Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread - Who ordered a taxi?

[fahad203]

Trading away picks, while not amazing, had a lot less to do with it than the fact that Hunter netted us practically nothing out of the 2015-2017 drafts outside of Marner, Dermott, Liljegren, and Matthews (and I guess Grundstrom since he was moved for Muzzin). That was despite having 27 picks in that 3 year span (14 of which were within the top 95 picks of the drafts). Most of the other picks have flat out busted by now, with Woll, Scott, and Brooks being the only ones with any sort of reasonable promise remaining (+ Korshkov and Timashov if you count guys who are now out of organization).

4/27 is inexcusable, especially when 2 of those 4 were top 5 no-brainer picks and the lowest of the entire bunch was a 34th overall pick in a stacked draft. Even 7/27, which is what we get if all of Scott, Woll, and Brooks to turn out, is subpar. The only saving grace has been adding a bunch of free wallets like Holl, Zaitsev, Mikheyev, Moore, etc. over the years to make up for it.

Compare that to the past few years where Robertson, Sandin, SDA, Durzi, Hollowell, Kral, Abramov, and Holmberg have already made it further than most of the prospects we've drafted in 2015-2017, and we've got a number of others who look extremely promising (Kokkonen, Abruzzese, Koster, Niemela, Hirvonen, Miettinen, Villeneuve, etc.). We don't know if they make the NHL yet, but at least they are making it to the AHL. Out of the 27 picks we've had, only half (14) were even good enough to earn an ELC. 8/15 in 2018 and 2019 already have an ELC, and that excludes Abruzzese, Kokkonen, and Koster. Outside of Stotts in the 3rd round, it is looking like the guys who are not progressing amazingly well are the 7th round picks (Loponen, Kizimov, and Bouthillier). It's too early for most of the 2020 guys at this point, especially since many of them are NCAA bound.

To conclude: Number of picks is important, but it doesn't matter if you are busting on the majority of them anyways. Having only 3 picks in 2021 is not great, but I guess Dubas and Co. are not comfortable with the crop and that makes it the best time to have 3 picks (if there is a best time).

This was a solid breakdown of suck mediocre job that hunter and staff did around here.

I give Dubas a lot of crop for drafting smaller players but those players still have a chance of making it or becoming a decent player for AHL. Where Hunter draft picks were horrible

But I always thought that Greenway or Dakota would turn out to be something

 

[SeaOfBlue]

This was a solid breakdown of suck mediocre job that hunter and staff did around here.

I give Dubas a lot of crop for drafting smaller players but those players still have a chance of making it or becoming a decent player for AHL. Where Hunter draft picks were horrible

But I always thought that Greenway or Dakota would turn out to be something

Greenway has the raw skill but lacked the IQ. Same deal with Rasanen. That is why Dubas drafts for it now.

Just so happens that very few large players in the past few drafts had the IQ and skill to be worth it, and those who did went really high.

Also some guys do grow too. Abramov for example is now over 6'0". He likely will not be super physical but he could have that same kind of impact that you see out of Kerfoot, and you need those guys to pair with your Hyman types.

He also drafted/signed some good forecheckers like Steeves.

 

[Stephen]

Trading away picks, while not amazing, had a lot less to do with it than the fact that Hunter netted us practically nothing out of the 2015-2017 drafts outside of Marner, Dermott, Liljegren, and Matthews (and I guess Grundstrom since he was moved for Muzzin). That was despite having 27 picks in that 3 year span (14 of which were within the top 95 picks of the drafts). Most of the other picks have flat out busted by now, with Woll, Scott, and Brooks being the only ones with any sort of reasonable promise remaining (+ Korshkov and Timashov if you count guys who are now out of organization).

4/27 is inexcusable, especially when 2 of those 4 were top 5 no-brainer picks and the lowest of the entire bunch was a 34th overall pick in a stacked draft. Even 7/27, which is what we get if all of Scott, Woll, and Brooks to turn out, is subpar. The only saving grace has been adding a bunch of free wallets like Holl, Zaitsev, Mikheyev, Moore, etc. over the years to make up for it.

