Management Threads | Structure. Standards. Habits.

[EverTheCynic]

I don't really get your obsession with the comparison to Horvat. Bo is gone.

Im talking to someone who said something. There is context. Im not just shouting out into the air.

 

[bossram]

Im talking to someone who said something. There is context. Im not just shouting out into the air.

Not really true. You were talking to @PuckMunchkin about Miller and whether he's worth it, but you brought up Horvat unprompted. And continued to make it almost entirely about the defensive prowess of Horvat vs. Miller.

 

[sting101]

5v5 200ft Horvat and Miller are pretty damn close.

Horvat had been a more reliable defender as he usually gave a good 2 way effort and had no issues playing the match up game and tough minutes to close games out either. His quickness and agility left him some disappointing looks defensively but not for lack of effort and his size/strength usually had him winning 50/50 battles.

Miller while having a better first step and agility to handle the cycle better does not have as good a effort level and/or conditioning which has some similar if not almost worse looking moments.

It's mostly overblown to fit some kind of narrative though because when engaged in important games both are excellent playoff style bulls and it's not like either wont be on their toes if that was the scenario.

I fully stand by my observations of Horvat just completely saying xxxx it this year and cheating all over the ice for his UFA contract which as the captain looked bad but it also comes back to management when they decided to choose Miller so there is 2 sides to that dysfunction and i wouldn't take any shots at Horvat if he didnt say that stupid crap about us fans who supported him.

No doubt over the offensive blueline Miller is a better player and it's his playmaking and hands that sets him into a tier above Bo. And guess what you pay for production so Miller's deal is vastly better from that perspective unless Horvat retains the uptick which is already looking doubtful once he had to reign it in and start being accounted for within the Islanders system.

Both are bad contracts if you're not in a competitive window though. Horvat i believe will age worse with his skating and talent level but he's a couple years younger. In no world should he be making 8.5 for 65pts lol. At least Miller is full value scoring wise for the next few yrs you would think

 

[Peen]

5v5 200ft Horvat and Miller are pretty damn close.

Horvat had been a more reliable defender as he usually gave a good 2 way effort and had no issues playing the match up game and tough minutes to close games out either. His quickness and agility left him some disappointing looks defensively but not for lack of effort and his size/strength usually had him winning 50/50 battles.

Miller while having a better first step and agility to handle the cycle better does not have as good a effort level and/or conditioning which has some similar if not almost worse looking moments.

It's mostly overblown to fit some kind of narrative though because when engaged in important games both are excellent playoff style bulls and it's not like either wont be on their toes if that was the scenario.

I fully stand by my observations of Horvat just completely saying xxxx it this year and cheating all over the ice for his UFA contract which as the captain looked bad but it also comes back to management when they decided to choose Miller so there is 2 sides to that dysfunction and i wouldn't take any shots at Horvat if he didnt say that stupid crap about us fans who supported him.

No doubt over the offensive blueline Miller is a better player and it's his playmaking and hands that sets him into a tier above Bo. And guess what you pay for production so Miller's deal is vastly better from that perspective unless Horvat retains the uptick which is already looking doubtful once he had to reign it in and start being accounted for within the Islanders system.

Both are bad contracts if you're not in a competitive window though. Horvat i believe will age worse with his skating and talent level but he's a couple years younger. In no world should he be making 8.5 for 65pts lol. At least Miller is full value scoring wise for the next few yrs you would think

Totally agree. Except, I would rather have Miller’s contract than Bo’s. I’ve always said this. Miller’s going to be able sustain his offensive game for longer.

I would have them in completely different tiers of bad contracts as well.

Horvat’s just sucks. Genuinely don’t think they’d be able to trade him at his current ticket without retention or significant assets dumped.

Miller’s just sucks for where this team is at and because he has a history of being pouty so it can go sour very quickly.

 

[credulous]

i'd rather have horvat on his contract. he's 26 months younger and brings more than miller on the power play imo and in his own end. horvat isn't great defensively but he's better than miller. i'm very skeptical miller's production will hold up playing at center and being the key guy on the power play. the canucks goals for on the power play dropped by a full goal and half per 60 post horvat trade

both are going to be cap killers in a few years though. ideally the team would have neither

 

[sting101]

i'd rather have horvat on his contract. he's 26 months younger and brings more than miller on the power play imo and in his own end. horvat isn't great defensively but he's better than miller. i'm very skeptical miller's production will hold up playing at center and being the key guy on the power play. the canucks goals for on the power play dropped by a full goal and half per 60 post horvat trade

both are going to be cap killers in a few years though. ideally the team would have neither

Yes well OEL is younger than Alex Pietrangelo too so?

