Management Thread | Who needs draft picks Edition

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I guess but in terms of the process of it changing everything on your team except for five players I think kind of qualifies as retooling the roster.

Overall though I think we're way too hung up on these terms and sometimes trying to fit Square pegs into round holes or even more accurate different oval shapes into different oval holes. I don't really see the point taking the Canucks in 2023 and trying to find all these comparable comparables instead of just pragmatically looking at what's right in front of us and discussing what needs to be done large and small major and minor.


This is the issue, as I see it. Nothing is going to fit, and that is the maddening part in this. I didn't throw out the pens as I thought they were a perfect fit for the current Canucks. I did so because of the people behind it, and I think that is more important.

Its people with a proven track record for what the team is trying to do. Don't get this confused with anything other than saying these guys have done it before.

The other issue I see and I mentioned it earlier is I do think people judge where this team is now based on its bad stretches over the last two seasons. Its not as good as it was at the end of last season, and its not as bad as it has been earlier this season.
 
This is the issue, as I see it. Nothing is going to fit, and that is the maddening part in this. I didn't throw out the pens as I thought they were a perfect fit for the current Canucks. I did so because of the people behind it, and I think that is more important.

Its people with a proven track record for what the team is trying to do. Don't get this confused with anything other than saying these guys have done it before.

The other issue I see and I mentioned it earlier is I do think people judge where this team is now based on its bad stretches over the last two seasons. Its not as good as it was at the end of last season, and its not as bad as it has been earlier this season.
Nobody is saying it’s as bad as the lows. They’re saying it’s been low as a whole. If you combine both seasons they’re 20th in points%. If you go back 3 seasons. Same thing 20th. Same if you go back 4 seasons. Still 20th.

That’s the platform for the retool. That’s where we’re trying to find a baseline for where the team is currently.
 
Fair enough.

I don’t like the comparable thing either. Bleach clean is just trying to create a starting point with commonly agreed upon basics. And why he disagrees with the direction.

Dumbed down its retool vs rebuild and while I disagree with the Canucks choice and direction, I don’t disagree there are certain circumstances that lend better to the retool on the fly approach. I just don’t think it’s worth it given the totality of the Canucks situation.

But then the excuse becomes “but Pettersson and Hughes don’t wanna rebuild” and it all gets repeated.
Yeah.. i mean basic criteria needs to be just that - basic. Like.. do you have a number 1 center projected for the next 5 years.. number 1 dman.. number 1 goalie. Compliment pieces x 3 of whatever - or.. a core group

The totality of the situation is a grand thought - and with old management yes.. it was a f*** up from drafting to minors to scouting to pro.. everything.. literally they f***ed every single aspect up.

With the new group.. like any group as a couple warts.. but some positives we are seeing in different aspects are huge. And being the right type of aggressive (or crazy) while reserving something for later can do some good things. My take anyway... my confidence is stemming from the young ufas to the farm team development - that stuff makes me very happy

It's like doing the little things to win in a game if you don't do those little things you lose.


This is the issue, as I see it. Nothing is going to fit, and that is the maddening part in this. I didn't throw out the pens as I thought they were a perfect fit for the current Canucks. I did so because of the people behind it, and I think that is more important.

Its people with a proven track record for what the team is trying to do. Don't get this confused with anything other than saying these guys have done it before.

The other issue I see and I mentioned it earlier is I do think people judge where this team is now based on its bad stretches over the last two seasons. Its not as good as it was at the end of last season, and its not as bad as it has been earlier this season.
Peesonally i see them now as more sustainable.. they just need a couple more nhl bodies to kick it up a notch and really try for that playoff spot..

Outside of a small group of teams the west is wide open for a couple years... some teams need to get really lucky with certain young players going off to keep them where they are already
 
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Which year did the Penguins start to retool? It looks to me like after their 4th straight season of picking 1st or 2nd they’ve been trying to win the cup every year.

From 2007 to today they’ve been going all in. They tried to swap out spending on their 3C from Staal to Sutter to Bonino but they didn’t really retool. They were pot invested from 2007.

