Player Discussion: Mark S Discussion

Here is the Jets F goal/scoring rates per 60 (all situations) in playoffs, since 2018.

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I don't think anyone is doubting Scheifele's offensive prowess. Many are disappointed at other aspects of his game, but mostly that he has not, for a variety of reasons, been able to be a true leader, on and off the ice. Expectations to that effect were sky high and now lots of people are disappointed, perhaps none more so than Scheifele.

Those players are rare as hen's teeth and hopefully we have drafted a couple these past two years.
 
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If 55 put in as much effort in both ends of the ice he'd be way more revered. Fans here aren't stupid they see the lack of effort on D. Hence the frustration. He could be a top player in this league if he did.

I don't get it, how does a supposed hockey nerd not get this ?
 
Thanks for the numbers.

You may have missed the memo that Ehlers is a soft, broken diva of a player who fails to show up in important games and lacks clutchiness like no other Jet.

It would def be interesting to look further into "clutchiness" -- it's a longstanding narrative in sports, and I wonder if its borne out by facts ("important" games grather than Tuesday night in January specials) and how it lines up with the larger patterns you ID (those who score the most goals also score the most GWGS) and those ID by fans and media (the Tkachuk Factor). Looks like the Jets are now drafting for clutchiness in Rutger Mac and Barlow, etc. Should they just be drafting for scoriness?
I think the stats folks would say those "clutch" goals are primarily a function of the best players being out there more when you need a goal...especially on powerplays and with the goalie pulled.

And also, as was mentioned, the 2nd goal in a 5-1 win is not really "clutch" and those are all counted in GWGs.
 
No doubt Scheifele is a very consistent point producer. Many seasons of 1.0 points / game and last year he trailed off slightly but did put up the big 42 goals.
At the end of the day I don't mind Scheifele being here long term but I think it's an illusion to think he is good enough to lead this team to the "promised land". I think you would need him playing as a second line center if you wanted to even have a sniff at Lord Stanley.
There are teams now that I don't think want to sign 30 year old players to 8 year contracts. Perhaps there is a team that would sign Scheifele to such a deal but I don't think it's going to be us. But I would certainly consider 4-5 years at 8-9 million as I think that is the maximum time frame before he begins to decline.
 
from what i calculated

when tied or down-1 (regular season/all-strengths) scheifele has 21 goals. the league leader is McDavid at 31, then Pasta at 30. 6 goals separate Point at #3 to Scheifele/Karlsson/Tkahuck/Crosby at a tie starting at 17th

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Thanks. That's a much better indicator of clutchness (clutchosity?) IMO. And he does fare quite well in that regard, although as @Gm0ney pointed out, being given more opportunities to score those clutch goals has to be factored in.
 
Thanks. That's a much better indicator of clutchness (clutchosity?) IMO. And he does fare quite well in that regard, although as @Gm0ney pointed out, being given more opportunities to score those clutch goals has to be factored in.
it would be better if they had it available to filter it down to period 1-3, or TOI remaining in the game as well. think you could specify it down to extremely critical/high stakes moments. when tied would include when the game starts and is 0-0... but i suppose scoring the 1st goal can be considered clutch, :dunno:

anyway, goals-scoring matters and - as of today - i am not convinced that moving scheifele or "getting rid of him" makes us better

Just checking the numbers and - you're never going to believe this - the guys who score the most goals, also score the most GWGs! :sarcasm:

Top 5 goalscorers on the Jets for the past 5 seasons, in descending order:
Connor, Scheifele, Ehlers, Wheeler, Laine

Top 5 GWG on the Jets for the past 5 seasons, in descending order:
Connor, Scheifele, Ehlers, Wheeler, Laine

Aside: It's impressive that Ehlers managed that without much time on PP1 and getting only 16:30 TOI per game (as opposed to Scheifele who averages 21:11 TOI and being a shooter on PP1 the entire 5 year period).

you're surprised by ehlers... how about the fact laine has only played in 2 of those 5 seasons for the Jets and is still top-5. LOL
 
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The other way at looking at it ... if Schiefele had a better defence he would have more goals and points. Face it the Jets are a better team with #55 in the lineup.
McDavid had ZERO goals and minus 3 against the Jets in 3 games this past season ... I guess that means McDavid is not a very good defensive player do the Oilers trade him?
 
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Most of the top offensive players in the league are not great defensively. They just need good two way players with them. The Jets have that now
Perhaps, we have to see how their games translate to the systems the Jets employ over the course of a full season. Also, having the players is not a guarantee our coach will line up those players where needed most. I would put money on Connor and Scheifele being on the same line a lot.
 
