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Prospect Info: Marlies & Prospect Discussion

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baton elevated said:
Once JT comes off the books Tre can go hunting for bear. We can add 2 decent players for $11M
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McCabe, Lilly, Benoit, Woll, and Knies, will be in new deals and that is when Marner's begins. That's probably close to $11M right there.

Add that to JTs replacement who will eat up whatever cap growth there is and nothing much left for any bears. Maybe in 26-27 if the cap takes a real leap but big game hunting is for clubs with value deals on the books. More like 27-28 to celebrate the last season of Matty. Brodie's replacement will probably be done so that $5M plus cap growth and they can add the $11M guy(s).
 
nuck said:
McCabe, Lilly, Benoit, Woll, and Knies, will be in new deals and that is when Marner's begins. That's probably close to $11M right there.

Add that to JTs replacement who will eat up whatever cap growth there is and nothing much left for any bears. Maybe in 26-27 if the cap takes a real leap but big game hunting is for clubs with value deals on the books. More like 27-28 to celebrate the last season of Matty. Brodie's replacement will probably be done so that $5M plus cap growth and they can add the $11M guy(s).
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Really? How do the increases those guys get eat $11M. McCabe might be $1M above what we are paying him now, Lilly might be $1.5M, Benoit $500K, Will and Knows maybe million dollars more each. That's $5M...plus the cap goes up another $4M or $5M after it goes up $4M this year.

I have run the two year from now cap situation a few times. We are not in trouble and will have money to spend.
 
conFABulator said:
Really? How do the increases those guys get eat $11M. McCabe might be $1M above what we are paying him now, Lilly might be $1.5M, Benoit $500K, Will and Knows maybe million dollars more each. That's $5M...plus the cap goes up another $4M or $5M after it goes up $4M this year.

I have run the two year from now cap situation a few times. We are not in trouble and will have money to spend.
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So McCabe is 4M currently, only Chicago is retaining 50%


I suspect McCabe should be able to get another 4M deal for a 2-3 years

Liljegren, depends on term, I would go medium term, I have projected 2.75M x 4 years

Benoit you have listed at 500k - that is less than 775k league minimum he gets now, I have projected 950-975k x 2

Woll is tough - need another year on Knies

Knies - depends on term, I'd go 4.5M x 8 years right now to try to get a bargain by year 3, similar to how Farabee got term early. If you go 1-2 year extension, shouldn't be more then 1.5-2.5M
 
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WTFMAN99 said:
So McCabe is 4M currently, only Chicago is retaining 50%


I suspect McCabe should be able to get another 4M deal for a 2-3 years

Liljegren, depends on term, I would go medium term, I have projected 2.75M x 4 years

Benoit you have listed at 500k - that is less than 775k league minimum he gets now, I have projected 950-975k x 2

Woll is tough - need another year on Knies

Knies - depends on term, I'd go 4.5M x 8 years right now to try to get a bargain by year 3, similar to how Farabee got term early. If you go 1-2 year extension, shouldn't be more then 1.5-2.5M
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If McCabe takes another $4M deal thats effectively a pay cut between inflation and the cap increase of close to $10M between deals. If they sign long term maybe he takes $4.5 but I think closer to $5M.

Benoit will be arb eligible and will have 280+ games under his belt. Lilly signed for $1.4M with no arb rights and under 70 games played. Again close to a $10M jump in the cap between Lillys deal and Benoit's next. Look at the minutes he is getting. Assuming he doesn't regress he will cost them $2M per.

I think Knies maybe $2.3M using a player like Chytel as a comp. Close to $3M if he shreds it but you can't assume that.

Sammy got $3.55M in arbitration after 1 good season. Woll will have arb rights and assuming he is their starter, why would he cost any less? Of course they will have Sammy gone and probably Hildeby or some kind of $1Mish vet so it could be close to a wash in net. I don't think you can assume respectable backup goaltending below $1M though so still being a little optimistic, maybe another $500k for the tandem.

