Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread - Who ordered a taxi?

[baton elevated]

Yeah because Hunter and Lou's fridges worked out well for us. Seems like you just don't have any patience. Thats a fan problem, not a Dubas problem.
Scouting people are really high on the Leafs picks, but yeah terrible approach. Guess what these picks take time to develop and the formula is working. People just don't follow progression of prospects.
You do know it's too early to criticize the picks right? Seems like evaluating on size.
Maybe some like the Burke style of drafting better?

These are your words of my perception. Don't put words in my mouth. If I want to convey an opinion I will. This is a message board and all opinions are welcome whether we agree with them or not.

 

[I am Canadian]

Do we not have a draft thread going? Depressing not having a 1st but would be cool to see anyway

 

[Prominence]

Do we not have a draft thread going? Depressing not having a 1st but would be cool to see anyway

It used to be here.
The Never Too Early 2021 NHL Entry Draft Discussion

 

[LaPlante94]

Do we not have a draft thread going? Depressing not having a 1st but would be cool to see anyway

Yeah but doesn't get used as much atm. I made a comment in there like a week ago to bump the thread up because it dropped down a page or 2

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Many of the recent late round steals around the league are not just undersized guys though. You need to draft a variety of different player styles, not just undersized offensive guys. Valuable players come in a lot of different packages. I think the biggest problem with the Dubas drafts is that most of the picks are redundant and have a narrow avenue to making contributions in the NHL. I also think the scouting team focuses too much on junior production and not enough on athletic tools and long term projection

Vast majority of picks on even the best drafting teams won't get anywhere close to the NHL so the redundancy factor most likely doesn't even come into play with the NHL team after trades, UFA's, Russian signings, junior/NCAA signings, etc., etc.

Dubas is swinging for the fences with a lot of his picks which is an approach I fully support. Majority of forwards who were drafted late 2nd round (50+) and later in recent drafts who've turned into top 6 or even top 9 player have been undersized or average sized at best. Dubas is trying for the next Point, Kucherov, Guentzel but even if he only comes up with an Arvidsson, Rust level player or two that's huge. There's also a RFA/UFA status to consider with big forwards - big guys simply take longer to develop and by the time they figure it out they're usually close to looking for big dollars (witness Hyman/Josh Anderson).

This doesn't mean I love every Dubas pick but when number of picks and draft position is taken into account at this point he some deserves credit and benefit of the doubt. The fact that 3 non top 50 picks are on a list like Craig Button's top 75 prospect with Robertson (18), Abruzzese (67), Niemela (73) is an extremely good sign. Craig's list isn't the end all be all but it's a good reference. Sandin was 14th on his list and was taken at the end of the first round. Amirov is 57 on the list and it's hard to judge him based on not getting a great opportunity in the KHL as a youngster who's set to leave for the NHL and the Russian World Junior team was simply a mess - I'm reserving judgement on this pick as it's too early to tell but definitely understand how people didn't like the pick.

SDA is one prospect I don't get why there is any hype behind him. He doesn't have size, isn't a checker and even non-elite play makers at the NHL level were able to score a lot of goals at lower levels. He won't amount to an NHL player for the same reason I never saw a guy like Bracco ever being an NHLer.

Abramov (decent size), Ovchinnikov, Miettenen are all intriguing prospects who can skate and all have produced well since their draft - each of them can score unlike SDA. I also really like the Gogolev (decent size) signing.

As for Dmen, on the surface I'm not crazy about Dubas taking a lot of undersized Dmen but at the same time Sandin & Niemela both look like awesome picks where they were taken. Even Kokkonen and Durzi (traded) look like decent prospects.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Vast majority of picks on even the best drafting teams won't get anywhere close to the NHL so the redundancy factor most likely doesn't even come into play with the NHL team after trades, UFA's, Russian signings, junior/NCAA signings, etc., etc.

Dubas is swinging for the fences with a lot of his picks which is an approach I fully support. Majority of forwards who were drafted late 2nd round (50+) and later in recent drafts who've turned into top 6 or even top 9 player have been undersized or average sized at best. Dubas is trying for the next Point, Kucherov, Guentzel but even if he only comes up with an Arvidsson, Rust level player or two that's huge. There's also a RFA/UFA status to consider with big forwards - big guys simply take longer to develop and by the time they figure it out they're usually close to looking for big dollars (witness Hyman/Josh Anderson).

