Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread - Who ordered a taxi?

[SeaOfBlue]

Many of the recent late round steals around the league are not just undersized guys though. You need to draft a variety of different player styles, not just undersized offensive guys. Valuable players come in a lot of different packages. I think the biggest problem with the Dubas drafts is that most of the picks are redundant and have a narrow avenue to making contributions in the NHL. I also think the scouting team focuses too much on junior production and not enough on athletic tools and long term projection

Who says that is what Dubas drafts or targets? Not all small players are offensive minded players. He targets complete, intelligent players as much as possible. Some are more offensively oriented (i.e. Miettinen) but a lot of them (Niemela, Hirvonen, etc.) are just as good in their own end as they are in the offensive end.

A lot of the late round steals you find are extremely high IQ players who put things together with time. They may have needed work on some skills (usually skating), or developed physically (either by growing or adding muscle), but I can practically guarantee that the vast majority of them were able to process the game at high levels at the time they were drafted. That is why Dubas targets those players. It just so happens that most, but not all, of the guys who ended up meeting that criteria were smaller guys who need to grow and develop physically (because if they didn't, they wouldn't be late round steals).

 

[baton elevated]

Many of the recent late round steals around the league are not just undersized guys though. You need to draft a variety of different player styles, not just undersized offensive guys. Valuable players come in a lot of different packages. I think the biggest problem with the Dubas drafts is that most of the picks are redundant and have a narrow avenue to making contributions in the NHL. I also think the scouting team focuses too much on junior production and not enough on athletic tools and long term projection

Exactly, if you have half a dozen maybe more players of the same quality and make up, the chances are that only 1 maybe 2 can be developed into a player capable of unseating an incumbent.

 

[FrankGallagher]

Exactly, if you have half a dozen maybe more players of the same quality and make up, the chances are that only 1 maybe 2 can developed into a player capable of unseating an incumbent.

Look at Tampa, they’ve had success with guys like Point and Gourde who are I think right up the leafs alley in the draft. But they’ve also had success with guys like Cirelli and Cernak who we wouldn’t touch with a 10 foot pole in the draft. You need to be looking for players with special traits, those come in a ton of different playstyles. And players with those different playstlyles are what you need to build a winning team

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Look at Tampa, they’ve had success with guys like Point and Gourde who are I think right up the leafs alley in the draft. But they’ve also had success with guys like Cirelli and Cernak who we wouldn’t touch with a 10 foot pole in the draft. You need to be looking for players with special traits, those come in a ton of different playstyles. And players with those different playstlyles are what you need to build a winning team

Anthony Cirelli was 5'11", 160lbs when he was drafted. He has extremely high IQ, two-way ability, and works hard.

He is a prototypical Dubas pick.

 

[FrankGallagher]

Anthony Cirelli was 5'11", 160lbs when he was drafted. He has extremely high IQ, two-way ability, and works hard.

He is a prototypical Dubas pick.

He was a first year junior player who was a third liner on a powerhouse junior team who put up 36 points in 68 games. Was considered a potential third line checking centre if things broke right. May have to agree to disagree but I don’t think we’d be taking him

 

[Stephen]

Anthony Cirelli was 5'11", 160lbs when he was drafted. He has extremely high IQ, two-way ability, and works hard.

He is a prototypical Dubas pick.

There’s a wide gap between what Dubas is trying to do and what other teams have successfully accomplished. Remains to be seen and until these guys break in and compliment the team, the jury is out.

It would be like calling Eemeli Rasanen a Hunter smash hit because he was trying to draft his Colton Parakyo.

 

[Prominence]

According to elite prospects, ryan tverberg is listed as 6’0”. I think i’m going to start spreading the good word whenever someone mentions we need to draft for size.

 

[weems]

According to elite prospects, ryan tverberg is listed as 6’0”. I think i’m going to start spreading the good word whenever someone mentions we need to draft for size.

What a great flyer that pick looks to be.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

There’s a wide gap between what Dubas is trying to do and what other teams have successfully accomplished. Remains to be seen and until these guys break in and compliment the team, the jury is out.

It would be like calling Eemeli Rasanen a Hunter smash hit because he was trying to draft his Colton Parakyo.