Most of the top offensive players in the league are not great defensively. They just need good two way players with them. The Jets have that now
The best players (maybe McDavid and Draisatl aside) make an effort on D.
 
If 55 put in as much effort in both ends of the ice he'd be way more revered. Fans here aren't stupid they see the lack of effort on D. Hence the frustration. He could be a top player in this league if he did.

I don't get it, how does a supposed hockey nerd not get this ?

That's what I have been asking myself for years.
 
kuHLmAn -- it's in the name.

Yep. Apples on the 4th means someone better on the 3rd. It's the all-new 2023-24 Jets Reverse Trickle Effect!

I wonder where Kups and The Red Barron slot in here -- gonna be a dogfight for those hopefuls who are looking to play as wingmen for Permanent 3rd line C Lowry.
Throw in Perfetan the 2 new ex-Kings and Flowbee and some guys gonna get pushed down, sure we lost Big Swede Stunned-land but still have Big Finn and lots of other junk!
 
Mark’s main challenge is he will be turning 32 in March of the first year of his next contract. How many times do we need to see this movie, it never ends well. We are not a contender, nor are we trying to squeeze out one last cup run with our aging stars.

My guess is Chipman would do the big “retirement contract”. Chevy Bones and the hockey ops people I really have no idea what they are thinking but it’s been reported Mark is being shopped. That leads me to believe Scheifele probably wants a fresh start but his team is being very good about being quiet on this.

Nothing would surprise me here.
 
That's what I have been asking myself for years.

Same here. Some have speculated it could strategic - making sure he cashes in the next deal. (And he feels putting up points at all costs is whet he needs to do). Another one is he feels going all offensive makes him closer compared to the "super elite": players. Who knows.

It could be he's a hockey nerd but has a selfish streak too. I have gotten the feeling he hasn'texactly been popular amoung his peers.
 
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Mark’s main challenge is he will be turning 32 in March of the first year of his next contract. How many times do we need to see this movie, it never ends well. We are not a contender, nor are we trying to squeeze out one last cup run with our aging stars.

My guess is Chipman would do the big “retirement contract”. Chevy Bones and the hockey ops people I really have no idea what they are thinking but it’s been reported Mark is being shopped. That leads me to believe Scheifele probably wants a fresh start but his team is being very good about being quiet on this.

Nothing would surprise me here.
Like I had posted many moons ago, hopefully Scheifele takes the decision out of TNSE’s hands.
 
To me 55 to Boston makes the most sense. Looking at what they have to give up though, really only Swayman makes sense now that trade protection has kicked in for Carlo. Another small winger in Lysel or a LHD in Lohrei or Gryz don’t really make sense.

But we need to figure out Helle’s situation before a Swayman return makes sense to us.

The thing is at this point unless there is an arbitration award that surprises someone, there really isn’t that much urgency.

In fact we may want to see if we can go long with Villardi before committing that capspace in a retained trade or to the acquisition of a more expensive player.

I do wonder if it doesn’t make the most sense to start the year with 55 playing on the wing to see if Perfetti and/or Villardi can handle the move to the middle in a top 6 capacity and give a Lucius/Lambert 20 games in the A to go point per game warranting a call up. See if Kupari or maybe even Baron might be too 6 C options. If they all flame out maybe keeping 55 around starts looking like a necessity. Maybe if teams get off to bad starts the offers increase?

Will be interesting to see how it plays out as arbitration hearings get closer.
 
As I've noted before, the main problem with Scheifele is when he plays with Connor. They both gamble for offense, and Connor's very weak D zone puck management and zone exits bite the duo hard when they are looking for transition offense.

Play Scheifele with good defensive wingers and his impact will be better. Play Connor with a more defensive C and his weakness won't be exposed as much.

The addition of Vilardi, Niederreiter and Iafallo gives the Jets better defensive F options. Perfetti is also decent defensively. So, I think the Jets defense will improve.

Regardless, the Jets overall defensive proficiency 5v5 was actually very good last season down the stretch (their problem was scoring and the PP).

From Feb 1 to the end of the season, the Jets were 7th best in the NHL in 5v5 xGA/60. Many fans and pundits ignored the Jets strong underlying numbers down the stretch because the Jets were in a scoring slump with a bit of goaltending issues.
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The decline in xGA/60 in the final 20-30 games (red line in top graph below) was very impressive, and the Jets headed into the playoffs on a shot metrics heater, as one of the stingiest teams defensively 5v5.

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