Not saying this was the idea or not, but maybe Toronto had a strategy in that 2020 draft that saw the pick of Ghuele or Schnieder as potentially redundant knowing what could be available later in the draft?
What I mean by that is they selected Neimela in the 3rd round of that very draft by trading back their 2nd to acquire a later 2nd and a 3rd.
15: Rodion Amirov
59: Roni Hirvonen
64: Topi Neimela
in the 15 picks that were made from 59 to 73, 9 of them were defensemen. I arbitrarily chose 15 picks from 59 because that gives a pseudo representation of the pocket of players the Leafs may have been hoping to select at that time. And if you wanted to stretch that logic, of the 20 picks made from 54-73, 11 of the selections were Defensemen. Needless to say, it looked like there was a pocket of D that maybe Toronto felt comfortable waiting to select. Because at the time, the developmental timelines of Schneider/Ghuele and the D selected between say picks 54-73 appeared to be relatively close, it was only the likelihood of developing and the ceilings that really differed. I think Schneider playing NHL action as early as he is can only be viewed as a bit shocking.
Given Dubas' very consistent approach at trying to trade back in the draft to acquire more picks maybe this was the strategy they felt they could take. Take the player they felt had the highest ceiling (Amirov, LW) and then they can always select a D in the late 2nd and early 3rd. I fully recognize that the trading of pick 44 for 59+64 did not happen before the Rodion selection so you can say that my theory may not make sense. But like I said, I think Kyle and Co. go into the draft with a strategy in mind that is fluid and dynamic. Always looking to trade back and multiply. I think when they arrived at 44 they could see they didn't need to select because that crop of D-men was potentially still going to be there later in that 2nd and early 3rd. Hence the trade.
For the record, I still firmly believe that Toronto Brass felt like Rodion was the BPA at 15, they would not make that selection otherwise. But I think having a draft strategy like the one I mentioned above is not completely out of the question here.
I'm happy for NYR, they look like they got a good player in Schneider, but I am not upset with the Rodion selection at all. He will prove why he was selected at 15 sooner rather than later IMO. I am very excited about Rodion personally. I think we have a gem there.