Compare that to the past few years where Robertson, Sandin, SDA, Durzi, Hollowell, Kral, Abramov, and Holmberg have already made it further than most of the prospects we've drafted in 2015-2017, and we've got a number of others who look extremely promising (Kokkonen, Abruzzese, Koster, Niemela, Hirvonen, Miettinen, Villeneuve, etc.). We don't know if they make the NHL yet, but at least they are making it to the AHL. Out of the 27 picks we've had, only half (14) were even good enough to earn an ELC. 8/15 in 2018 and 2019 already have an ELC, and that excludes Abruzzese, Kokkonen, and Koster. Outside of Stotts in the 3rd round, it is looking like the guys who are not progressing amazingly well are the 7th round picks (Loponen, Kizimov, and Bouthillier). It's too early for most of the 2020 guys at this point, especially since many of them are NCAA bound.

To conclude: Number of picks is important, but it doesn't matter if you are busting on the majority of them anyways. Having only 3 picks in 2021 is not great, but I guess Dubas and Co. are not comfortable with the crop and that makes it the best time to have 3 picks (if there is a best time).

I'm going to have to vehemently disagree with the conclusion that the current Sandin, Robertson, SDA crop has surpassed the Hunter group because it's simply too early to make that judgement call. One of the big factors at play here is obviously the pandemic interrupted seasons in 2019-20 and 2020-21, but aside from volumes of media and organizational hype surrounding these guys, none have even successfully completed one solid AHL campaign.

For example, Nick Robertson media blitz has been happening in earnest since his big OHL year in 2019-20, but he kid has logged 21 AHL games total time and just kind of hung around the big team, which means he has a ways to go before he even catches up to where Jeremy Bracco and Dmytro Timashov left off with the Marlies. I hope he puts it all together next year and makes a push for a Leaf role soon but this guy is a pure hype souffle.

As far as the crop of Der-Arguchintsev, Hollowell, Kokkonen, Abruzzese, Koster, Niemela, Hirvonen, Miettinen goes, I'm having an very hard time imaging what the progression path and logical next steps of promotion will be for most of these guys because the universal package of intelligence and puck skills and lack of size means they're not the kind of players who will compliment our core. Maybe there's a Matt Grzelcyk, Jared Spurgeon, Andreas Johnsson or a J-G Pageau in that group but I'm not sold that we're not just developing the next crop of Moore, Soshnikov, Timashov, Dzierkals, Bracco, Malgin, Petan in that mix.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I'm going to have to vehemently disagree with the conclusion that the current Sandin, Robertson, SDA crop has surpassed the Hunter group because it's simply too early to make that judgement call. One of the big factors at play here is obviously the pandemic interrupted seasons in 2019-20 and 2020-21, but aside from volumes of media and organizational hype surrounding these guys, none have even successfully completed one solid AHL campaign.

For example, Nick Robertson media blitz has been happening in earnest since his big OHL year in 2019-20, but he kid has logged 21 AHL games total time and just kind of hung around the big team, which means he has a ways to go before he even catches up to where Jeremy Bracco and Dmytro Timashov left off with the Marlies. I hope he puts it all together next year and makes a push for a Leaf role soon but this guy is a pure hype souffle.

As far as the crop of Der-Arguchintsev, Hollowell, Kokkonen, Abruzzese, Koster, Niemela, Hirvonen, Miettinen goes, I'm having an very hard time imaging what the progression path and logical next steps of promotion will be for most of these guys because the universal package of intelligence and puck skills and lack of size means they're not the kind of players who will compliment our core. Maybe there's a Matt Grzelcyk, Jared Spurgeon, Andreas Johnsson or a J-G Pageau in that group but I'm not sold that we're not just developing the next crop of Moore, Soshnikov, Timashov, Dzierkals, Bracco, Malgin, Petan in that mix.

If the threshold is for the current crop to be better than the Hunter crop, it is not a high bar to surpass. Hunter has produced practically nothing, and most guys were not even good enough to earn ELC's or garner any kind of hype.

Players with intelligence and skill win Cups. Especially when it is well-rounded. Drafting guys for size will leave you with a lot of subpar players who are not good enough to play in the NHL. If you are drafting a guy with size, you better be damn sure they can play well... And if you want to look at a lot of the past few drafts, the guys with size are either really high picks because they are also really skilled or lack upside.