They haven’t finished in the bottom 10 since 2006. The Canucks have been bottom 10 for 80% of the last decade.
I mean they got Crosby without tanking…
 
Its pretty obvious that this is the plan from the top down.

Play every game like its a playoff game and look as strong as possible so that Fatquilini doesn't lose too much money from cancelled season tickets.

Word is there has already been a waitlist for season tickets again, even prior to all the winning. It's speculated this is from the secondary market, in which tickets are being heavily scalped to tourists and international students (apparently watching pro-sports in North American is a massive draw?).
 
Word is there has already been a waitlist for season tickets again, even prior to all the winning. It's speculated this is from the secondary market, in which tickets are being heavily scalped to tourists and international students (apparently watching pro-sports in North American is a massive draw?).
This seems weird. When I’ve gone to games, the stadium is pretty full…except the club section. That section has been a ghost town when I’ve gone.
 
This semantic argument applies to the term "re- build" too.

Can we start calling it something else .. like just building.. or masonry or something...

Brick by brick-ing

Rebricking

i’m a little late on this joke but

1679508390355.jpeg


but in reality,

1679508437710.gif
 
This is akin to you wildly thrashing about for an answer. You're better than this racer.



Let's re-iterate the positions here (and correct me if I'm wrong):

You define team success by winning a cup. That the decision to re-tool is based upon the presence of Pettersson-Hughes-Demko, and management's decision to do so (because re-tools and rebuilds have an equal probability of success). Last, that re-tools have worked in the past and so should work the same for _THIS_ team.
Measuring success by winning the Cup is kind of wonky because so few teams actually win it, and the time it takes to achieve such success is typically long enough that a team could go through several cycles. Like Tampa's current run is built off top picks they made in 2008 and 2009, 10+ years ago. Kind of a stretch to call that 'success through rebuilding'.

When the cap era came in there was a few volatile years as teams adjusted to a much tighter cap ceiling at the team, and a team like Pittsburgh & Chicago was able to set the 'rebuild' standard by being in the right place at the right time with the right luck. Since then, what really sets the standard for the common Cup winner is having the right core of players and building around them:

Toews/Kane/Keith
Crosby/Malkin/Letang
Kopitar/Doughty/Quick
Stamkos/Kucherov/Hedman/Vasilevskiy
Mackinnon/Rantanen/Landeskog/Makar

A lot of these players come from the top of the draft, because that's typically where the best players come in from, but not all of them. Also a lot of rosters leaning mid 20's-30 when they won it. What gets overlooked here though is how many failed attempts to build a group like that are. This is only 5 successful recipes out of almost 20 years of top5/top10 picks.

There is no magic bullet way to win a Cup, and from the current Canucks perspective you're looking at a balance of whether going back in the tank can have you come out with a Crosby/Malkin or if what we currently have with some roster tuneup can match a successful group like LA or Colorado - which they're still young enough to fit into those time frames.
 
Measuring success by winning the Cup is kind of wonky because so few teams actually win it, and the time it takes to achieve such success is typically long enough that a team could go through several cycles. Like Tampa's current run is built off top picks they made in 2008 and 2009, 10+ years ago. Kind of a stretch to call that 'success through rebuilding'.

When the cap era came in there was a few volatile years as teams adjusted to a much tighter cap ceiling at the team, and a team like Pittsburgh & Chicago was able to set the 'rebuild' standard by being in the right place at the right time with the right luck. Since then, what really sets the standard for the common Cup winner is having the right core of players and building around them:

Toews/Kane/Keith
Crosby/Malkin/Letang
Kopitar/Doughty/Quick
Stamkos/Kucherov/Hedman/Vasilevskiy
Mackinnon/Rantanen/Landeskog/Makar

A lot of these players come from the top of the draft, because that's typically where the best players come in from, but not all of them. Also a lot of rosters leaning mid 20's-30 when they won it. What gets overlooked here though is how many failed attempts to build a group like that are. This is only 5 successful recipes out of almost 20 years of top5/top10 picks.

There is no magic bullet way to win a Cup, and from the current Canucks perspective you're looking at a balance of whether going back in the tank can have you come out with a Crosby/Malkin or if what we currently have with some roster tuneup can match a successful group like LA or Colorado - which they're still young enough to fit into those time frames.

