LW Patrik Laine - Tappara, Liiga (2016, 2nd, WPG) XII

[93LEAFS]

Using this logic, any prospect Laine included who hasn't scored like Sknner did in his rookie year falls below him? Which I can only surmise why you brought up Skinner in the first place. In this case, you better make a list of great players picked 1-2 that will not meet this one off standard you have set.

Yet you use Seguin's standard where he didn't play on a stacked team. Its not a one off, its 3 more goals than Taylor Hall was on pace for and only 2 goals less than what Yak would of put up in a full season. So it really isn't a one off, Seguins season is actually more of a one off, because no top picks get less than 13 minutes a game, yet you chose to include that.

 

[Hagged]

Yet you use Seguin's standard where he didn't play on a stacked team. Its not a one off, its 3 more goals than Taylor Hall was on pace for and only 2 goals less than what Yak would of put up in a full season. So it really isn't a one off, Seguins season is actually more of a one off, because no top picks get less than 13 minutes a game, yet you chose to include that.

Why play the Skinner card in a game about first and Second overalls? However, I agree that Skinner's rookie season wasn't any greater than Hall's, Seguins or even Barkov's 24 point season for that matter. So why SHOULD he be included in a comparison between 1st and 2nd OA picks? What is the added value? Why not inclide Selanne's rookie season then? Selanne scored 76 goals as a rookie and was lesser than Ovie as a goal scorer?

 

[93LEAFS]

Why play the Skinner card in a game about first and Second overalls? However, I agree that Skinner's rookie season wasn't any greater than Hall's, Seguins or even Barkov's 24 point season for that matter. So why SHOULD he be included in a comparison between 1st and 2nd OA picks? What is the added value? Why not inclide Selanne's rookie season then? Selanne scored 76 goals as a rookie and was lesser than Ovie as a goal scorer?

Because it was the best scoring rookie season since Ovi by an 18 year old Rookie in the league, it should be a fair comparable, for someone being labelled the best goal scorer since Ovi. Its more, why even include Seguin. Yes he went 2nd but he played for a Cup contender and got less than 13 minutes a game. If Laine gets less than 13 minutes a game on a team unlikely to make the playoffs and only scores 11 goals, I'd say that is a disappointing season. Some people here are claiming Laine is the best goal scorer in ages, then set a bar of 11 goals as reasonable, when the situations aren't even comparable, but then ignore Skinner and Yakupov's years, or even pro-rate Hall's. or McDavid's pro-rated year which was a 29 goal pace, from a guy known more as a playmaker. Seems like stating he's going to be uber-elite then an extreme lowering of the bar.

And Selanne come on, that happened in a different era, where multiple players scored 70 goals that year.

 

[LaymanX]

I see him potting 30 goals from the power play alone. Why do people insist on selling him short?

 

[tacogeoff]

I see him potting 30 goals from the power play alone. Why do people insist on selling him short?

We only netted 38 PP goals total last season. We have Jamie Kompon so this may improve it with a new system but it will be an adjustment for the first half of the season. So I cant see him potting anywhere near 30 goals on the Power Play.

 

[catnip]

30 PP goals is insane. Why don't we browse some stats and check what the greatest goal scorers of our time have managed? Hint: it's not close to 30.

Edit: I'm guessing 30+ goals may have been a joke/sarcasm but I'm pretty sure some here would actually buy that. Hook, line and sinker.

 

[kelsier]

Laine is one prospect that can play anywhere. Lots of media attention or none. Infact I think the more attention he gets the better he will play. Some athletes thrive on it, some don't.

As for my expectations, all I expect from Laine in his rookie year, is similar goal totals as listed below, as I have seen people say Laine backers in this thread have unrealistic expectations on Laine and are overrating him.

If Laine plays ~15 minute per game and gets to the first power play unit, then fails to net atleast a twenty I'll be flatout amazed, and not in very a flattering manner. He can have a better first season than a lot of the players on the list.

 

[BB88]

I see him potting 30 goals from the power play alone. Why do people insist on selling him short?

