Toggle sidebar

LW Kyle Connor - Michigan, NCAA (2015, 17th, WPG)

Status
Not open for further replies.
93LEAFS said:
NHLe is flawed, especially when trying to apply it across conferences in the NCAA. Plus its a raw projection tool that doesn't make an attempt to take in other factors.
Click to expand...

Other factors like the majority of leaf fans can watch every shift Marner takes vs. Connor where unless he's on the big 10 network, highlights is all you can see...

The CCM line is the best line in college hockey, but Marner has more talented linemates and apparently has less to show for it.
 
Dark Scheifele said:
Other factors like the majority of leaf fans can watch every shift Marner takes vs. Connor where unless he's on the big 10 network, highlights is all you can see...

The CCM line is the best line in college hockey, but Marner has more talented linemates and apparently has less to show for it.
Click to expand...
no, its that it makes no attempt at projection, its a raw equivalency. Plus the strength of conferences can shift year to year and non-conference games vs lower competition can't be carried over at the same rate. NCAA offers more problems than any other league when figuring out point values. I'd say the same thing if you said it about Strome or Barzel.
 
93LEAFS said:
no, its that it makes no attempt at projection, its a raw equivalency. Plus the strength of conferences can shift year to year and non-conference games vs lower competition can't be carried over at the same rate. NCAA offers more problems than any other league when figuring out point values. I'd say the same thing if you said it about Strome or Barzel.
Click to expand...

I mean, in order for an OHLer to achieve Kyle Connor's current NHLe, he would basically have to produce at McDavid's level from last season, and that was with McDavid playing on a team that also featured D Strome, Dermott and a potential 1st/2nd rounder this year in DeBrincat (players who have helped made Erie the best team in the OHL this season, without McDavid).

Jets fans should be excited obviously, but NHLe doesn't mean much in the end.
 
TheLeastOfTheBunch said:
I mean, in order for an OHLer to achieve Kyle Connor's current NHLe, he would basically have to produce at McDavid's level from last season, and that was with McDavid playing on a team that also featured D Strome, Dermott and a potential 1st/2nd rounder this year in DeBrincat (players who have helped made Erie the best team in the OHL this season, without McDavid).

Jets fans should be excited obviously, but NHLe doesn't mean much in the end.
Click to expand...

There is plenty of statistical evidence that it is easier to score given equivalent talent and age in the CHL than in the NCAA. You can quibble with the accuracy and precision of the conversion factors, but saying that there is no basis for comparing leagues goes a bit far.

Larkin scored at a 1.34 ppg clip last year at UMich. Given how he's playing at the NHL level this season, do you have any doubt that he would have scored at a higher rate in the CHL? What about Eichel? He scored at a lower rate than Strome in his draft year in the NCAA. I think it's pretty evident that he was a much more potent offensive player in his draft year than Strome. Hanifin was just over 0.6 ppg in the NCAA, and is a solid NHLer this season.

Sure, there are vagaries in the individual circumstances, but the notion that leagues don't differ and that the NCAA is not harder than the CHL to score in at the same age just doesn't have evidence to support it.

I think Connor hit the sweet spot this season in terms of league, linemates, etc. and his point production is likely inflated on that basis. I could see his production going down a bit next season if he stays in the NCAA. But that happens with top end CHLers, too.

Connor's offensive prowess shouldn't be a surprise, though. He was a very high end offensive producer in the USHL, which was a good sign. For what it's worth, one NHL scout commenting on Connor in his draft year (quoted by Hockeyprospect.com):

That's a lot of points in the USHL. For whatever reason it's a tough league to get points. I wouldn't be surprised if he could've put up 100 points in the OHL or Q.
Click to expand...
 
Whileee said:
There is plenty of statistical evidence that it is easier to score given equivalent talent and age in the CHL than in the NCAA. You can quibble with the accuracy and precision of the conversion factors, but saying that there is no basis for comparing leagues goes a bit far.

Larkin scored at a 1.34 ppg clip last year at UMich. Given how he's playing at the NHL level this season, do you have any doubt that he would have scored at a higher rate in the CHL? What about Eichel? He scored at a lower rate than Strome in his draft year in the NCAA. I think it's pretty evident that he was a much more potent offensive player in his draft year than Strome. Hanifin was just over 0.6 ppg in the NCAA, and is a solid NHLer this season.

Sure, there are vagaries in the individual circumstances, but the notion that leagues don't differ and that the NCAA is not harder than the CHL to score in at the same age just doesn't have evidence to support it.

I think Connor hit the sweet spot this season in terms of league, linemates, etc. and his point production is likely inflated on that basis. I could see his production going down a bit next season if he stays in the NCAA. But that happens with top end CHLers, too.

Connor's offensive prowess shouldn't be a surprise, though. He was a very high end offensive producer in the USHL, which was a good sign. For what it's worth, one NHL scout commenting on Connor in his draft year (quoted by Hockeyprospect.com):
Click to expand...
I don't think anyone is saying its equal, its obviously harder to score at the NCAA level, just that the equivalency's are broken. Freshman scoring seems to be at an all time high (Eichel, Larkin, Connor, White and Boeser) even when compared to prior elites like Kessel, Parise, Turris and Toews. While Connor is a great prospect, to get his equivalencies at the OHL level a player would need to score at a rate of Kane in 06-07 or McDavid last year, one who will win the Art Ross this year, the other the best prospect in atleast a decade. Even Tavares a consistent top 10 scorer never had an equivalency that high.
 
