Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread - 2021/22 PART III

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Why? Schneider doesn't have the tools to be a big time point producer from the point. Amirov is going to be just fine and a fixture in the top six.

I don't really care about the production *that* much to be honest. He's gonna play all situations and be a top 2-4 defenseman and probably give you 30-40 points a season. He has a great outlet pass, excellent mobility and hard as hell to forecheck against, those things all have plenty of value beyond simple production. I think he's the guy you win with on your blue line.

No guarantee Amirov is in the top 6 at all, none. We can hope and he needs to start getting into games consistently so that he can actually develop.
 
Outside of drafting him for his namesake, Josh Doan really did not look good in his draft year. Heck, even last season he was usually the 3rd best forward on his line most games. I think the only reason he was drafted so high by the Yotes last season was that he's a big body kid who is local and the son of your franchise player. The fact that he's really taken off and done so well has to be a surprise to most not to mention once again, he has a great supporting cast of players around him who have allowed him to play his style of game.

QoC is also a big part of it.

Arizona State has not played against very many good teams. He had one good game against Northeastern, which is a respectable program, but only had 3 points in 6 games against BU and Denver otherwise, which are the only other good teams I think he has played against.

Raking up points against Colorado College, St. Thomas (which was a D3 program until this year), Cornell, UMass Lowell, New Hampshire, etc. does not mean anything to me. In fact, if he wasn't a PPG player, I would be concerned.

I don't think I regret missing on any OAs except maybe Moser. I don't think he should have been a 2nd round pick, but he has been on my board for a while and I think he should have been taken a lot sooner than his D+3 (especially in the 7th round). The only thing may have been saving the 7th round pick we had to pay to pick Tverberg and instead just taking him with the Fusco pick. That way we could have maybe taken a Braden Holt (although we could have taken him instead of Peksa, which we likely should have done anyways), Ty Gallagher (who went to Boston with the pick we traded to get Tverberg), or Connor Kurth, who looks like he may go a fair bit higher than the 7th round in 2022 as an OAer.
 
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Kinda OT...makes me sad to see Schneider score first goal in his first game while struggling to see Amirov get games in at all :(
I know it's annoying when people say "we could have had.....", but, yeah, I agree. I was begging, in front of my TV, for the Leafs to pick Schneider or Guhle! That said, still plenty of time for Amirov to prove us wrong.
 
Yea the Amirov pick isn't aging too well, and it's basically been out of Amirovs control as to why.
I suspect this comment won't age well TBH...

Rodion has game breaking potential. I'd say he has the highest ceiling of all our prospects TBH. I've been very vocal on here about his development in Russia, but unfortunately that's just how shit works over there. It's challenging as a Leaf fan to see our prospects get denied opportunities when there is very clearly a better developmental option available in other leagues. It unfortunately is not better for their wallets and life away from the rink likely.

That said, I suspect Rodion understands that the move to NA is an inevitable move that he will eventually have to make. I would not be surprised if he makes the move to the Marlies or even the Leafs as early as next year.

Schnieder is a solid player, but he wont even hold a candle to Amirov in 2-3 years IMO. One is a borderline elite talent, the other is just good.
 
I suspect this comment won't age well TBH...

Rodion has game breaking potential. I'd say he has the highest ceiling of all our prospects TBH. I've been very vocal on here about his development in Russia, but unfortunately that's just how shit works over there. It's challenging as a Leaf fan to see our prospects get denied opportunities when there is very clearly a better developmental option available in other leagues. It unfortunately is not better for their wallets and life away from the rink likely.

That said, I suspect Rodion understands that the move to NA is an inevitable move that he will eventually have to make. I would not be surprised if he makes the move to the Marlies or even the Leafs as early as next year.

Schnieder is a solid player, but he wont even hold a candle to Amirov in 2-3 years IMO. One is a borderline elite talent, the other is just good.


This is always going to be controversial, even if Amirov becomes a very good player. Schneider looked very solid last night, didn't look like a rookie, even without the goal. He's mobile, strong, and physical, exactly the type of D that we could use right now.... which is why it's controversial.... We look around trying to find an upgrade over Holl, and Schneider would have been exactly that. I'm not saying Amirov was a bad pick, or that he won't work out for us... just explaining... plus it's unusual to see D men making the show before F's.... Oh well, patience and I'm sure it will work out for us.
 