 

[Stephen]

If the threshold is for the current crop to be better than the Hunter crop, it is not a high bar to surpass. Hunter has produced practically nothing, and most guys were not even good enough to earn ELC's or garner any kind of hype.

Players with intelligence and skill win Cups. Especially when it is well-rounded. Drafting guys for size will leave you with a lot of subpar players who are not good enough to play in the NHL. If you are drafting a guy with size, you better be damn sure they can play well... And if you want to look at a lot of the past few drafts, the guys with size are either really high picks because they are also really skilled or lack upside.

I’m not really taking sides on this size vs skill dichotomy that’s been thrown around as a new age philosophical draft concept.

But at the end of the day, unless you’re actually unearthing small guys who are exceptionally good players of the caliber of a Brayden Point at forward or an Adam Fox on defense, a lot of the Dubas picks will likely not push the needle forward any more so than Bracco, Timashov, Dzierkals, Soshnikov, Malgin, Barabanov.

Big guys who can’t play won’t help you. But small skill guys who don’t have a place on the roster who can help in a depth role also won’t help you.

 

[Menzinger]

I’m not really taking sides on this size vs skill dichotomy that’s been thrown around as a new age philosophical draft concept.

But at the end of the day, unless you’re actually unearthing small guys who are exceptionally good players of the caliber of a Brayden Point at forward or an Adam Fox on defense, a lot of the Dubas picks will likely not push the needle forward any more so than Bracco, Timashov, Dzierkals, Soshnikov, Malgin, Barabanov.

Big guys who can’t play won’t help you. But small skill guys who don’t have a place on the roster who can help in a depth role also won’t help you.

Where I fall is that Leafs drafting has been so terrible for so long that at this point I'll take guys who can be stable NHLers and then worry about fit/style later.

With that said, doesn't mean Dubas' picks don't have a ton of question marks surrounding them still.

 

[nobody]

I’m not really taking sides on this size vs skill dichotomy that’s been thrown around as a new age philosophical draft concept.

But at the end of the day, unless you’re actually unearthing small guys who are exceptionally good players of the caliber of a Brayden Point at forward or an Adam Fox on defense, a lot of the Dubas picks will likely not push the needle forward any more so than Bracco, Timashov, Dzierkals, Soshnikov, Malgin, Barabanov.

Big guys who can’t play won’t help you. But small skill guys who don’t have a place on the roster who can help in a depth role also won’t help you.

You do realize that for every Brayden Point and Adam Fox, there are a bunch of other smallish NHLers who are not superstars but still effective contributors. You don't always need to hit home runs. The point of us drafting skilled guys is to ensure that we have a steady pipeline of players on ELC who will continue to make their way to the big show and contribute.

Bracco had a very bright future in the game and was looking like a top tier prospect until he got absolutely derailed by personal problems and accusations of abuse/ drug use that got him booted from the organization after an extended leave of absence.

Timashov is and was a very good bottom 6 player and he had injury issues last year but is going to be a part of the bottom 6 on a young Wings team that's run by Yzerman.

Soshnikov was a free wallet out of Russia who was actually a very effective player for us when he first broke in but unfortunately, a couple of big concussions derailed a promising career. He's still a stud in the KHL right now.

Malgin is a NHL/AHL tweener and European star who just needs consistent opportunities. He not so long ago was a pretty darn good player for the Panthers who were a middling franchise.

Barabanov much like Malgin was a casualty of opportunity and never really got a sniff at consistent playing time. He was also absolutely snakebit and that further hurt him. Once he got traded to the Sharks, he was placed on the top line by the end of the first game and that's where he played out the rest of the season and if I'm not wrong, he put up PPG or near that in a small sample size. The few games I watched of his, he was very effective playing on a line with Kane and Couture I believe.

Dzierkals was stuck behind a bunch of guys on the depth chart and didn't remain patient and instead chased other opportunities. Had he stuck it out with the franchise, I think he would be a very interesting piece we'd be discussing right now. He played a very good 200 ft game and though he was a little on the slower side, his hustle was valuable.

 

[Stephen]

You do realize that for every Brayden Point and Adam Fox, there are a bunch of other smallish NHLers who are not superstars but still effective contributors. You don't always need to hit home runs. The point of us drafting skilled guys is to ensure that we have a steady pipeline of players on ELC who will continue to make their way to the big show and contribute.