Tampa made 7 2nd round picks over a 3 draft period from 2014-2016. This created a critical mass of prospects they could afford to start using as capital to acquire players to put them over the top.

Also almost every team you listed up there but Colorado made at minimum a conference final with their cores on ELC’s.

Imo the Canucks don’t have very much in common with the list of teams you’re referencing. Maybe the 3 quality players thing but those other teams had armies of talent.


The LA and Chicago teams were loaded with young premium talent. LA could trade Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmonds because they had top 22-25yr old talent and deep systems.

Like I get why the Canucks have done what they have but I don’t think they’re starting with a full deck. Not being able to agree on them starting with significant handicaps is weird to me. It seems like the common ground is easy. Even the optimists can’t really call it much more than a bottom half team at best. With cap concerns, a thin prospect system, and few picks.
 
In a very general way it is fair... then it becomes not fair if you then take out teams because they had succeeded in the past like a Hawks team, or a or take out a team because they finish a few points ahead of the Canucks currently like a pens team (who I only primarily used as that is where our President and GM came from), and so on.

This also doesn't take into account your harsh strict definition of a rebuild.

This doesn't take into account it doesn't matter how a team got to a point either.

You like to strip out variables that don't suit your narrative for no reason. I mean you will give one, but it isn't really valid to the point we are discussing.


How then do you suppose we compare the strength of each team from the beginning points of the re-tool?

This is in fact key to the discussion. You said I was fair in assigning the following to you "re-tools have been done in the past and so should work for this team". Meaning, the strength of the team at the start of the re-tool doesn't matter. Correct? If so, then do you think CLB, SJ and CHI have an equal chance at re-tooling successfully as do NJ, CAR, TBay and TOR (teams at random that have their cores in place, and that are already good)?

Last, I don't need to eliminate variables that don't suit my narrative. The precedent of a rebuild is well known. That is, to focus on futures. It's a liquidation of non-essential assets. This is why random callers were upset at the Hronek trade. They know it too, and they see that management is trying to cheat the process once again.

Actually, there's a more strict understanding of re-tool as well. In the past, the cores of DET and CHI were much stronger and these teams were in the playoffs prior to re-tooling. But now, re-tooling a 25th placed team is just as plausible...?

At a basic level, the more the traditional understandings of these words, rebuild and re-tool, change to fit whatever direction management is currently going, the less they mean.
 
How then do you suppose we compare the strength of each team from the beginning points of the re-tool?

This is in fact key to the discussion. You said I was fair in assigning the following to you "re-tools have been done in the past and so should work for this team". Meaning, the strength of the team at the start of the re-tool doesn't matter. Correct? If so, then do you think CLB, SJ and CHI have an equal chance at re-tooling successfully as do NJ, CAR, TBay and TOR (teams at random that have their cores in place, and that are already good)?

Why do we need to compare... this just complicates the matter, as again two teams will almost never be the same. Can you find a team that had a Petterson, Hughes and Demko that rebuilt?

In terms of who has a better chance to do it successfully, I think a lot of factors go into this including the people doing it. It is why I don't think it mattered what Benning started with he was never going to be able to do it, where JR HAS done it before. SJ and CHI are rebuilding now... if they had Petterson and Hughes... well they would be in a much different spot.

Last, I don't need to eliminate variables that don't suit my narrative. The precedent of a rebuild is well known. That is, to focus on futures. It's a liquidation of non-essential assets. This is why random callers were upset at the Hronek trade. They know it too, and they see that management is trying to cheat the process once again.

The Hronek trade has nothing to do with a rebuild... like nothing. You bringing this up shows that there isn't a proper precedent on a rebuild... or retool for that matter.

Hell we all laughed at IMac a few years ago for saying the rebuild was over.

At a basic level, the more the traditional understandings of these words, rebuild and re-tool, change to fit whatever direction management is currently going, the less they mean.

I kind of agree with this part... people use different words for it for sure. Transitioning... or whatever. Teams have done it and will continue to do it at different points in teams cycles. It has proven to be successful.
 