Lilly could be $2.75 per or certainly the guy replacing him would be

So my math says maybe $8Mish for that group. Add $1M for Mitch's raise is $9M.

I have no idea who replaces Brodie as top RD for the next couple of years. I don't think any of the guys they have are guaranteed fit that spot, that why they are looking now. Can we assume $5M just because we don't know so that has no inflationary affect on the team?

$9M + optimistically $4.5 for JTs replacement is $13.5M so they are -$2.5M in the hole. Willie has eaten the 24-25 cap growth so with another $5M in 25-26 they appear to have $2.5M left over.

But they don't really have a 3rd pair because no club is paying their RD $5M + $5M + $2.75M. They need that 3rd pair $1-$1.5 RD and either Lilly or McCabe need to be the top pair RD or be traded for a top pair RD. Thats where the math balances and the money to improve is found. If they spend $6.75M on their #1 RD that allows an improvement and have a $1M hammer on the bottom pair like most clubs.
 
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nuck said:
If McCabe takes another $4M deal thats effectively a pay cut between inflation and the cap increase of close to $10M between deals. If they sign long term maybe he takes $4.5 but I think closer to $5M.

Benoit will be arb eligible and will have 280+ games under his belt. Lilly signed for $1.4M with no arb rights and under 70 games played. Again close to a $10M jump in the cap between Lillys deal and Benoit's next. Look at the minutes he is getting. Assuming he doesn't regress he will cost them $2M per.

I think Knies maybe $2.3M Musing a player like Chytel as a comp. Close to $3M if he shreds it but you can't assume that.

Sammy got $3.55M in arbitration after 1 good season. Woll will have arb rights and assuming he is their starter, why would he cost any less? Of course they will have Sammy gone and probably Hildeby or some kind of $1Mish vet so it could be close to a wash in net. I don't think you can assume respectable backup goaltending below $1M though so still be a little optimistic maybe another $500k for the tandem.

Lilly could be $2.75 per or certainly the guy replacing him would be

So my math says maybe $8M for that group. Add $1M for Mitch's raise is $9M.

I have no idea who replaces Brodie as top RD for the next couple of years. I don't think any of the guys they have are guaranteed fit that spot, that why they are looking now. Can we assume $5M just because we don't know so that has no inflationary affect on the team?

$9M + optimistically $4.5 for JTs replacement is $13.5M so they are -$2.5M in the hole. Willie has eaten the 24-25 cap growth so with another $5M in 25-26 they appear to have $2.5M left over.

But they don't really have a 3rd pair because no club is paying their RD $5M + $5M + $2.9M. They need that 3rd pair $1-$1.5 RD and either Lilly or McCabe need to be the top pair RD or be traded for a top pair RD. thats where the math balances and the money to improve is found
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McCabe is going to be 31-32 for the next contract, doesn't produce much, maybe he does hit 5M, hard to say.

Benoit is RFA this summer and will have 205 games played I believe, I think my contract estimate is more accurate, he doesn't have enough production to drive it forward.

Knies is tough to gauge - term is gonna be big.

Samsonov/Woll/goalies - no idea why.

Liljegren making 1.4 going to 2.75M without much offensive output seems possible.

Marner raise...yeah maybe it's 1M - no idea, no one has even really caught up to his current deal as a winger.
 
WTFMAN99 said:
McCabe is going to be 31-32 for the next contract, doesn't produce much, maybe he does hit 5M, hard to say.

Benoit is RFA this summer and will have 205 games played I believe, I think my contract estimate is more accurate, he doesn't have enough production to drive it forward.

Knies is tough to gauge - term is gonna be big.

Samsonov/Woll/goalies - no idea why.

Liljegren making 1.4 going to 2.75M without much offensive output seems possible.

