Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread - 2021/22 PART III

[Thornbury]

The two placements I was most unsure of were Gogolev and Rindell. The C rankings were a little finnicky, C1 is pretty obvious, C2 is guys that haven't shown enough to be higher but have projectable skillsets/ tools, C3's are guys that while maybe not classing as NP's yet are guys that in my opinion are starting to taper of two early (albeit at very different places. Could make the argument that Rindell and Gogo belong there as well, but I stand by SDA as a C3 (albeit the best of them) Seems like the classic AAAA "not good enough for top 6, doesn't have the game for bottom 6" type player, with the caveat that he's got a couple of steps to even reach AAAA level offense.

Shows the need to draft someone with 2C potential - it's the most glaring gap in our prospect pool. Would also add that while Rubens misses out on the age limit, he seems to have strong potential to become a big, bottom pairing LD.

 

[Fogelhund]

Not saying this was the idea or not, but maybe Toronto had a strategy in that 2020 draft that saw the pick of Ghuele or Schnieder as potentially redundant knowing what could be available later in the draft?

What I mean by that is they selected Neimela in the 3rd round of that very draft by trading back their 2nd to acquire a later 2nd and a 3rd.

15: Rodion Amirov
59: Roni Hirvonen
64: Topi Neimela

We hope that Topi ends up being a quality D man for us one day, and is Right handed. Having a Topi Neimala, who reaches his most optimistic full potential, doesn't negate a need for a Guhle or Schneider in the system... quality teams need both types of players... puck movers, and physical guys.

 

[Morgs]

Well, to get an idea on the current state of Rindell, he's been benched for three games straight. Just too much of a liability defensively. At 21 years old it's starting to look really bad for him, as far as the NHL goes.

LOL. It's not even like Niemela either where his defense numbers are fine and people randomly complained about it because his goalie let in every shot with him on the ice early this season. Rindell is just straight not useful without the puck on his stick or inside the opponents blue line. Loved how he was randomly lauded for being amazing in the off-season/early season for no reason. No place for a guy like that unless they have a Ryan Merkley type of profile. Still can't believe he's getting benched though.

*I'm not cheering against him. I just don't see any NHL career path for him without significant improvement in basically every facet of his game.

 

[Morgs]

Shows the need to draft someone with 2C potential - it's the most glaring gap in our prospect pool. Would also add that while Rubens misses out on the age limit, he seems to have strong potential to become a big, bottom pairing LD.

Never ever draft for need, especially just in your pool.... but where we *should* be drafting has a bunch of guys that profile as potential top-6 C. May be some wingers with higher upsides, but there will almost assuredly be a great C prospect available in the 25-32 range.

 

[daethfromabove1979]

Goal and assist for Niemela. Hirvonen an assist.

That was a beauty assist. Looks like he fakes the shot, freezes the defenders, then passes it but it also looks like he faked a follow through too. Pretty tricky.

 

[Mara]

LOL. It's not even like Niemela either where his defense numbers are fine and people randomly complained about it because his goalie let in every shot with him on the ice early this season. Rindell is just straight not useful without the puck on his stick or inside the opponents blue line. Loved how he was randomly lauded for being amazing in the off-season/early season for no reason. No place for a guy like that unless they have a Ryan Merkley type of profile. Still can't believe he's getting benched though.

*I'm not cheering against him. I just don't see any NHL career path for him without significant improvement in basically every facet of his game.

Well, that's not exactly true about Niemelä. He WAS a disaster at the start of the season, many of his mistakes directly led to goals. I don't know if it was jitters or what, but he very quickly and efficiently improved his play. The coaching staff slighty changed what he was doing, and his play on his own end immediately improved. They tried going that route with Rindell, they took him off his "4th forward" role and tried to make him play more conservative - and it didn't work. The guy is just a disaster as a defender. At this point in time, if anyone has any hopes for this guy, just drop it, and if he turns it around be pleasantly surprised. But it's not looking likely rn.

 

[Twine Tickler]

We hope that Topi ends up being a quality D man for us one day, and is Right handed. Having a Topi Neimala, who reaches his most optimistic full potential, doesn't negate a need for a Guhle or Schneider in the system... quality teams need both types of players... puck movers, and physical guys.

Historically in every draft there are about 2-3 high end defenseman selected in the first round. Usually those defensemen are selected in the top 10. After the top 10 there is a significant drop off.

After that top 10 you see teams select these big physical defensemen that you speak of, and more often than not they play decently long careers and produce next to nothing offensively. They have high NHL projectabilities, but hardly ever excel beyond this defense first role. These type of players are readily available every UFA season. Cody Ceci might be the best example of this.