This doesn't mean I love every Dubas pick but when number of picks and draft position is taken into account at this point he some credit and benefit of the doubt. The fact that 3 non top 50 picks are on a list like Craig Button's top 75 prospect with Robertson (18), Abruzzese (67), Niemela (73) is an extremely good sign. Craig's list isn't the end all be all but it's a good reference. Sandin was 14th on his list and was taken at the end of the first round. Amirov is 57 on the list and it's hard to judge him based on not getting a great opportunity in the KHL as youngster who's set to leave for the NHL and the Russian World Junior team was simply a mess - I'm reserving judgement on this pick as it's too early to tell but definitely understand how people didn't like the pick.

SDA is one prospect I don't get why there is any hype behind him. He doesn't have size, isn't a checker and even non-elite play makers at the NHL level were able to score a lot of goals at lower levels. He won't amount to an NHL player for the same reason I never saw a guy like Bracco ever being an NHLer.

Abramov (decent size), Ovchinnikov, Miettenen are all intriguing prospects who can skate and all have produced well since their draft - each of them can score unlike SDA. I also really like the Gogolev (decent size) signing.

As for Dmen, on the surface I'm not crazy about Dubas taking a lot of undersized Dmen but at the same time Sandin & Niemela both look like awesome picks where they were taken. Even Kokkonen and Durzi (traded) look like decent prospects.

SDA is a guy that I don't think amounts to much either. I think the Leafs keep him around for at least one year but he's one of the first guys I'd include if we needed to trade a B prospect.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Vast majority of picks on even the best drafting teams won't get anywhere close to the NHL so the redundancy factor most likely doesn't even come into play with the NHL team after trades, UFA's, Russian signings, junior/NCAA signings, etc., etc.

Dubas is swinging for the fences with a lot of his picks which is an approach I fully support. Majority of forwards who were drafted late 2nd round (50+) and later in recent drafts who've turned into top 6 or even top 9 player have been undersized or average sized at best. Dubas is trying for the next Point, Kucherov, Guentzel but even if he only comes up with an Arvidsson, Rust level player or two that's huge. There's also a RFA/UFA status to consider with big forwards - big guys simply take longer to develop and by the time they figure it out they're usually close to looking for big dollars (witness Hyman/Josh Anderson).

This doesn't mean I love every Dubas pick but when number of picks and draft position is taken into account at this point he some deserves credit and benefit of the doubt. The fact that 3 non top 50 picks are on a list like Craig Button's top 75 prospect with Robertson (18), Abruzzese (67), Niemela (73) is an extremely good sign. Craig's list isn't the end all be all but it's a good reference. Sandin was 14th on his list and was taken at the end of the first round. Amirov is 57 on the list and it's hard to judge him based on not getting a great opportunity in the KHL as a youngster who's set to leave for the NHL and the Russian World Junior team was simply a mess - I'm reserving judgement on this pick as it's too early to tell but definitely understand how people didn't like the pick.

SDA is one prospect I don't get why there is any hype behind him. He doesn't have size, isn't a checker and even non-elite play makers at the NHL level were able to score a lot of goals at lower levels. He won't amount to an NHL player for the same reason I never saw a guy like Bracco ever being an NHLer.

Abramov (decent size), Ovchinnikov, Miettenen are all intriguing prospects who can skate and all have produced well since their draft - each of them can score unlike SDA. I also really like the Gogolev (decent size) signing.

As for Dmen, on the surface I'm not crazy about Dubas taking a lot of undersized Dmen but at the same time Sandin & Niemela both look like awesome picks where they were taken. Even Kokkonen and Durzi (traded) look like decent prospects.

I really like Koster too despite his size. I remember at the time of the draft he had gotten a ton a praise for being able to shut down the likes of Lafreniere, Byfield, and Newhook at the U18s. He also got a ton of praise from the coaching staff at the U. of Minnesota for stepping in and displaying hockey IQ they haven't really seen. He could be like a Spurgeon for us.

