LW Patrik Laine - Tappara, Liiga (2016, 2nd, WPG) XII

[psycho_dad*]

I see him potting 30 goals from the power play alone. Why do people insist on selling him short?

They have no clue what they are watching.

 

[psycho_dad*]

They have no clue what they are watching.

And by that I meant in general, 30 pp goals won't happen

 

[ijuka]

Except Nicushkin or Staal never or atleast haven't blossomed into elite scorers. Kovy is the best comparable, and he got 51 in 65 games, and broke out the next year. I wouldn't call that a late bloomer, and in-line with guys who become high-end scorers. Smaller guys tend to be the best scorers in general, historically and currently. The top 20 scorers in the league most years, when averaged out is probably below average NHL height, especially because defenders and goalies tend to raise the average height and don't score much.

Yeah, Kovalchuk is. He just was a longer time ago than my cutoff for "recent players". I'd be happy if Laine did as well as Kovalchuk or got close, at least.

 

[QnebO]

http://www.nhl.com/ice/fi/news.htm?id=890433&navid=DL|NHL-fi|home

NHL.com interview on Rantanen about his last summer fatigue (having to travel with plane over the atlant 9 times) and how it affects training. He also talks about training with Laine and that Laine has even harder situation as he went all the way to the playoffs (+whc).

Some one could translate for rest, I might be able to do it later but am working now. Not sure if google translate still works on Finnish well enough to read that.

 

[teravaineSAROS]

http://www.nhl.com/ice/fi/news.htm?id=890433&navid=DL|NHL-fi|home

NHL.com interview on Rantanen about his last summer fatigue (having to travel with plane over the atlant 9 times) and how it affects training. He also talks about training with Laine and that Laine has even harder situation as he went all the way to the playoffs (+whc).

Some one could translate for rest, I might be able to do it later but am working now. Not sure if google translate still works on Finnish well enough to read that.

that's crazy, luckily Rantanen had an exceptional AHL season

 

[ijuka]

Not a whole lot of it is about Laine. You really summed it up pretty well. They just discussed how rough it is for Europeans due to all the flying they will have to do and that Laine still has managed to do very well and has developed well in little time. Rantanen did mention that it tends to take a week for him to recover from a flight overseas.

 

[ps241]

Maurice is a big wild card in Laine's production in his rookie year.

Exhibit A: Nik Ehlers last season started and finished the season well but Maurice still decided to play Ehlers with Chris (Colton Orr) Thorburn for 20 + games? Our board is devided on that usage, some feel it took the pressure off Nik and taught him how do deal with being pinned in his own end for every shift others like myself think he would have learned all the same lessons and scored over 50 +'points (his pace away from Thorbs) if he wasn't subjected to that hazing ritual.

If Patrik avoids Thorburn (that is a huge if) he could put up decent points as a rookie but only time will tell.

 

[Gavy]

Yeah, Kovalchuk is. He just was a longer time ago than my cutoff for "recent players". I'd be happy if Laine did as well as Kovalchuk or got close, at least.

If Laine becomes a player like Kovalchuk or his style even resemblem Kovslchuk, then Laine will be my new favourite player. I loved watching Kovy play

 

[X66]

Any word on if Laine will be playing LW or RW in the NHL?

I don't know if he has the skating ability to play on his off wing YET, but he still should get all of his PP time on that left side.

 

[Captain Timo]

No evidence / proof of this? In my opinion, you don't need evidence to account for something you can conclude by simply utilizing common sense. I wasn't even talking about Chara.

Take a look at the heights of the players who played in NHL as u-19 and then consider that the average height in NHL is 6'2".

For top 10 u-19 players in NHL all-time scoring, their final height:

6'0", 5'11", 5'11", 5'11", 5'11", 6'1", 6'1", 6'3", 6'0", 5'10", 5'11"

From top 20, we might also add Jeff Skinner, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Nathan MacKinnon because they were the only ones out of those who played in NHL at that age post-cap. They are 5'11", 6'0", 6'0". Tyler Seguin and Steven Stamkos are also known for playing in NHL while that young and becoming stars. They are 6'1". Out of this list of 15 heights, only one is above average. 14 are below. Oh, I forgot Matt Duchene from the top 20. He was 5'11". So 15 below average.

