LW Patrik Laine (2016, 2nd, WPG) XVI

[Plural]

You do know the term "people" is plural, right?

and by removing the context, you made it sound that multiple people were expecting that for this year, which no one stated. No one.

This is also true. Now I'm getting confused. This debate is too semantic for a Finnish speaker to understand. Screw you guys, I'm out.

 

[ItchyScratchy77]

To be fair, "quite feasible" has a pretty strong "it's possible" connotation to it. So, you saying it's quite feasible that Laine scores 76 goals does make it seem like you think it's not only possible, but even likely. I'm not sure if that was your intention and this argument is getting heavily in to semantics and that's pointless. But the wording you chose is not the best.

Quite feasible simply means, quite possible.


How about, likely possible?

 

[Gavy]

To be fair, "quite feasible" has a pretty strong "it's possible" connotation to it. So, you saying it's quite feasible that Laine scores 76 goals does make it seem like you think it's not only possible, but even likely. I'm not sure if that was your intention and this argument is getting heavily in to semantics and that's pointless. But the wording you chose is not the best.

Exactly. ...and now I have multiple posters attacking me because I suggested that some fans temper their expectations.

I fell for it after seeing Matthews score 4 in a game then Laine comes and gets a hattrick against us. I started watching both with the expectation that theyd score every shift (not literally).

I wasn't trying to offend anyone. I'm a Laine fan and I'd just like to have a discussion about one of my favourite players without being attacked anytime I say anything that isn't praising Laine.

 

[Plural]

How about, likely possible?

Or maybe even possibly likely?

 

[Hobby Bull]

Maybe these guys have a Crystal Ball in their basements because they seemingly try twist things to look like there really exist wide spread and heavily supported idea that Laine Scores 76 Goals.

Their tactics is wrong.

They categorically claim it's impossible in any given circumstances. That is something that only those crystal balls can tell to them.

I abstain to quote anything in this kind discussion atmosphere.

That's the point I was trying to make. To make sweeping generalizations based on a few posts out of literally THOUSANDS of posts is obviously a sore-point for me.

 

[BB88]

People said those things in this thread, I said people need to calm down with their expectations if they expect that.
I didn't make up what you bolder but if you can't find those posts, not my problem.

We have 2-3 who love to overhype, let's keep that in mind and even other Laine fans are calling out those predictions.

 

[Gavy]

We have 2-3 who love to overhype, let's keep that in mind and even other Laine fans are calling out those predictions.

I know. I try to stay from generalizing a whole group because Im used to being lumped in with leaf homers who can't see the worth of opposing players when being compared to Leaf players.

If I made people think I thought all of you guys thought he'd get 76 goals or Laine= Lemieu, then my bad.
If you look at my comment history, I'm pretty good at saying " some (insert team) fans" rather than " (insert team) fans"

 

[Snowsii]

His shooting percentage is 25% right now... You really believe this is Laine's new standard?

And your comment about he and McDavid being the kings of the NHL is equally embarrassing. For your own sake, stop now.

You know, that there's been several people with over 20% S in a season

So Laine keeping around 25% this season, isnt really impossible.. (Im not saying he will stay at it)

 

[BB88]

I know. I try to stay from generalizing a whole group because Im used to being lumped in with leaf homers who can't see the worth of opposing players when being compared to Leaf players.

If I made people think I thought all of you guys thought he'd get 76 goals or Laine= Lemieu, then my bad.
If you look at my comment history, I'm pretty good at saying " some (insert team) fans" rather than " (insert team) fans"

During the offseason someone regularly came up here and used old posts against the whole fan base(laine fans) twisting their words like pros.
Nothing against you but I bet someone wants to use those posts against Laine and laugh at him in few months.
I've noticed in Laine threads you have to be extra carefull with words

 

[psycho_dad*]

We have 2-3 who love to overhype, let's keep that in mind and even other Laine fans are calling out those predictions.

And so far those 2-3 who supposedly "overhype" have been the closest to reality in their expectations. And even they have been short.