 

[Menzinger]

I really like Koster too despite his size. I remember at the time of the draft he had gotten a ton a praise for being able to shut down the likes of Lafreniere, Byfield, and Newhook at the U18s. He also got a ton of praise from the coaching staff at the U. of Minnesota for stepping in and displaying hockey IQ they haven't really seen. He could be like a Spurgeon for us.

Koster had an absolutely fantastic year. He'd quickly became one of my favorite Leafs prospects.

He's got a bit of work to do still in terms of development, but there's an awful lot to like about his trajectory so far

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Koster had an absolutely fantastic year. He'd quickly became one of my favorite Leafs prospects.

He's got a bit of work to do still in terms of development, but there's an awful lot to like about his trajectory so far

I love our draft philosophy of drafting for skill, IQ and for upside. Just wish we had some power forwards and bigger D men in the system that could be a Weber, Slavin etc. Our prospect pool looks solid but we can't have a team of guys between 5'9 - 6'0.

I get that when you're picking outside the first round thats its rare to find a player that has the total package of size, skill and IQ but teams like Carolina, St.Louis , Nashville etc are able to do it. Would like to see Dubas try and find some of these guys too.

There is a lot to like about some of the recent draft picks like Niemela and Koster though.

 

[Canada4Gold]

 

[hamzarocks]

No team should waste a pick on Rasanen. He's in his D+5 next year and will be reentering the draft. He isn't a AHL player let alone NHL hopeful. He failed to crack any team (gets extremely low end minutes in the KHL and Finnish leagues" he's been on since he's left the OHL

 

[Brobust]

I’m not buying this new era draft and development hype like we have the Club Mensa of players. The Dubas era hasn’t really produced any quality or quantity of prospect we haven’t seen since the JFJ days, which a steady stream of decent but unremarkable players coming out of the draft past the first round:

Reimer
Gunnarsson
Stralman
Komarov
Stahlberg
Leivo
Brown
Johnsson
Verhaeghe
Kulemin

Damn, those are some great picks.

 

[Stephen]

Yeah because Hunter and Lou's fridges worked out well for us. Seems like you just don't have any patience. Thats a fan problem, not a Dubas problem.
Scouting people are really high on the Leafs picks, but yeah terrible approach. Guess what these picks take time to develop and the formula is working. People just don't follow progression of prospects. A lot of prospects are tracking well but ignorance is strong in Leafs nation.
You do know it's too early to criticize the picks right? Seems like evaluating on size.
Maybe some like the Burke style of drafting better?

The constant Lou/Hunter vs Dubas debate is pointless. The idea isn't that drafting a 6'6" Gordeev is any better or worse than a 5'9" Koster because realistically, the majority of these picks won't amount to much at the NHL level. But, ideally what you want is a mix of two where you can reasonably develop a variety of player and body types concurrently for different roles that support the big club one day. For mid round picks, a certain kind of bigger body role player isn't the worst thing, because if you already have Mitch Marner on your first line, there's no way you're ever going find that same scoring role for an SDA.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

The constant Lou/Hunter vs Dubas debate is pointless. The idea isn't that drafting a 6'6" Gordeev is any better or worse than a 5'9" Koster because realistically, the majority of these picks won't amount to much at the NHL level. But, ideally what you want is a mix of two where you can reasonably develop a variety of player and body types concurrently for different roles that support the big club one day. For mid round picks, a certain kind of bigger body role player isn't the worst thing, because if you already have Mitch Marner on your first line, there's no way you're ever going find that same scoring role for an SDA.

it is pretty much objectively better to draft the good hockey player who has to overcome size than the big guy who has to overcome being bad at hockey

 

[Brobust]

I think the issue is lack of diversity.

For example, if we had a Shane Pinto or a Braden Schneider you could at least project parallel paths of promotion for a skilled guy who could back fill a top six role and a kid who can slot in a physical, checking role that helps us get cheaper and a little closer to what your final four playoff teams are doing. Right now we’re going to be looking for past prime UFA big men and their mileage seems to really vary.

Are all the current leafs drafted by the leafs or what?

Why are people even responding to this argument?