Is this "evidence" of anything? No. We aren't in court. Feel free to disagree with me if you wish.

I just disagree with the notion that being big = being a project. A project is a player with the tools that simply hasn't put things into place to become the player he could be. That has nothing to do with size. Sure, a taller player could take more time to reach the NHL because he needs time to improve his skating (traditionally a trait of larger players) but would the same not be true for a smaller player, who typically needs to put on weight?

I'm just in disagreement with the idea that bigger players take more time to develop and become NHL players. Size means nothing, if you're ready you're ready, if you're not then you're not. I'm not sure why you're bringing up evidence and court, when you're making claims on an online forum is somebody not allowed to disagree with you and state that there isn't any evidence supporting your claim?

 

[Huffer]

Any word on if Laine will be playing LW or RW in the NHL?

I don't know if he has the skating ability to play on his off wing YET, but he still should get all of his PP time on that left side.

Probably won't know until the season starts and PoMo starts putting his lines together. Depending on injuries, I could see him on both sides at times. Also depends on where they want Ehlers long term, how Connor looks and how much he can handle, chemistry, etc, etc.

 

[bigdog16]

They have no clue what they are watching.

You do know that 30 power play goals has only happened 5 times in NHL history, right? The most recent being Mario more than 20 years ago.

 

[kelsier]

I just disagree with the notion that being big = being a project. A project is a player with the tools that simply hasn't put things into place to become the player he could be. That has nothing to do with size. Sure, a taller player could take more time to reach the NHL because he needs time to improve his skating (traditionally a trait of larger players) but would the same not be true for a smaller player, who typically needs to put on weight?

I'm just in disagreement with the idea that bigger players take more time to develop and become NHL players. Size means nothing, if you're ready you're ready, if you're not then you're not. I'm not sure why you're bringing up evidence and court, when you're making claims on an online forum is somebody not allowed to disagree with you and state that there isn't any evidence supporting your claim?

If you look at the list there was only one player who was taller than 6"1. One player out of 11. A coincidence? Perhaps, or perhaps not. To me it looks like a pattern. One could easily make a case for bigger players taking more time to adjust. These kids tend to have growth spurts that include having to re-adjust skating, stick-work, body stress and so forth. All of which do affect one's on ice ability. Smaller guys who have gone through growing aches sooner don't necessarily have to make that much bodily adjustments and can focus on either translating game to smaller rinks and/or playing in the highest level itself. These top end forward prospect who were NHL ready at early age normally had one thing in common, they were fast skaters and instead of playing the power game they were accustomed to beating the opponents by out-pacing them. Where as the bigger forwards, who often turn out power forwards, use their size, instead of being elusive as their smaller peers. Meaning, their physical strength isn't yet NHL level. Saying something like "either they are or they aren't ready" is simplified and in this case it looks inaccurate.

I didn't double-check the validity regarding whether the list was accurate, but the argument doesn't require rocket science to be comprehensible and seems to have data to back it up.

 

[kelsier]

You do know that 30 power play goals has only happened 5 times in NHL history, right? The most recent being Mario more than 20 years ago.

Guess you missed this?

And by that I meant in general, 30 pp goals won't happen

 

[ijuka]

Any word on if Laine will be playing LW or RW in the NHL?

I don't know if he has the skating ability to play on his off wing YET, but he still should get all of his PP time on that left side.

Hopefully LW, he's much worse as RW. Normally for a rookie you would pick the side the player has 200 games of experience playing during the recent years instead of the one he has 10 games experience of playing. I really hope that'll be the case.


A large reason for Laine already being so ready at this point in time is because he already was over 6'3" tall back when he was 15 years old.