Marner raise...yeah maybe it's 1M - no idea, no one has even really caught up to his current deal as a winger.
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Willie has reset the bar. Mitch has outperformed him their whole career and he is only 9pts back after a horrible start to his season. We know the club doesn't play hardball so the only way he's not making $11.5M is if he is traded. Yeah I wasn't thinking about the Benoit extension this summer, but at the end of his current deal which is what he would bring to arbitration. I don't see his incentive to take a $1M deal to extend, it isn't like he's barely getting in the lineup. We'll see. If they double his salary he'll probably take the security. If they want to play him 20:00 a night and pay him $1M I could see him resisting that. Either way he looks like a bargain.
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nuck said:
Willie has reset the bar. Mitch has outperformed him their whole career and he is only 9pts back after a horrible start to his season. We know the club doesn't play hardball so the only way he's not making $11.5M is if he is traded. Yeah I wasn't thinking about the Benoit extension this summer, but at the end of his current deal which is what he would bring to arbitration. I don't see his incentive to take a $1M deal to extend, it isn't like he's barely getting in the lineup. We'll see. If they double his salary he'll probably take the security. If they want to play him 20:00 a night and pay him $1M I could see him resisting that. Either way he looks like a bargain.
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Benoit has to extend this summer, he's RFA upon this season ending.

In terms of Marner, I suspect 11.75 to 12M is as high as they're going, so yea, 1M buffer.
 
WTFMAN99 said:
So McCabe is 4M currently, only Chicago is retaining 50%


I suspect McCabe should be able to get another 4M deal for a 2-3 years

Liljegren, depends on term, I would go medium term, I have projected 2.75M x 4 years

Benoit you have listed at 500k - that is less than 775k league minimum he gets now, I have projected 950-975k x 2

Woll is tough - need another year on Knies

Knies - depends on term, I'd go 4.5M x 8 years right now to try to get a bargain by year 3, similar to how Farabee got term early. If you go 1-2 year extension, shouldn't be more then 1.5-2.5M
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The amounts I listened were the increases each player would get on their next deals on top of what they are currently making...we only need to account for the increases in th Tavares cap-save. So, I have

McCabe @ $3M ($1M increase)
Liljegren @ $2.9M ($1.5M increase)
Benoit @ $1.25M ($500K increase)
I have Knies and Woll along bridge deals at $1M increases each.

I would add that Marner gets a $1.5M increase. The Tavares save will pay for Tavares new deal and all of these increases. Cap increases and Brodie, Samsonov, Jarnkrok, and Kampf going UFA or getting traded and replaced by league minimum guys like Niemela, Hildeby, Minten and Cowan is how we have money to add a top 4 D or two in free agency over the next couple of years.
 
conFABulator said:
The amounts I listened were the increases each player would get on their next deals on top of what they are currently making...we only need to account for the increases in th Tavares cap-save. So, I have

McCabe @ $3M ($1M increase)
Liljegren @ $2.9M ($1.5M increase)
Benoit @ $1.25M ($500K increase)
I have Knies and Woll along bridge deals at $1M increases each.

I would add that Marner gets a $1.5M increase. The Tavares save will pay for Tavares new deal and all of these increases. Cap increases and Brodie, Samsonov, Jarnkrok, and Kampf going UFA or getting traded and replaced by league minimum guys like Niemela, Hildeby, Minten and Cowan is how we have money to add a top 4 D or two in free agency over the next couple of years.
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One correction - McCabe is actually making $4 million, but because Chicago retained 50%, he's only costing the Leafs 2.

BertCorbeau said:
With Matthews making north of $13, Marner starts with a $12…

Probably $12.5 when all is said and done.
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I can't see them paying Marner a cent more than Nylander is making. No other team would even offer him that much.
 
Thornbury said:
One correction - McCabe is actually making $4 million, but because Chicago retained 50%, he's only costing the Leafs 2.


I can't see them paying Marner a cent more than Nylander is making. No other team would even offer him that much.
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I guess I am not being clear in my wording.

McCabe is currently getting paid $2M by the Leafs I am projecting we get him for $3M which is a $1M increase in our payroll.

Marner will get a similar percentage of the cap as Nylander, that will amount to l mor money. He will slot in between Nylander and Matthews IMO.
 