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I don't really care about the production *that* much to be honest. He's gonna play all situations and be a top 2-4 defenseman and probably give you 30-40 points a season. He has a great outlet pass, excellent mobility and hard as hell to forecheck against, those things all have plenty of value beyond simple production. I think he's the guy you win with on your blue line.

No guarantee Amirov is in the top 6 at all, none. We can hope and he needs to start getting into games consistently so that he can actually develop.

Schneider is gonna be a 40 point (top-30 range in D scoring) top 2 defenseman but there's no guarantee Amirov makes a top-6.
 
This is always going to be controversial, even if Amirov becomes a very good player. Schneider looked very solid last night, didn't look like a rookie, even without the goal. He's mobile, strong, and physical, exactly the type of D that we could use right now.... which is why it's controversial.... We look around trying to find an upgrade over Holl, and Schneider would have been exactly that. I'm not saying Amirov was a bad pick, or that he won't work out for us... just explaining... plus it's unusual to see D men making the show before F's.... Oh well, patience and I'm sure it will work out for us.
I agree, I am not trying to say had we selected Schneider it would have ben a poor selection. By all accounts, and from what I have seen I think he will be a very solid player. I was personally pulling for that pick at the time of the draft.

I think Schneider represents a safe pick, whereas Rodion represents a high upside pick. I think Rodion's floor is still quite high and there is a ceiling that he has that Schneider IMO comes no where close to. There have always been people that shit on the Amirov pick, and feel like we should have taken Schneider. The argument was always that we needed an RHD in 2020-21 not season "X" when Schneider would eventually make the jump to the NHL.

I will say, Season "X" has come far sooner than I personally suspected, but even then we have Timmy and Brodie down the right side, with Topi on the back burner. Conversely our biggest positional need as of now is now on our Left side wing, which was almost the exact opposite at that time of the Rodion Selection. Which is exactly why you always select BPA. You never know what your needs will be when that player becomes ready for the NHL
 
I don't really care about the production *that* much to be honest. He's gonna play all situations and be a top 2-4 defenseman and probably give you 30-40 points a season. He has a great outlet pass, excellent mobility and hard as hell to forecheck against, those things all have plenty of value beyond simple production. I think he's the guy you win with on your blue line.

No guarantee Amirov is in the top 6 at all, none. We can hope and he needs to start getting into games consistently so that he can actually develop.
So saying Amirov will be a top 6 forward is a step to far but after 1 NHL game you are comfortable saying Schneider will be a 40 point 2-4 defensemen? Interesting.
 
Not saying this was the idea or not, but maybe Toronto had a strategy in that 2020 draft that saw the pick of Ghuele or Schnieder as potentially redundant knowing what could be available later in the draft?

What I mean by that is they selected Neimela in the 3rd round of that very draft by trading back their 2nd to acquire a later 2nd and a 3rd.

15: Rodion Amirov
59: Roni Hirvonen
64: Topi Neimela

in the 15 picks that were made from 59 to 73, 9 of them were defensemen. I arbitrarily chose 15 picks from 59 because that gives a pseudo representation of the pocket of players the Leafs may have been hoping to select at that time. And if you wanted to stretch that logic, of the 20 picks made from 54-73, 11 of the selections were Defensemen. Needless to say, it looked like there was a pocket of D that maybe Toronto felt comfortable waiting to select. Because at the time, the developmental timelines of Schneider/Ghuele and the D selected between say picks 54-73 appeared to be relatively close, it was only the likelihood of developing and the ceilings that really differed. I think Schneider playing NHL action as early as he is can only be viewed as a bit shocking.

Given Dubas' very consistent approach at trying to trade back in the draft to acquire more picks maybe this was the strategy they felt they could take. Take the player they felt had the highest ceiling (Amirov, LW) and then they can always select a D in the late 2nd and early 3rd. I fully recognize that the trading of pick 44 for 59+64 did not happen before the Rodion selection so you can say that my theory may not make sense. But like I said, I think Kyle and Co. go into the draft with a strategy in mind that is fluid and dynamic. Always looking to trade back and multiply. I think when they arrived at 44 they could see they didn't need to select because that crop of D-men was potentially still going to be there later in that 2nd and early 3rd. Hence the trade.

For the record, I still firmly believe that Toronto Brass felt like Rodion was the BPA at 15, they would not make that selection otherwise. But I think having a draft strategy like the one I mentioned above is not completely out of the question here.