 

[Plural]

You know, that there's been several people with over 20% S in a season

So Laine keeping around 25% this season, isnt really impossible.. (Im not saying he will stay at it)

Just for fun, I looked up the highest shooting percentages in a season with the following parameters:

-First NHL season
-40 games played minimum
-20 goals scored minimum

The leaders for those parameters are:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...3comp=gt&c3val=20&threshhold=5&order_by=goals

Peter Prucha, Jordan Staal and Patrik Eaves have managed a shooting % of 20 or higher after the 2005 lockout.

So it's not impossible to think Laine ends up around 20% for this season.

If we change the parameters a bit, and look at the highest shooting percentages in a season since the lockout 05:

-All seasons since 2005
-Minimum of 40 games played
-Minimum of 20 goals scored

http://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...mp=gt&c2val=20&threshhold=5&order_by=shot_pct

There has been 18 times for player to reach 20% or higher with those parameter since the 2005 lockout and the highest is 25.2% for Mike Ribeiro.

If we expand to 19% the number goes up to 38.

If we expand to 18% the number goes up to 67.

I think we can all agree that Laine can end up with shooting % higher than 18% and that's not even making any outlandish claims. A lot of players have done it, in fact it happens multiple times a season. And we're talking about 20+ goal scorers here.

Nobody knows what his % will be in the end of the season. But while it's obvious that he's riding a hot streak, I don't think we should be expecting Laine to drop in to 12%-15%. My bet is somewhere closer to17%-19%. Maybe even 20%.

 

[The Cannon of Tesoma]

You know, that there's been several people with over 20% S in a season

So Laine keeping around 25% this season, isnt really impossible.. (Im not saying he will stay at it)

There are no need to shot hundreds and hundreds times if you make goals from those relatively few opportunities you get.

Quantity vs quality -metrics. Quality i.e. Hit accuracy is what is more important, though statistically more shots made generate also more goals.

Goals are what makes the real difference. Not S% percentages or total amounts of shots.

If you score goal when you have good change/opportunity, and pass or make play otherwise when changes are not there, it's obvious your S% percentage stays relatively high.

Laine is genius in how to recognize real scoring changes.

 

[Plural]

And so far those 2-3 who supposedly "overhype" have been the closest to reality in their expectations.

That's the crazy part. I know I've been all over you due to your "overhyping". And let's be honest, you have been making some pretty bold claims in the recent past about Laine. I still don't think you're right in all, or even most of your predictions. But man, Laine has made me eat crow big time and your "insane" predictions are looking more and more like the reality. I don't know why or how you knew it, but in many ways you were right, even when we, the more "pessimistic" posters harped at you.

 

[BB88]

And so far those 2-3 who supposedly "overhype" have been the closest to reality in their expectations. And even they have been short.

No they haven't.
Laine has to prove a helluva lot more before one can honestly say he can hit those numbers.

 

[NikoEhlers]

Once Laine-Scheif-Ehlers has played more games together it will become even more dominant. I think Laine landed the right place, Ehlers and Scheif are amazing players to have on a line when you're a goalscorer. Both genuinly happy and making it easy for him to settle there, it would not surprise me if those three also spends their time off the ice together too.

 

[93LEAFS]

Just for fun, I looked up the highest shooting percentages in a season with the following parameters:

-First NHL season
-40 games played minimum
-20 goals scored minimum

The leaders for those parameters are:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...3comp=gt&c3val=20&threshhold=5&order_by=goals

Peter Prucha, Jordan Staal and Patrik Eaves have managed a shooting % of 20 or higher after the 2005 lockout.

So it's not impossible to think Laine ends up around 20% for this season.

If we change the parameters a bit, and look at the highest shooting percentages in a season since the lockout 05:

-All seasons since 2005
-Minimum of 40 games played
-Minimum of 20 goals scored

http://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...mp=gt&c2val=20&threshhold=5&order_by=shot_pct

There has been 18 times for player to reach 20% or higher with those parameter since the 2005 lockout and the highest is 25.2% for Mike Ribeiro.

