Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread - 2021/22 PART III

[francis246]

Duszak is a great offensive D-man who has come a long way defensively but unfortunately for him, he's going to be valued only as a one-dimensional offensive d-man at the NHL level. We haven't exactly been a team that has prioritized those players or allowed them to thrive in our systems/lineups and I don't see Duszak breaking the mold. I think in order for him to succeed, he needs to go to a team that has a d-man spot dedicated purely for his role.



Durzi actually didn't improve the year after we drafted him until after we had already traded him. He was a very good offensive d-man but his foot speed and the defensive game needed work in order for him to become an NHL player. When he was traded by the Leafs, he was injured IIRC and was having a down year to that point. He was also drafted as a D+1 guy at age 19 after a good showing at the development camp. His making it to the NHL was a bit of a surprise for me because I didn't think he had a strong enough defensive game coming out of junior to really help him thrive as a pro but his offense has carried him to the NHL this year. Another major factor that also has carried him up is the fact that the Kings have absolutely 0 better options when it comes to NHL-ready d-men.

Behind Doughty and Roy they have a bunch of rookies and 3rd pairing d-men. Outside of Doughty, they have no offensive d-men. Durzi isn't stellar defensively and I don't think he ever will be but he was in the right spot at the right time this year. Had Edler not been hurt or had Durzi been in the Leafs development system, I don't think he's making the NHL for a while. And this is not to take anything away from the guy because he's done extremely well to do the exact thing they brought him up for and that was produce offense and move the puck. With the Leafs, however, similar to Duszak, we just don't give an inch to those types of players.

wdym by didn’t improve? y’all will say anything. His point totals went up every year he played in the OHL. He was injured the year we traded him and still killed it. I’m not sure where you’re seeing he didn’t improve. Nothing really based on anything concrete. He was never drafted to be a defensive stalwart. He’s an offensive defenseman with a decent stick. Was never a physical player. I’ve said it so many times, if you can skate and move the puck as a defenseman you’ve got a shot at getting NHL games, even if you’re lack lustre in your own end. If you’re able to get the puck out and advance it forward teams/coaches will value that.

no he wasn’t having a down year. You can go check his stats. He had 17 points in 18 games with Owen Sound got injured, traded by the leafs and then also by Owen sound to Guelph and then had 20 points in 18 games with Guelph. Then absolutely lit up the memorial cup and OHL playoffs. It was just he got injured that is all. But it’s not like he wasn’t progressing or hadn’t gotten better. He had two seasons with back to back injuries.

 

[nobody]

wdym by didn’t improve? y’all will say anything. His point totals went up every year he played in the OHL. He was injured the year we traded him and still killed it. I’m not sure where you’re seeing he didn’t improve. Nothing really based on anything concrete. He was never drafted to be a defensive stalwart. He’s an offensive defenseman with a decent stick. Was never a physical player. I’ve said it so many times, if you can skate and move the puck as a defenseman you’ve got a shot at getting NHL games, even if you’re lack lustre in your own end. If you’re able to get the puck out and advance it forward teams/coaches will value that.

I never said he didn't improve overall. I said he didn't improve his game until after we had traded him. I watched him that year and what I saw was an older player trying to take too big a bite than what he could handle. His offensive impact wasn't as good and defensively he was struggling. His season turned around with Guelph where he played on a pretty stacked team and second fiddle to Samorukov who also isn't much to write home about in the D-zone. He was drafted to become a 2-way player for us and he didn't have the skillset or the defensive smarts/strengths to be that type of a player for us. And before you say no or "nothing based on anything concrete", Timothy Liljegren was drafted as a pure offensive d-man and was touted as a top pick for 2 years prior to his draft year and we basically stripped him of his offensive game until he got the defensive side of the game down. I suspect if Durzi made it to the Marlies, he'd have a very similar fate. And if he wasn't able to adjust, he wouldn't be seeing NHL time. Just like Duszak isn't seeing NHL time while being one of the best Marlies players offensively. We're giving a shot to the Dahlstrom/Biegas of the world instead.