Couldn't disagree more on the PP. Horvat just stands in the bumper has average to below average hands and a great high slot shot that wouldn't be that effective without Miller Pettersson and Hughes creating room. If he can maintain last years deflection and rebound success then maybe you can create an argument but 4 months of his career makes it a little tough to stand behind that.

Miller had 99pts at C? I get it he's 30 now but i'm not sure after seeing what he did with Tocchet and Horvat gone as much of a concern

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Yes well OEL is younger than Alex Pietrangelo too so?

Couldn't disagree more on the PP. Horvat just stands in the bumper has average to below average hands and a great high slot shot that wouldn't be that effective without Miller Pettersson and Hughes creating room. If he can maintain last years deflection and rebound success then maybe you can create an argument but 4 months of his career makes it a little tough to stand behind that.

Miller had 99pts at C? I get it he's 30 now but i'm not sure after seeing what he did with Tocchet and Horvat gone as much of a concern

Completely agree that JTM,EP,and QH are the PP QB's..You can insert any number of players into that bumper spot .

 

[credulous]

i don't really care about raw production. boeser and garland have decent raw production but no one thinks they are good. you need to look at context for the production. miller has a very unimpressive 99 points imo. he's either going to give back almost as much as he gets 5v5 if he keeps getting the same usage or his production (5v5) is going to plummet (unless the canucks find a very good center to play him with)

 

[tradervik]

Superficially I thought Miller was better than Horvat on the PK. Anyone have some with/without stats to prove or disprove that?

 

[credulous]

Superficially I thought Miller was better than Horvat on the PK. Anyone have some with/without stats to prove or disprove that?

pk performance isn't a good indicator of defensive skill but horvat is a significantly better penalty killer. miller is one of the very worst penalty killers in the league (statistically. he's probably pulled down by myers who is absolutely terrible)

miller had the 4th worst ga/60 on the pk in 2022-23

 

[theguardianII]

I normally agree with you but IMO this year's playoffs show that even if your team has a lot of warts and holes, you're simply better off with a structured team and a coach that can get them into that structure.

A huge problem in Vancouver is building teams for coaches instead of hiring coaches to coach the existing players.

Already there is the chat around the team of needing to get Tocchet type players, to play his right way.

Four coaches in 9 years is too many different types of players if building to satisfy a coach, it should be the other way around OR hire coaches that have won and play "their" right way.

Players for coaches style is like the tail wagging the dog. Coaches can be fired players can't so it is a big risk unless doing a rebuild and not bandages on a wounded product.

 

[Soups On]

i don't really care about raw production. boeser and garland have decent raw production but no one thinks they are good. you need to look at context for the production. miller has a very unimpressive 99 points imo. he's either going to give back almost as much as he gets 5v5 if he keeps getting the same usage or his production (5v5) is going to plummet (unless the canucks find a very good center to play him with)

What's an unimpressive 99 points..? It's not like he was an RNH and was clearly just picking up easy points by passing to the best duo in the NHL. He massively outscored the rest of the team and had a positive goal 5v5 differential (+15 I think). Huberdeau also had the same, Panarin had like +17, Barkov has +20 and the Calgary trio was something f***ing insane like +50 which is just nuts.

You think Huberdeau was unimpressive 2 years ago?

 

[credulous]

What's an unimpressive 99 points..? It's not like he was an RNH and was clearly just picking up easy points by passing to the best duo in the NHL. He massively outscored the rest of the team and had a positive goal 5v5 differential (+15 I think). Huberdeau also had the same, Panarin had like +17, Barkov has +20 and the Calgary trio was something f***ing insane like +50 which is just nuts.

You think Huberdeau was unimpressive 2 years ago?

11g 20a even strength. good for 136th in the league. yeah he had a lot of power play points but he also was 10th in the league in power play time and was 80th in the league in pp points per 60 (30m cutoff). miller got force fed opportunity. he did well to get as much from it as he did but he wasn't nearly as impressive as he seems when you look at how he did it

two years ago huberdeau was 16th in the league in 5v5 points and 16th in points per 60 on the power play (10th in minutes). so no, huberdeau wasn't unimpressive. he was pretty good

 

[Soups On]

11g 20a even strength. good for 136th in the league. yeah he had a lot of power play points but he also was 10th in the league in power play time and was 80th in the league in pp points per 60 (30m cutoff). miller got force fed opportunity. he did well to get as much from it as he did but he wasn't nearly as impressive as he seems when you look at how he did it

two years ago huberdeau was 16th in the league in 5v5 points and 16th in points per 60 on the power play (10th in minutes). so no, huberdeau wasn't unimpressive. he was pretty good

You brought up differential and all I'm saying is that the differential between Miller and the guys I mentioned isn't that different. You might be looking at some incorrect numbers or misunderstood my reference points - the discussion was regarding 2 years ago. Miller had 59 even strength points/non PP points I believe.