We can pretty safely say that ain't happening.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Yet you use Seguin's standard where he didn't play on a stacked team. Its not a one off, its 3 more goals than Taylor Hall was on pace for and only 2 goals less than what Yak would of put up in a full season. So it really isn't a one off, Seguins season is actually more of a one off, because no top picks get less than 13 minutes a game, yet you chose to include that.

Yet you focus on cherry picking a one off example that was not a top 2 pick where you state is more representative to how Laine should do, all to set up a condition that is toughest to achieve whereas I have cited a more realistic scenario. The reason is clear, some are so afraid Laine may be what his backers suggest what he may become.

A future rocket Richard winner & potentially the best player picked in the 2016 draft. A reasonable scenario based on the 'best' awards in men's and junior hockey he has added to his resume this season. Again nothing outrageous in my post where I have asked you what exactly is overrated that I posted for the expectations of Laine that you again ignored.

 

[93LEAFS]

Yet you focus on cherry picking a one off example that was not a top 2 pick where you state is more representative to how Laine should do, all to set up a condition that is toughest to achieve whereas I have cited a more realistic scenario. The reason is clear, some are so afraid Laine may be what his backers suggest what he may become.

A future rocket Richard winner & potentially the best player picked in the 2016 draft. A reasonable scenario based on the 'best' awards in men's and junior hockey he has added to his resume this season. Again nothing outrageous in my post where I have asked you what exactly is overrated that I posted for the expectations of Laine that you again ignored.

I told you multiple times why its worth mentioning, because its the best 18 year old rookie season goal wise since Ovi, and many here are claiming Laine is the best goal scorer since Ovi. You for whatever reason left out Yakupov who prorated to 29 goals, same with McDavid. Yet also included Seguin, who played less than 13 minutes a game on a cup contender, like that situation is somewhat similar to Laine's situation about to walk onto a team that finished 6th last, and doesn't look like a playoff team in a stacked division.

I'm not afraid of anything. Just tired of your ridiculous premises and calling someone the best scorer since Ovi, then ignoring Skinner's season, or Yakupov's prorated year.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I told you multiple times why its worth mentioning, because its the best 18 year old rookie season goal wise since Ovi, and many here are claiming Laine is the best goal scorer since Ovi. You for whatever reason left out Yakupov who prorated to 29 goals, same with McDavid. Yet also included Seguin, who played less than 13 minutes a game on a cup contender, like that situation is somewhat similar to Laine's situation about to walk onto a team that finished 6th last, and doesn't look like a playoff team in a stacked division.

I'm not afraid of anything. Just tired of your ridiculous premises and calling someone the best scorer since Ovi, then ignoring Skinner's season, or Yakupov's prorated year.

You are basing your entire argument on Skinner's rookie year, one year. When I have posted multiple 1-2 picks comparable talents to your 1 off that scored 11-24 goals in their rookie years.

While ignoring the multiple posts here by me and some others, that expect Laine to have have Barkov adjustment period to the NHL.

If your singular argument is Laine is up against it to top his 31 goals rookie year. Then post this in all top 10 players picked since he is the only player do it lately. Laine will will in good company. It's a bogus argument you cited because atleast for me and other posters, we expect a period of adjustment for Laine. But once he has adjusted, that 31 goal mark is reachable and likely beatable for Laine in his 2nd or 3rd year.

But again this does not dispove Laine can potentially win the rocket Richard award nor he may be the best player of the draft. There are plenty of Rocket Richard winners that were considered best players in the year they won this award.

 

[93LEAFS]

You are basing your entire argument on Skinner's rookie year, one year. When I have posted multiple 1-2 picks comparable talents to Laine that scored 11-24 goals in their rookie years.

While ignoring the multiple posts here by me and some others, that expect Laine to have have Barkov adjustment period to the NHL.

If your singular argument is Laine is up against it to top his 31 goals rookie year. Then post this in all top 10 players picked since he is the only player do it lately. Laine will will in good company.