Bracco had a very bright future in the game and was looking like a top tier prospect until he got absolutely derailed by personal problems and accusations of abuse/ drug use that got him booted from the organization after an extended leave of absence.

Timashov is and was a very good bottom 6 player and he had injury issues last year but is going to be a part of the bottom 6 on a young Wings team that's run by Yzerman.

Soshnikov was a free wallet out of Russia who was actually a very effective player for us when he first broke in but unfortunately, a couple of big concussions derailed a promising career. He's still a stud in the KHL right now.

Malgin is a NHL/AHL tweener and European star who just needs consistent opportunities. He not so long ago was a pretty darn good player for the Panthers who were a middling franchise.

Barabanov much like Malgin was a casualty of opportunity and never really got a sniff at consistent playing time. He was also absolutely snakebit and that further hurt him. Once he got traded to the Sharks, he was placed on the top line by the end of the first game and that's where he played out the rest of the season and if I'm not wrong, he put up PPG or near that in a small sample size. The few games I watched of his, he was very effective playing on a line with Kane and Couture I believe.

Dzierkals was stuck behind a bunch of guys on the depth chart and didn't remain patient and instead chased other opportunities. Had he stuck it out with the franchise, I think he would be a very interesting piece we'd be discussing right now. He played a very good 200 ft game and though he was a little on the slower side, his hustle was valuable.

Look, we can tow the company line about drafting BPA all day long and how skill and smarts rule the day and how the current crop is showing a lot of promise, but when you look at the current roster I can tell you there is a massive disconnect between the collection of what’s being incubated and what roles are open.

Fact is, the Leafs have been adding bigger bodies, grittier skill sets and supporting cast type bottom six and bottom pairing defensemen over the past year to support our skilled core in the pro roster.

This dynamic is unlikely to change over the next 3-4 years while the core is intact, and if all goes well, will likely to continue beyond that. Because we are a skilled team with skilled high end players up front.

If you look at the prospect pyramid, our 2 best prospects continue to be Sandin and Robertson, who are two smaller players who don’t support the core in ideal fashion. Sandin is going to get by on smarts, and Robertson is rounding out his game but will probably squeeze into a middle six role as a pint sized sniper. Beyond that, Amirov could compete for a similar role and he’s a pretty good standard size athlete. Abramov and Hallander also have some promise and are average size.

Beyond that, good luck promoting a 6 pack of 5’9” defensemen into the top six or undersized centermen into the Kerfoot spot. The reality on the ground is if those guys aren’t Brayden Point good or Adam Fox good there’s no natural fit to put them into supporting roles to support a core as we cycle through the depth.

 

[Stephen]

Where I fall is that Leafs drafting has been so terrible for so long that at this point I'll take guys who can be stable NHLers and then worry about fit/style later.

With that said, doesn't mean Dubas' picks don't have a ton of question marks surrounding them still.

I just think that unless you’re finding true impact players with those body types it’s unrealistic to project a blueline made up of something that looks like:

Sandin-Niemela
Koster-Hollowell
Kokkonen-Loponen

 

[Menzinger]

I just think that unless you’re finding true impact players with those body types it’s unrealistic to project a blueline made up of something that looks like:

Sandin-Niemela
Koster-Hollowell
Kokkonen-Loponen

Projection can be hard though. Think about how different the Leafs D core was say 3 seasons ago.

If even just 1-2 of those guys hit as #5/4 D men that puts the Leafs prospect development miles ahead of where it was in the recent past too. The current average success for those range of picks since the rebuild (or even before) is essentially zero, so I'll take any sort of "win" at this point.

 

[Stephen]

Projection can be hard though. Think about how different the Leafs D core was say 3 seasons ago.

If even just 1-2 of those guys hit as #5/4 D men that puts the Leafs prospect development miles ahead of where it was in the recent past too. The current average success for those range of picks since the rebuild (or even before) is essentially zero, so I'll take any sort of "win" at this point.

Yeah, alternatively we can package off some of these guys for something different but I think key here is they can get back to drafting on a regular basis. The lack of picks in 2021 and 2022 is the kind of hangover you can live with post championship but harder to take when you’re still trying to climb.

