LW Juraj Slafkovsky (2022, 1st, MTL) Part 3

[Hisch13r]

One positive factor is: It will be only better!

I mean that will probably end up being true but not necessarily. Yak peaked as a rookie. Laf is having his worst season in year 3

 

[Hanji]

Don't want to single out any people in this thread, but it's really funny how many fans default to this idea that every prospect comes from the early 2000s Red Wings, lmao. In fact, Habs brass were still confident in their decision to keep him in the NHL until this very day, and to the contrary of what many will have you believe, Slafkovsky's confidence has not wavered since being in the NHL (this is a big point I will mention again below):

Kent Hughes at his media availability went over some fascinating insight into Juraj's development and why they chose to keep him in the NHL. This is what he said:

-Slafkovsky has a unique set of skills, foundational understanding of the game, and personality. In hockey, the game is so fast and so reactive, that in Juraj's case, they are trying to help him understand how he can be most successful here in North America, and that's not necessarily natural to him right now.

-They believe his development will happen in stages, because they want him playing reactive on the ice, not thinking on the ice. The team had a progression plan for Slafkovsky where he would meet thresholds and then be given additional responsibilities, with the assumption by the end of the year it would crescendo with most responsibility. Slafkovsky was still meeting development goals that were set out for him until his injury.

-They are not worried about the production side of things - they are worried about seeing progress in the areas they want him to improve upon. They believe that in the long-term, if he makes these changes to his game, it will allow him to adapt to the NA style and be the most successful player he can be.

-Habs brass met regularly to discuss Slafkovsky's progress, whether to send him to the AHL, and more. They felt that they kept seeing improvement in the areas of his game they were looking at. They also felt that Slafkovsky was very unique in his confidence levels, and that this allowed him to stay in the NHL and keep showing improvement in key areas. Other prospects don't display the same confidence, and benefit more from being sent to juniors/AHL.

-Again, it has never been about offensive production at this stage. Kent even said they discussed the AHL and the idea that once Slafkovsky hits a threshold, they could send him down for some games to the AHL and all of a sudden the coaching staff and everyone else is expecting him to score, and he's expecting it of himself as well, and it's almost additional pressure than he actually had in the NHL. So they're trying to balance all of these factors, considering there is no one path for any one player, and they like what he's working on in the NHL.

...In the end, Slafkovsky is right on track in progression. Guys with his combination of tools often take some time to develop, and Kent's comments today indicate they believe in their plan to have him in the NHL and that he can continue growing his game in order to become a truly unique, impactful player in a few years. As someone who watched him all season, the improvements are visible and it is true that he is an extremely confident kid. His future is very bright. See you next year!

That plan is a sure fire way to turn him into a 3rd line grinder.

Slafkovsky should be focused on his offensive production at his age; especially for a player who needs time to put it all together.
There’s only a small window of opportunity to develop and refine your natural innate skill-set.

And what are the Habs doing instead? Shoring up a 18-19 year old ‘project player’s’ weaknesses at NHL level; then magically expecting his skill-set to take over once he’s finally comfortable with the NHL game in a year or two?
They’re developing him backwards.

They should have let him marinate in Europe for a season or two.

So stupid.

 

[Hisch13r]

That plan is a sure fire way to turn him into a 3rd line grinder.

Slafkovsky should be focused on his offensive production at his age; especially for a player who needs time to put it all together.
There’s only a small window of opportunity to develop and refine your natural innate skill-set.

And what are the Habs doing instead? Shoring up a 18-19 year olds weaknesses at NHL level; then magically expecting his skill-set to take over once he’s finally comfortable with the NHL game in a year or two?
They’re developing him backwards. How dumb can you be?

They should have let him marinate in Europe for a season or two.

So stupid.