Measuring success by winning the Cup is kind of wonky because so few teams actually win it, and the time it takes to achieve such success is typically long enough that a team could go through several cycles. Like Tampa's current run is built off top picks they made in 2008 and 2009, 10+ years ago. Kind of a stretch to call that 'success through rebuilding'.

When the cap era came in there was a few volatile years as teams adjusted to a much tighter cap ceiling at the team, and a team like Pittsburgh & Chicago was able to set the 'rebuild' standard by being in the right place at the right time with the right luck. Since then, what really sets the standard for the common Cup winner is having the right core of players and building around them:

Toews/Kane/Keith
Crosby/Malkin/Letang
Kopitar/Doughty/Quick
Stamkos/Kucherov/Hedman/Vasilevskiy
Mackinnon/Rantanen/Landeskog/Makar

A lot of these players come from the top of the draft, because that's typically where the best players come in from, but not all of them. Also a lot of rosters leaning mid 20's-30 when they won it. What gets overlooked here though is how many failed attempts to build a group like that are. This is only 5 successful recipes out of almost 20 years of top5/top10 picks.

There is no magic bullet way to win a Cup, and from the current Canucks perspective you're looking at a balance of whether going back in the tank can have you come out with a Crosby/Malkin or if what we currently have with some roster tuneup can match a successful group like LA or Colorado - which they're still young enough to fit into those time frames.


The goal should always be the cup, but I'm well aware that team owners care more about playoff revenue than the cup itself. And so, that is likely the success standard behind the scenes. Does that change the way you build the team? IMO, no. Because whether you're a cup or bust franchise or a franchise that just cares about consistent playoff revenue (like this one), the inherent goal is building and sustaining the strongest team possible. That will ensure the most future playoff performances.

To that end, the rebuild has traditionally been the path that hedges bets the best for future success. It funnels resources to the greatest area of need. This leads to the new core, a strong pipeline, cap flexibility and so on.. This team is

Tampa's success comes from building their established core first, via drafting high and with hitting on Kucherov, and then re-tooling toward success (if you count continued draft conversions re-tooling). Rebuild first, re-tool after.

For the Canucks, they can't really tank anymore. The lowest end teams are in worse condition. They are also caught in terms of timeline: Demko has 3 years left. Pettersson is up for renewal. So it's about decisions at the margins. They could have leaned towards futures this year and then re-assess. They chose not to. It's a messy situation that this management team, I don't think, is good enough to get them out of.
 
The goal should always be the cup, but I'm well aware that team owners care more about playoff revenue than the cup itself. And so, that is likely the success standard behind the scenes. Does that change the way you build the team? IMO, no. Because whether you're a cup or bust franchise or a franchise that just cares about consistent playoff revenue (like this one), the inherent goal is building and sustaining the strongest team possible. That will ensure the most future playoff performances.

For managers its consistent playoffs as it gives you the largest window to contend and thus win the cup.

Tampa's success comes from building their established core first, via drafting high and with hitting on Kucherov, and then re-tooling toward success (if you count continued draft conversions re-tooling). Rebuild first, re-tool after.
You just described Vancouver... I mean I agree Tampa did it better, but the general point... get core, retool around said core, bring in high end players Kuch/Kuze. Isn't that what we are talking about? I ask as I am confused.
 
Why do we need to compare... this just complicates the matter, as again two teams will almost never be the same. Can you find a team that had a Petterson, Hughes and Demko that rebuilt?

In terms of who has a better chance to do it successfully, I think a lot of factors go into this including the people doing it. It is why I don't think it mattered what Benning started with he was never going to be able to do it, where JR HAS done it before. SJ and CHI are rebuilding now... if they had Petterson and Hughes... well they would be in a much different spot.



The Hronek trade has nothing to do with a rebuild... like nothing. You bringing this up shows that there isn't a proper precedent on a rebuild... or retool for that matter.

Hell we all laughed at IMac a few years ago for saying the rebuild was over.



I kind of agree with this part... people use different words for it for sure. Transitioning... or whatever. Teams have done it and will continue to do it at different points in teams cycles. It has proven to be successful.