If the Leafs continuously draft players with the right package of skills and IQ, at least some of them will turn out... Otherwise we have a terrible development department or you completely misidentified the package like you just did with Rasanen. If we drafted Rasanen with the idea that he was going to have the requisite IQ to be a Parayko, then we need to look at drafting because it did not take very long to figure out that Hunter was completely off (or did not care) when it came to Rasanen's IQ. At this point, that has not happened very often with Dubas' scouting staff. A lot of the prospects' packages are as advertised, and now we need to develop their skills to get them to reach their drafted potential.

Drafting and developing are connected, but they are not the same thing. You can have the best scouting team in the league and not develop a single great prospect if you have a bunch of skill developers who suck. Conversely, you can have the best skill development department but not develop a single great prospect if they all lack the packages to develop into those great players. NHL teams can tell the difference between the two, and that may even be why the Leafs decided to move on from Pellerin + Robidas in favour of Wickenheiser.

 

[stickty111]

Cirelli is exactly the kind of pick Dubas would make.
People just fit Dubas into a certain type of thinking and that is undersized skill. They just ignore the main quality of Dubas picks and thats hockey IQ. Holmberg, Abruzzese are perfect examples of that. Tverberg is the pick people seem to want, yet they just forget or ignore him. For a small player, he is really physical and has good functional tools as well.

 

[Stephen]

If the Leafs continuously draft players with the right package of skills and IQ, at least some of them will turn out... Otherwise we have a terrible development department or you completely misidentified the package like you just did with Rasanen. If we drafted Rasanen with the idea that he was going to have the requisite IQ to be a Parayko, then we need to look at drafting because it did not take very long to figure out that Hunter was completely off (or did not care) when it came to Rasanen's IQ. At this point, that has not happened very often with Dubas' scouting staff. A lot of the prospects' packages are as advertised, and now we need to develop their skills to get them to reach their drafted potential.

Drafting and developing are connected, but they are not the same thing. You can have the best scouting team in the league and not develop a single great prospect if you have a bunch of skill developers who suck. Conversely, you can have the best skill development department but not develop a single great prospect if they all lack the packages to develop into those great players. NHL teams can tell the difference between the two, and that may even be why the Leafs decided to move on from Pellerin + Robidas in favour of Wickenheiser.

I’m not buying this new era draft and development hype like we have the Club Mensa of players. The Dubas era hasn’t really produced any quality or quantity of prospect we haven’t seen since the JFJ days, which a steady stream of decent but unremarkable players coming out of the draft past the first round:

Reimer
Gunnarsson
Stralman
Komarov
Stahlberg
Leivo
Brown
Johnsson
Verhaeghe
Kulemin

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

I’m not buying this new era draft and development hype like we have the Club Mensa of players. The Dubas era hasn’t really produced any quality or quantity of prospect we haven’t seen since the JFJ days, which a steady stream of decent but unremarkable players coming out of the draft past the first round:

Reimer
Gunnarsson
Stralman
Komarov
Stahlberg
Leivo
Brown
Johnsson
Verhaeghe
Kulemin

Believe it or not players drafted in later rounds take time to develop. Which is why nuking the Hunter/Lou drafts in 16/17 really hurt now.

A lot of the players in those drafts are just starting to come into the league now and a lot of teams drafted much better than us. It created a void in our prospect pool.

The players from the Dubas drafts are just starting to enter the age where they can make an impact for the Marlies but most of them are trending extremely well so far and with 12 picks last year our near NHL ready pool should be one of the best ones within a year or so. Even with Robertson/Sandin/Liljegren making the jump.

 

[Stephen]

Believe it or not players drafted in later rounds take time to develop. Which is why nuking the Hunter/Lou drafts in 16/17 really hurt now.

A lot of the players in those drafts are just starting to come into the league now and a lot of teams drafted much better than us. It created a void in our prospect pool.

The players from the Dubas drafts are just starting to enter the age where they can make an impact for the Marlies but most of them are trending extremely well so far and with 12 picks last year our near NHL ready pool should be one of the best ones within a year or so. Even with Robertson/Sandin/Liljegren making the jump.

What typically happens as these prospects filter up is you’ll see a levelling off of progress which is normal. But my original concern is we’re just drafting and developing guys in volume who will not compliment the needs of the big team over the next 2-3 years. Agree to disagree.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Rebuilding the prospect pool despite trading away multiple picks and prospects is probably the best thing Dubas has been able to do. The best teams are ones with ELC contributors, and Hunter badly dropped the ball in providing those for the Leafs. That should start to get a lot better from here on out

 

[Martin Skoula]

What typically happens as these prospects filter up is you’ll see a levelling off of progress which is normal. But my original concern is we’re just drafting and developing guys in volume who will not compliment the needs of the big team over the next 2-3 years. Agree to disagree.