 

[VanillaCoke]

Horvat moves the needle more than Miller, neither contract is great value but not terrible anchors either.
Especially when/if the cap finally goes up.
JTM probably ages worse and sooner.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Horvat moves the needle more than Miller, neither contract is great value but not terrible anchors either.
Especially when/if the cap finally goes up.
JTM probably ages worse and sooner.

Horvats production for NYI went to about 50% of his production here...and two measly points in 6 playoff games..?

...and Miller wouldnt move the needle more than that..?

 

[credulous]

You brought up differential and all I'm saying is that the differential between Miller and the guys I mentioned isn't that different. You might be looking at some incorrect numbers or misunderstood my reference points - the discussion was regarding 2 years ago. Miller had 59 even strength points/non PP points I believe.

differential isn't really a meaningful stat. when i said miller gives back as much as he gets i didn't mean his goals differential would be bad i meant his defense is a big enough negative that it offsets his (5v5) offensive contributions. it's very hard to see this in counting stats because players have relatively little control over who they are out on the ice with

my point about miller is that while his raw production makes him look great once you put those numbers in context he looks very ordinary. he's a lot closer to jack roslovic or charlie coyle than an elite forward. (hilariously tho his closest comparison is probably thomas hertl who also puts up buckets of points while getting premium opportunity)

 

[sting101]

i don't really care about raw production. boeser and garland have decent raw production but no one thinks they are good. you need to look at context for the production. miller has a very unimpressive 99 points imo. he's either going to give back almost as much as he gets 5v5 if he keeps getting the same usage or his production (5v5) is going to plummet (unless the canucks find a very good center to play him with)

He's been over a PPG and plus 12 in 4 yrs with our structure, defense and including last years goaltending? He literally just clawed back his 5v5 goal shares last year once Bo was removed and they had some structure in the defensive zone. Long term certainly he needs a Point or Cirelli C in the system to come in and alleviate the amount of skating he has to do.

99 pts unimpressive?? Who are all the 80-90pt plus scorers that are defensive stalwarts? Seems to me most of the top scorers do so with a fair amount of high risk plays and cheating.

For Garland he makes 5 million without playing a consistent top6 role. He's obviously a very good player fun as hell to watch when on but it's just his contract and the fact we are small and wing heavy that make him less desirable and he sucks at special teams.

Boeser makes too much and after all the injuries is slower and lost his shot. It's really just a matter of we suck, he's making bank to be a part of the solution and has quite frankly been a contributor to losing more than scoring GWG's or a positive.

Huge difference between Miller who QB's a top10 PP from the half wall is an absolute beast down low in the cycle game is a top30 producer and has won a tremendous amount of games for this team off his stick vs some secondary scoring types.

 

[credulous]

99 pts unimpressive?? Who are all the 80-90pt plus scorers that are defensive stalwarts? Seems to me most of the top scorers do so with a fair amount of high risk plays and cheating.

my point is very simple: miller gets a lot of points because he gets lots of opportunity. i think it's questionable he deserves all that opportunity (particularly on a team with a deeper group of forwards) which -- to me, you are free to think differently -- makes his contract questionable. particularly going forward

i'm not saying he's terrible or anything. he's a respectable top six forward. his production has been good even given the heaps of opportunity he's been given. i'd rather have a player like carter varheaghe or ivan barbashev making half as much while giving you 70-80% of the production though

 

[sting101]

What's an unimpressive 99 points..? It's not like he was an RNH and was clearly just picking up easy points by passing to the best duo in the NHL. He massively outscored the rest of the team and had a positive goal 5v5 differential (+15 I think). Huberdeau also had the same, Panarin had like +17, Barkov has +20 and the Calgary trio was something f***ing insane like +50 which is just nuts.

You think Huberdeau was unimpressive 2 years ago?

This bang on.

WTF is going on that was one of the more impressive feats by a Canuck forward ever?

We had people drooling over what the trade returns should be and then 4-6 months later a complete 180 given the contract and his slow start on team dysfunction.

Seems some people just can't find a way to rationalize their shitty biases that arose when he was struggling and the reality a retool was in order instead of a rebuild and we were married to a volatile personality long term.