And it’s not like he’s coming in with an elite skill set to fall back on either.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

The top 5 for the 2022 draft was very weak. These prospects basically need the absolute best development to turn into good NHLers. So for Montreal to handle this kid this way, yeesh

I do not forsee him turning out any better than KK

Note to self, do not draft a Finnish forward in the top 5. Kotkaniemi, Kakko, JP, Slaf. Even Laine to a degree has been meh after 2 good seasons

It seems like the last one who reached potential was Barkov. Rantanen did as well, but he wasnt top 5

Not sure what this has to do with Juraj Slafkovsky but thanks for sharing

 

[Egresch]

The thing, he's really not that ''offensive''.

Not an elite shooter.

Not an elite passer.

Doesn't have elite vision or hockey sense.

Everything is kind of just OK to good.

But hey, he's big!!!

I fear he'll be like Lawson Crouse at best. 20-25 goals. 50 points.

You are right, but we knew that his skills are still raw. There are three things that are elite with Slafkovsky- size, attitude and personality. He is one of the most coachable kids I remember. Of course, his lower hockey IQ will be the limiting factor, but I still see him developing into beast player in 22 (elite 2nd line W, something like Nichushkin in COL).
Btw, it took Crouse till D+4 season to have similar stats as Slaf has now.

 

[Mackiaveli]

There’s only a small window of opportunity to develop and refine your natural innate skill-set.

 

[mattihp]

That plan is a sure fire way to turn him into a 3rd line grinder.

Slafkovsky should be focused on his offensive production at his age; especially for a player who needs time to put it all together.
There’s only a small window of opportunity to develop and refine your natural innate skill-set.

And what are the Habs doing instead? Shoring up a 18-19 year old ‘project player’s’ weaknesses at NHL level; then magically expecting his skill-set to take over once he’s finally comfortable with the NHL game in a year or two?
They’re developing him backwards.

They should have let him marinate in Europe for a season or two.

So stupid.

So true. To this day I still wonder where a wizard like Mikael Granlund had been if he had not met Mike Yeo. The filthy things he could do against pretty darn good defenses in the world champs..

 

[Rockomax]

View attachment 637753

Nothing works in absolutes. Thompson is not the norm. Although it's possible that Slafkovsky follows a similar trend, it isn't all that likely. Of course, it's super early and he has looked good for short spans of time, so it's not all bad. Overall, it's not looking too great either though.

 

[SenzZen]

View attachment 637753

Green: D+1 season
Red: D+2 season

 

[JohnLennon]

I don't necessarily agree with the deployment or strategy fully , but pouring it on now is stupid - he is a raw 18 year old who almost nobody expected to be a true impact player until 21-22.

There's still a lot of time , lots of examples of big guys taking time to develop, even some who played NHL long before they were good NHL players , we need to wait.

Those saying "hughes ruins prospect who woulda thought?". Might be seeing "counting a player out at 18 too early? Who woulda thought?" In a few years time.

A lot of it will also be on the player , I still firmly believe that the actual player has a lot to do with their own development not just the organization. If he gets better, he will become a solid player, and if not, he won't. The player's work is not over when they get drafted and suddenly it's all up to their org to "develop" them. If someone is truly gifted and hard working enough they will overcome bad management, and likewise if a player isn't good enough nor willing to work, no "development plan" will make them a star

Making definitive statements about an 18 year old prospect before he has 40 games under his belt is a surefire way to identify how people understand prospect development.

View attachment 637758

Green: D+1 season
Red: D+2 season

It's actually kind of funny that you identified that, because if we are going to be stat-watching: he showed no improvement in his D+1 year in terms of production while still in college, and his D+2 year in the NHL was still worse than Slafkovsky's D+1 year.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

You probably shouldn't be trying to use extreme outliers as your shining star for a prospect. Most players aren't Tage Thompson. Just like just because the Blues went from worst to winning the Cup in 2019 doesn't make that a sustainable way to win a cup. I do think it is silly saying Slaf is a bust though. He just hasn't had a good D+1 season.

