Girard is a stud, but I think it’s a misperception that drafting for pure skill on D is a more likely hit. Most of the valuable defencemen available after the first round are more in the Edmundson, Mayfield, Cernak, Pesce mould. Physical specimens with projectable hockey sense are the better bet. Even with how special Girard is, a player like Pelech on the Isles is more valuable, just plays a quieter game.
Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread - Who ordered a taxi?
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Stephen
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Yeah agreed. Draft those special talents with high IQ at the top of the draft and be selective about those hidden gems who may have fallen through the cracks. But for every Brayden Point there's a dozen Nic Petan's, so be deliberate.
On the other end of the spectrum, guys like Luke Schenn aren't the kind of players you want to invest a top 5 pick on, but if you find one or two every once in a while in the 4-7th rounds that's definitely a player that can help the big club.
I think this board will lose it when we draft stankhoven, tichacek, and kuzmin.
Leaf Fans
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Stankhoven might be gone, but the other two are possibilities. Smallish players l, but Demetri Kuzmin plays bigger. Good skill though. If Logan is still there when we draft, Take him.
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SeaOfBlue
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Stankoven would be an excellent pick with our 2nd. Kuzmin would be a reach and Tichacek is not a draftable prospect.
Most of the guys in our range are not huge but they are not small either.
I could honestly see Stankoven going in the 1st round. His B rating is a complete undersell for what he provided with only 3rd line minutes. Dynamic offensive package with 1st round talent, but obvious size concerns.
The one player i'm absolutely sold on in the 2nd round is Tyler Boucher. He will be an NHLer. I've been a big fan of Dubas' work in the top ~60 of the draft so far, and a pick like Boucher would go against his MO, but his package is way more tantalizing than some of the previous years' physical 2nd rounders in Greenway, Grundstrom, Tuch, Cuylle, Rees, Noel, etc. He has better puck skills and skating than any of those names (especially at at top speed with the puck), not to mention he's comfortably the most physical player in this draft.
I honestly see Tom Wilson lite potential in Boucher. May not have the sexy IQ of other skilled options in that range, but his physical package + skating is so standout that he could be a very rare top 9 piece on an NHL team.
nuck
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Yeah I like this guy quite a bit. I don't think Dubas is married to pygmies and there is some definite skill here.
Tyler Boucher at eliteprospects.com
SeaOfBlue
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I have Stankoven going top 25. That is why I am saying it would be huge if we got him at 58.
I like Boucher as well. I have him top 75 even though he had an injury that cost him most of the year. I don't think he has top 6 upside but I can see him becoming a really good 3rd liner, which is good value for the late 2nd/early 3rd. He is the kind of guy who should be above average in pretty much everything but can still develop a few stand out qualities that can make him have a really nice career.
I feel like Jayden Grubbe is very similar in that regard. Leader, good in both ends, big, physical, has good offensive skill, etc. I think he can become a legit top 6 forward if things go right for him.
stickty111
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This is my end of season prospect breakdown. Bolded is the new info for this season.
#18. Pontus Holmberg
Last Season Rank-18
Overview
Holmberg might be the prospect of the year in the Leafs system with his MVP performance in the SHL playoffs. He is one of my personal favourites in the system. He also might one of the more interesting ones. Leafs didn’t have a 6th round pick in the draft, but got one when they traded for the pick. Buffalo Sabres received future considerations in the deal which ended up becoming the Leafs 6th round selection in 2019, 177th overall. Leafs clearly targeted Holmberg in that they traded for the pick, and selected him 156th overall. Holmberg was possibly a recommendation by Tommy Bergman. Holmberg has played in the SHL for Vaxjo the last couple seasons, and despite a minimal role in each season, has shown decent growth there in terms of his production. He also played for Sweden in the WJC in the 18/19 season, but was held pointless in 5 games. Holmberg really broke out this season with the best production in his career. He then stepped it up a level in the playoffs. Leafs signed him to an ELC this off season.