 

[Stephen]

it is pretty much objectively better to draft the good hockey player who has to overcome size than the big guy who has to overcome being bad at hockey

That viewpoint is an extreme simplification of drafting and development built on the boogie man of Tyler Biggs and a few other "fridges" the Leafs have picked over the years. But doesn't really bear out in a lot of circumstances.

To use a real world example. You could point to a 5'9" Jeremy Bracco who lit up the USNTDP in the mid 2010s and went on to play in the OHL as a guy whose "better at hockey" - to borrow a cute flippant term - than someone like a 6'2" Barclay Goodrow who was average producer in juniors around the same time. The draft bears this out. Bracco was a third round pick and Goodrow was an undrafted free agent who ended up in San Jose.

Well, fast forward many years, it's Goodrow's pro ready frame and simple bottom 6 style that got him a start with the Sharks, which translated into a role on a Stanley Cup contender as a versatile big body grinder on a lower line. The story isn't really that unique, since the league is littered with these serviceable every day players on many rosters.

Meanwhile, Bracco highly skilled offensive skillset/tiny frame/bad skating/other considerations that made him slide to the third round on draft day were not resolved through many years of development and now he's out of the North American game. Not good enough to play on a top scoring line, he couldn't be utilized to do anything else on an NHL roster.

Again, Bracco probably has better practice skills and offensive abilities than a Barclay Goodrow, but you look at the overall picture, one is an NHLer and the other isn't. Dogma vs practice.

 

[Martin Skoula]

That viewpoint is an extreme simplification of drafting and development built on the boogie man of Tyler Biggs and a few other "fridges" the Leafs have picked over the years. But doesn't really bear out in a lot of circumstances.

To use a real world example. You could point to a 5'9" Jeremy Bracco who lit up the USNTDP in the mid 2010s and went on to play in the OHL as a guy whose "better at hockey" - to borrow a cute flippant term - than someone like a 6'2" Barclay Goodrow who was average producer in juniors around the same time. The draft bears this out. Bracco was a third round pick and Goodrow was an undrafted free agent who ended up in San Jose.

Well, fast forward many years, it's Goodrow's pro ready frame and simple bottom 6 style that got him a start with the Sharks, which translated into a role on a Stanley Cup contender as a versatile big body grinder on a lower line. The story isn't really that unique, since the league is littered with these serviceable every day players on many rosters.

Meanwhile, Bracco highly skilled offensive skillset/tiny frame/bad skating/other considerations that made him slide to the third round on draft day were not resolved through many years of development and now he's out of the North American game. Not good enough to play on a top scoring line, he couldn't be utilized to do anything else on an NHL roster.

Again, Bracco probably has better practice skills and offensive abilities than a Barclay Goodrow, but you look at the overall picture, one is an NHLer and the other isn't. Dogma vs practice.

I don't know if Bracco example is the best when we ended up distancing him from the organization over off-ice issues. When SDA or Abramov flame out to Europe it'll be a better point.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I’m not buying this new era draft and development hype like we have the Club Mensa of players. The Dubas era hasn’t really produced any quality or quantity of prospect we haven’t seen since the JFJ days, which a steady stream of decent but unremarkable players coming out of the draft past the first round:

Reimer
Gunnarsson
Stralman
Komarov
Stahlberg
Leivo
Brown
Johnsson
Verhaeghe
Kulemin

Half of those guys are from the Burke or Nonis era, and most were not even that large.

Leivo: 6'1", 173.
Brown: 5'10", 160.
Johnsson: 5'10", 183.
Verhaeghe: 6'1", 181.
Komarov: 5'10", 187.
Stralman: 5'11", 193.

Also, if you don't want guys like Bracco, then don't draft one-dimensional players. Nobody is asking Dubas to draft guys who can't shoot, skate, or defend. Off-ice issues aside, Bracco was likely kept from the NHL not because he was 5'9" (the Leafs had a ton of 5'9" given legit opportunities and Bracco probably should have had one too) but because other than being an excellent passer, he did not offer anything else that really stood out. He could be 6'2", 200lbs and faced the exact same fate.

If you track a lot of the Leafs' smaller guys, most of them are not one-dimensional. If they lack a defensive game, then at least they are strong passers and shooters. All of them are good skaters and need more work on strength than technique. If they do develop well enough to make the NHL, most of them won't need to be heavily sheltered.