Similar Junior/AHL stats, solid NHL defenseman who is now playing on his 4th team in his 9 year NHL career. I really think Ottawa would have done better had they selected any one of the 5 picks that followed Ceci (Tom Wilson, Tomas Hertl, Teuvo Teravainen, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Scott Laughton)

this is not an outlier, look at the last 15 drafts and look at defenseman selected in that 10-20 range who were praised with being "2-way" big, strong and physical in junior, only to be type cast as defensive role playing 1-way d-men who rotate teams through their entire careers. for Every Ryan Pulock there are about 10 Logan Stanley's and Jamie Oleksiak's

These big strong 2-way D-men in junior can put up points in Junior only because of their roles on their teams, and the sheer physical difference between them and their peers. They hardly ever translate that into the NHL level. If they do, they are usually the Doughty's and Hedman's of the world and are selected within the top 3-5 picks.

for the Record, I am not opposed to selecting a D-man after the top 10. Plenty of franchise altering D-men get selected beyond then. But they are almost always exclusively more offensive minded (McAvoy, Karlson, Carlson, Theodore ..etc)

Draft skill, acquire size. That is the way I see it at least.

I have no doubt Schneider and Guhle will be NHL defensemen, but statistically based on their profiles, they will likely fall into that category of D-men that we see in UFA in 7 years time or traded away from their drafted clubs. I'll lean with history on this one

 

[Twine Tickler]

I think the way you have to draft in the first round is go for the high ceiling players. Regardless of their projectability. What good is projectability if they fill a role that can easily be filled in free agency? I am sure a ton of people had their doubts on a Claude Giroux being a smallish center who was ripping up the worst league in the CHL.

We chose the safe pick in Jiri Tlusty that year because of that projectability. After all he was drafted out of a mens league, of course he can play in the show right?

we dished him for Poni I believe like 5 years later, and he basically fizzled off into nothing 5-6 years later, while the more skilled Giroux is still ripping up the NHL approaching 1000 games.

Of course my strategy is prone to having complete busts. And by busts I mean zero NHL games. But even if you hit every 2nd year, you'll be better off than drafting a bunch of Fredrich Gaulthier's over and over again.

 

[WTFMAN99]

So saying Amirov will be a top 6 forward is a step to far but after 1 NHL game you are comfortable saying Schneider will be a 40 point 2-4 defensemen? Interesting.

Schneider played well in his draft +1 year, playing well in his first pro season in the AHL and had a strong debut in the NHL.

Amirov is struggling to get on the ice with any consistency.

 

[stickty111]

Looks like Koster has been promoted to the top pair for today's game.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Schneider played well in his draft +1 year, playing well in his first pro season in the AHL and had a strong debut in the NHL.

Amirov is struggling to get on the ice with any consistency.

Amirov had a strong draft +1 year and has been injured this year. It still boils down to you contradicting yourself blatantly lol he has played 1 NHL game and you are projecting him out as Jake Muzzin or something but scoffing at someone trying to project Amirov as a top 6 forward. Come on now.

 

[Leafs1991]

Not saying this was the idea or not, but maybe Toronto had a strategy in that 2020 draft that saw the pick of Ghuele or Schnieder as potentially redundant knowing what could be available later in the draft?

What I mean by that is they selected Neimela in the 3rd round of that very draft by trading back their 2nd to acquire a later 2nd and a 3rd.

15: Rodion Amirov
59: Roni Hirvonen
64: Topi Neimela

in the 15 picks that were made from 59 to 73, 9 of them were defensemen. I arbitrarily chose 15 picks from 59 because that gives a pseudo representation of the pocket of players the Leafs may have been hoping to select at that time. And if you wanted to stretch that logic, of the 20 picks made from 54-73, 11 of the selections were Defensemen. Needless to say, it looked like there was a pocket of D that maybe Toronto felt comfortable waiting to select. Because at the time, the developmental timelines of Schneider/Ghuele and the D selected between say picks 54-73 appeared to be relatively close, it was only the likelihood of developing and the ceilings that really differed. I think Schneider playing NHL action as early as he is can only be viewed as a bit shocking.

Given Dubas' very consistent approach at trying to trade back in the draft to acquire more picks maybe this was the strategy they felt they could take. Take the player they felt had the highest ceiling (Amirov, LW) and then they can always select a D in the late 2nd and early 3rd. I fully recognize that the trading of pick 44 for 59+64 did not happen before the Rodion selection so you can say that my theory may not make sense. But like I said, I think Kyle and Co. go into the draft with a strategy in mind that is fluid and dynamic. Always looking to trade back and multiply. I think when they arrived at 44 they could see they didn't need to select because that crop of D-men was potentially still going to be there later in that 2nd and early 3rd. Hence the trade.