Dekes For Days said:
We have other D prospects than just Niemela. Niemela is just the most likely to make it.
Our D signed/controlled beyond this year - Rielly, McCabe, Liljegren, Benoit, and Timmins - are all age 24-30. That's not old.
By the logic that Chadwick is too young to matter, then I'm not sure how an even younger D drafted next draft would matter.
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I'm saying I don't know about Chadwick. Is he top 3 material? We will lose Gio, Brodie and perhaps Timmins. If we lose first round do want to lose out on that pick? Last year we dumped Sandin for Cowan luckily. With our cap it would be wise to stacking young and cheap guys, especially good dmen. Don't forget you can always trade up into that top 20 if a stud drops.
 
conFABulator said:
I guess I am not being clear in my wording.

McCabe is currently getting paid $2M by the Leafs I am projecting we get him for $3M which is a $1M increase in our payroll.

Marner will get a similar percentage of the cap as Nylander, that will amount to l mor money. He will slot in between Nylander and Matthews IMO.
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I never thought I'd say this but it is a prospect thread. I come here for that. Not updates on the potential cap situation in a year or two. Thanks.
 
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Leafs1991 said:
I never thought I'd say this but it is a prospect thread. I come here for that. Not updates on the potential cap situation in a year or two. Thanks.
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Ok, I think how many prospects we can graduate to the NHL over the next couple of years is key to our success in hard-cap league.

Also, I was responding to someone who late that brought this topic up in this thread. But I get it. Prospects it is...

Which ones do you think we should expect to actually be in the line up in two years? We will already have young guys in the line-up in Knies, Woll, Holmberg, and Robertson. Do we think Minten is makes the jump? Cowan? Niemela? Hildeby? Tverberg? Grebonkin? Hirvonen? I think they all COULD be on the big club, but there is no way they ALL can be. If most of them do make it then we do have of cap space all of a sudden.
 
conFABulator said:
Ok, I think how many prospects we can graduate to the NHL over the next couple of years is key to our success in hard-cap league.

Also, I was responding to someone who late that brought this topic up in this thread. But I get it. Prospects it is...

Which ones do you think we should expect to actually be in the line up in two years? We will already have young guys in the line-up in Knies, Woll, Holmberg, and Robertson. Do we think Minten is makes the jump? Cowan? Niemela? Hildeby? Tverberg? Grebonkin? Hirvonen? I think they all COULD be on the big club, but there is no way they ALL can be. If most of them do make it then we do have of cap space all of a sudden.
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Having watched over the years, some of those maybe NHL ers Leivo, Verhaege for example but not with us.Who will make it the next two years? Minten will take a 3c. Cowan will be in. Hildeby will backup,Niemela next year 3rd pairing,Tverberg 2 years. The others are doubtful unless traded. Expect 5 to play in the next 2 years. Our pool looks good at the top but then drops off.
 
darrylsittler27 said:
Having watched over the years, some of those maybe NHL ers Leivo, Verhaege for example but not with us.Who will make it the next two years? Minten will take a 3c. Cowan will be in. Hildeby will backup,Niemela next year 3rd pairing,Tverberg 2 years. The others are doubtful unless traded. Expect 5 to play in the next 2 years. Our pool looks good at the top but then drops off.
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Thanks. I think that's around the number I see too. That's five guys, plus the four youngish guys already up. That's nine fairly inexpensive contributors. Add them to our core five and that's 14 roster spots and lots of cap space to add talent around them. This is a much better position we have been in in years. Graduating prospects is key to this team's near term success.
 
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conFABulator said:
Thanks. I think that's around the number I see too. That's five guys, plus the four youngish guys already up. That's nine fairly inexpensive contributors. Add them to our core five and that's 14 roster spots and lots of cap space to add talent around them. This is a much better position we have been in in years. Graduating prospects is key to this team's near term success.
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Exactly and why we need that first if we tank again. I see next year as our year but no high picks to use at TD either. Ufas in the summer and young and cheap.
 
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