 

[francis246]

I never said he didn't improve overall. I said he didn't improve his game until after we had traded him. I watched him that year and what I saw was an older player trying to take too big a bite than what he could handle. His offensive impact wasn't as good and defensively he was struggling. His season turned around with Guelph where he played on a pretty stacked team and second fiddle to Samorukov who also isn't much to write home about in the D-zone. He was drafted to become a 2-way player for us and he didn't have the skillset or the defensive smarts/strengths to be that type of a player for us. And before you say no or "nothing based on anything concrete", Timothy Liljegren was drafted as a pure offensive d-man and was touted as a top pick for 2 years prior to his draft year and we basically stripped him of his offensive game until he got the defensive side of the game down. I suspect if Durzi made it to the Marlies, he'd have a very similar fate. And if he wasn't able to adjust, he wouldn't be seeing NHL time. Just like Duszak isn't seeing NHL time while being one of the best Marlies players offensively. We're giving a shot to the Dahlstrom/Biegas of the world instead.

1 point under a point per game isn’t a good offensive impact . Just to do my research, in case I may have been wrong. Did some quick searches for any articles or media releases from kings writers or leafs writers during the 18-19 season and even the 17-18 season to see if anyone substantiated the claim he took a step back at any point or was stalling in his D+1 year. Couldn’t find any, all there is to find is praise and how much he has improved, was even featured on NHL.com. Only thing mentioned was his start being derailed by a bad injury.

either way it was a good find by Dubas & co. He’s a good talent. They did a decent job at finding NHL quality defenseman in that little 2/3 year span. I don’t think it should really be a surprise Durzi made it.

 

[nobody]

1 point under a point per game isn’t a good offensive impact . Just to do my research, in case I may have been wrong. Did some quick searches for any articles or media releases from kings writers or leafs writers during the 18-19 season and even the 17-18 season to see if anyone substantiated the claim he took a step back at any point. Couldn’t find any, all there is to find is praise and how much he has improved, was even featured on NHL.com

20 year old Noel Hoffenmeyer in the OHL put up 26 goals 82 points in 56 games for a PPG of 1.41. 20 year old Mac Hollowell put up 24 goals 77 points in 64 games for a PPG of 1.20, the very same year that 20 year old Sean Durzi put up 11 goals 37 points in 35 games for a PPG of 1.06. Leafs have/had each one of these guys. I'm not saying that what Durzi did wasn't impressive or progression/growth, but it's not exactly earth-shattering considering a PPG of 1.23 in his draft year. So yes, 1.06 was a slight dip. Even if you include his playoffs and mem cup his overall production wasn't as good as his draft year with an arguably better team around him.

EDIT:
Long story short. Durzi is fantastic and I am really happy that he's doing wonderful but at the end of the day, I really don't feel like it's a loss for our organization because he isn't experiencing the same success with us as he is with LA and his ability to rise up as an NHL player bodes well for our scouts and Dubas. We need more players like him and we have more players like him coming up. They will all make excellent trading chips. It's a win/win situation for all.

 

[francis246]

20 year old Noel Hoffenmeyer in the OHL put up 26 goals 82 points in 56 games for a PPG of 1.41. 20 year old Mac Hollowell put up 24 goals 77 points in 64 games for a PPG of 1.20, the very same year that 20 year old Sean Durzi put up 11 goals 37 points in 35 games for a PPG of 1.06. Leafs have/had each one of these guys. I'm not saying that what Durzi did wasn't impressive or progression/growth, but it's not exactly earth-shattering considering a PPG of 1.23 in his draft year. So yes, 1.06 was a slight dip. Even if you include his playoffs and mem cup his overall production wasn't as good as his draft year with an arguably better team around him.