 

[GQS]

If you look at the prospect pyramid, our 2 best prospects continue to be Sandin and Robertson, who are two smaller players who don’t support the core in ideal fashion. Sandin is going to get by on smarts, and Robertson is rounding out his game but will probably squeeze into a middle six role as a pint sized sniper. Beyond that, Amirov could compete for a similar role and he’s a pretty good standard size athlete. Abramov and Hallander also have some promise and are average size.

Liljegren always the forgetten man in all the prospect talk. Most people talk about Sandin and Robertson when it comes to our prospects, but Liljegren always seems to get little love and alot of time people only mention his name when it comes to wanting to trade him.

I really hope he can get a shot at becoming a regular and play some consistent minutes with the Leafs next season and see what he can do. Seems like Sandin is the favored child in Dubas' eyes and he's gotten more chances to prove himself than Liljegren has to date.

 

[4thline]

If you look at the prospect pyramid, our 2 best prospects continue to be Sandin and Robertson, who are two smaller players who don’t support the core in ideal fashion. Sandin is going to get by on smarts, and Robertson is rounding out his game but will probably squeeze into a middle six role as a pint sized sniper. Beyond that, Amirov could compete for a similar role and he’s a pretty good standard size athlete. Abramov and Hallander also have some promise and are average size.

Looking at prospects that matter

Robertson- energizer bunny vying for a spot on a wide open left side
Amirov- slight, but average size when developed, solid two way support game
Hallander - average size+, two-way support game
Abramov- skill game, smaller side of average
Holmberg- average size - , two-way support game
Hirvonen- short, but built like a fire hydrant, two-way support game
Abbruzezze- undersized finesse game
Miettinen- undersized finesse game
SDA- undersized finesse game

Sandin- if he gets his stride where it needs to be he will never be considered small.
Liljegren- built like a truck, average size+, two way support game
Kokkonen- average, two way support game
Niemela - undersized finesse game
Koster- short but stockey, two-way support game
Kral - tall but slight, two way support game

It's a gross mischaracterization that our pool is boom bust. A lot of these guys project perfectly into middle of the line up support roles.

 

[Stephen]

Looking at prospects that matter

Robertson- energizer bunny vying for a spot on a wide open left side
Amirov- slight, but average size when developed, solid two way support game
Hallander - average size+, two-way support game
Abramov- skill game, smaller side of average
Holmberg- average size - , two-way support game
Hirvonen- short, but built like a fire hydrant, two-way support game
Abbruzezze- undersized finesse game
Miettinen- undersized finesse game
SDA- undersized finesse game

Sandin- if he gets his stride where it needs to be he will never be considered small.
Liljegren- built like a truck, average size+, two way support game
Kokkonen- average, two way support game
Niemela - undersized finesse game
Koster- short but stockey, two-way support game
Kral - tall but slight, two way support game

It's a gross mischaracterization that our pool is boom bust. A lot of these guys project perfectly into middle of the line up support roles.

You’ve listed a number of players whose physical description is small, slight, undersized, averaged size, a bunny and “never considered small” even though he is “small.”

I don’t have any actually problem with small players, but the entire organizational mix seems to be off. Will we successfully promote Sandin, Niemela, Hollowell on a functional competitive NHL blueline given what kind of playoff hockey we watch year after year?

 

[4thline]

You’ve listed a number of players whose physical description is small, slight, undersized, averaged size, a bunny and “never considered small” even though he is “small.”

I don’t have any actually problem with small players, but the entire organizational mix seems to be off. Will we successfully promote Sandin, Niemela, Hollowell on a functional competitive NHL blueline given what kind of playoff hockey we watch year after year?

I listed a bunch of players, only 4 of which will play at maturity with style/size combos that aren't conducive to "non-skill" roles and playoff hockey. 3 of those 4 have sky high upside.

You've been in the game waaay too long to throw out nonsense like "if they all turn out it's not the right mix" because we all know that they won't all turn out.

 

[Stephen]

I listed a bunch of players, only 4 of which will play at maturity with style/size combos that aren't conducive to "non-skill" roles and playoff hockey. 3 of those 4 have sky high upside.

You've been in the game waaay too long to throw out nonsense like "if they all turn out it's not the right mix" because we all know that they won't all turn out.

I think the issue is lack of diversity.