If we expand to 19% the number goes up to 38.

If we expand to 18% the number goes up to 67.

I think we can all agree that Laine can end up with shooting % higher than 18% and that's not even making any outlandish claims. A lot of players have done it, in fact it happens multiple times a season. And we're talking about 20+ goal scorers here.

Nobody knows what his % will be in the end of the season. But while it's obvious that he's riding a hot streak, I don't think we should be expecting Laine to drop in to 12%-15%. My bet is somewhere closer to17%-19%. Maybe even 20%.

How many top scorers can consistently stay above 15%? I'm pretty sure the only one was Stamkos when he was playing with St. Louis. Another was Heatley in his peak in Ottawa. Most of the top goalscorers in the post-lockout NHL are continually below 16% (this consists of Seguin, Iginla, Kovalchuk, Ovi, Semin, Tarasenko, Malkin, Crosby, Perry, Kane, Lecavalier, and Nash). To stay at or above 20%, while generating shots at a high rate doesn't seem likely, even staying above 18% is an extremely rare accomplishment, and even if they do it doesn't tend to be repeatable. I would actually think that it is more likely 20 goal scorers do it because they don't shoot at the rate of most snipers. Maybe Laine is similar to the effect Crosby seems to have on OISH% in his early years (where he was constantly above 10%) but I wouldn't state that yet with only 14 NHL games as evidence.

On a related note, does anyone have Laine's actual shooting percentage from last season? I know the Finnish league tracked all shot attempts so the ones posted would be artificially low, so does any poster have what it was going by NHL standards.

 

[psycho_dad*]

No they haven't.
Laine has to prove a helluva lot more before one can honestly say he can hit those numbers.

What numbers?

 

[Snowsii]

How many top scorers can consistently stay above 15%? I'm pretty sure the only one was Stamkos when he was playing with St. Louis. Another was Heatley in his peak in Ottawa. Most of the top goalscorers in the post-lockout NHL are continually below 16% (this consists of Seguin, Iginla, Kovalchuk, Ovi, Semin, Tarasenko, Malkin, Crosby, Perry, Kane, Lecavalier, and Nash). To stay at or above 20%, while generating shots at a high rate doesn't seem likely, even staying above 18% is an extremely rare accomplishment, and even if they do it doesn't tend to be repeatable. I would actually think that it is more likely 20 goal scorers do it because they don't shoot at the rate of most snipers. Maybe Laine is similar to the effect Crosby seems to have on OISH% in his early years (where he was constantly above 10%) but I wouldn't state that yet with only 14 NHL games as evidence.

On a related note, does anyone have Laine's actual shooting percentage from last season? I know the Finnish league tracked all shot attempts so the ones posted would be artificially low, so does any poster have what it was going by NHL standards.

no-one were talking about several seasons.. Just this one, and how it's possible Laine ending with >20%

In the long run, i think Laine will be around 15%

 

[Plural]

How many top scorers can consistently stay above 15%? I'm pretty sure the only one was Stamkos when he was playing with St. Louis. Another was Heatley in his peak in Ottawa. Most of the top goalscorers in the post-lockout NHL are continually below 16% (this consists of Seguin, Iginla, Kovalchuk, Ovi, Semin, Tarasenko, Malkin, Crosby, Perry, Kane, Lecavalier, and Nash). To stay at or above 20%, while generating shots at a high rate doesn't seem likely, even staying above 18% is an extremely rare accomplishment, and even if they do it doesn't tend to be repeatable. I would actually think that it is more likely 20 goal scorers do it because they don't shoot at the rate of most snipers. Maybe Laine is similar to the effect Crosby seems to have on OISH% in his early years (where he was constantly above 10%) but I wouldn't state that yet with only 14 NHL games as evidence.

On a related note, does anyone have Laine's actual shooting percentage from last season? I know the Finnish league tracked all shot attempts so the ones posted would be artificially low, so does any poster have what it was going by NHL standards.