I'm happy for NYR, they look like they got a good player in Schneider, but I am not upset with the Rodion selection at all. He will prove why he was selected at 15 sooner rather than later IMO. I am very excited about Rodion personally. I think we have a gem there.
 
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Not saying this was the idea or not, but maybe Toronto had a strategy in that 2020 draft that saw the pick of Ghuele or Schnieder as potentially redundant knowing what could be available later in the draft?

What I mean by that is they selected Neimela in the 3rd round of that very draft by trading back their 2nd to acquire a later 2nd and a 3rd.

15: Rodion Amirov
59: Roni Hirvonen
64: Topi Neimela

in the 15 picks that were made from 59 to 73, 9 of them were defensemen. I arbitrarily chose 15 picks from 59 because that gives a pseudo representation of the pocket of players the Leafs may have been hoping to select at that time. And if you wanted to stretch that logic, of the 20 picks made from 54-73, 11 of the selections were Defensemen. Needless to say, it looked like there was a pocket of D that maybe Toronto felt comfortable waiting to select. Because at the time, the developmental timelines of Schneider/Ghuele and the D selected between say picks 54-73 appeared to be relatively close, it was only the likelihood of developing and the ceilings that really differed. I think Schneider playing NHL action as early as he is can only be viewed as a bit shocking.

Given Dubas' very consistent approach at trying to trade back in the draft to acquire more picks maybe this was the strategy they felt they could take. Take the player they felt had the highest ceiling (Amirov, LW) and then they can always select a D in the late 2nd and early 3rd. I fully recognize that the trading of pick 44 for 59+64 did not happen before the Rodion selection so you can say that my theory may not make sense. But like I said, I think Kyle and Co. go into the draft with a strategy in mind that is fluid and dynamic. Always looking to trade back and multiply. I think when they arrived at 44 they could see they didn't need to select because that crop of D-men was potentially still going to be there later in that 2nd and early 3rd. Hence the trade.

For the record, I still firmly believe that Toronto Brass felt like Rodion was the BPA at 15, they would not make that selection otherwise. But I think having a draft strategy like the one I mentioned above is not completely out of the question here.

I'm happy for NYR, they look like they got a good player in Schneider, but I am not upset with the Rodion selection at all. He will prove why he was selected at 15 sooner rather than later IMO. I am very excited about Rodion personally. I think we have a gem there.
1 comment on this, Schneider was always seen as a near NHL ready player leading up to the draft. Physically mature and one of the oldest players in the draft. I don't think it would surprise anyone that he was quick to make it to the NHL level.
 
Outside of drafting him for his namesake, Josh Doan really did not look good in his draft year. Heck, even last season he was usually the 3rd best forward on his line most games. I think the only reason he was drafted so high by the Yotes last season was that he's a big body kid who is local and the son of your franchise player. The fact that he's really taken off and done so well has to be a surprise to most not to mention once again, he has a great supporting cast of players around him who have allowed him to play his style of game.
Yup, he was taken because his dad works for the team. They mentioned it during the game.
 
You never know with Russians. Nothing to be worried about there yet everyone until he comes over to NA and doesn't show well.

Some of you overreact so much it's ridiculous.
 
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1 comment on this, Schneider was always seen as a near NHL ready player leading up to the draft. Physically mature and one of the oldest players in the draft. I don't think it would surprise anyone that he was quick to make it to the NHL level.
Ya I mean he had the frame and body of work to suggest he would eventually be a pretty safe pick to be in the NHL at some point in his life, but I really don't think many teams would have thought in his D+1.5 he would be in the NHL.

To me he is a Brandon Carlo like player. High NHL projectability, lower upside. Hugely beneficial to have a player like him in the lineup, but also not a player that was can't miss at 15 OA. Lets be real, he's never going to get PP1 in NYR with Fox being ahead of him on the depth chart, and realistically won't even get PP2 for a while with Trouba ahead of him. He essentially represents what Liljegren represents in our current lineup. Just a very solid 2 way defensemen that leans more defensive that offensive. Higher upside than what their current roles suggest, but not that of a can't miss. I'd say Timmy and him have similar upsides. Could he have been our future #1 RHD? maybe for sure. But I also think Timmy has that same potential TBH.