 

[Stephen]

I don't know if Bracco example is the best when we ended up distancing him from the organization over off-ice issues. When SDA or Abramov flame out to Europe it'll be a better point.

Well, also Dzierkals, Timashov from the same Bracco draft. Or the Malgin vs Marchment.

It just comes down to the fact that not all skill sets and hockey playing abilities are captured in raw puck skills or offensive abilities.

 

[Stephen]

Half of those guys are from the Burke or Nonis era, and most were not even that large.

Leivo: 6'1", 173.
Brown: 5'10", 160.
Johnsson: 5'10", 183.
Verhaeghe: 6'1", 181.
Komarov: 5'10", 187.
Stralman: 5'11", 193.

Also, if you don't want guys like Bracco, then don't draft one-dimensional players. Nobody is asking Dubas to draft guys who can't shoot, skate, or defend. Off-ice issues aside, Bracco was likely kept from the NHL not because he was 5'9" (the Leafs had a ton of 5'9" given legit opportunities and Bracco probably should have had one too) but because other than being an excellent passer, he did not offer anything else that really stood out. He could be 6'2", 200lbs and faced the exact same fate.

If you track a lot of the Leafs' smaller guys, most of them are not one-dimensional. If they lack a defensive game, then at least they are strong passers and shooters. All of them are good skaters and need more work on strength than technique. If they do develop well enough to make the NHL, most of them won't need to be heavily sheltered.

I’m 100% about diverse skill sets and sizes, but responding to the idea that it’s preferable to draft “small and good” (needs more detail) vs “big and can’t play” (which roles?) as a catch all philosophy.

At the end of the day you can have small skilled guys who can’t play and big unskilled guys who can be groomed to play a role.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Well, also Dzierkals, Timashov from the same Bracco draft. Or the Malgin vs Marchment.

It just comes down to the fact that not all skill sets and hockey playing abilities are captured in raw puck skills or offensive abilities.

Which is why the Leafs do not draft for raw puck skills or offensive abilities. They draft for IQ. Guys who know how to play multiple roles and throughout the lineup, including in a bottom 6. It just so happens they are not super big guys (at least not right now).

We can look at last draft for example:
- Amirov is a two-way guy who thrives in tight areas and plays a full 200ft game, which is something the system lacked.
- Hirvonen has a profile similar to Kerfoot's with better faceoff ability. He probably won't be a PP option unless absolutely necessary (although wouldn't be out of place on one), but he looks like he can be a strong PK option like Kerfoot is for us right now.
- Niemela looks like he can be potentially another Liljegren if his injury doesn't hold him back. Skates well, plays a strong defensive game but can provide good offense from the point, and has some physicality to his game too. Limits his mistakes on the back end, which is also something we desperately need. He's only around 6'0", 165 lbs right now but I can easily see him getting over 6'0" and close to 200lbs like Liljegren when he hits his prime.
- Villeneuve is 6'1", 175 lbs right now and I can see him becoming a 6'2", 200+ lbs defender. He plays physical but still knows how to lead a team on the back end. I feel like he can adapt similar to a Justin Holl, where he transforms from a puck rusher to a reliable and puck moving reliable defensive guy with some offensive skill. Needs to fix his skating stride and get stronger, however.

The rest of the guys were later round guys, but if we are talking about guys who can fill bottom 6 roles: Tverberg and Schingoethe fit that bill quite well. Then took a chance on a few boom-busts in Ovchinnikov, Rindell, Miettinen, Miller, and Fusco (I was only really a fan of Miettinen and maybe Miller pre-draft, although there were better options than Miller IMO).

The solution is to not draft guys who can't play in general. Big or small. The thing is, big guys who can play usually go really high in the draft. Drafting a big guy and hoping they figure it out rarely ever leads to success. Drafting a small guy and hoping they grow, or get stronger, is something that happens a lot more often (as we've seen from that list you had before). I just look at a guy like Mikhail Abramov who was 5'10", 160 lbs or so at best when he was drafted and is now 6'0", 185-190. It's not huge, but his size should not prevent him from making the NHL as a two-way multi-dimensional forward in a bottom 6.

