LW Patrik Laine - Tappara, Liiga (2016, 2nd, WPG) XII

[ijuka]

If Laine got into the first line he'd be the front runner for the Calder. Second line + first PP unit wouldn't be bad either. Atleast the management has openly stated that they are going to give him every opportunity, and if so, I'm confident Laine can keep up with the rest or best of them.

LW should be the easiest spot on the top line to penetrate into. Ehlers prefers RW as is and even so, I'm fully confident that Laine is a better player already.

 

[CorgisPer60]

I'm fairly certain that Paul Maurice will have him start down on the lineup until he can prove that his defensive game is NHL caliber. That's basically what he did with Ehlers. You don't need to be the most defensively responsible rookie ever; just look to be in position and don't cheat on offense.

 

[93LEAFS]

You mean that the list wasn't great because it had players from the 80s in it? Laine has been a big kid for a long time now. The theory itself doesn't hold much value in regards to Laine. His development is/was stalled mainly due to an injury instead of having a late growth spurt. The point was brought up nevertheless and seems to be valid, nevermind if you like it or not. I would still like to hear why you disagree with the general notion with your own words instead of just "because someone else pointed out it wasn't great".



So since you think the data doesn't apply to modern day, lets look at some of the more recent u19 top scorers in the NHL who are eligible:

Patrick Kane 5"11
Jeff Skinner 5"11
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 6"0
Nathan Mackinnon 6"0
Taylor Hall 6"0 (could be 6"1?)

Those are a few that came to mind but I could have missed a few. Feel free to add if so. None of these guys are over 6"1, so it looks like the theory holds time scrutiny.

"It just happens the best scoring players tend to be shorter"? Ok, lets look at the scoring charts from last season: Kane, Benn 6"2, Crosby, Thorton 6"4, Karlsson, Pavelski, Wheeler 6"5, Gaudreau, Kuznetsov, Burns 6"5 (D), Kopitar 6"3, Tarasenko, Seguin, Ovechkin 6"2. Now we have 6 players in top 15. Now when we look at the top scorers there suddenly is 6 guys who are taller than the average 6"1. This again enforces the theory as most of these guys probably wouldn't have been ready to play in the NHL on desired level at age 18 with possible exceptions of obviously Thorton (who played but wasn't exactly productive), Ovechkin and Kopitar, who were late birthday so wouldn't apply to the U19 rule. Also out of fresh memory, guys like Getzlaf, Perry, Scheifele, Benn (there's probably a lot more) - none of them were top picks. Why? All were one way or another late bloomers and would have been top picks in their respective draft years if they were easier to project, didn't have skating issues and whatever else I previously mentioned in my earlier post.

If you hadn't brought up the case of Thorton, I certainly would have. He's prime example of a guy who's got high expectations, doesn't get much anything done on the first season and then boom, a home run. Nash being another but less extreme example, you might expect a tad bit more from a fast 6"4 power forward who gets picked #1 than 39 points. A lot of the guys we both mentioned have similar development curve, which leads to the only possible conclusion, the bigger guys take longer to develop. Lindros and Lemieux (both generational talents) make prime exceptions to that rule.

The fact that there hasn't been #1 forward picks recently that were equal or taller than 6"2 is another good point. Looking back today, would you take Barkov over Mackinnon, Toews over Johnsson/Staal? <insert a forward taller than 6"1> over Yakupov? I think it would be a yes if you asked me in each one of those cases. Simply the lack of having big skilled and tall forwards being drafted first make an excellent enforcement to the argument. There are only a handful of players who were ready at that age, in a manner that they weren't considered risk picks for someone to go down first in the podium.

Everything here points out to what I said earlier and what ijuka originally stated, bigger forwards tend to be less ready due to physical elements I already listed (often having to re-adjust skating, stick-work, to body stress etc). This is derailing a bit but interesting to dig into. Also I have to say, this was a very good observation from ijuka, wouldn't even have occured to me without pointing it out.

My main point was it doesn't seem to drastically effect highly touted prospects like Laine. They generally perform to the level expected as long as they end up panning out. Which is mostly what we are talking about with guys who are playing under 19. Most players who end up great and are drafted high perform in there first post draft year. As for picks outside the top 10 obviously they will take longer to develop. You could apply the same logic you applied to Benn to guys like Tyler Johnson, Marc Savard, MSL, Gaudreu, Pavelski etc. There no evidence that big guys take longer, its just a cliche expression, generally because taller guys are drafted as projects, and the occasional one pans out, whereas shorter guys need to be performing to have any sort of chance.

I also don't get your point about Toews, both Staal and Johnson are taller than him by 2 inches. Staal also had a great u-19 year, and never built significantly on that season offensively.