 

[JohnLennon]

You probably shouldn't be trying to use extreme outliers as your shining star for a prospect. Most players aren't Tage Thompson. Just like just because the Blues went from worst to winning the Cup in 2019 doesn't make that a sustainable way to win a cup. I do think it is silly saying Slaf is a bust though. He just hasn't had a good D+1 season.

I agree. People want to refer to past examples to prove their point but eventually you get to both extremes of cherrypicking.

The one and only truth I think we can all agree on is that it is much too early to predict where Slafkovsky's career will take him, and it is much too early to definitively say whether this year's approach was the right one or not. There are fair arguments on either side. Heck, Habs staff said this themselves yesterday.

The news he is hurt is neither a victory lap, nor an indication of how he was handled. Frankly, it was just a freak injury by an AHL player. Let's give Slaf a few years before we start to see how he does. Most prior top 3 picks took a few years as well, whether it was in the NHL immediately at D+1 (Slaf, Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Rasmus Dahlin) or took 1-2 years before hitting the NHL (Owen Power, Miro Heiskanen, Matty Beniers).

There truly is no one singular development path for all players, nor is there one singular timeline.

 

[Mackiaveli]

You probably shouldn't be trying to use extreme outliers as your shining star for a prospect. Most players aren't Tage Thompson. Just like just because the Blues went from worst to winning the Cup in 2019 doesn't make that a sustainable way to win a cup. I do think it is silly saying Slaf is a bust though. He just hasn't had a good D+1 season.

FWIW I am not trying to say Slafkovsky is like Tage Thompson.

I am just saying making outrageous blanket statements about 1st year rookies is foolish when there is ample evidence to show that it is just not true

Another - a great offensive talent who took a few seasons to piece it together.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

You probably shouldn't be trying to use extreme outliers as your shining star for a prospect. Most players aren't Tage Thompson. Just like just because the Blues went from worst to winning the Cup in 2019 doesn't make that a sustainable way to win a cup. I do think it is silly saying Slaf is a bust though. He just hasn't had a good D+1 season.

I think the players that don't improve after 18 are more likely outliers.

Yes, not everyone is going to be a Thornton or Thompson, but they are just as unlikely to be a Yakupov or Lafreniere (who I still think its a bit too early to write off). Players all develop in different ways,

At the end of the day each player is unique, but I think in any case its far too early to say one way or another if he has been improving or developing. He could come back next year and look like a new player, or he could look the exact same. People said the fylers rushed Couturier and were making the same "he missed his development window" argument for why he would never become a capable offensive player, his career high was 39 pts until he was 26 and then he rattled off b2b 76 pt seasons.

 

[Favster]

Big boys with average skating don't dominate or even produce at the NHL level. Relax

 

[Wats]

Making definitive statements about an 18 year old prospect before he has 40 games under his belt is a surefire way to identify how people understand prospect development.


It's actually kind of funny that you identified that, because if we are going to be stat-watching: he showed no improvement in his D+1 year in terms of production while still in college, and his D+2 year in the NHL was still worse than Slafkovsky's D+1 year.

Tage did improve his numbers in D+1 stat wise though. Went from 2nd in team goals/points to leading team in goals/points and making WJC team. In fact that's the only year until NHL he was putting up top goal scorer type numbers. Makes you wonder how much that season helped him grow to become today's player.

 

[57special]

So true. To this day I still wonder where a wizard like Mikael Granlund had been if he had not met Mike Yeo. The filthy things he could do against pretty darn good defenses in the world champs..

Too bad he was a sub par skater, and had the strength of a 14 year old girl. Don’t think Yeo had anything to do with that. MiG was given #1 PP and top 6 TOI almost from the start unlike guys like Nino, Zucker, and Haula, who rode the bench and played bottom six for years.
Granlund simply wasn’t strong and fast enough to play effectively in the NHL as a young man. Rossi appears to be having the same problem.