Stats
2018/2019
SHL
GP: 47
Goals: 3
Assists: 7
Points: 10
Rating: -2
TOI: 13:11
CF%: 60.31
2019/2020
SHL
GP: 52
Goals: 7
Assists: 10
Points: 17
Rating: +18
TOI: 13:14
CF%: 49.51
2020/2021
SHL(regular season)
GP: 45
Goals: 9
Assists: 14
Points: 23
Rating: +9
TOI: 16:13
CF%: 55.59
SHL(Playoffs)
GP: 14
Goals: 7
Assists: 7
Points: 14
Rating: +10
TOI: 16:48
CF%: 50:59
Statistical Analysis
In the 1st season where he was 11th in ice time among forwards, Holmberg had decent production while receiving no PP time. In terms of PPG, he was outside the top 10 among forwards. This makes it seem he wasn’t all that great in terms of pure production which would be fair, but again factor in the low ice time with 0 PP time, it’s actually decent. The stat that really sticks out is his 60.31 CF%. Thankfully unlike other leagues, SHL actually tracks these advanced metrics which helps us read the players performance better. Using only the players who played at least 10 games, Holmberg had the 2nd best CF% on the team, and 7th highest in the entire league. He drove play at an amazing level. At the same time, his PDO was at .95 which represents he was unlucky. This might be shown in his production.
Moving on to this season, Holmberg’s production nearly doubled while playing only 5 more games than last season. His TOI was pretty much identical, and just like last season, he had no PP time. He was also +18 compared to -2 last season. Plus minus isn’t good to look at alone, so can’t really tell much from it, but that number is quite a jump. His possession numbers however fell off the map this season. This season he was barely staying afloat in terms of CF%. At the same time, Vaxjo’s team CF% fell from 54 to 50, so that may have something to do with it. Holmberg’s PDO also rose to 1.01
Holmberg broke out this season having his best season to date in production. He had 6 more points this season in 7 less games played. His possession numbers also had an uptick after declining last season. His Rel CF this season was +5.47 compared to -1.16 last year. Even though it was good improvement, his play in the playoffs is what got people paying attention. He went PPG through 14 games scoring 7 goals and assisting in 7. His effort got him MVP honors in the process and also was rewarded with an ELC.
The good thing from Holmberg is he has improved his production every year, and this season he finally started getting good ice time playing just over 16 mins a game.
Talent Analysis
Breakdown of grades:
1- Poor
2- Below average
3- Average
4- Good
5- Great
Player Grades: Present/Future
Skating: 4/4
Shot: 1.5/2
Puck Skills: 3/3
Compete: 3.5/3.5
Defence: 3.5/3.5
Smarts/IQ: 4/4
note: Puck skills includes passing ability, puck control and creating
I got Scott Wheeler’s grades on this player, and then came up with a final grade based on other people’s opinion.
Skating is easily Holmberg’s best attribute. He is a good north south skater and laterally as well, and is pretty quick player. He can change direction quickly with the puck. If there is one thing he could get better here, Holmberg could get a step faster.
Holmberg is a pure playmaker. He shows flashes of being a great playmaker and finding teammates for scoring opportunities, but with lack of PP time, it’s tough to evaluate how good it might actually be. Many scouting people he is a creative player. His shot is not worth talking about. It needs to get much better, and I believe it will. Some shooting instruction and he could get it to below average. He has the skillset to play on the PP and be of value offensively.
This one is found interesting. For someone his size, he is actually pretty strong in the corners and has underrated strength. Part of that is strength alone, but some of that is work ethic and Holmberg does seem have decent work ethic.
Holmberg is fine defensively. He gets a 3 which is not a bad thing. To me, 3 is you do your job and don’t hurt the team, which is more than good enough. Average is usually good enough for a player in the NHL of course depending on the other tools. Holmberg is a smart player. Corey Pronman has mentioned he has “big time smarts”. He makes the right play with the puck or off the puck. His IQ is his biggest strength. He seems to make the right play on both ends.
My future projection: There are some above average tools here with IQ sticking out the most. All Holmberg done is progress every season in a good league, and his playoffs show there is upside to the player. He is expected to return to the SHL next season, so that will tell whether the playoffs production was an anomaly or there is something there. I think there is NHL potential here.