 

[ijuka]

I'm fairly certain that Paul Maurice will have him start down on the lineup until he can prove that his defensive game is NHL caliber. That's basically what he did with Ehlers. You don't need to be the most defensively responsible rookie ever; just look to be in position and don't cheat on offense.

If you've been listening, he thinks much, much more highly of Laine's defensive game pre-NHL than he did of Ehlers's.

 

[Currysux*]

Laine production and play clearly suffered at rw. Looks funny if you check his points in the tournament, but it was clearly visible. Can kinda see it by watching the highlights, he scored almost every goal and point from left side despite playing right side 80% of the time.

He looks more comfortable shooting the puck beside his body instead of across when going to the net. If he gets more comfortable shooting across his body from the right side or gets a good snapper in his game like Kessel's he can be a deadly player.

 

[Whileee]

I'm fairly certain that Paul Maurice will have him start down on the lineup until he can prove that his defensive game is NHL caliber. That's basically what he did with Ehlers. You don't need to be the most defensively responsible rookie ever; just look to be in position and don't cheat on offense.

Nice thing is that the Jets have better depth this season so even a bit down the line-up Laine should play with some talented linemates like Perreault and Armia or Dano. There should be room for him on the power play.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Also a nice trait Finnish hockey players have is they generally produce well rounded 200 ft players. Credit to their system most likely instilled in them as players from a young age. I would be shocked if Laine will not become a prolific goal scorer that is also defensively responsible in the NHL.

I don't think it will be such a bad thing if he starts on the 3rd line with Perrault with duties on the 2nd PP unit next year. He won't get to play on the 1st unit or with Little and Scheifele until he proves to Maurice he has earned that ice time.

This is only fair to me. Laine will have to earn his mins.

As mentioned in other threads by me, once he gets the Barkov adjustment out of the way. He will be lights out in the Nhl

 

[BB88]

I'm fairly certain that Paul Maurice will have him start down on the lineup until he can prove that his defensive game is NHL caliber. That's basically what he did with Ehlers. You don't need to be the most defensively responsible rookie ever; just look to be in position and don't cheat on offense.

I thought I've read that the plan/hope is to play him with talented forwards, and him starting with Little is the most likely scenario right now?

 

[KingBogo]

I thought I've read that the plan/hope is to play him with talented forwards, and him starting with Little is the most likely scenario right now?

I'd expect Laine to play up the line up. The Maurice interviews I heard post draft talked about the rarity of getting a player like Laine and putting him in a position to succeed. If he scores out of the gate I think he plays with Scheifele, with Ehlers on the right side. I think the Jets will go with a vet line of MP-Little-Wheeler for the hard matchups and put Laine-Scheif-Ehlers in more offensive positions. The have lots of you other talented young players to battle it out in the bottom 6.

Scheifele is fast emerging as a legit #1 C and Ehlers is a speed demon and play maker. And both are great at pushing pushing possession with speed through the neutral zone. You add a goal scorer like Laine and you have the potential for one of the top lines in the league.

 

[kelsier]

My main point was it doesn't seem to drastically effect highly touted prospects like Laine. They generally perform to the level expected as long as they end up panning out. Which is mostly what we are talking about with guys who are playing under 19. Most players who end up great and are drafted high perform in there first post draft year. As for picks outside the top 10 obviously they will take longer to develop. You could apply the same logic you applied to Benn to guys like Tyler Johnson, Marc Savard, MSL, Gaudreu, Pavelski etc. There no evidence that big guys take longer, its just a cliche expression, generally because taller guys are drafted as projects, and the occasional one pans out, whereas shorter guys need to be performing to have any sort of chance.

I also don't get your point about Toews, both Staal and Johnson are taller than him by 2 inches. Staal also had a great u-19 year, and never built significantly on that season offensively.

Think I explicitly mentioned Laine as an example of a big, tall prospect who doesn't apply to the argument due to been grown up early on. Didn't quite get that statement of performing great? Everything discussed previously indicates that taller and bigger guys are more of a projects when compared to smaller peers. It really even isn't dependant of a draft position as these examples show. I don't think there's any scientific studies of the matter, so we have to go with the data that we have. Although I might look into that when I have more time. One could think the big guys should be more ready for the NHL due the size but there's nothing really to back this up. Then on the opposite side, as I already mentioned, the smaller guys tend to have the advantage of keeping up with the pace of the game at a higher level post draft season.

What comes down to applying the logic on the smaller guys. Yeah some if not most of them are projects as well. Still, the sample size of over 6"1 guys excelling in the NHL on their post draft year is so tiny, that it cannot be ignored when you find plenty of tall guys high on the scoring charts basically every year. Yeah the Toews example was a bad one, was typing in a hurry and didn't do the homework.