 

[jfhabs]

People acting like a 18yo is a finished product in this thread while also mentioning he was known to be very raw and should've played liiga/ahl ... quite ironic.

That draft didn't have elite talent upfront, but I still think he's a lock to be a top6 player down the road. Top line, maybe not, we'll see.

You can tell many people here have an agenda and just want to be 'Wright' haha

 

[MichaelFarrell]

Strange comparison, Marchenko has more than twice as many goals and only one less point in 19 less games. Marchenko is scoring at a pretty absurd rate. He has one of the highest shooting percentages in the NHL on the worst team in the league. 9g in 21 games.

But yeah, technically he has one less point.

It was just a half joke (notice the “lol” at the end of my post). Obviously Marchenko is the better player at this point

 

[SenzZen]

It's actually kind of funny that you identified that, because if we are going to be stat-watching: he showed no improvement in his D+1 year in terms of production while still in college, and his D+2 year in the NHL was still worse than Slafkovsky's D+1 year.

Big players take longer to get up to speed in the NHL. The NHL also isn't the only place for them to develop. I think we can say with the benefit of hindsight, the league that is not at all about development was probably not the best place for Slafkovsky this year- even before this injury news.

I'm just trying to show that there was more development going on with Thompson than what the poster I quoted was showing. But you can infer my agenda to your heart's content.

 

[kabidjan18]

Tage Thompson is a bad example because he isn't with the team that drafted him. Neither is Alex Tuch. Neither is Lawson Crouse. None of these are good examples.

Burning his ELC and FA year at 18 when he can't contribute at all to a team that has no shot of winning anything is dumb. You don't want him to develop into a great player only to go to another team via free agency. What good is it for you as a Montreal fan if he becomes a star for another team? By playing him so early, you speed up the time he hits RFA and UFA. If he actually turns out to be good, you suddenly have a bidder problem and likely a cap problem too. You build a good team by having as many value contracts as possible, this is not the move.

 

[Gainesvillain]

He doesn't, hasn't really watched Slaf play all games this season, just stat-watching.

And besides, saying that Slafkovsky hasn't improved at all or been stagnant is a fallacy.

He has learned to be harder on the puck along the boards, to make plays a little faster and with more direct intent offensively, and Slafkovsky has also learned to be better defensively...

I'm not stat-watching at all. I couldn't care less about his point totals this year. Other than a few PP stints that wasn't his role.

When all is said and done I didn't see any material progression in Slafkovsky's game this year. Yes there may have been some microscopic improvement But generally he was the same player at the end of his season as he was in the beginning.

My experience in reading GDTs and post game analysis was that my fellow habs fans tried very hard to pump his tires and accentuate every positive they saw. But I really think people are kidding themselves If they believe they saw any significant progression in his game. It was a stagnant season, and in a few years when the "shiny new toy syndrome" has worn off, it will be looked back upon as a "lost" season

 

[Gainesvillain]

I do not forsee him turning out any better than KK

Same.

In the history of 1OA NHL picks has there ever been a player with a lower hockey IQ than Slaf?

 

[GlassesJacketShirt]

I'm not stat-watching at all. I couldn't care less about his point totals this year. Other than a few PP stints that wasn't his role.

When all is said and done I didn't see any material progression in Slafkovsky's game this year. Yes there may have been some microscopic improvement But generally he was the same player at the end of his season as he was in the beginning.

My experience in reading GDTs and post game analysis was that my fellow habs fans tried very hard to pump his tires and accentuate every positive they saw. But I really think people are kidding themselves If they believe they saw any significant progression in his game. It was a stagnant season, and in a few years when the "shiny new toy syndrome" has worn off, it will be looked back upon as a "lost" season

I'm with you, I thought the development strategy was questionable at best, but I'm still hopeful something can be salvaged.

 

[dustybreaks]

Same.

In the history of 1OA NHL picks has there ever been a player with a lower hockey IQ than Slaf?

Yakupov.