But again this does not dispove Laine ca potentially win the rocket Richard award nor he may be the best player of the draft. There are plenty of Rocket Richard winners that were considered best players in the year they won this award.

McDavid scored at a 29 goal rate, Yakupov scored at a 29 goal rate, and Taylor Hall scored at a 27. I don't know why you'd set the bar so low at using 11, but think Skinner and the others I've just listed are extreme, for a player many have claimed is the best goal scorer since Ovi. Yet, you insist on using Seguin, who is actually more of an outlier than anyone else on the list you originally provided, and whose situation as a rookie was completely different than the one Laine is walking into, yet you think it is comparable.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

McDavid scored at a 29 goal rate, Yakupov scored at a 29 goal rate, and Taylor Hall scored at a 27. I don't know why you'd set the bar so low at using 11, but think Skinner and the others I've just listed are extreme, for a player many have claimed is the best goal scorer since Ovi. Yet, you insist on using Seguin, who is actually more of an outlier than anyone else on the list you originally provided, and whose situation as a rookie was completely different than the one Laine is walking into, yet you think it is comparable.

Why are you posting in this 1 thread? Just curious? Skinner seems more the topic. If he is the standard for which rookie years are measured in terms of being productiv from the get go. I doubt anyone would argue. But this is not what most are discussing.

I cited Kane, Seguin, Hall, JT, Stamkos, Landeskog, Mackinnon, a top 2 pick as Laine is. How about them? Do you not consider different players some great ones I mentioned right there, need a period of adjustment? Yet you want to keep referring to Skinner.

PPG pace is fine, but it is not actual goal totals. If Laine puts up JT, Stamkos, Mackinnon, Landeskog, Kane like goal totals in his rookie year, given that most reasonable Laine fans expect him to adjust to the NHL as Barkov did. I consider this a success! It's too bad you think all these players are failures in their rookie years given your fixtation with Skinner's rookie year.

 

[93LEAFS]

Why are you post in this thread? Just curious? Skinner seems more the topic. I cited Kane, Seguin, Hall, JT, Stamkos, Landeskog, Mackinnon, a top 2 pick as Laine is. How about them? Yet you want to keep referring to Skinner.

PPG pace is fine, but it is not actual goal totals. If Laine puts up JT, Stamkos, Mackinnon, Landeskog, Kane like goal totals in his rookie year, given that most reasonable Laine fans expect him to adjust to the NHL as Barkov did. I consider this a success! It's too bad you think all these players are failures in their rookie years given your fixtation with Skinner's rookie year.

I don't think they are failures, but they also weren't labelled the best goal scoring prospects since Ovi. Yet you label him a future great, then use Seguins rookie year, which is in no way comparable outside of draft position to set the lowest possible bar. You just outright chose to ignore the best rookie season by an 18 year old or pace, yet chose the softest possible comparison which has no similarities.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I don't think they are failures, but they also weren't labelled the best goal scoring prospects since Ovi. Yet you label him a future great, then use Seguins rookie year, which is in no way comparable outside of draft position to set the lowest possible bar. You just outright chose to ignore the best rookie season by an 18 year old or pace, yet chose the softest possible comparison which has no similarities.

If you think scoring 31 goals in a player's rookie year is the basis in whether a player is great or not. Then look how many have the past decade. BTW did that help Skinner in susequent years? While others that did not reach that magical level you picked, have gone onto bigger things.

I expect Laine to do the same. If he does. It is quite a reachable goal for a player of his talents to be a future Richard winner, and with this follow in the footsteps of other Richard winners as being known as the best pick of 2016.

 

[93LEAFS]

If you think scoring 31 goals in a player's rookie year is the basis in whether a player is great or not. Then look how many have the past decade. BTW did that help Skinner in susequent years? While others that did not reach that magical level you picked, have gone onto bigger things.

I expect Laine to do the same. If he does. It is quite a reachable goal for a player of his talents to be a future Richard winner, and with this follow in the footsteps of other Richard winners as being known as the best pick of 2016.