Also, a lot of those Bracco/Dzierkals picks were not Dubas'. Most guys under Dubas just had their first NA pro season under their belts, and it was a shortened season. It's too early to call them busts, and in terms of where they are relative to their ages, they are not looking too bad overall.

 

[stickty111]

#19. RHD. Axel Rindell
Overview
The first of a picks from the Leafs 2020 draft who had great D+1 seasons. Rindell was drafted as a double overager in the 6th round at 177th overall. He didn’t have a ton of fan fare around him, but in his draft season he put up a very solid 22 points in 47 games in the Finnish league as 19 year old. This season he took another step and put up 26 points in the same amount of games, while showing improvement in his overall game. So far, he has shown he is a very good player in a good league. There is still another step he could take, but a nice pick by the Leafs so far.

Stats
2019/2020
GP: 47
Goals: 6
Assists: 16
Points: 22
CF%: 51.7
2020/2021
GP: 47
Goals: 7
Assists: 19
Points: 26
CF%: 48.7
Statistical Analysis
In the 19/20 season, Rindell put up 22 points in 47 games while also driving play on a terrible Jukurit team. 13 of his points came at even strength while 9 came on the PP. Rindell’s Rel CF was +7.2 which was remarkable on how bad the team was. Based on TOI, he played a bottom pairing role with just over 18 minutes of ice time per game. This season in the same amount of games, he improved his point production by 4 points while playing a bigger role. He played a top pairing role averaging just over 20 minutes of ice time. His even strength production also improved with 18 of his 26 points coming there. His play driving skills weren’t as good this year, but still very solid with a Rel CF of 3.5 on another bad Jukurit team. Rindell progressed this season from a bottom pairing role to a top pairing role, and should take another level next season.
Talent Analysis
Breakdown of grades:
1- Poor
2- Below average
3- Average
4- Good
5- Great
Player Grades: Present/Future
Skating: 2.5/3.5
Shot: 4/4
Puck Skills: 4/4
Defence: 2.5/3
Compete: 3.5/3.5
IQ/Smarts: 3.5/3.5
The mian flaw scouts have for Rindell is his feet. His speed is average at best, and doesn’t move around that well. I don’t think it’s as bad as it sometimes gets mentioned, but it clearly needs work. The positive is according to reports, it did show improvement. I see him becoming an above average skater at full maturity, as I don’t see a fatal flaw but development is needed. He breaks the puck out well and that is an important thing.
Rindell is an offensive d man. I am a bit surprised on how good his shot is. He has scored a few goals on snipes and one timers. He has power and accuracy on his shot. He is also a good playmaker with good vision in the offensive zone. It’s Rindell’s offense that carries him and he has multiple tools that make him dangerous offensively.
Much like his skating, his defence isn’t as bad as it is made out to be. He can get running around defensively and makes poor decisions at times. Some of it has to do with how bad his team is, but he will need to improve in this area which he did this season. He plays an aggressive neutral zone which is the way you want your d men to play. Overall, I think he needs work but like his skating, it’s not a flaw and that ties in with his IQ. There are poor decision making plays sometimes, but again when you look at his team, they are just a bad team and that can affect even the better players. Rimdell shows nice IQ in the offensive zone with good plays, and knows when to shoot and when to just move the puck.
Rindell seems to be hard worker so not much to discuss here.
My Future Projection: At the very least, his point production and play driving skills in a good league his first 3 years make you interested. You have to keep an eye on him. I don’t know where he goes right, but a good prospect for sure. Chances are he won’t amount to anything and that’s where I stand too, but the tools offensively and production is something to keep in the back of our minds.
NHL Player? No, but that’s because he is a long way away.

@SeaOfBlue, what do you think? I know you aren't a fan

 

[FrankGallagher]

Who would you rather have Gustafsson or Edmundson? Our current draft philosophy will never find the type of these two that is actually a valuable player

 

[Stephen]

Which is why the Leafs do not draft for raw puck skills or offensive abilities. They draft for IQ. Guys who know how to play multiple roles and throughout the lineup, including in a bottom 6. It just so happens they are not super big guys (at least not right now).