You compare to understand the likelihood of success. Teams don't have to be exactly the same to do this either. Tampa was much stronger at the core and surrounding pieces than what VAN is today. Draft hits from mid rounds. Great contracts. Their management compared to here is like comparing albert einstein to a chimp. These situations are realms apart... And that bears understanding when you want to do what they did.

The Hronek trade signaled to fans that management was not going to rebuild.
 
You compare to understand the likelihood of success. Teams don't have to be exactly the same to do this either. Tampa was much stronger at the core and surrounding pieces than what VAN is today. Draft hits from mid rounds. Great contracts. Their management compared to here is like comparing albert einstein to a chimp. These situations are realms apart... And that bears understanding when you want to do what they did.

The Hronek trade signaled to fans that management was not going to rebuild.

My point is management has just as much a an effect on success. You need a combination of things, luck is in there too. There is also so much unknown. We have mid round picks you talk about that could be hits... when the main issue for any team is getting good players.

Honestly I think the fans that thought the Canucks were rebuilding even before the Hronek trade were pretty stupid... so yeah I don't think it is the point you do.
 
For managers its consistent playoffs as it gives you the largest window to contend and thus win the cup.


You just described Vancouver... I mean I agree Tampa did it better, but the general point... get core, retool around said core, bring in high end players Kuch/Kuze. Isn't that what we are talking about? I ask as I am confused.

I think you are confused racer because you want to start and stop the comparison where you decide. For instance, you say that you see the plans of the two teams as being the same, list the core players and cite Kumenko, Pettersson, Hughes and Demko. But we don't talk about the strength of the relative core groups. The cap flexibility. The trades. The drafting by the two clubs.

Essentially, you're saying VAN can do what TBay has done from this point forward. I'm saying, is it _likely_ they do what TBay has done from this point forward (even if I don't think the relative core groups and drafting records do not compare up to now)?
 
I think you are confused racer because you want to start and stop the comparison where you decide. For instance, you say that you see the plans of the two teams as being the same, list the core players and cite Kumenko, Pettersson, Hughes and Demko. But we don't talk about the strength of the relative core groups. The cap flexibility. The trades. The drafting by the two clubs.

Essentially, you're saying VAN can do what TBay has done from this point forward. I'm saying, is it _likely_ they do what TBay has done from this point forward (even if I don't think the relative core groups and drafting records do not compare up to now).

No... you want the entire reason why a team can or can't be just trength of the relative core groups. The cap flexibility. You lump drafting in with having extra picks and don't look at the trades at all.

I don't say that those things aren't factors, but say management and luck has just as much to do with it.
 
My point is management has just as much a an effect on success. You need a combination of things, luck is in there too. There is also so much unknown. We have mid round picks you talk about that could be hits... when the main issue for any team is getting good players.

Honestly I think the fans that thought the Canucks were rebuilding even before the Hronek trade were pretty stupid... so yeah I don't think it is the point you do.
Comparing is difficult due to situations.. but maybe try this and it could point towards how fine a needle we need to thread to retool this not only successfully but quickly

So regarding the mid round picks hitting.. lets look at their most impactful non first rounders
Kucherov - took 4 years from draft to make an impact
Palat - took 3 yrs from draft to make an impact
Point - took 3 yrs from draft to make an impact

Compare what did happen in tampa bay to what is reasonable to expect here

With what we have in our system in order to help compete for playoffs and maybe win a bit over the next two seasons.. that means we are looking at players making an impact that were drafted in 2019ish to 2022ish - making impacts on the nhl roster next season or the following season

Is that plausible? Possible sure but plausible? This is what separates our situation from so many teams that have done this .. we dont have stuff laying around.

Our retool is going to have to be done on winning trades, shrewd signings and our pro scouts being on cocaine nuclean biofuel ..
 
Comparing is difficult due to situations.. but maybe try this and it could point towards how fine a needle we need to thread to retool this not only successfully but quickly

So regarding the mid round picks hitting.. lets look at their most impactful non first rounders
Kucherov - took 4 years from draft to make an impact
Palat - took 3 yrs from draft to make an impact
Point - took 3 yrs from draft to make an impact

Compare what did happen in tampa bay to what is reasonable to expect here

With what we have in our system in order to help compete for playoffs and maybe win a bit over the next two seasons.. that means we are looking at players making an impact that were drafted in 2019ish to 2022ish - making impacts on the nhl roster next season or the following season

Is that plausible? Possible sure but plausible? This is what separates our situation from so many teams that have done this .. we dont have stuff laying around.