 

[Captain Timo]

If you look at the list there was only one player who was taller than 6"1. One player out of 11. A coincidence? Perhaps, or perhaps not. To me it looks like a pattern. One could easily make a case for bigger players taking more time to adjust. These kids tend to have growth spurts that include having to re-adjust skating, stick-work, body stress and so forth. All of which do affect one's on ice ability. Smaller guys who have gone through growing aches sooner don't necessarily have to make that much bodily adjustments and can focus on either translating game to smaller rinks and/or playing in the highest level itself. These top end forward prospect who were NHL ready at early age normally had one thing in common, they were fast skaters and instead of playing the power game they were accustomed to beating the opponents by out-pacing them. Where as the bigger forwards, who often turn out power forwards, use their size, instead of being elusive as their smaller peers. Meaning, their physical strength isn't yet NHL level. Saying something like "either they are or they aren't ready" is simplified and in this case it looks inaccurate.

I didn't double-check the validity regarding whether the list was accurate, but the argument doesn't require rocket science to be comprehensible and seems to have data to back it up.

The list wasn't that great, as pointed out by another poster.

Even if you have a case, why is this being brought up in a Laine thread? Watching videos of his younger days (15/16 years old) he's still clearly a tall kid. You mention grow spurts but that clearly wasn't the case for Laine, he's always been a bigger guy.

Regardless, I still disagree with the notion, and I don't see how Laine would struggle in his first year because he's 'big'.

 

[93LEAFS]

If you look at the list there was only one player who was taller than 6"1. One player out of 11. A coincidence? Perhaps, or perhaps not. To me it looks like a pattern. One could easily make a case for bigger players taking more time to adjust. These kids tend to have growth spurts that include having to re-adjust skating, stick-work, body stress and so forth. All of which do affect one's on ice ability. Smaller guys who have gone through growing aches sooner don't necessarily have to make that much bodily adjustments and can focus on either translating game to smaller rinks and/or playing in the highest level itself. These top end forward prospect who were NHL ready at early age normally had one thing in common, they were fast skaters and instead of playing the power game they were accustomed to beating the opponents by out-pacing them. Where as the bigger forwards, who often turn out power forwards, use their size, instead of being elusive as their smaller peers. Meaning, their physical strength isn't yet NHL level. Saying something like "either they are or they aren't ready" is simplified and in this case it looks inaccurate.

I didn't double-check the validity regarding whether the list was accurate, but the argument doesn't require rocket science to be comprehensible and seems to have data to back it up.

Almost all of the data comes from the 80's as pointed out, and forwards (who generally are at the top of these lists) are generally the shortest player's on the ice. So most of the players being around an average of 6 feet in is not out of line with the average height.

Of the top 50 NHL individual seasons, only 1 player on the list is taller than 6'3 (Mario who is there multiple times). It just happens the best scoring players tend to be shorter. Of the top 10 scorers of all time the only one 6'3 or taller are Mario and Ron Francis. This year in the NHL only 3 of the top 20 scorers were 6'3 or taller (Thornton, Wheeler and Brent Burns) whereas there were multiple sub-6 feet guys (Kane, Crosby, Gaudreau, Pavelski, Panarin, and Giroux).

You have to realize the average forward is 6'1, NHL player average is closer to 6'2 fueled by goalies and defenders. So when examining those factors its not a surprise top scorers would tend to be on the shorter size. Wheeler, and Burns where late bloomers, which gives the theory some credence, while Thornton had a terrible rookie year but broke out in year 2 and 3, and was a star by year 4. But even just looking at big guys around 6'2 or so, who were drafted high and became stars, they were elite fairly early in there careers. For example look at Kovalchuk, Ovechkin, and Malkin. Guys like Rick Nash, Spezza and Erik Staal who entered the league in the worst of the dead-puck era were also high-scorers fairly early on. I don't think there is any definitive proof big guys take longer. For example the most hyped of big guys Mario and the Big E, produced right on line with the most hyped of average to smaller forwards.

It also just happens in recent years, no forward over 6'2 as been the first overall pick, which is why they would dominate the most recent parts of that lists. Matthews, Ovi, Kovalchuk and Rick Nash are the only forwards taken first overall who are 6'2 or taller since 2000. So considering that usually at most 2 or 3 forwards each year are in the league right after there draft, nad about 35% of those people are in-eligible for Ijuka's criteria (late birthday therefore it is not counted as an under-19 season), you can see why the recent people on the list tends to be dominated by players such as Mackinnon, Crosby, and Taylor Hall. But there is little evidence of the taller players in those classes eventually surpassing those players.

