	1.56	20.281	-	-	-	-	-
Kizimov, Semyon	20.88	W	VHL	11	9	0.82	18.047	-	-	15:35	-	-
Amirov, Rodion	19.18	W	KHL	23	8	0.35	17.598	-	-	13:56	-	-
Hallander, Filip	20.44	C/W	SHL	15	6	0.40	16.039	6.6%	4.0%	15:49	-	7.1%
Hirvonen, Roni	18.9	C/W	Liiga	20	9	0.45	13.358	-6.1%	-	15:40	49.7%	11.2%
Hollowell, Mac	22.19	RHD	Mestis	6	6	1.00	11.398	9.3%	-	22:08	44.7%	11.3%
Niemela, Topi	18.7	RHD	Liiga	9	3	0.33	9.8947	10.3%	-	14:18	63.2%	11.3%
Kral, Filip	21.13	LHD	CZE	10	3	0.30	9.7662	-4.3%	-	19:26	38.1%	-
Schingoethe, Wyatt	18.34	C	USHL	1	1	1.00	9.676	-	-	-	-	-
Kara, Vladislav	22.63	W	KHL	17	3	0.18	8.9284	-	-	12:59	-	-
Villeneuve, William	18.71	RHD	QMJHL	15	6	0.40	5.2152	-	-	-	-	-
Kokkonen, Mikko	19.88	LHD	Liiga	18	3	0.17	4.9473	7.2%	-	21:00	44.0%	7.6%
Koster, Mike	19.65	LHD	NCAA	4	1	0.25	4.7355	-	-	-	-	-
O'Connell, Ryan	21.62	LHD	NCAA	4	1	0.25	4.7355	-	-	-	-	-
Loponen, Kalle	19.73	RHD	Fin J20	22	16	0.73	4.3535	-	-	18:06	-	-
Miettinen, Veeti	19.21	W	NCAA	0	0	0.00	0	-	-	-	-	-
Miller, Joe	18.22	C/W	USHL	5	0	0.00	0	-	-	-	-	-
Rasanen, Eemeli	21.75	RHD	Liiga	12	0	0.00	0	-10.7%	-	15:16	43.2%	2.4%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I've changed the way I'm gonna update prospects each week (sorry @stickty111 haha). I've added a formula to keep up with their age, added their position, league, PPG, NHLe (taken from CJ Turtoro's NHL equivalency ratings). Gonna try and keep it up every sunday to see what the difference between each week, ranked by NHLe.

Haha no worries. I will still update as well, but you provide more detail then me.

 

[LeafChief]

Love the way @stickty111 and @Morgs keep this thread updated. You guys both provide different information so it's great to get it from both of you.

Other than a few cynics, the Prospects Thread on our forum seems to be the best in terms of back and forth conversation rather than bickering.

Great job guys.

 

[stickty111]

Love the way @stickty111 and @Morgs keep this thread updated. You guys both provide different information so it's great to get it from both of you.

Other than a few cynics, the Prospects Thread on our forum seems to be the best in terms of back and forth conversation rather than bickering.

Great job guys.

Thanks for the kind words

 

[Fogelhund]

Doesn't effect Abramov as he was going to miss a month anyways with the WJ. Affects Valleaueve(spelling?) though.
I think I will take a month off from the POW as well. With Niemela, Kokkonen, Abramov, Amirov, Hirvonen, Artur, Robertson going to WJ and now this news, it doesn't make sense to continue right now. Ovchinnkov would win every one as a result lol.

You could do a Leafs prospect at the WJC version.

 

[Kiwi]

Like I said earlier when you first brought it up. I'm a little concerned about it too, but it's nothing to worry about it yet. Glad a bunch of us see that!

It's funny though, I was going over our top prospects yesterday and comparing them to my post-draft list, and I actually thought Hallander has improved his stock in my book this season (still my 6th ranked) .

I knew he was a good play driver, but I didn't realize the level he was actually at. I think it's silly people are coming in here looking at his production and just dismissing him. I've watched him play 4 (maybe 3) games this season, his play driving is fantastic, his defensive awareness is ++, and he's one of those players that does all the little things right. Even if the production never comes I truly think he's got the ability to be a Pierre Engvall-type (strong defensive impact, but two-way) player in the NHL, but I'd say his upside is much (much) higher.

EDIT: Man I just looked at Engvall's last (and only) season in the SHL (D+3). Not only did he lead his VERY good team in CF%, he had a +8.8 rel.CF%. The guy was destined to be a play driver at the NHL level. Hallander's numbers are similar in and is over a year younger than that season.

People are dismissing him are they? Who's doing that and which posts?

I've said his offensive production is a concern and since your the king of statistics and aren't showing us why he's scoring at a bottom 6 pace ie, a brutal shooting percentage or puck luck your struggling to work out why he's not producing better with those play driving numbers as well

Engvall? He's a depth forward with serious offensive limitations

If that's the comparable were using at this point in time it would seem you have questions about his offense as well since Engvall is offensively challenged

 

[Prominence]

Edit: nvm

 

[stickty111]

People are dismissing him are they? Who's doing that and which posts?