EDIT:
Long story short. Durzi is fantastic and I am really happy that he's doing wonderful but at the end of the day, I really don't feel like it's a loss for our organization because he isn't experiencing the same success with us as he is with LA and his ability to rise up as an NHL player bodes well for our scouts and Dubas. We need more players like him and we have more players like him coming up. They will all make excellent trading chips. It's a win/win situation for all.

that’s all I was saying man, Dubas was praised heavily at the time for the pick. All indications were he was tracking great through junior. I’m just saying maybe his totals were down for sure but there were underlying factors that affected that (missed almost half of a season). It wasn’t really a situation where he was a stalled defenseman like sticky made it out to seem. Is it really logical to assume after 18 games that he wasn’t progressing well? That’s a very small sample size to determine that. Many reporters in the analytics crowd and outside of the analytics crowd were high on the kid. And all reports show that LA really wanted him and were high on him. So it’s a good look at the end of the day for our scouting department if any guy makes it.

 

[X66]

Duszak is most definitely going to make the NHL, just probably not with the leafs.

He’s had a monster final year in the NCAA, a monster final year in the ECHL, and now a monster year in the AHL.

He plays the modern game, and I can see him cracking rosters around the league.

 

[Twine Tickler]

It’s also a waste he, a guy who can pk and play 5v5, couldn’t make an international team where half their forwards couldn’t even put up a ppg as a d+2 and even if they decided to go a full skill lineup, he would still be one of their most skilled players.

I’m never going to stop beating this dead horse.

sibirskie snaipery’s leading scorer has 25 points in 35 games.

It really is hard to get excited about Ovchinikov at this point. I love the talent level, and in other circumstances I believe he would be generating far more buzz around here than he currently is. I genuinely believe there is a better developmental path for him elsewhere, but that's just how things tend to shake out in Russia unfortunately.

I'm just happy he's playing games at this point. Practice is the basis of Russian hockey allegedly, but there is absolutely nothing like competing in games. Even if it's at a level where he statistically dominates.

As much as I'd love for him to come over to NA next year, I just don't see it happening. The good news is we own his rights indefinitely I believe. So this really could be a long term play with him. Sibir can bury him in the MHL now, but at some point one would think he would get an opportunity to showcase his abilities at a higher level. One can hope at least

 

[Fogelhund]

Roberston began skating on January 7th with the Marlies. We haven't heard much since then. I wonder when he might be ready to play?

 

[Fogelhund]

It really is hard to get excited about Ovchinikov at this point. I love the talent level, and in other circumstances I believe he would be generating far more buzz around here than he currently is. I genuinely believe there is a better developmental path for him elsewhere, but that's just how things tend to shake out in Russia unfortunately.

I'm just happy he's playing games at this point. Practice is the basis of Russian hockey allegedly, but there is absolutely nothing like competing in games. Even if it's at a level where he statistically dominates.

As much as I'd love for him to come over to NA next year, I just don't see it happening. The good news is we own his rights indefinitely I believe. So this really could be a long term play with him. Sibir can bury him in the MHL now, but at some point one would think he would get an opportunity to showcase his abilities at a higher level. One can hope at least

Late round pick anyway. One of those players you forget about, check on in a few years, and either it worked out, or didn't.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Late round pick anyway. One of those players you forget about, check on in a few years, and either it worked out, or didn't.

Ya for sure, I also think prospects drafted out of the KHL/VHL/MHL are Leaf property indefinitely correct? I think this is the only arrangement in the world like this because of the lack of a transfer agreement between the NHL and those leagues.

If so, it could take another 4 years for Sibir to use him appropriately and if he develops to be as dominating in the KHL as he is in the MHL, we'd still have a phenomenal player coming over at age 23-24.

That obviously all hinges on Dmitry becoming that phenomenal player, but he really does have a very strong skillset IMO. I would not be surprised to see him put up respectable Pt totals right away if given more than 5mins TOI at the KHL level.