Our retool is going to have to be done on winning trades, shrewd signings and our pro scouts being on cocaine nuclean biofuel ..

It was never about how difficult it was to tread the needle. No one would argue it is very hard. How hard is it to find players like Hughes and Petterson? There is a lot of talk of how many retools fail, now look at how many rebuilds fail, its even more. To win is a very difficult needle to thread at any point.
 
Comparing is difficult due to situations.. but maybe try this and it could point towards how fine a needle we need to thread to retool this not only successfully but quickly

So regarding the mid round picks hitting.. lets look at their most impactful non first rounders
Kucherov - took 4 years from draft to make an impact
Palat - took 3 yrs from draft to make an impact
Point - took 3 yrs from draft to make an impact

Compare what did happen in tampa bay to what is reasonable to expect here

With what we have in our system in order to help compete for playoffs and maybe win a bit over the next two seasons.. that means we are looking at players making an impact that were drafted in 2019ish to 2022ish - making impacts on the nhl roster next season or the following season

Is that plausible? Possible sure but plausible? This is what separates our situation from so many teams that have done this .. we dont have stuff laying around.

Our retool is going to have to be done on winning trades, shrewd signings and our pro scouts being on cocaine nuclean biofuel ..


Just anecdotal, but look at this for players coming up from ELCs/Farm to cost controlled first contracts:

Point
Palat
Hedman
Gourde (signed from farm)
Stamkos
Killorn
Cirelli
Johnson (signed from farm)
Joseph
Kucherov
Vasilevskiy

Pettersson
Hughes
Kuzemenko (signed via KHL)
Boeser
Aman (signed as FA)
Podkolzin
Demko

Is that close?

It was never about how difficult it was to tread the needle. No one would argue it is very hard. How hard is it to find players like Hughes and Petterson? There is a lot of talk of how many retools fail, now look at how many rebuilds fail, its even more. To win is a very difficult needle to thread at any point.


But not all situations are equal difficulty. Some paths are more difficult than others, and sometimes even ill-fitting (as is the case here).
 
It was never about how difficult it was to tread the needle. No one would argue it is very hard. How hard is it to find players like Hughes and Petterson? There is a lot of talk of how many retools fail, now look at how many rebuilds fail, its even more. To win is a very difficult needle to thread at any point.
Okay so maybe this as a question. Looking at failed retools let's say with a 2 to 4 year lifespan why did they fail?
 
But not all situations are equal difficulty. Some paths are more difficult than others, and sometimes even ill-fitting (as is the case here).

This is your stumbling block... Sure don't disagree some are harder. I won't disagree that Benning sure put this team behind the 8 ball. I do disagree that starting from a point with Hughes and Petterson is harder than starting at a point without them, at least when they are this young.

Okay so maybe this as a question. Looking at failed retools let's say with a 2 to 4 year lifespan why did they fail?
Without looking I think it is probably mostly on poor management making bad decisions.
 
Just anecdotal, but look at this for players coming up from ELCs/Farm to cost controlled first contracts:

Point
Palat
Hedman
Gourde (signed from farm)
Stamkos
Killorn
Cirelli
Johnson (signed from farm)
Joseph
Kucherov
Vasilevskiy

Pettersson
Hughes
Kuzemenko (signed via KHL)
Boeser
Aman (signed as FA)
Podkolzin
Demko

Is that close?




But not all situations are equal difficulty. Some paths are more difficult than others, and sometimes even ill-fitting (as is the case here).
I don't know what the hell I'm going on about I don't even think Tampa Bay ever retool. They maintain their course with the group of core players that they slowly accumulated and identified and then just developed their own support. If anything that specific scenario is more applicable to Vancouver

What makes our situation even more unique is the appearance of the urgency around it so something that took Tampa Bay 10 years to solidify needs to take us half of that
 
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