NHL Player? Yes
#18. Pontus Holmberg
Last Season Rank-18
Overview
Holmberg might be the prospect of the year in the Leafs system with his MVP performance in the SHL playoffs. He is one of my personal favourites in the system. He also might one of the more interesting ones. Leafs didn’t have a 6th round pick in the draft, but got one when they traded for the pick. Buffalo Sabres received future considerations in the deal which ended up becoming the Leafs 6th round selection in 2019, 177th overall. Leafs clearly targeted Holmberg in that they traded for the pick, and selected him 156th overall. Holmberg was possibly a recommendation by Tommy Bergman. Holmberg has played in the SHL for Vaxjo the last couple seasons, and despite a minimal role in each season, has shown decent growth there in terms of his production. He also played for Sweden in the WJC in the 18/19 season, but was held pointless in 5 games. Holmberg really broke out this season with the best production in his career. He then stepped it up a level in the playoffs. Leafs signed him to an ELC this off season.
Stats
2018/2019
SHL
GP: 47
Goals: 3
Assists: 7
Points: 10
Rating: -2
TOI: 13:11
CF%: 60.31
2019/2020
SHL
GP: 52
Goals: 7
Assists: 10
Points: 17
Rating: +18
TOI: 13:14
CF%: 49.51
2020/2021
SHL(regular season)
GP: 45
Goals: 9
Assists: 14
Points: 23
Rating: +9
TOI: 16:13
CF%: 55.59
SHL(Playoffs)
GP: 14
Goals: 7
Assists: 7
Points: 14
Rating: +10
TOI: 16:48
CF%: 50:59
Statistical Analysis
In the 1st season where he was 11th in ice time among forwards, Holmberg had decent production while receiving no PP time. In terms of PPG, he was outside the top 10 among forwards. This makes it seem he wasn’t all that great in terms of pure production which would be fair, but again factor in the low ice time with 0 PP time, it’s actually decent. The stat that really sticks out is his 60.31 CF%. Thankfully unlike other leagues, SHL actually tracks these advanced metrics which helps us read the players performance better. Using only the players who played at least 10 games, Holmberg had the 2nd best CF% on the team, and 7th highest in the entire league. He drove play at an amazing level. At the same time, his PDO was at .95 which represents he was unlucky. This might be shown in his production.
Moving on to this season, Holmberg’s production nearly doubled while playing only 5 more games than last season. His TOI was pretty much identical, and just like last season, he had no PP time. He was also +18 compared to -2 last season. Plus minus isn’t good to look at alone, so can’t really tell much from it, but that number is quite a jump. His possession numbers however fell off the map this season. This season he was barely staying afloat in terms of CF%. At the same time, Vaxjo’s team CF% fell from 54 to 50, so that may have something to do with it. Holmberg’s PDO also rose to 1.01
Holmberg broke out this season having his best season to date in production. He had 6 more points this season in 7 less games played. His possession numbers also had an uptick after declining last season. His Rel CF this season was +5.47 compared to -1.16 last year. Even though it was good improvement, his play in the playoffs is what got people paying attention. He went PPG through 14 games scoring 7 goals and assisting in 7. His effort got him MVP honors in the process and also was rewarded with an ELC.
The good thing from Holmberg is he has improved his production every year, and this season he finally started getting good ice time playing just over 16 mins a game.
Talent Analysis
Breakdown of grades:
1- Poor
2- Below average
3- Average
4- Good
5- Great
Player Grades: Present/Future
Skating: 4/4
Shot: 1.5/2
Puck Skills: 3/3
Compete: 3.5/3.5
Defence: 3.5/3.5
Smarts/IQ: 4/4
note: Puck skills includes passing ability, puck control and creating
I got Scott Wheeler’s grades on this player, and then came up with a final grade based on other people’s opinion.
Skating is easily Holmberg’s best attribute. He is a good north south skater and laterally as well, and is pretty quick player. He can change direction quickly with the puck. If there is one thing he could get better here, Holmberg could get a step faster.
Holmberg is a pure playmaker. He shows flashes of being a great playmaker and finding teammates for scoring opportunities, but with lack of PP time, it’s tough to evaluate how good it might actually be. Many scouting people he is a creative player. His shot is not worth talking about. It needs to get much better, and I believe it will. Some shooting instruction and he could get it to below average. He has the skillset to play on the PP and be of value offensively.