For example, if we had a Shane Pinto or a Braden Schneider you could at least project parallel paths of promotion for a skilled guy who could back fill a top six role and a kid who can slot in a physical, checking role that helps us get cheaper and a little closer to what your final four playoff teams are doing. Right now we’re going to be looking for past prime UFA big men and their mileage seems to really vary.

 

[LaPlante94]

Looking at prospects that matter

Robertson- energizer bunny vying for a spot on a wide open left side
Amirov- slight, but average size when developed, solid two way support game
Hallander - average size+, two-way support game
Abramov- skill game, smaller side of average
Holmberg- average size - , two-way support game
Hirvonen- short, but built like a fire hydrant, two-way support game
Abbruzezze- undersized finesse game
Miettinen- undersized finesse game
SDA- undersized finesse game

Sandin- if he gets his stride where it needs to be he will never be considered small.
Liljegren- built like a truck, average size+, two way support game
Kokkonen- average, two way support game
Niemela - undersized finesse game
Koster- short but stockey, two-way support game
Kral - tall but slight, two way support game

It's a gross mischaracterization that our pool is boom bust. A lot of these guys project perfectly into middle of the line up support roles.

I think we need to start taking a swing with 1 or 2 picks a draft depending on how many picks we got and draft a Power Forward who brings a power game. Make sure they got some hockey IQ obviously and aren't dumb players who look completely lost out there. With the core we got this shouldn't really be a problem, especially since we got some pretty good prospects in the pipeline now who are more on the smaller finesse side.

 

[4thline]

I think the issue is lack of diversity.

For example, if we had a Shane Pinto or a Braden Schneider you could at least project parallel paths of promotion for a skilled guy who could back fill a top six role and a kid who can slot in a physical, checking role that helps us get cheaper and a little closer to what your final four playoff teams are doing. Right now we’re going to be looking for past prime UFA big men and their mileage seems to really vary.

I'm not against drafting those types, but we already have diversity amongst the group. There's only really 2 of our meaningful prospects that fit the "top 6 or bust" typecast, and that's Abbruzzeze/Miettinen. Abramov/Hallander/Holmberg/Amirov/Robertson all bring either the tenacity or defensive ability that we can fit as many make it.

 

[The Iceman]

You do realize that for every Brayden Point and Adam Fox, there are a bunch of other smallish NHLers who are not superstars but still effective contributors. You don't always need to hit home runs. The point of us drafting skilled guys is to ensure that we have a steady pipeline of players on ELC who will continue to make their way to the big show and contribute.

Bracco had a very bright future in the game and was looking like a top tier prospect until he got absolutely derailed by personal problems and accusations of abuse/ drug use that got him booted from the organization after an extended leave of absence.

Timashov is and was a very good bottom 6 player and he had injury issues last year but is going to be a part of the bottom 6 on a young Wings team that's run by Yzerman.

Soshnikov was a free wallet out of Russia who was actually a very effective player for us when he first broke in but unfortunately, a couple of big concussions derailed a promising career. He's still a stud in the KHL right now.

Malgin is a NHL/AHL tweener and European star who just needs consistent opportunities. He not so long ago was a pretty darn good player for the Panthers who were a middling franchise.

Barabanov much like Malgin was a casualty of opportunity and never really got a sniff at consistent playing time. He was also absolutely snakebit and that further hurt him. Once he got traded to the Sharks, he was placed on the top line by the end of the first game and that's where he played out the rest of the season and if I'm not wrong, he put up PPG or near that in a small sample size. The few games I watched of his, he was very effective playing on a line with Kane and Couture I believe.

Dzierkals was stuck behind a bunch of guys on the depth chart and didn't remain patient and instead chased other opportunities. Had he stuck it out with the franchise, I think he would be a very interesting piece we'd be discussing right now. He played a very good 200 ft game and though he was a little on the slower side, his hustle was valuable.

The very good Timashov was traded in December for future considerations to NYI and spent the season with Bridgeport.
He appeared in one game for NYI and was -2 in 7 minutes.

 

[Stephen]

The very good Timashov was traded in December for future considerations to NYI and spent the season with Bridgeport.
He appeared in one game for NYI and was -2 in 7 minutes.