Again, I am trying not to take anything away from Schneider. I was in favor of that selection at 15OA at the time. But looking back at it, I wouldn't trade Amirov for Schneider straight up right now, nor do I expect that to change in the future. Hell, I am not even sure you trade Neimela for Schneider at this point. I love Schneider's game, I think he's going to be a very solid player for a long time. But I don't think he will be a player we look back and regret not selecting. Of course I could be dead ass wrong, I just am more intrigued by the idea of Rodion's impact in the NHL vs Braden's. Even though Braden has arrived earlier and did not look out of place (from what I've read on here)
 
Gonna take a shot a mid-season prospect ranking, but as a depth chart rather than straight list. For aggregation purposes bold is my 1st tier, Underlined is 2nd, everyone else 3rd. Going to go 5 deep at every spot, must 99 born or younger. everyone else is an HM (potential discussion point if we're deeper in some places than others
[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Left Wing[/TD][TD]Centre[/TD][TD]Right Wing[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1. Knies[/TD][TD]1. Holmberg[/TD][TD]1. Steeves[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2. Amirov[/TD][TD]2. Abramov[/TD][TD]2. Tverberg[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]3.Robertson[/TD][TD]3. Hirvonen[/TD][TD]3. Miettinen[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]4. Abbruzzese[/TD][TD]4. Voit[/TD][TD]4. Ovchinnikov[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]5. Gogolev[/TD][TD]5.Kressler[/TD][TD]5. Miller[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Left Defence[/TD][TD]Right Defence[/TD][TD]HM's[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1. Kral[/TD][TD]1. Niemela[/TD][TD]1. SDA[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2.Kokkonen[/TD][TD]2. Villeneuve[/TD][TD]2. Kizimov[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]3. Koster[/TD][TD]3.Rindell[/TD][TD][/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]4. O'Connell[/TD][TD]4. Loponen[/TD][TD][/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD][/TD]
[TD]5. Fusco[/TD][TD][/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]

In Tiers (by position tier 1 and 2, sub tiers in 3)
A 1-4 Knies/Amirov/Robertson/Niemela
B 5-12 Abbruzzese/Holmberg/Abramov/Hirvonen/Steeves/Tverberg/Kral/Kokkonen
C1 13-17- Voit/Villeneuve/Koster/Miettinen/Gogolev/ Rindell
C2 18-20 Kressler/Ovchinnikov/Miller
C3 20-26 SDA/Loponen/Kizimov/Fusco/O'Connell
 
Gonna take a shot a mid-season prospect ranking, but as a depth chart rather than straight list. For aggregation purposes bold is my 1st tier, Underlined is 2nd, everyone else 3rd. Going to go 5 deep at every spot, must 99 born or younger. everyone else is an HM (potential discussion point if we're deeper in some places than others
[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Left Wing[/TD][TD]Centre[/TD][TD]Right Wing[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1. Knies[/TD][TD]1. Holmberg[/TD][TD]1. Steeves[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2. Amirov[/TD][TD]2. Abramov[/TD][TD]2. Tverberg[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]3.Robertson[/TD][TD]3. Hirvonen[/TD][TD]3. Miettinen[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]4. Abbruzzese[/TD][TD]4. Voit[/TD][TD]4. Ovchinnikov[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]5. Gogolev[/TD][TD]5.Kressler[/TD][TD]5. Miller[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Left Defence[/TD][TD]Right Defence[/TD][TD]HM's[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1. Kral[/TD][TD]1. Niemela[/TD][TD]1. SDA[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2.Kokkonen[/TD][TD]2. Villeneuve[/TD][TD]2. Kizimov[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]3. Koster[/TD][TD]3.Rindell[/TD][TD][/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]4. O'Connell[/TD][TD]4. Loponen[/TD][TD][/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD][/TD]
[TD]5. Fusco[/TD][TD][/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
In Tiers (by position tier 1 and 2, sub tiers in 3)
A 1-4 Knies/Amirov/Robertson/Niemela
B 5-12 Abbruzzese/Holmberg/Abramov/Hirvonen/Steeves/Tverberg/Kral/Kokkonen
C1 13-17- Voit/Villeneuve/Koster/Miettinen/Gogolev/ Rindell
C2 18-20 Kressler/Ovchinnikov/Miller
C3 20-26 SDA/Loponen/Kizimov/Fusco/O'Connell

I more or less agree but I think you still easily swap SDA and Rindell's position on these rankings. Rindell is probably still good enough to be at the back end of C2, but he is iffy.

SDA is far from a bust at this point. His plus minus sucks and he may be a prospect who gets moved to help out elsewhere, but he still looks fine at the AHL level all things considered.
 