I've said his offensive production is a concern and since your the king of statistics and aren't showing us why he's scoring at a bottom 6 pace ie, a brutal shooting percentage or puck luck your struggling to work out why he's not producing better with those play driving numbers as well

Engvall? He's a depth forward with serious offensive limitations

If that's the comparable were using at this point in time it would seem you have questions about his offense as well since Engvall is offensively challenged

First of all, calm down. Not sure why your getting upset. If there is one person I trust with analysis, it's @Morgs.
2nd, Hallander isn't someone who is known for his offense. What he does do is have a great well rounded game that will make him a 3rd liner even without the offense. He also doesn't get 1st PP time.
I mean he didn't use Engvall as a direct comparison.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Edit: nvm

Erik Haula
Anders Lee (was drafted as D+1 and played USHL as D+2)
Nick Abruzzese (hasn't made the NHL yet but was in the USHL as a D+2; also did not play HS hockey)
Mike Reilly
Miles Wood (spent two extra years in HS, which is quite surprising to me).
Ryan Donato
Jack Rathbone (went practically the same path as Fusco, but has been much better)
Zach Hyman
Jimmy Vesey (selected as a D+1 out of the EJHL, which is not exactly popular or anything; was mediocre as a HS DY guy and became one of the most prolific players in recent NCAA history).

There are likely more, especially if I dig into Jr. A, but this is just from Minnesota and Mass (minus Hyman, who was OJHL, and Abruzzese who was in Midget AAA at 18 so he came out of nowhere, but HS hockey in those two states is pretty competitive and these guys were among the best).

While I would say the chances of finding a guy who turns out if they are not going immediately into the NCAA is somewhat low, the chances of finding those kinds of guys outside of the first two rounds is probably even lower. I would be more selective about where they go (both school and especially conference) than if they decide to start in their D+2 year. An undersized guy like Miller can probably stand to have another year to bulk up anyways (he is going to Minnesota, which is great news), and Fusco was going to go to Harvard this year (as a D+2) had it not been for Covid (although I am not sure he is really worthy of a selection TBH). Schingoethe is going to Denver, which is much better than going to Notre Dame IMO (even if he has to spend an extra year in the USHL).

It can be very quick and easy to narrow down a ton of guys statistically though. Miller, Tverberg, and Schingoethe showed enough to warrant a late round flier (although I am sad that Tverberg is not going to Harvard anymore), especially with things running a bit thin near the end of the draft, but it is a matter of whether your scouts think they have a gem in mind as well, and whether there are certain things which hold a guy back (like it did for guys like James Hardie for example).

 

[Prominence]

Thanks for the response! I am just very wary for those selections.

 

[Morgs]

People are dismissing him are they? Who's doing that and which posts?

I've said his offensive production is a concern and since your the king of statistics and aren't showing us why he's scoring at a bottom 6 pace ie, a brutal shooting percentage or puck luck your struggling to work out why he's not producing better with those play driving numbers as well

Engvall? He's a depth forward with serious offensive limitations

If that's the comparable were using at this point in time it would seem you have questions about his offense as well since Engvall is offensively challenged

I did though? Guess it's hard to argue for a guy in two seperate threads. You dont remember where you posted what.

Filip Hallander (19)	Total
GP	27
Points	14
rel.CF%	4.5%
rel.FF%	4.5%
ATOI	15:50
OZS	-
oiSH%	10.8%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Filip Hallander (20)	Total
GP	15
Points	6
rel.CF%	6.6%
rel.FF%	4.0%
ATOI	15:49
OZS	-
oiSH%	7.1%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I think you're making this into something that it's not. Regardless of his production decreasing (0.51 PPG to 0.4 PPG) his play driving has increased in arguably the 2nd or 3rd best league in the world and a 2 point game would get him basically back to last years numbers. You may be able to blame the entire production drop on his oiSH%, but if you ask me, it seems more like he's just not one of the last 3 people to touch the puck this season. Great things happen when Hallander's on the ice, and like I said in the prospect thread literally yesterday: at the very worst he looks like he's going to be a guy who drives play the right direction but can never get over 3rd or 4th line production in the NHL. Still an extremely valuable player. Let's also remember, he's only 20 years old. He's doing the right things, the production still has a chance to come (and points are so, so, overrated).