We can look at last draft for example:
- Amirov is a two-way guy who thrives in tight areas and plays a full 200ft game, which is something the system lacked.
- Hirvonen has a profile similar to Kerfoot's with better faceoff ability. He probably won't be a PP option unless absolutely necessary (although wouldn't be out of place on one), but he looks like he can be a strong PK option like Kerfoot is for us right now.
- Niemela looks like he can be potentially another Liljegren if his injury doesn't hold him back. Skates well, plays a strong defensive game but can provide good offense from the point, and has some physicality to his game too. Limits his mistakes on the back end, which is also something we desperately need. He's only around 6'0", 165 lbs right now but I can easily see him getting over 6'0" and close to 200lbs like Liljegren when he hits his prime.
- Villeneuve is 6'1", 175 lbs right now and I can see him becoming a 6'2", 200+ lbs defender. He plays physical but still knows how to lead a team on the back end. I feel like he can adapt similar to a Justin Holl, where he transforms from a puck rusher to a reliable and puck moving reliable defensive guy with some offensive skill. Needs to fix his skating stride and get stronger, however.

The rest of the guys were later round guys, but if we are talking about guys who can fill bottom 6 roles: Tverberg and Schingoethe fit that bill quite well. Then took a chance on a few boom-busts in Ovchinnikov, Rindell, Miettinen, Miller, and Fusco (I was only really a fan of Miettinen and maybe Miller pre-draft, although there were better options than Miller IMO).

The solution is to not draft guys who can't play in general. Big or small. The thing is, big guys who can play usually go really high in the draft. Drafting a big guy and hoping they figure it out rarely ever leads to success. Drafting a small guy and hoping they grow, or get stronger, is something that happens a lot more often (as we've seen from that list you had before). I just look at a guy like Mikhail Abramov who was 5'10", 160 lbs or so at best when he was drafted and is now 6'0", 185-190. It's not huge, but his size should not prevent him from making the NHL as a two-way multi-dimensional forward in a bottom 6.

Also, a lot of those Bracco/Dzierkals picks were not Dubas'. Most guys under Dubas just had their first NA pro season under their belts, and it was a shortened season. It's too early to call them busts, and in terms of where they are relative to their ages, they are not looking too bad overall.

Amirov is a first round bluechip prospect, so I don't think he really factors into the discussion with what we're doing with picks lower in the draft because he has the ability to be a top line player.

But Bracco/Dzierkals/Timashov/Brooks are all prospects from the same thought process as this new crop of high IQ guys who are "good at hockey" as some have flippantly put it. You also have to remember that Dzierkals/Timashov/Dermott was also brought to you by GM Dubas in 2015 when he traded down from the Konecny pick similar to when he moved down to the Sandin pick, so the throughline in all this is obvious.

Here's a sampling of some of the pre-draft write ups on Bracco from a non Maple Leafs perspective:

2015 NHL Draft Profile: Could Jeremy Bracco become the steal of the draft for Montreal?

A small, but flashy and highly skilled, playmaker…tremendous skater with excellent quickness, balance on his edges and elusiveness with the puck…a quick set of hands…tough to handle when he gets going because he can elude defenders with his skating…great vision with the puck and makes tremendous passes…has a good wrist shot, but opts to be a pass-first playmaker…plays with grit and has no issue going to the net for chances.

Bracco has continued to exceed all expectations, setting scoresheets on fire with the Under-18 NTDP. Possessing a truly unique skating technique, relying on crafty edge-work and a heel-to-heel stride, Bracco is a dynamic offensive winger who competes at high speed. His ability to draw in defenders and then exploit their abandoned space is elite and speaks to his high-end vision and creativeness with the puck.

 

[Stephen]

Who would you rather have Gustafsson or Edmundson? Our current draft philosophy will never find the type of these two that is actually a valuable player

Samuel Girard is one of my favorite young defensemen in the game, so I have all the time in the world for 5'10" guys who can skate and QB a powerplay and generate the kind of offensive brilliance and transition flair Girard brings. But I don't think it works to simultaneously draft and develop a half dozen of these players of various pro level viability because there are different depth chart needs. Sometimes you do also need a young Joel Edmundson to go along with a young Sam Girard so you can promote them to fill different pro team slots.