I don't know that the goal is drafting the next Wilson to stick on Matthews' wing as much as it is drafting guys who can replace 90% of Kerfoot's role at 25% of the cost and using that space to pick up Coleman/Goodrow types, hopefully before they break out. Ideally we'd also be able to move pieces like Hyman ahead of time knowing that we have someone ready to step in on an ELC. It's just a shame that we only hit Grundstrom outside the 1st round for forwards under Hunter, we should have a wave of 23 year olds who know the system ready to step in right now but instead we have to try 20 year old Robertson.

 

[Stephen]

I don't know that the goal is drafting the next Wilson to stick on Matthews' wing as much as it is drafting guys who can replace 90% of Kerfoot's role at 25% of the cost and using that space to pick up Coleman/Goodrow types, hopefully before they break out. Ideally we'd also be able to move pieces like Hyman ahead of time knowing that we have someone ready to step in on an ELC. It's just a shame that we only hit Grundstrom outside the 1st round for forwards under Hunter, we should have a wave of 23 year olds who know the system ready to step in right now but instead we have to try 20 year old Robertson.

I wouldn’t say the criteria is to build an army of Tom Wilson’s, though to be honest, that wouldn’t be the worst supporting cast when push comes to shove. But look at Boston’s mix. They have guys like Matt Grcelyk and Torey Krug but they also develop guys like Brandon Carlo and Adam McQuaid. At forward they have guys like Jack Studnicka who would have the skillset and frame to take a bottom six job with room for promotion.

Tampa Bay has an army of little guys up front which they have drafted developed and promoted for the past half dozen years but they also have a handful of redwoods on defense where they don’t compromise in size for other traits.

What I want to see moving forward is just a more thoughtful blend of sizes and positions.

 

[Martin Skoula]

I wouldn’t say the criteria is to build an army of Tom Wilson’s, though to be honest, that wouldn’t be the worst supporting cast when push comes to shove. But look at Boston’s mix. They have guys like Matt Grcelyk and Torey Krug but they also develop guys like Brandon Carlo and Adam McQuaid. At forward they have guys like Jack Studnicka who would have the skillset and frame to take a bottom six job with room for promotion.

Tampa Bay has an army of little guys up front which they have drafted developed and promoted for the past half dozen years but they also have a handful of redwoods on defense where they don’t compromise in size for other traits.

What I want to see moving forward is just a more thoughtful blend of sizes and positions.

I'm not against drafting size, it's a big component of how ready a guy is going to be in our competitive window. But that size has to come with other strengths. Taking Korshkov and Rasanen really hurt our pipeline IMO, those are two picks that should have been contributing in our middle-6/bottom-4 right now. Taking an Abramov/Abruzesse/Niemela in 2015/2016 and having them slot in after graduating 2-3 years of Marlies games would give us a lot more freedom to take home run swings on (better) Korshkovs and Rasanens without needing to worry how fast they'll be ready to contribute.

In Tampa's case, I'd argue that having a pipeline of little forwards that can do a 3+ million dollar job for 750k is a big part of the flexibility that let them get McDonagh and rent guys like Savard/Goodrow/Coleman.

 

[Stephen]

I'm not against drafting size, it's a big component of how ready a guy is going to be in our competitive window. But that size has to come with other strengths. Taking Korshkov and Rasanen really hurt our pipeline IMO, those are two picks that should have been contributing in our middle-6/bottom-4 right now. Taking an Abramov/Abruzesse/Niemela in 2015/2016 and having them slot in after graduating 2-3 years of Marlies games would give us a lot more freedom to take home run swings on (better) Korshkovs and Rasanens without needing to worry how fast they'll be ready to contribute.

In Tampa's case, I'd argue that having a pipeline of little forwards that can do a 3+ million dollar job for 750k is a big part of the flexibility that let them get McDonagh and rent guys like Savard/Goodrow/Coleman.

Well, the thing is the Leafs did take Abramov/Abruzesse/Niemela type players. Their names are Bracco, Timashov, Dzierkals, Brooks. It's just if those player types don't break out as at least middle six options, they're not likely to give you very much else. Ironically enough, a prospect like Mason Marchment can come in on a lower line in a pinch and give you some Wayne Simmonds flavoring with more youthful energy, but unfortunately we traded him away for a bit more of the skill type.