 

[QnebO]

Laine production and play clearly suffered at rw. Looks funny if you check his points in the tournament, but it was clearly visible. Can kinda see it by watching the highlights, he scored almost every goal and point from left side despite playing right side 80% of the time.

 

[ijuka]

Laine production and play clearly suffered at rw. Looks funny if you check his points in the tournament, but it was clearly visible. Can kinda see it by watching the highlights, he scored almost every goal and point from left side despite playing right side 80% of the time.

Yes, from the sample size I checked in my Laine WHC highlight compilation, he had around twice as many good plays on the left side in comparison to the right side. This despite playing as the RW.

Of course, most seem to enjoy ignoring this even though I've pointed this out at least 4 times so far.

 

[IFK]

(mod)

Espoo United (Mestis) 0-3 Amur Habarovsk (KHL).

http://www.mtv.fi/sport/jaakiekko/m...015832?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

I hope that Laine have good summer training still that he have lot of flying over Europe to NA and back again. I also hope that he get lot of PP time and good players on his side 5 vs. 5. I will be happy if Laine will score 20-25 goals in his first season in NHL and if he score 30+, it will be amazing, but more than goals, i want to see his development to next level and first season goals or points are not that important to me, just like Barkov and actually many star players haven't product lot of points in their first season in NHL.

 

[kelsier]

The list wasn't that great, as pointed out by another poster.

Even if you have a case, why is this being brought up in a Laine thread? Watching videos of his younger days (15/16 years old) he's still clearly a tall kid. You mention grow spurts but that clearly wasn't the case for Laine, he's always been a bigger guy.

Regardless, I still disagree with the notion, and I don't see how Laine would struggle in his first year because he's 'big'.

You mean that the list wasn't great because it had players from the 80s in it? Laine has been a big kid for a long time now. The theory itself doesn't hold much value in regards to Laine. His development is/was stalled mainly due to an injury instead of having a late growth spurt. The point was brought up nevertheless and seems to be valid, nevermind if you like it or not. I would still like to hear why you disagree with the general notion with your own words instead of just "because someone else pointed out it wasn't great".

Almost all of the data comes from the 80's as pointed out, and forwards (who generally are at the top of these lists) are generally the shortest player's on the ice. So most of the players being around an average of 6 feet in is not out of line with the average height.

Of the top 50 NHL individual seasons, only 1 player on the list is taller than 6'3 (Mario who is there multiple times). It just happens the best scoring players tend to be shorter. Of the top 10 scorers of all time the only one 6'3 or taller are Mario and Ron Francis. This year in the NHL only 3 of the top 20 scorers were 6'3 or taller (Thornton, Wheeler and Brent Burns) whereas there were multiple sub-6 feet guys (Kane, Crosby, Gaudreau, Pavelski, Panarin, and Giroux).

You have to realize the average forward is 6'1, NHL player average is closer to 6'2 fueled by goalies and defenders. So when examining those factors its not a surprise top scorers would tend to be on the shorter size. Wheeler, and Burns where late bloomers, which gives the theory some credence, while Thornton had a terrible rookie year but broke out in year 2 and 3, and was a star by year 4. But even just looking at big guys around 6'2 or so, who were drafted high and became stars, they were elite fairly early in there careers. For example look at Kovalchuk, Ovechkin, and Malkin. Guys like Rick Nash, Spezza and Erik Staal who entered the league in the worst of the dead-puck era were also high-scorers fairly early on. I don't think there is any definitive proof big guys take longer. For example the most hyped of big guys Mario and the Big E, produced right on line with the most hyped of average to smaller forwards.

It also just happens in recent years, no forward over 6'2 as been the first overall pick, which is why they would dominate the most recent parts of that lists. Matthews, Ovi, Kovalchuk and Rick Nash are the only forwards taken first overall who are 6'2 or taller since 2000. So considering that usually at most 2 or 3 forwards each year are in the league right after there draft, nad about 35% of those people are in-eligible for Ijuka's criteria (late birthday therefore it is not counted as an under-19 season), you can see why the recent people on the list tends to be dominated by players such as Mackinnon, Crosby, and Taylor Hall. But there is little evidence of the taller players in those classes eventually surpassing those players.