You seriously think 11 goals if used how he's expected would be a reasonable season? Seguins numbers are depressed due to being used in a very limited fashion. All the others cracked atleast 20, and are mostly closer to Skinner than Seguin. And if Laine gets used in extremely limited ways like Seguin was, is that actually a good sign? Considering how drastically different the two teams are.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

You seriously think 11 goals if used how he's expected would be a reasonable season? Seguins numbers are depressed due to being used in a very limited fashion. All the others cracked atleast 20, and are mostly closer to Skinner than Seguin. And if Laine gets used in extremely limited ways like Seguin was, is that actually a good sign? Considering how drastically different the two teams are.

Using Skinner's 1 off rookie year to infer if Laine does not achieve it in his rookie year assuming he makes the Jets as a 18 to withstand unbiased reasoning...he will be less as a player in some eyes. I'd like you to try to use this example of thinking in other prospects threads you frequent. If you are to use this same standard.

 

[ijuka]

I'm expecting Laine to do significantly better than Skinner's rookie season.

But heck, it wouldn't be a disappointment even if his numbers mirrored Ehlers's. He's very young, after all. There are very few players who play in NHL at his age, especially for his size. It's known that larger players tend to develop more slowly.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I'm expecting Laine to do significantly better than Skinner's rookie season.

But heck, it wouldn't be a disappointment even if his numbers mirrored Ehlers's. He's very young, after all. There are very few players who play in NHL at his age, especially for his size. It's known that larger players tend to develop more slowly.

I am typing on my phone today so this is hard for me since it auto corrects as I type. But If Laine does reach 30 goals this year as a 18 year old in the draft we just had in the top 8 especially. It would speak volumes for what an exceptional player he is. This goes for any 18 year old rookie playing his first season in NA. Given similar top 1-2 picks have not scored more than 25 goals in their rookie 18 year old seasons. If Laine scores 20-25 min, perhaps your prediction is not unrealistic. Let's say 20-30 given Barkov scored 8 and progressed to what he is now will auger well for Laine going fwd.

To some of us, this is a future rocket Richard winner and perhaps the best player of the draft. These are reasonable attainable goals aren't they Ijuka?

 

[Captain Timo]

I'm expecting Laine to do significantly better than Skinner's rookie season.

But heck, it wouldn't be a disappointment even if his numbers mirrored Ehlers's. He's very young, after all. There are very few players who play in NHL at his age, especially for his size. It's known that larger players tend to develop more slowly.

There's absolutely no evidence/proof of this aside from a phenomenon. And let's be real, Skinner put up 31G and 63P, I'd be quite surprised if he exceeded those totals.

 

[ijuka]

There's absolutely no evidence/proof of this aside from a phenomenon. And let's be real, Skinner put up 31G and 63P, I'd be quite surprised if he exceeded those totals.

No evidence / proof of this? In my opinion, you don't need evidence to account for something you can conclude by simply utilizing common sense. I wasn't even talking about Chara.

Take a look at the heights of the players who played in NHL as u-19 and then consider that the average height in NHL is 6'2".

For top 10 u-19 players in NHL all-time scoring, their final height:

6'0", 5'11", 5'11", 5'11", 5'11", 6'1", 6'1", 6'3", 6'0", 5'10", 5'11"

From top 20, we might also add Jeff Skinner, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Nathan MacKinnon because they were the only ones out of those who played in NHL at that age post-cap. They are 5'11", 6'0", 6'0". Tyler Seguin and Steven Stamkos are also known for playing in NHL while that young and becoming stars. They are 6'1". Out of this list of 15 heights, only one is above average. 14 are below. Oh, I forgot Matt Duchene from the top 20. He was 5'11". So 15 below average.

Is this "evidence" of anything? No. We aren't in court. Feel free to disagree with me if you wish.

 

[93LEAFS]

No evidence / proof of this? In my opinion, you don't need evidence to account for something you can conclude by simply utilizing common sense. I wasn't even talking about Chara.

Take a look at the heights of the players who played in NHL as u-19 and then consider that the average height in NHL is 6'2".