This one is found interesting. For someone his size, he is actually pretty strong in the corners and has underrated strength. Part of that is strength alone, but some of that is work ethic and Holmberg does seem have decent work ethic.
Holmberg is fine defensively. He gets a 3 which is not a bad thing. To me, 3 is you do your job and don’t hurt the team, which is more than good enough. Average is usually good enough for a player in the NHL of course depending on the other tools. Holmberg is a smart player. Corey Pronman has mentioned he has “big time smarts”. He makes the right play with the puck or off the puck. His IQ is his biggest strength. He seems to make the right play on both ends.
My future projection: There are some above average tools here with IQ sticking out the most. All Holmberg done is progress every season in a good league, and his playoffs show there is upside to the player. He is expected to return to the SHL next season, so that will tell whether the playoffs production was an anomaly or there is something there. I think there is NHL potential here.
NHL Player? Yes
I thought his skating was average when I saw him 2 years ago. It must have improved drastically.
stickty111
Registered User
- Jan 23, 2017
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Stephen
Moderator
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Half serious question. But with the search on for cheap talent, do the Leafs circle back to 24 year old RFA Denis Malgin? I don't like the player at all from what little we've seen of him, but seems like they spammed the trade without really getting a very good look at him.
With a player like malgin, i wouldn’t be surprised if they signed him for league minimum. He’s not good enough to be top 12, but can fill in for a couple of games due to injury. If he gets waived, no one will claim him and if they do, they must be very desperate. He’s basically martin marincin.
SeaOfBlue
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Could fit as our 3RW. Plays a lot like Johnsson but with better hands and Malgin's shot has improved so he should be more effective than he was before.
He played in our division, played with Matthews in Zurich, and played under Paul MacFarland in Florida, where Malgin was featured on his PP... The Leafs knew what they were getting in him.
EDIT: The Leafs could go into the year with a 3RW competition between Malgin and Joey Anderson. Two league minimum guys beside some guys who will likely be more proven and higher quality.
acrobaticgoalie
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- Jun 18, 2014
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I know he hasn't shown a whole lot but I'm hoping he can have a breakout like Fiala did for Minny. He has some skill and showed some nice promise as a prospect for Florida. Even if he comes back as a 13th forward making league minimum, its no big deal.
I'd give him a shot. If they look to revamp their bottom-six with more offensive punch. I think he has more to show than he did in his 8 games with Toronto a few seasons ago.
If this was a UFA we signed out of Europe at 24, I'm sure we'd all be penciling him into the lineup much like they did Barbanov or Mikheyev.
JFJ ran the draft from 2004 to 2007 and considering the picks he had did quite well. The 2006 draft in particular he did very well. The rest of the JFJ era was a mess but that's a whole other story.
If Dubas can achieve JFJ's drafting record we should be in good shape for depth pieces.
Early indications are Dubas has already massively improved upon Hunter's drafting.
Consider that Hunter was billed as a draft guru but somehow missed horribly on guys in his own backyard (OHL) when he traded down when Konecny was on the board and the next year decided to take a slow skating Korshov who had already been passed over in the draft at 31 over Kyrou & DeBrincat who went shortly after. Meanwhile Dubas in his first two drafts he used his top pick on guys in his own backyard in Sandin at 29 & the next year on Robertson at 53 and both are widely considered top 20-30 prospects by league insiders.
Nobody is anointing Dubas administration as the Club Mensa of drafting but even the most pessimistic person has to see it has substantially improved.
Stephen
Moderator
- Feb 28, 2002
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My theory is early returns always look good whenever you look at GM regime changes impacting the draft but the real test will always be meaningful NHL promotions on a longer time scale.
Ahahahahahhahaha
You clearly haven’t seen the litany of threads where if you even express an objective opinion of dubas, you get gaslighted, insulted, accused of not using facts. That’s good cuz your mental health is intact. There were also posts in this thread saying we need to draft more size from a week ago (not stephen’s cuz his were about diversification).
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Leaf Fans
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Vehvilian is a pending RFA while Barabanov is a pending UFA. I think VV will re-sign with the Leafs while Barabanov is San Jose's problem.
Leaf Fans
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SeaOfBlue
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We don't have room for VV unless we move some goalies.
Hutch, Woll, Scott, Kallgren, VV.
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