TheDoldrums
Registered User
I've also noticed how selective Laine is with his shots lately, particularly on the PP. If he doesn't have a clear shot from the left circle, he passes. Other teams are starting to crowd him on the left side, so he's been making nice seam passes or reversing through the point to the other side. When he does take a shot on the PP, it's usually when he sees a clear scoring opportunity and knows exactly where he wants to put the shot.
The Winter Soldier
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I was thinking more along the lines of former 40 goal scorer Jason Blake. Took him 302 shots to score 25 goals one season. 332 shots to score 15 goals another season. Great shot generator with mindless shot selection and little finish. Thank goodness Laine is more selective and has infinitely more talent and finish.
This thread continues to make me cringe...
If Laine continues to play with Sheif I think 40 goals is within his reach. The thing I've liked about his game is he's stopped trying to do too much and has gotten himself in the dirty areas. That's where a lot of his 5v5 production will come from going forward. He's shown an impressive aptitude for tipping the puck with that long reach.
So you chose to compare Laine to an outlier? The only forwards who repeatedly took over 300 shots and scored less than 30 goals are Blake who did it 3 times, and Zetterberg who did it twice.
http://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...comp=gt&c2val=300&threshhold=5&order_by=goals
Flat out, no one generates shots and doesn't convert like Blake who currently plays that way in the NHL, and no one has since 2011. There is the odd case of guys like Evander Kane, who plays similarly to Blake offensively, but most high-end scorers currently shoot below 15% unless they are paired with an elite playmaker (see Martin Pavelski/Thornton). Since the 2012/13 shortened season there have been 8 players who have scored over 35 goals while shooting above 15%, the only people to do it twice are Stamkos and Pavelski.
For example, Ovi shoots at ridiculous rates and has never shot above 14.6% and has a career average of 12.4. Yes, he takes a lot of shots, but I would still consider him an elite sniper even if his shooting percentage doesn't hover around the Stamkos range.
Do or Die
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Need to remember....He has only played with Scheifele, and Ehlers for 3 games. Before that (with Little injured) it was constant line juggles.
In these last games, one could see Laine changing his approach....to take advantage of the situation, with Ehlers speed/zone entry and Schief's play making. Moving more towards the net now and using his size along the boards.....
This line is going to be a lot of fun....well, for Jet fans, anyways
In these last games, one could see Laine changing his approach....to take advantage of the situation, with Ehlers speed/zone entry and Schief's play making. Moving more towards the net now and using his size along the boards.....
This line is going to be a lot of fun....well, for Jet fans, anyways
BB88
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Don't forget Ehlers, beauty of a hit with Laine. There's something special developing on that line and not because of 1 player but because of all 3 players, how they compliment each others game.
It's hist 1st season in NHL rink so there are things he has to figure out and as you said we have been seeing that in the last few games. He keeps it more simple on the neutral zone and they attack with speed.
I know it may sound weird but after watching every Jets game this season I'm interested in seeing what kind of effect will both Myers and Trouba have for that line and their ability to keep scoring.
The Winter Soldier
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WilliamNylander
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I think 50-60 goals is in the realm of possibility this year.
He reminds me of Ovi/Kovalchuk where he just always finds a way to score. Even on nothing plays.
When I watch him it always feels like he could skate better/faster but then he covers so much ice that he's always up on those two on ones and then gets back too. Hard to really critique it.
He reminds me of Ovi/Kovalchuk where he just always finds a way to score. Even on nothing plays.
When I watch him it always feels like he could skate better/faster but then he covers so much ice that he's always up on those two on ones and then gets back too. Hard to really critique it.
Because people were talking about what he could score or what he can realistically shoot on the year. What was your point in bringing up Jason Blake, yet ignoring all the elite shooters who consistently shoot below 15%. But nice job trying to deflect from a valid point.
Trilliann
Tier 2 fan
He said in some Finnish interview, that he just realized he can also score from in front of the net.
I swear I heard 60+ goalies say
I swear I heard 60+ goalies say
The Winter Soldier
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Why are you replying to me then? In a post just above the one you replied to. I said it would be not realistic for anyone to say, Laine to maintain his pace of 64 goals this season.
I made other points about Laine's intelligent choices in shot selection, where someone replied with Tarensenko. Where I tought Blake would be a better example for an elite shot generator but to my point you glossed over was a poor shot selector.
So what is your point or angle here? That Laine will not sustain a 64 goal pace as a 18 year old? No kidding...I think most reasonable posters know this.
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If you watch international hockey NHL product Ovetskin has clocked in few good hours of non-scoring in games that mattered. Even a blind chicken would find the grain every now and then.
Pat Laine has been lucky to play and embrace meidän peli so far in his SM-liiga career in comparison to Purvy who has just played it so far. Laine's strong character should help in the fight against NHL's numerative star cult.
The point is you chose to compare him to the lowest possible person, and a player who no one has had the statistical profile of in the last 6 seasons of NHL play. The closest would be Jeff Skinner and Evander Kane.