 

[hockeynorth]

anyone think one of Knies/Amirov/Robertson get NHL games this year?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

anyone think one of Knies/Amirov/Robertson get NHL games this year?

Definitely not Knies. Maybe Amirov or Robertson near the end of the year, but I don't think they will force it. If an injury comes up, maybe they get a shot before a guy like Anderson (and certainly before Clifford).

 

[Fogelhund]

anyone think one of Knies/Amirov/Robertson get NHL games this year?

Amirov's team is tops in their division. Chances are they will be in the playoffs, do they'd need to get eliminated pretty early to come over.

 

[kk87]

After seeing some posters do some rankings, I wanted in. Rather than pure ranks or depth charts, I decide to do tiers. Did not include goalies.


Tier 1: The top prospects

Rodion Amirov, Matthew Knies, Topi Niemela, Nick Robertson

Tier 2: The next tier

Mikhail Abramov, Nick Abruzzese, Roni Hirvonen, Pontus Holmberg

Safe Tier: These guys may all make it with a higher floor, but potential is likely capped

Joey Anderson, Mikko Kokkonen Filip Kral, Kristians Rubins, Alex Steeves

Tier 4: These two were tough to place in a tier. They've had a great year and there seems to be potential with both, but will need to continue their upward trend.

Ryan Tverberg, Ty Voit

Tier 5: These players each have some interesting potential attached to them, but have a lot to do if they want to make the NHL

SDA, Curtis Douglas, Michael Koster, Vietti Miettenen, Joe Miller, Dmitry Ovchnnikov. William Villeneuve


Didn't think there was really anyone else of note after these guys.

Pretty solid list, nicely done. Personally I might have Steeves and Kokkonen in tier 2, since I think they both have a good shot to become NHL regulars - and I'd say SDA and Miettinen have both come on strong enough to warrant a spot in tier 4.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Pretty solid list, nicely done. Personally I might have Steeves and Kokkonen in tier 2, since I think they both have a good shot to become NHL regulars - and I'd say SDA and Miettinen have both come on strong enough to warrant a spot in tier 4.

Kral too... I mean they are all younger than Abruzzese and Holmberg. Why is their potential capped and not Abruzzese/Holmberg?

 

[Fogelhund]

Roberston began skating on January 7th with the Marlies. We haven't heard much since then. I wonder when he might be ready to play?

 

[keonsbitterness]

anyone think one of Knies/Amirov/Robertson get NHL games this year?

No, no, and likely no.

 

[SprDaVE]

anyone think one of Knies/Amirov/Robertson get NHL games this year?

Robertson is a long shot depending on injuries and his recovery. But could be an option if injuries happen and and he's ready to go.

Amirov and Knies are at ~1% chance. Knies could sneak in at the end of the year if he signs his ELC. Amirov could be in the same boat in his KHL season is over.

 

[Canada4Gold]

The 1 thing that gives me hope with Ovchinnikov is that Dubas traded up to get him. He's been so good at identifying talent but trades back so much he must have loved something he saw with him to trade up. Something he almost never does. The only other 2 I can recall are trading next years picks to get another pick in the current year to get Holmberg and Tverberg. Both of those are looking excellent right now.

Until Ovchinnikov starts to disappoint with ice time he gets he'll always be a question mark that has that thought that Dubas traded up for him to me. As of now he's just a guy who's crushed the VHL* who hasn't really gotten the chance to do more. A question mark.

* = MHL, I can never get those 2 Russian leagues straight in my head

 

[Twine Tickler]

The 1 thing that gives me hope with Ovchinnikov is that Dubas traded up to get him. He's been so good at identifying talent but trades back so much he must have loved something he saw with him to trade up. Something he almost never does. The only other 2 I can recall are trading next years picks to get another pick in the current year to get Holmberg and Tverberg. Both of those are looking excellent right now.

Until Ovchinnikov starts to disappoint with ice time he gets he'll always be a question mark that has that thought that Dubas traded up for him to me. As of now he's just a guy who's crushed the VHL who hasn't really gotten the chance to do more. A question mark.