Geesh at least have some league wide perspective on players and what they have accomplished.

Unimpressive 99pts.??? Could anyone imagine saying that about Virtanen?

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Ridiculous article:

Hindsight Experiment: Could the Canucks have reached the Cup Finals in 2023 with just ten transactional do-overs?

The stage has been set for the 2023 Stanley Cup Finals, and it will be...

canucksarmy.com

Literally one transaction: Fire Benning before the 2016 draft.

Or the very least don’t re-sign him.

 

[theguardianII]

Horvats production for NYI went to about 50% of his production here...and two measly points in 6 playoff games..?

...and Miller wouldnt move the needle more than that..?

Look in 3 years when Miller approaches 33 yrs old or O'Reilly's age. He had a huge drop off.

As far as the Miller vs Horvat PK argument, who won more FO's? Every FO win is 15 to 20 sec's off the PK right?

Some stats from the NHL

Goals against per 60 min, JTM - 14.15 BH - 13.32
JTM was the 2nd worst PK center next to Lazar, BH was 3rd.

Worst PK players GA per 60 min. in order
Garland - 35.64
Lazar - 18.30
OEL - 16.04
Scehnn - 15.73
Miller - 14.15
Mikheyev - 13.96
Horvat - 13.32
Bear - 13.28
Myers - 11.87

To be fair Garland had less than 2 minutes on the PK

Blocked shots

Myers - 144 the most by far

 

[arttk]

There's no good to being a "point-per-game" player if said player is still a net negative at 5v5. That's extremely poor value. Miller's defensive play is poor, and he's been outscored at 5v5 in two of the last three seasons. He's not even an offensive driver at 5v5 either. His 5v5 scoring is middle-six tier.

Miller racks up points on the PP. If he wants to be that kind of player, he should be paid like RNH, not $8M.

Rnh is like a 60ish point player having a career season. Even then, it’s well known at this point he took a hefty home town discount on that contract. You are delusional if you think RNH is actually a comparable. Hell even if you evaluate Miller as a winger he would be paid that much.

The market has always been driven by points especially when a player hits ppg multiple times in recent history. It doesn’t really matter how you think, that’s just the way it is. If we didn’t pay him that much someone else would have if he hit UFA. All your oh he’s not that valuable talking point doesn’t f***ing matter once you scores above a certain level. Teams don’t look at a ppg player and think oh he sucks defensively so he’s not worth that much. They look at those players and think how the hell do we maximize that and minimize the downside. There are only like 30ish ppg players in the league and only like 20ish of them are centers.

 

[bossram]

Rnh is like a 60ish point player having a career season. Even then, it’s well known at this point he took a hefty home town discount on that contract. You are delusional if you think RNH is actually a comparable. Hell even if you evaluate Miller as a winger he would be paid that much.

The market has always been driven by points especially when a player hits ppg multiple times in recent history. It doesn’t really matter how you think, that’s just the way it is. If we didn’t pay him that much someone else would have if he hit UFA. All your oh he’s not that valuable talking point doesn’t f***ing matter once you scores above a certain level. Teams don’t look at a ppg player and think oh he sucks defensively so he’s not worth that much. They look at those players and think how the hell do we maximize that and minimize the downside. There are only like 30ish ppg players in the league and only like 20ish of them are centers.

Yeah, I agree with the bolded. So let someone else pay him. The "market price" of something does not automatically mean you're getting surplus value from it. I drink a lot of Monster Energy drinks. If the market price of the drinks was $50 each, I would simply...not buy them. I wouldn't throw up my hands and go, "oh well that's what it costs!"

My comparable with RNH wasn't to say they are exactly the same. My point is that they are both empty calorie scorers who get most of their cookies on the PP.

Again, like I said, there isn't much value to a guy who scores a ton, only to give it all back the other way.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

my point is very simple: miller gets a lot of points because he gets lots of opportunity. i think it's questionable he deserves all that opportunity (particularly on a team with a deeper group of forwards) which -- to me, you are free to think differently -- makes his contract questionable. particularly going forward

i'm not saying he's terrible or anything. he's a respectable top six forward. his production has been good even given the heaps of opportunity he's been given. i'd rather have a player like carter varheaghe or ivan barbashev making half as much while giving you 70-80% of the production though

You're totally ignoring context. Verhaeghe and Barbashev do what they are doing as complimentary pieces to elite centers. Miller does what he does as that elite center.

So both of those players would probably compliment Miller quite well, but if you think they're going to be of comparable value while playing with Nils Aman (who I like ftr) then you're missing the forest for the trees.