So since you think the data doesn't apply to modern day, lets look at some of the more recent u19 top scorers in the NHL who are eligible:

Patrick Kane 5"11
Jeff Skinner 5"11
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 6"0
Nathan Mackinnon 6"0
Taylor Hall 6"0 (could be 6"1?)

Those are a few that came to mind but I could have missed a few. Feel free to add if so. None of these guys are over 6"1, so it looks like the theory holds time scrutiny.

"It just happens the best scoring players tend to be shorter"? Ok, lets look at the scoring charts from last season: Kane, Benn 6"2, Crosby, Thorton 6"4, Karlsson, Pavelski, Wheeler 6"5, Gaudreau, Kuznetsov, Burns 6"5 (D), Kopitar 6"3, Tarasenko, Seguin, Ovechkin 6"2. Now we have 6 players in top 15. Now when we look at the top scorers there suddenly is 6 guys who are taller than the average 6"1. This again enforces the theory as most of these guys probably wouldn't have been ready to play in the NHL on desired level at age 18 with possible exceptions of obviously Thorton (who played but wasn't exactly productive), Ovechkin and Kopitar, who were late birthday so wouldn't apply to the U19 rule. Also out of fresh memory, guys like Getzlaf, Perry, Scheifele, Benn (there's probably a lot more) - none of them were top picks. Why? All were one way or another late bloomers and would have been top picks in their respective draft years if they were easier to project, didn't have skating issues and whatever else I previously mentioned in my earlier post.

If you hadn't brought up the case of Thorton, I certainly would have. He's prime example of a guy who's got high expectations, doesn't get much anything done on the first season and then boom, a home run. Nash being another but less extreme example, you might expect a tad bit more from a fast 6"4 power forward who gets picked #1 than 39 points. A lot of the guys we both mentioned have similar development curve, which leads to the only possible conclusion, the bigger guys take longer to develop. Lindros and Lemieux (both generational talents) make prime exceptions to that rule.

The fact that there hasn't been #1 forward picks recently that were equal or taller than 6"2 is another good point. Looking back today, would you take Barkov over Mackinnon, Toews over Johnsson/Staal? <insert a forward taller than 6"1> over Yakupov? I think it would be a yes if you asked me in each one of those cases. Simply the lack of having big skilled and tall forwards being drafted first make an excellent enforcement to the argument. There are only a handful of players who were ready at that age, in a manner that they weren't considered risk picks for someone to go down first in the podium.

Everything here points out to what I said earlier and what ijuka originally stated, bigger forwards tend to be less ready due to physical elements I already listed (often having to re-adjust skating, stick-work, to body stress etc). This is derailing a bit but interesting to dig into. Also I have to say, this was a very good observation from ijuka, wouldn't even have occured to me without pointing it out.

 

[teravaineSAROS]

Any word on if Laine will be playing LW or RW in the NHL?

I don't know if he has the skating ability to play on his off wing YET, but he still should get all of his PP time on that left side.

I reckon LW, he was moved to the LW after playing on the RW which benefitted him imo.

Also since Wheeler plays on the right side and is great at passing I feel like that would benefit both of them

 

[ijuka]

I reckon LW, he was moved to the LW after playing on the RW which benefitted him imo.

Also since Wheeler plays on the right side and is great at passing I feel like that would benefit both of them

Yep. In my opinion, Laine-Scheifele-Wheeler would be very optimal.

 

[teravaineSAROS]

Laine production and play clearly suffered at rw. Looks funny if you check his points in the tournament, but it was clearly visible. Can kinda see it by watching the highlights, he scored almost every goal and point from left side despite playing right side 80% of the time.

Yea definitely, he was better than I expected at RW but thats because he kept moving to the left side

 

[kelsier]

Yep. In my opinion, Laine-Scheifele-Wheeler would be very optimal.

If Laine got into the first line he'd be the front runner for the Calder. Second line + first PP unit wouldn't be bad either. Atleast the management has openly stated that they are going to give him every opportunity, and if so, I'm confident Laine can keep up with the rest or best of them.