Oh I was merely talking about this season. Laine is not yet generating shots at a pace I would expect he will be in the future. But he has one of the best shots in the league. He's off to a fast start and while I expect his % to drop and hover around 12%-15% for his career, this season is a good bet to be bit higher than that.

When he's more developed and is generating more shots on goal, he's bound to see a decrease in his %.

 

[Bruce Granville]

Oh I was merely talking about this season. Laine is not yet generating shots at a pace I would expect he will be in the future. But he has one of the best shots in the league. He's off to a fast start and while I expect his % to drop and hover around 12%-15% for his career, this season is a good bet to be bit higher than that.

When he's more developed and is generating more shots on goal, he's bound to see a decrease in his %.

I'm not good at math, but if his SH% drops to 20% but he starts to generate 8 shots a game, he might still become a decent scorer, eh?

 

[93LEAFS]

no-one were talking about several seasons.. Just this one, and how it's possible Laine ending with >20%

In the long run, i think Laine will be around 15%

The thing is if Laine's shot generation stays the same he would be the first person to break 20% while generating over 3 shots a game. The only people to stay above 19% while doing this post-lockout were Crosby in (2010/11 which was only 41 games) and Stamkos in 2011/12. Staying above 18% while doing it has been done a total of 8 times but only 5 of the people played over 60 games and no-one has repeated it while playing over 60 games (Stamkos has done it twice, the other being the lockout-shortened season).

 

[93LEAFS]

Oh I was merely talking about this season. Laine is not yet generating shots at a pace I would expect he will be in the future. But he has one of the best shots in the league. He's off to a fast start and while I expect his % to drop and hover around 12%-15% for his career, this season is a good bet to be bit higher than that.

When he's more developed and is generating more shots on goal, he's bound to see a decrease in his %.

Oh, all good. Even at the rate he generates shots currently it is quite rare, as illustrated in my post above. If someone was to break a consistent model like Crosby did for OISH% early on it wouldn't shock me if it's a talent like Laine. I just wanted to look at the numbers more in-depthly.

 

[Plural]

Oh, all good. Even at the rate he generates shots currently it is quite rare, as illustrated in my post above. If someone was to break a consistent model like Crosby did for OISH% early on it wouldn't shock me if it's a talent like Laine. I just wanted to look at the numbers more in-depthly.

We'll just have to wait and see. The cool thing about NHL seasons is that they are so long, so statistical abnormalities stretching over full seasons are quite rare. They happen and sometimes they happen for rookies, but in general predictions, one can follow the numbers to make an informed prediction.

So, it seems that Laine, if he keeps generating 3+ shots on goal per game, will see a decrease in his shooting percentage that's probably going to slot him anywhere between 15%-20%. He's already at 44 shots and at 25%. So, his shooting percentage for this season has bit of "firewall" in it. Then again, he can go on a cold streak and end up scoreless on the next 25 shots.

 

[Ippenator]

We have 2-3 who love to overhype, let's keep that in mind and even other Laine fans are calling out those predictions.

Maybe you also wait until his first NHL season is over, before you loudly claim who has been overhyping, or who just plain don't understand how exceptional player Laine is. So far with what is happening, it would seem like the hypers are closer to being right than the naysayers. But only after his first season is over we really know how good and consistent he is at NHL level in a full 82 game season. This all knowing attitude is truly BS here. Is it possible to say what your opinion is without always mocking the others opinion? Even if it differs very much from yours...

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Funny how people who projected he would score 15 to 25 goals are now jumping on his bandwagon and act like they have always believed in him.

Huh? People like me predicted around 25 goals because it was realistic. And what bandwagon? 25 goals is pretty damn good for a teenager, especially one who's adjusting to the north American style and ice. He's easily exceeded expectations at this point and like all rookies, he's gonna have ups and downs. Right now he's on the up, obviously. When he's on a down I'm sure posters like you will disappear, since this seems to be such a focus of yours.