I'm not against drafting for skill at all or even very small players. But I think there needs to be a good balance and awareness of what the rest of the depth chart looks like so your paths to promotion are fairly open and your farm isn't incompatible with big team needs. If you don't look for Goodrow and Coleman at the developmental stage you won't find them accidentally. There's a reason why those kind of players always seem to come out of the Bruins, Devils, Sharks, Blues, systems.

 

[Menzinger]

Well, the thing is the Leafs did take Abramov/Abruzesse/Niemela type players. Their names are Bracco, Timashov, Dzierkals, Brooks. It's just if those player types don't break out as at least middle six options, they're not likely to give you very much else. Ironically enough, a prospect like Mason Marchment can come in on a lower line in a pinch and give you some Wayne Simmonds flavoring with more youthful energy, but unfortunately we traded him away for a bit more of the skill type.

I'm not against drafting for skill at all or even very small players. But I think there needs to be a good balance and awareness of what the rest of the depth chart looks like so your paths to promotion are fairly open and your farm isn't incompatible with big team needs. If you don't look for Goodrow and Coleman at the developmental stage you won't find them accidentally. There's a reason why those kind of players always seem to come out of the Bruins, Devils, Sharks, Blues, systems.

I don't disagree with your overall point of draft diversity being a positive trait.

Though let's face it if one of those guys had turned into an impact top 9 forward (I mean maybe Brooks still can?) Taking similar style guys becomes less of an issue if it can lead to tangible results. It hasnt so far done that though.

The fundamental problem with the Leafs drafting for most of the past decade + is that it's just been flat out bad. Fingers crossed the last couple draft cycles.manage to change that. Lots of quest in marks with the picks but lots to like imo too

 

[Leaf Fans]

Marlies sign Ryan Chyzowski to a 2 year deal and sign Antti Suomela to a 1 year deal.

Surprised we were able to get Suomela back. Figured he would go back to Europe. That is a nice get for a Kossila replacement (he signed with Jokerit of the KHL today) for anywhere from the 2nd to the 4th line.

Chyzowski does not have the highest upside, but he is one of the better options on the AHL contract market right now. We needed some projects for the Growlers next year and that is where he likely starts. Two-way support player type to put in a bottom 6.

Toronto Marlies sign forwards Ryan Chyzowski and Antti Suomela – Toronto Marlies

Nice that Antti Suomela went from an SPC to a Marlies deal too.

 

[Menzinger]

 

[aingefan]

@SeaOfBlue
Who all is on AHL deals so far for 21-22?
Thanks in advance.

 

[baton elevated]

I think with drafting, what you have seen the last few years with Dubas is what you continue to get. The scouting department has been mandated with a certain criteria and they aren't bright enough to think outside the box. Smallish, high IQ, some speed. Well guess what that formula hasn't worked. They get pushed off pucks or crushed along the boards too easily.
This team hasn't developed the most crucial aspect of the game in decades (goalies and Dmen). They continue to draft forwards mostly wingers. The position that is the easiest to find anywhere in the draft or free agency. Just a redundancy of players. Terrible philosophy.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

@SeaOfBlue
Who all is on AHL deals so far for 21-22?
Thanks in advance.

Gogolev, Hoefenmayer, McCourt, Kapcheck, Chyzowski, Green, McMann, Suomela, and McKenna. Some only have 1 year remaining, others have 2.

 

[stickty111]

I think with drafting, what you have seen the last few years with Dubas is what you continue to get. The scouting department has been mandated with a certain criteria and they aren't bright enough to think outside the box. Smallish, high IQ, some speed. Well guess what that formula hasn't worked. They get pushed off pucks or crushed along the boards too easily.
This team hasn't developed the most crucial aspect of the game in decades (goalies and Dmen). They continue to draft forwards mostly wingers. The position that is the easiest to find anywhere in the draft or free agency. Just a redundancy of players. Terrible philosophy.

Yeah because Hunter and Lou's fridges worked out well for us. Seems like you just don't have any patience. Thats a fan problem, not a Dubas problem.
Scouting people are really high on the Leafs picks, but yeah terrible approach. Guess what these picks take time to develop and the formula is working. People just don't follow progression of prospects. A lot of prospects are tracking well but ignorance is strong in Leafs nation.
You do know it's too early to criticize the picks right? Seems like evaluating on size.
Maybe some like the Burke style of drafting better?