For top 10 u-19 players in NHL all-time scoring, their final height:

6'0", 5'11", 5'11", 5'11", 5'11", 6'1", 6'1", 6'3", 6'0", 5'10", 5'11"

From top 20, we might also add Jeff Skinner, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Nathan MacKinnon because they were the only ones out of those who played in NHL at that age post-cap. They are 5'11", 6'0", 6'0". Tyler Seguin and Steven Stamkos are also known for playing in NHL while that young and becoming stars. They are 6'1". Out of this list of 15 heights, only one is above average. 14 are below. Oh, I forgot Matt Duchene from the top 20. He was 5'11". So 15 below average.

You'd also have to compare it against something like the top 10 all-time seasons by players, and what height they were. And the only giant among that bunch is Mario. Almost all of the top 40 indvidual seasons are below 6'3, outside of Mario and Jagr.

Is this "evidence" of anything? No. We aren't in court. Feel free to disagree with me if you wish.

The average height for an NHL forward is 6'1, so those heights aren't too far out of line. You are also using all-time heights, when players have progressively grown. Outside of Crosby, all of those are from the 1980's, where the average height was probably not 6'1 among forwards.

 

[ijuka]

The average height for an NHL forward is 6'1, so those heights aren't too far out of line. You are also using all-time heights, when players have progressively grown. Outside of Crosby, all of those are from the 1980's, where the average height was probably not 6'1 among forwards.

That's precisely why I additionally handpicked some more recent players. The only one in the top 10 is Crosby. And we should keep in mind that Laine isn't 6'1" nor 6'2" and my list also included defensemen(One of them) so I didn't specify for forwards.

Picking more recent players, Only when we go down to Jordan Staal and Valeri Nichuskin do we get to some players with a comparable size to Laine's.

Nichushkin's specs are actually surprisingly close to Laine's. 6'3", 205 lbs, seems to primarily play off-wing. He scored 34 points.

Anyway, I believe I made my point clear enough.

 

[93LEAFS]

That's precisely why I additionally handpicked some more recent players. The only one in the top 10 is Crosby. And we should keep in mind that Laine isn't 6'1" nor 6'2" and my list also included defensemen(One of them) so I didn't specify for forwards.

Picking more recent players, Only when we go down to Jordan Staal and Valeri Nichuskin do we get to some players with a comparable size to Laine's.

Nichushkin's specs are actually surprisingly close to Laine's. 6'3", 205 lbs, seems to primarily play off-wing. He scored 34 points.

Anyway, I believe I made my point clear enough.

Except Nicushkin or Staal never or atleast haven't blossomed into elite scorers. Kovy is the best comparable, and he got 51 in 65 games, and broke out the next year. I wouldn't call that a late bloomer, and in-line with guys who become high-end scorers. Smaller guys tend to be the best scorers in general, historically and currently. The top 20 scorers in the league most years, when averaged out is probably below average NHL height, especially because defenders and goalies tend to raise the average height and don't score much.

 

[psycho_dad*]

I was talking about the latter part. You really expect Laine to turn out to be better goal-scorer in the NHL than Selanne was. He was 5 times in top-5 and led the NHL in goals 3 times. That's in the upper echelon of Hall of Fame players. The rookie record had to be a joke, since under current NHL nobody is breaking that. Let alone a rookie.

I personally don't think anyone will reach 76 goals in todays NHL unless the goalie equipment changes are extremely drastic. That said, some of us do expect Laine to become something that special, 60 goal scorer or close either way. You guys can scoff at it as much as you like, it's just a difference of opinion evaluating players. I don't think we have quite seen a player with his toolbox yet, he has a lot of potential Mario traits.

Some of you seem to think he needs to be weighed on the usual #2 pick scale and some of us think he will demolish that mold. He's not your usual prospect, he's one of a very select group of hockey prospects ever.

It's fine if you don't see it or agree with it. It's your opinion. You can have it and I can have mine. I see someone who will be considered generational by majority in a short time. You think something else, maybe tarasenko? Fair enough?