Whileee said:
There is plenty of statistical evidence that it is easier to score given equivalent talent and age in the CHL than in the NCAA. You can quibble with the accuracy and precision of the conversion factors, but saying that there is no basis for comparing leagues goes a bit far.

Larkin scored at a 1.34 ppg clip last year at UMich. Given how he's playing at the NHL level this season, do you have any doubt that he would have scored at a higher rate in the CHL? What about Eichel? He scored at a lower rate than Strome in his draft year in the NCAA. I think it's pretty evident that he was a much more potent offensive player in his draft year than Strome. Hanifin was just over 0.6 ppg in the NCAA, and is a solid NHLer this season.

Sure, there are vagaries in the individual circumstances, but the notion that leagues don't differ and that the NCAA is not harder than the CHL to score in at the same age just doesn't have evidence to support it.
Click to expand...

I never said anything otherwise regarding which league is "easier to score in." NHLe generally does illustrate which league is harder to score in vs others if that's what you're trying to get at, but my point was more along the lines that it's erraneous to compare prospects solely on this raw statistic and not consider anything else, and that McDavid example highlights just that. McDavid had a similar NHLe to Connor's current level, if we're going by Dark Scheifele's thought process, but it would be a bit ridiculous if we further suggest Kyle is actually at McDavid's production level or ability. Obviously there are multiple factors affecting Kyle's increased production here. Of course it doesn't have to be just McDavid, another example is that Kyle's NHLe point projection right now is higher than Eichel's point pace in the big league as well. You can pretty much say Connor has the 2nd best NHLe projection total from the '15 draft, behind McDavid's current PPG+ pace.

Point is the stat itself needs a lot more context than simply be thrown around by posters.
 
Last edited:
TheLeastOfTheBunch said:
I never said anything otherwise regarding which league is "easier to score in." NHLe generally does illustrate which league is harder to score in vs others if that's what you're trying to get at, but my point was more along the lines that it's erraneous to compare prospects solely on this raw statistic and not consider anything else, and that McDavid example highlights just that. McDavid had a similar NHLe to Connor's current level, if we're going by Dark Scheifele's thought process, but it would be a bit ridiculous if we further suggest Kyle is actually at McDavid's production level or ability. Obviously there are multiple factors affecting Kyle's increased production here. Of course it doesn't have to be just McDavid, another example is that Kyle's NHLe point projection right now is higher than Eichel's point pace in the big league as well. You can pretty much say Connor has the 2nd best NHLe projection total from the '15 draft, behind McDavid's current PPG+ pace.

Point is the stat itself needs a lot more context than simply be thrown around by posters.
Click to expand...

Yeah NHLE still has a long way to go. I think if they came up with different equivalency numbers for different ages it would be a lot more useful. For example, you get people that dominate the OHL at 20 years old and people call them late bloomers etc. then they never make any NHL rosters. You also get NCAA players who are 22 years old dominating the league and their production doesn't quite translate. It's obviously extremely complex and likely won't happen for a long time but if there were NHLE #s based on position and age and then maybe a way you could factor in overall team production, that would be the ideal way to measure a prospect.

Anyways, what Connor is doing is still extremely significant given that he's so young dominating a league of more physically mature players who are several years older than him. People can argue all they want about Big-10 production not translating but Larkin found a way and I believe Connor is in the same tier as him, possibly higher offensively.

Marner's production is also extremely impressive and while it doesn't show up as highly as Connor's, it is almost equally as rare. Coming from a neutral fan who's seen each guy play, I think Marner is easily the most skilled but that doesn't necessarily translate to most points. Both are top tier prospects and I feel like Connor is slightly underrated (although recently that's been changing quickly) and Marner is slighly overrated (but I do still view him as a top 3 prospect in the NHL). I think Marner is the better prospect than Connor but it is also very close.
 
Who has a longer neck?
maxresdefault.jpg

or
myers_dc1.jpg

or
giraffe_ugandan_tongue.jpg



:P
 
Ya ive always thought Connor and Myers resembled each other with their long necks/pin heads haha... Im happy others do too
 
Connor extends his point streak to 22 games, scoring his 27th goal of the season in the 1st period tonight.

^^^^Gump beat me to the punch! :handclap:
 
Well Connor didn't disappoint, 2 goals in a 7-1 win. He is dynamic in the neutral/offensive zone due to his skating and positioning. Consistently in the right place to make things happen.

His active stick forced a turnover for his first goal, and he got just enough on a one timer to score his second goal on the PP. On the PP he was usually set up on the right half-boards, sometimes drifting to the point.

His passes are sharp and on the tape, very crisp. Attempted a spin-o-rama in the 2nd period, he is creative and takes what the opposition will give. Connor makes the little smart plays, no issues with using his teammates.

My only concern is his play in the defensive zone. Connor wasn't bad by any means, just doesn't show the same tenacity defensively. Very minor complaint though, especially how amazing he is everywhere else. Jets fans should be ecstatic this guy fell to them at 17. He is going to be a superstar.
 
Hehe. I'm not terribly worried about his defensive play in a Red Berensen system. He'll learn defensive positioning and how to play in his own end when he gets to the pros (hopefully next year).
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest posts

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Top Bottom