The only players Kyle Dubas has traded up for to draft have been Holmberg, Tverberg, and Ovchinikov.

So I'd say you're probably right in thinking there is something clearly there with this kid. If anything you'd have to think Kyle and company have very keen eyes on him at the very least. I don't think they will allow for the set and forget slow cooker approach forever. If this development path continues this way for another 2 years, I'd imagine Kyle will try and intervene. That is if Kyle is still in charge in 2 years of course (hopefully).

Dmitry has game breaking shit at the MHL level. Would love to see him get a different opportunity either in NA or another pro league.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Has anyone watched Miettinen this year? Haven't seen him get talked about much and he has a slightly better year so far with a .8ppg compared to .77 last season.

 

[4thline]

Has anyone watched Miettinen this year? Haven't seen him get talked about much and he has a slightly better year so far with a .8ppg compared to .77 last season.

Haven't watched, but statwise looks like a tale of two seasons. 8 points (4+4) in the 6 games since the start of December, 8 points in the 14 games before hand

 

[aingefan]

Haven't watched, but statwise looks like a tale of two seasons. 8 points (4+4) in the 6 games since the start of December, 8 points in the 14 games before hand

Yeah, seems he’s been coming on after a slow start. I haven’t watched him either, but I recall reports here about how St.Cloud was running three balanced lines to start the year.
Might have affected toi, quality of line mates.
Hoping for a strong finish.
Alternately, Ryan Tverberg seems to be sputtering abit with 3 pts in his last 10 games.

 

[VanW27]

Haven't watched, but statwise looks like a tale of two seasons. 8 points (4+4) in the 6 games since the start of December, 8 points in the 14 games before hand

He's really going to need to turn it up if he's going to be considered a legitimate prospect.

Compare his NCAA career to another undersized scorer, he's the same age as Caufield.

Caufield:
18YO - 36GP, 19G, 36pts
19YO - 31GP, 30G, 52pts
20YO - Pro

Miettinen:
18YO - Finish Junior League
19YO - 31GP, 11G, 24pts
20YO - 20GP, 7G, 16pts

I know it's a harsh comparison but the reality is for a guy his size he really needs to show he can dominate at that level. Hopefully he can finish the year strong and take a big nice step forward next season. The good thing is he's got some time as an NCAA player, develop his game over the next 2 seasons and see if there's enough there to earn an ELC.

 

[Twine Tickler]

He's really going to need to turn it up if he's going to be considered a legitimate prospect.

Compare his NCAA career to another undersized scorer, he's the same age as Caufield.

Caufield:
18YO - 36GP, 19G, 36pts
19YO - 31GP, 30G, 52pts
20YO - Pro

Miettinen:
18YO - Finish Junior League
19YO - 31GP, 11G, 24pts
20YO - 20GP, 7G, 16pts

I know it's a harsh comparison but the reality is for a guy his size he really needs to show he can dominate at that level. Hopefully he can finish the year strong and take a big nice step forward next season. The good thing is he's got some time as an NCAA player, develop his game over the next 2 seasons and see if there's enough there to earn an ELC.

The only thing is Veeti is being boxed out by guys in their mid 20's. St Cloud State is a veteran laden team. I am not sure Veeti is going to get a real opportunity to showcase his shit until potentially next year.

I've not watched him this year, but from the times I have seen him play this kid has an absolute missile off his blade. I know he took an abnormal approach to his development from Finnish standards to allow him to have NCAA eligibility. My assumption is education was a huge reason he did what he did. Even if he does light up his junior year with the current senior class moving on, and we end up wanting to sign him to an ELC I think there is definitely a chance he wants to go back as a senior the following year. That's not to say he won't sign with us after his senior year, but he would be free to explore other options at that point as well.

I still think he has a shot to play in the NHL, but you're right, he will soon have to shit or get off the potty to some degree.