The reality is for every Marchessault, Point or Pageau that comes along and negates the size factor, you’re going to go through a number of guys like Petan, Malgin, Ennis, Soshnikov, Timashov, Bracco, Dzierkals, who can’t really play up in the lineup for you and can’t grab onto a role in the bottom 6.

By all means look for that special player but the way the Leafs fall back in the draft and look for extra picks they clearly look at groupings of guys and play the percentage game.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Looking at prospects that matter

Robertson- energizer bunny vying for a spot on a wide open left side
Amirov- slight, but average size when developed, solid two way support game
Hallander - average size+, two-way support game
Abramov- skill game, smaller side of average
Holmberg- average size - , two-way support game
Hirvonen- short, but built like a fire hydrant, two-way support game
Abbruzezze- undersized finesse game
Miettinen- undersized finesse game
SDA- undersized finesse game

Sandin- if he gets his stride where it needs to be he will never be considered small.
Liljegren- built like a truck, average size+, two way support game
Kokkonen- average, two way support game
Niemela - undersized finesse game
Koster- short but stockey, two-way support game
Kral - tall but slight, two way support game

It's a gross mischaracterization that our pool is boom bust. A lot of these guys project perfectly into middle of the line up support roles.

Even Niemela is not a pure finesse player. He is very close stylistically to Liljegren.

I can see why people wanted a Guhle or a Schneider, but I can also see why Dubas would avoid them... And it has nothing to do with an allergy to size or whatever narrative people like to throw around on the internet.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

By all means look for that special player but the way the Leafs fall back in the draft and look for extra picks they clearly look at groupings of guys and play the percentage game.

They put more effort in than just looking at percentages. If they feel like they are getting a top 25 player at or near their pick in the 50's, they are not moving down. They may even move up if the price is right. However if they are getting a bunch of top 50 prospects that don't stand out against one another, which happens a lot, and a team is willing to give a nice offer, then it makes sense to move down. It's not even as complicated as percentages... It's 2 for the price of 1.

Niemela + Hirvonen instead of just one of them for example. Wouldn't be surprised if they looked at the board (Cormier, Finlay, Niemela, Hirvonen, Mysak, etc.) and thought that if they took that Ottawa offer, they are likely getting two prospects that are about as good as the one they could get at 44. It was one of the better areas of the 2020 draft after all. Turns out, that is exactly what happened.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Marlies sign Ryan Chyzowski to a 2 year deal and sign Antti Suomela to a 1 year deal.

Surprised we were able to get Suomela back. Figured he would go back to Europe. That is a nice get for a Kossila replacement (he signed with Jokerit of the KHL today) for anywhere from the 2nd to the 4th line.

Chyzowski does not have the highest upside, but he is one of the better options on the AHL contract market right now. We needed some projects for the Growlers next year and that is where he likely starts. Two-way support player type to put in a bottom 6.

Toronto Marlies sign forwards Ryan Chyzowski and Antti Suomela – Toronto Marlies

 

[baton elevated]

I'm not fond of the smaller player per say and certainly not an over abundance of them. I'm more interested in the fight in the dog rather than the size if the dog. Tucker , Gilmour and Domi were not the biggest guys in the world (far from it) but they would not be pushed around. Dubas drafts finesse only and not the tenacious pit bull types. A player like Andrew Mangipanni is a player that is useful and growing in diversity. We have Robertson, who will be the better player? Stats would suggest Rob's but from what I've seen I'm not so sure.

 

[FrankGallagher]

If the threshold is for the current crop to be better than the Hunter crop, it is not a high bar to surpass. Hunter has produced practically nothing, and most guys were not even good enough to earn ELC's or garner any kind of hype.

Players with intelligence and skill win Cups. Especially when it is well-rounded. Drafting guys for size will leave you with a lot of subpar players who are not good enough to play in the NHL. If you are drafting a guy with size, you better be damn sure they can play well... And if you want to look at a lot of the past few drafts, the guys with size are either really high picks because they are also really skilled or lack upside.

Many of the recent late round steals around the league are not just undersized guys though. You need to draft a variety of different player styles, not just undersized offensive guys. Valuable players come in a lot of different packages. I think the biggest problem with the Dubas drafts is that most of the picks are redundant and have a narrow avenue to making contributions in the NHL. I also think the scouting team focuses too much on junior production and not enough on athletic tools and long term projection