Gonna take a shot a mid-season prospect ranking, but as a depth chart rather than straight list. For aggregation purposes bold is my 1st tier, Underlined is 2nd, everyone else 3rd. Going to go 5 deep at every spot, must 99 born or younger. everyone else is an HM (potential discussion point if we're deeper in some places than others
[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Left Wing[/TD][TD]Centre[/TD][TD]Right Wing[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1. Knies[/TD][TD]1. Holmberg[/TD][TD]1. Steeves[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2. Amirov[/TD][TD]2. Abramov[/TD][TD]2. Tverberg[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]3.Robertson[/TD][TD]3. Hirvonen[/TD][TD]3. Miettinen[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]4. Abbruzzese[/TD][TD]4. Voit[/TD][TD]4. Ovchinnikov[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]5. Gogolev[/TD][TD]5.Kressler[/TD][TD]5. Miller[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Left Defence[/TD][TD]Right Defence[/TD][TD]HM's[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]1. Kral[/TD][TD]1. Niemela[/TD][TD]1. SDA[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]2.Kokkonen[/TD][TD]2. Villeneuve[/TD][TD]2. Kizimov[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]3. Koster[/TD][TD]3.Rindell[/TD][TD][/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]4. O'Connell[/TD][TD]4. Loponen[/TD][TD][/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD][/TD]
[TD]5. Fusco[/TD][TD][/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
In Tiers (by position tier 1 and 2, sub tiers in 3)
A 1-4 Knies/Amirov/Robertson/Niemela
B 5-12 Abbruzzese/Holmberg/Abramov/Hirvonen/Steeves/Tverberg/Kral/Kokkonen
C1 13-17- Voit/Villeneuve/Koster/Miettinen/Gogolev/ Rindell
C2 18-20 Kressler/Ovchinnikov/Miller
C3 20-26 SDA/Loponen/Kizimov/Fusco/O'Connell
Lay it out like that and it makes a compelling case to move a LW.

Personally I’d move Robertson as I see Knies and Amirov being better fits as complimentary players alongside the core 4. As long as those 4 are here they will be chewing up the prime offensive opportunities so Robby wont be used to his full potential.

If you can get a young centre for him I think you make the move, even though you would be giving up the higher upside player in a deal like that.
 
I more or less agree but I think you still easily swap SDA and Rindell's position on these rankings. Rindell is probably still good enough to be at the back end of C2, but he is iffy.

SDA is far from a bust at this point. His plus minus sucks and he may be a prospect who gets moved to help out elsewhere, but he still looks fine at the AHL level all things considered.

The two placements I was most unsure of were Gogolev and Rindell. The C rankings were a little finnicky, C1 is pretty obvious, C2 is guys that haven't shown enough to be higher but have projectable skillsets/ tools, C3's are guys that while maybe not classing as NP's yet are guys that in my opinion are starting to taper of two early (albeit at very different places. Could make the argument that Rindell and Gogo belong there as well, but I stand by SDA as a C3 (albeit the best of them) Seems like the classic AAAA "not good enough for top 6, doesn't have the game for bottom 6" type player, with the caveat that he's got a couple of steps to even reach AAAA level offense.
 
Schneider scored in his first game after not scoring in 24 AHL games :laugh: people using that to push their agenda are kidding themselves. We got a better (or at least higher ceiling) defenseman than Schneider - and probably Guhle for that matter - in the third round.

Yep. Coupled with the fact his production, puck skills and awful passing for a d0 (one of the oldest and physically mature) defenseman showed people just liked his size and physicality and were hoping the skating, defense, and puck skills would develop to at least average.

He had a good d+1 on a stacked team, and his first pro season hasn't been bad, but someone saying he's gonna be a top-30 point producing defenseman? Nothing in his profile suggests he'll be anything better than a pure dfd that chips in points through an average transition game. His ceiling is Carlo and that's hoping his defense improved SIGNIFICANTLY since his d0 where he was consistently getting blown by outside and giving up the blueline more often than Morgan Rielly.
 
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I more or less agree but I think you still easily swap SDA and Rindell's position on these rankings. Rindell is probably still good enough to be at the back end of C2, but he is iffy.

SDA is far from a bust at this point. His plus minus sucks and he may be a prospect who gets moved to help out elsewhere, but he still looks fine at the AHL level all things considered.

Well, to get an idea on the current state of Rindell, he's been benched for three games straight. Just too much of a liability defensively. At 21 years old it's starting to look really bad for him, as far as the NHL goes.
 
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