I just don't think production is the be all end all at the end of the day. Production is nice, and it's something we expect from prospects we believe will make the NHL, but I think it doesn't take anything into context, especially with a guy like Hallander:

a) He's on a good team playing the 6th most minutes for forwards/game and 8th most PP minutes/game including defenseman. He doesn't play on the top-PP unit which will hurt anybody's overall production.
b) His team is fairly low scoring as is. The most points on the team are two defenseman that lead the team with a 0.87 ppg and 0.75 ppg. After watching a bunch of games you can see there is no "star" player like there is on Leksand or Skelleftea that is carrying the other players production.
c) his play driving is very good. He's on the 6th best CF% and 7th best FF% team. He's leading his entire team in CF% and 4th in FF%. When he's on the ice the puck goes the right direction consistently. Arguably a better play driver than anybody else on a playoff team in the SHL.
d) he's 20. I'd be far more worried about his future in NA if he was an empty calorie scorer (putting up points, horrible at driving play) than what he is now because it's clear Dubas is attempting to get rid of those types (Kapanen/Johnsson) and keeping the latter (Engvall). The production will definitely affect his overall ceiling, but even now his 6 points rank him 96th among forwards in the SHL. If you subscribe to the fact each team has three 1st line players, three 2nd line players, etc his production would be considered "2nd line".

EDIT: 3rd line production lmao.

 

[Morgs]

Erik Haula
Anders Lee (was drafted as D+1 and played USHL as D+2)
Nick Abruzzese (hasn't made the NHL yet but was in the USHL as a D+2; also did not play HS hockey)
Mike Reilly
Miles Wood (spent two extra years in HS, which is quite surprising to me).
Ryan Donato
Jack Rathbone (went practically the same path as Fusco, but has been much better)
Zach Hyman
Jimmy Vesey (selected as a D+1 out of the EJHL, which is not exactly popular or anything; was mediocre as a HS DY guy and became one of the most prolific players in recent NCAA history).

There are likely more, especially if I dig into Jr. A, but this is just from Minnesota and Mass (minus Hyman, who was OJHL, and Abruzzese who was in Midget AAA at 18 so he came out of nowhere, but HS hockey in those two states is pretty competitive and these guys were among the best).

While I would say the chances of finding a guy who turns out if they are not going immediately into the NCAA is somewhat low, the chances of finding those kinds of guys outside of the first two rounds is probably even lower. I would be more selective about where they go (both school and especially conference) than if they decide to start in their D+2 year. An undersized guy like Miller can probably stand to have another year to bulk up anyways (he is going to Minnesota, which is great news), and Fusco was going to go to Harvard this year (as a D+2) had it not been for Covid (although I am not sure he is really worthy of a selection TBH). Schingoethe is going to Denver, which is much better than going to Notre Dame IMO (even if he has to spend an extra year in the USHL).

It can be very quick and easy to narrow down a ton of guys statistically though. Miller, Tverberg, and Schingoethe showed enough to warrant a late round flier (although I am sad that Tverberg is not going to Harvard anymore), especially with things running a bit thin near the end of the draft, but it is a matter of whether your scouts think they have a gem in mind as well, and whether there are certain things which hold a guy back (like it did for guys like James Hardie for example).

Tbh I think it might be better for Tverberg going to UConn. Obviously not as good a school, but hockey east > ecac (no?), but the main reason is he has the ability to play in the NCAA this season, something he wasn't going to do with Harvard even if they were playing this year.

 

[Morgs]

In case anyone wants to watch Hallander (#51), he's playing right now against Skellefteå, another playoff team with Berggren who's crushing it this year.

Holmberg is playing Frölunda, the best team in the league.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Man, Hollowell is really too good for the 2nd tier Finnish league

 

[Fogelhund]

Man, Hollowell is really too good for the 2nd tier Finnish league

Probably still better for him, than playing Xbox.

 

[stickty111]

Man, Hollowell is really too good for the 2nd tier Finnish league

If Lilly and Sandin are in the taxi swuad for the Leafs. Moore should play Hollowell as the 1st pair d man. I think he might run away with it.

 

[Morgs]

Holmberg with an assist on the 2nd goal. 9 points in 14 games.

Oh jk. they took it away from him.

 

[stickty111]

You could do a Leafs prospect at the WJC version.

Not a bad idea but IDK how much details I would get in terms of stats. Could do a prospect of the day potentially.

 

[Morgs]

Hallander with a beautiful assist.

 

[Fogelhund]

Hallander with a beautiful assist.

Ya, that was a thing of beauty for sure. He's so responsible too, and in the right place a lot of the time.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I think Hallander has enough offense to not be a complete black hole, even if he's not particularly great at finishing plays. That was nice

 

[Fogelhund]

Not a bad idea but IDK how much details I would get in terms of stats. Could do a prospect of the day potentially.

Best prospect of the round robin. Best prospect of the "playoff rounds".....

 

[stickty111]

Hallander's offensive skills are decent. He just isn't the kind of player to take initiative. Not a bad thing but it will be nice if he was a bit aggressive.

 

[Morgs]

That pass on the PP was real nice too.

He honestly could have 3 assists today if the goalie didn't make two huge saves on guys in the slot.

 

[stickty111]

Ya, that was a thing of beauty for sure. He's so responsible too, and in the right place a lot of the time.

Been saying that for a couple days. The guy is so well rounded he should be a 3rd liner. If the offense comes, then 2nd liner.

 

[stickty111]

Best prospect of the round robin. Best prospect of the "playoff rounds".....

Good idea. Thanks.