Flat out, Laine actually isn't getting shots through on net at that high a rate (Total shot attempts and the rate they get through is probably a bigger factor on selective shooting claims than actual shooting percentage), which would question how much of his shooting percentage is actually being selective. He's getting shots on net at a 57% rate, which is good but around the marks volume shooters like Tarasenko, Ovechkin, and Iginla usually have. I think his shots elite, and that he could finish around where Stamkos usually does, but I don't think it is due to being overly selective.
You clearly enjoy watching stats, I watch the game. Several times a game I think that Laine has an opportunity to shoot and does not. That's why I think he's a selective shooter. Not because I compared some excel spreadsheets to someone like Kane(Who takes 4% shots all day long).
He's also scored on several high % plays(20-40% to score, and that's NHL average), so 25% might not even be that outlandish with that under consideration.
You seem to just be completely unable to comprehend that a shot with 20-40% chance to score and a shot with 4% chance to score is not equivalent when it comes to shot generation, even if both count as "1S" on the spreadsheets.
Just as an example:
"My shot quality research confirms this study as players shoot 30% on average on a pass across the Royal Road vs. the typical 8.5%."
2 of Laine's goals last hat trick were off these. So those were 30% shots. On average. And Laine's no average shooter.
I've seen most of his games. He takes good shots, but I wouldn't say he's overly selective when compared to other high-end goal scorers, which is the narrative some are trying to present his shooting percentage as.
Plus, your the one who always tried to use advanced statistics like Corsi in Laine's favor consistently, even if it was off a single game sample. What happened with that?
The Winter Soldier
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I don't want to get too topic here about what is turning into an advanced stats topic. But to make this very simple. Regarding shooting % and shot generation.
In the game against the Leafs. Out of Laine's 3 goals. A reasonable NHL scorer would have been able to convert maybe 1 out of the 3 goals that Laine was able to score. And I am not even certain the one timer from the top of the face off circle from a moving puck would have been converted by most NHL'ers, I have seen this missed often enough to surmise this. But to be charitable let's say it is converted.
This invariably affects shooting %. 33% compared to 100% on those 3 shots.
Now some may pass this off as luck, but I would say to those, no 3 shots are similar to 2 different players. It certainly isn't for a player of Laine's talents.
You may want to throw out names of reasonable goal scorers, but none has the shot of Laine, which we have already seen is probably the best in the NHL in terms of release, accuracy, and power behind it.
And listen, we are 14 games into a NHL career. I don't think anyone here is suggesting Laine is going to maintain a 64 goal pace. So if your effort here was to calm the waters, I can assure you they were calm already with most reasonable posters.
They were really good for several games, like 10 or so including the preseason. Then he had something like a 3-20 corsi game and it all went down the drain.
What I'm happy to take in return is that he's now managed to score pretty well in even strength.
Yes, he finally started getting the goals he needs to be a good scorer at 5 on 5. I thought his Dallas game was probably by far his most impressive due to this. He was camped out up front using his frame to screen the goalie, and his hand-eye to tip shots, and the other was by driving the net.
His numbers are insane right now, he wasn't as bad at 5v5 as his first 8 or 9 games dictated with OISH%, and its not as good as whats going on with him, Ehlers and Scheifele right now (last week prior to Detroit his 5v5 OISH was around 6% and is now up to 12%, it should settle career wise around 9%, the only player I've seen consistently beat 10% was Crosby).
Laine picks the corners. It either misses entirely or it's in at a really high rate.
What he does is not volume shooting. Cause and effect seem to be mixed for you.
Just last game he had 4 shots on goal - the 3 goals and the shot that caused the rebound for his second goal. They all were extremely high quality scoring chance shots, probably above 50% to score for a player of his caliber.
You rarely see him let the play die "just because" by shooting at the logo.
Neither do the guys I listed, most have or had amazing shots and also tried to pick spots. I know he's not a player like Evander Kane or Jeff Skinner. Not every shot he takes is a perfectly crafted angle, sometimes he just has to put it on net, like Ovechkin does.
But realistically, what do you expect him to shoot on the year? Over 18%? While getting around 57% of shots on target? I'm just saying, I don't think that is likely given the trends of recent goal scorers. He's probably closer to Stamkos than Ovechkin in the types of shots he takes and generation of shots, but the only time Stamkos consistently beat 18% was when he played with a top 3 passer in the league.
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I was just thinking that its really a miracle Laine survived the junior years in Finland. He has been criticised throughput his career because he simply wanted to score goals and be the go-to guy in every team he has played. He was a very selfish player throughout his junior years, and it was really a tough thing to swallow for many coaches, players and parents. (Even he himself admitted that he was very arrogant and probably quite difficult player to deal with).We tried to put him down, time and time again. Still he managed to ignore the crap (with a help of some people) and just did his thing.
And here is the result. Of course it required the two NHL hattricks for the last doubters to shut up, but now there is not one single person in Finland who isnt a fan of Laine. Hopefully case-Laine makes us a bit more open minded in the future for different kind of players.
I'm just wondering how many players our great system has suffocated during the years...
And here is the result. Of course it required the two NHL hattricks for the last doubters to shut up, but now there is not one single person in Finland who isnt a fan of Laine. Hopefully case-Laine makes us a bit more open minded in the future for different kind of players.
I'm just wondering how many players our great system has suffocated during the years...