For the record, I still firmly believe that Toronto Brass felt like Rodion was the BPA at 15, they would not make that selection otherwise. But I think having a draft strategy like the one I mentioned above is not completely out of the question here.

I'm happy for NYR, they look like they got a good player in Schneider, but I am not upset with the Rodion selection at all. He will prove why he was selected at 15 sooner rather than later IMO. I am very excited about Rodion personally. I think we have a gem there.

Agreed. I'll only become disappointed with Amirov if/when he finally comes to TO and lands up not becoming a top 6 player. Until then, I am not making any judgements on the player he can be.

 

[Leafs1991]

I think the way you have to draft in the first round is go for the high ceiling players. Regardless of their projectability. What good is projectability if they fill a role that can easily be filled in free agency? I am sure a ton of people had their doubts on a Claude Giroux being a smallish center who was ripping up the worst league in the CHL.

We chose the safe pick in Jiri Tlusty that year because of that projectability. After all he was drafted out of a mens league, of course he can play in the show right?

we dished him for Poni I believe like 5 years later, and he basically fizzled off into nothing 5-6 years later, while the more skilled Giroux is still ripping up the NHL approaching 1000 games.

Of course my strategy is prone to having complete busts. And by busts I mean zero NHL games. But even if you hit every 2nd year, you'll be better off than drafting a bunch of Fredrich Gaulthier's over and over again.

It's the same thing with Garland. I remember so many people saying how he was never going to make it due to size, playing in the Q etc and of course they were proven wrong.

That doesn't mean every player with skill will make it but I'd rather try for that than just going for size every time. Look how well that did for us when Burke was here.

 

[Menzinger]

Going to the Gophers game tonight, excited to see Koster and Knies.

Believe it's going to be streamed on TSN for Canadian based folks

 

[Knies iT]

I don't really care about the production *that* much to be honest. He's gonna play all situations and be a top 2-4 defenseman and probably give you 30-40 points a season. He has a great outlet pass, excellent mobility and hard as hell to forecheck against, those things all have plenty of value beyond simple production. I think he's the guy you win with on your blue line.

No guarantee Amirov is in the top 6 at all, none. We can hope and he needs to start getting into games consistently so that he can actually develop.

I agree with your projection on Schneider and think he gets slept on here, but Amirov's floor is a lot higher than people give him credit for.

Beyond production, Amirov's transition game and defensive awareness will find him a role here even if the offense doesn't translate (unlikely). He's significantly better in those areas than a Kravtsov or Denisenko for example. A 6'1" zone entry wizard with some of the best skating in the draft class, as per Leaf scouts, and a two-way game to go with high-end goal scoring potential is a crazy package.

At the end of the day - Amirov + Niemela in the 3rd round > Schneider + the field.

 

[Knies iT]

Knies already on the board, his first goal since Nov 20. Wrister in the slot.

 

[stickty111]

Knies already on the board, his first goal since Nov 20. Wrister in the slot.

Koster also had a nice play to pick up the assist on the 1st goal.

 

[fahad203]

Going to the Gophers game tonight, excited to see Koster and Knies.

Believe it's going to be streamed on TSN for Canadian based folks

Lucky you seeing anything live

 

[Twine Tickler]

Beating a dead horse. UFA play the f***ing kid already lol

 

[Bonin21]

 

[Bonin21]

He is already toying with opponents. Alaska isn't good but he is a man child and I can't remember a freshman this NHL ready coming through here in the last 10ish years at least.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

Voit with 5A all primary.

 

[stickty111]

Voit's been really good this season but what he hadn't had was a big game, but he changed that today. He had 5 assists today and all were primary. Just reading on twitter, he was a huge reason why Sarnia came back from 5-3 in the 3rd to win it in reg.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Voit's been really good this season but what he hadn't had was a big game, but he changed that today. He had 5 assists today and all were primary. Just reading on twitter, he was a huge reason why Sarnia came back from 5-3 in the 3rd to win it in reg.

I mean he had 5 assists... I would damn well hope he was a huge reason why Sarnia came back from down 5-3.

 

[nobody]

I mean he had 5 assists... I would damn well hope he was a huge reason why Sarnia came back from down 5-3.

It's embarrassing that he didn't get 1st star this game. The announcers must've been sleeping.

Just saw the game highlights. He's very shifty and a great passer. Lots of very smart quick passes and puck touches for his assists today.