 

[PhilJets]

I'd expect Laine to play up the line up. The Maurice interviews I heard post draft talked about the rarity of getting a player like Laine and putting him in a position to succeed. If he scores out of the gate I think he plays with Scheifele, with Ehlers on the right side. I think the Jets will go with a vet line of MP-Little-Wheeler for the hard matchups and put Laine-Scheif-Ehlers in more offensive positions. The have lots of you other talented young players to battle it out in the bottom 6.

Scheifele is fast emerging as a legit #1 C and Ehlers is a speed demon and play maker. And both are great at pushing pushing possession with speed through the neutral zone. You add a goal scorer like Laine and you have the potential for one of the top lines in the league.

This is the line up I'm seeing

Perrault little Wheeler
Laine Schiefele EHLERS

Just don't know who plays c between connor and Stafford

 

[ffh]

This is the line up I'm seeing

Perrault little Wheeler
Laine Schiefele EHLERS

Just don't know who plays c between connor and Stafford

since the jets will pay mathias 2.1 mill and he can score at least 30 pts he will be on 3rd line with connoor and Perrault. I say Perrault at c because coach said that is were they see him playing not my assumption. Stafford gets 20-20. no 1 we had in bottom 6 even comes close to that . he is in top 6.

laine little Stafford will be the second line to start year.

 

[Loffer]

How is Pat doing? Some updates from Turku, Finland. Merci.

 

[psycho_dad*]

How is Pat doing? Some updates from Turku, Finland. Merci.

There hasn't been any. I think he has managed to keep reporters away and focusing on training which is great

 

[teravaineSAROS]

As mentioned in other threads by me, once he gets the Barkov adjustment out of the way. He will be lights out in the Nhl

pretty much, I expect him to struggle at the beginning like Barkov (well Barkov didn't "struggle" per se, but his play didn't suggest he'd be this good by today)

 

[JJTT]

How is Pat doing? Some updates from Turku, Finland. Merci.

Documentary from Laine's and co summer training is coming out on the 16th

 

[Gsus]

Documentary from Laine's and co summer training is coming out on the 16th

Wow, that's an interesting one for sure. Will be definitely waiting for it.

 

[CorgisPer60]

Should be an interesting look at summer training beyond 20 second Instagram videos of people deadlifting.

 

[vendetta]

pretty much, I expect him to struggle at the beginning like Barkov (well Barkov didn't "struggle" per se, but his play didn't suggest he'd be this good by today)

If u watched Barkov his rookie year everything about his play suggested he would be this good... It was blatantly obvious from day 1

 

[agent082]

Documentary from Laine's and co summer training is coming out on the 16th

That doesn't sound good

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

Yep. In my opinion, Laine-Scheifele-Wheeler would be very optimal.

This is the line up I would like to see, and believe Maurice will go with.

 

[Loffer]

Documentary from Laine's and co summer training is coming out on the 16th

Oh, great. Thanks. Let's see if Patrik has gained some leverage in his appendages lol.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

pretty much, I expect him to struggle at the beginning like Barkov (well Barkov didn't "struggle" per se, but his play didn't suggest he'd be this good by today)

I would side on the side of caution since we have seen some tremendously talented top 2 picks similar in talent to Laine not score 30 goals in their rookie 18 year old draft year. In the range of 8 to 24 goals. From Barkov to Stamkos.

Can Laine buck the trend and do better than some of his highly regarded contemporaries, perhaps since he is in my mind potentially the best goal scorer to be drafted since Ovie. But historically speaking he would be bucking history.

But if we look at it historically for this year, if he does struggle as Barkov and others have. I would not hold it against him too much. But here is the important part, once he has the period of adjustment I believe he will be lights out in the NHL. Much like Barkov and others are now.

Laine has 2 things to overcome unlike NA developed players. He is moving from a European style of game to a NA style of game, and he is a 18 year old rookie playing in his first pro NA season this year. He has more obstacles to deal with, but he should be fine once he has adjusted.

 

[teravaineSAROS]

If u watched Barkov his rookie year everything about his play suggested he would be this good... It was blatantly obvious from day 1

I'm saying his play in the NHL, for people who hadn't seen him in Liiga, didn't suggest he'd develop this well so fast. Of course his team mates weren't the best back then which affected it.

 

[mazmin]

I would side on the side of caution since we have seen some tremendously talented top 2 picks similar in talent to Laine not score 30 goals in their rookie 18 year old draft year. In the range of 8 to 24 goals. From Barkov to Stamkos.

Jeff Skinner 31 goals at 18.

Laine can too.