Osakahaus
Chillin' on Fuji
- May 28, 2021
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So why did the habs even let him play this season? should've just let him chill in the AHL and develop the north american game.
LW Juraj Slafkovsky (2022, 1st, MTL) Part 3
- Thread starter GermanSpitfire
- Start date
kk87
Registered User
Feels similar to Kotkaniemi in the sense that a high quality player that was probably closer to a 10-15 OA talent, had his stock inflated late in the season and then had to navigate the pressure of being an extremely high pick in a huge hockey market. I'm sure he'll be a good player, but hard to imagine a typical 1st overall trajectory as a realistic target.
Yea we drafted 1st in a really bad year....He will be a good player but not a dominant force. The other choice was Wright and I don't think a big market like Mtl would have been good for his development, seems to have attitude issue. Let's just hope we don't play the Leafs too much till the end of the year so we will stop winning.
Canadienna
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- Jan 27, 2015
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I feel like I lost some braincells reading this.
Was Slaf NHL ready at all? No. He looked terrible.
Why are you comparing Matt Martin and Barclay Goodrow to a guy selected first overall? They have roles. What role does Slafkovsky do well in? Is he a strong penalty killer? Does he shut opposing lines down? Does he fight? Is he a strong possession player? Please tell me what part of his game is "NHL ready."
Jeff Molson care more about selling season tickets than anything else. The habs fans did not want to see their new shiny toy leave Montreal. Using Slaf to promote the season ticket and make them forget about last season.
Same problem as the last 10 years. Montreal have a hard tiem developing top 3 drafted player. Every single players from the 2023 draft are playing in the AHL or the juniors.....
Isn't he injured for over two months? I do agree would be best to play in AHL for rest of the season when he comes back.
Differences are there that need to be considered. Those guys don't have their elcs being wasted or their confidence potentially brought down. They also had time to physically mature so they could perform better.
NJDevilsFan21
Trade Everyone!!
- Nov 10, 2006
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Assuming the Devils do nothing at the TDL and Habs are ready to give up on him (which is silly, but let's just say not confident in him), I offer 2023 1st (top-10 protected, meaning if our season falls apart we don't make this trade) + Holtz + Foote/Bahl this offseason for Slaf. He's exactly the type of player we need and will be put on a better development curve in NJ. Holtz is also a PP specialist the Devils need, but he finds himself in the opposite situation in NJ - needs to get more time - and likely gets it on the Habs.
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Goon42
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- Apr 12, 2013
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Breakfast of Champs
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- Apr 15, 2007
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yeh, what is there to discuss? He played like an 18 year old being forced to play in the NHL and now he is injured; not much else to it.
Jukurit
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- May 16, 2022
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I don't think it's similar. Kotkaniemi wasn't even ranked top 20 in McKenzie's pre-season rankings. He was drafted 3rd overall. Slaf was ranked 4th on pre-season rankings. 3 players ranked ahead of Slaf were Wright, Miroshnichenko and Lambert who all had disappointing draft years. So I think big reason why Slaf was drafted #1 overall was because other top players from this draft had disappointing draft years. So it was a weak draft at the top.
I was fine with Slafkovsky going 1OA. But, I do think big guys take longer tends to get exaggerated. Barkov broke out in year 3, while playing center. Matthews and Laine were both big guys who hit the ground running in year one. Drai broke through in year 2 and exploded in year 3. Eichel was pretty high-end in year 2. B. Tkachuk was a good player in year 1. I don't really see much evidence that leads me to believe post the crackdown on obstruction in 05/06, that bigger top picks tend to take longer to break out or deserve a longer leash. Sometimes they get better, but I don't think Dylan Strome for example deserved more patience than Marner because he was taller/bigger.
Now, this isn't knocking Slafkovsky. He has the talent to figure it out, and this wasn't really a strong draft to be picking 1OA, no player in this draft was a tier 2 level prospect (the tier behind the McDavid's and Crosby's, so the Matthews, Dahlin, Eichel, MacKinnons of the world). But, I don't think being big is why he deserves more patience. In most years he's a guy who might be pushing for second overall but likely goes between 3-5. Great players get drafted between 3-5 all the time (Makar, Marner, Draisaitl, B. Tkachuk in recent years). He deserves patience like J. Hughes and Kakko got, obviously Montreal fans are hoping it turns out more like the former.
Yeah, Wright's stock imploded from where it entered the season. Slaf was high on lists from Hlinka on (which really is the kickoff event to scouting season). I also don't think what applied in the Kotkaniemi case applied here, if it did they would have taken Wright or Cooley. Which is teams that high in the lottery are desperate for a franchise center, to the extent they may grossly over reach for the best center left on the board. Same thing happened with Barret Hayton in the Kotkaniemi draft. Now, sometimes that risk is very costly, teams will lose sleep over passing on Brady Tkachuk, Coyotes and Canadiens likely aren't losing sleep on passing over Zadina and those two were essentially split down the middle for 3/4 behind Dahlin and Svechnikov.
I'd argue the KK pick was a an ok gamble. Report from Montreal suggest he refused to work on the things they asked him too (body/core strength and skating). He never really progressed to this day outside of physicality. He was a pretty good 18 years old.
Fairly certain you have no idea how you lost your braincells, if they ever existed to begin with. But it clearly occurred long before you read my post.
Why? Because you used the term "NHL ready" as evidence for Slaf's "failure", expecting him to come in and be a superstar. That's not what "NHL ready" means. Which you still clearly don't understand even after it's been conclusively explained to you.
You are completely gaslighting the scouting and gaslighting what is expected of NHL prospects and gaslighting Slafs actual performance on the Ice this season. You are flat out insisting on things that aren't even true. And your expectations in general are farcical, comical, preposterous, ludicrous.... I can keep going with the synonyms until there's one you understand if need be. Especially expectations for a 6'3, 230 pound 18 year olds. It's like you are a newborn babe, and this is your first draft, and you're all excited and you;ve heard about these players all year, being talked up. But you don't yet know, that's not how it works. Players generally don't come into the league and dominate. They generally don't even come into the league at 18, let alone burst out of the gate.
. Montreal isn't competing this year. They know that, the fans know that, the NHL knows that. They are literally in last place in their division. His "role" is irrelevant. His experience is the issue. He's being given exposure to different situations that he'll be dealing with in the future.
Now, I;ve already stated he probably could have benefited for more time at a lower level where he'd be getting more minutes. But he's being given exposure to an array of situations that he'll be seeing in the future. Getting acclimated to the NHL game, the speed, playing against that kind of talent. And learning how to grind. Because "grind" lines, are a misnomer. Every damn line should be a grind line. The best players "grind" no matter where they are playing. He's learning to be physical against grown men and he's shown very effective at times. Again, he can handle the NHL game, the lowest common denominator, which is all "NHL" ready means. Which is why I brought up those players. Who are in the NHL, yet they don't necessarily produce, because they aren't playing in a top 6 role with the best players, or they just don't have the talent.
How ridiculous. Seriously lol. I can't stop laughing at your expectations and insistence. Whether the Habs made a mistake or not developing him this way is a completely different matter. But he's very obviously "NHL ready". And your perception of the sport itself, how its played, roles, paths to development, all seems rather one dimensional, shallow. Things aren't as clearly defined as you make them out to be. Players fulfill many roles on the ice. Some are more focused in certain areas, some are more well balanced.
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There are examples of guys who did it younger, but they seem to be, overall, outliers.
And in Laine's case, I'm going to say it doesn't count lol. Here we are years later and that was probably his best season. He's the Benjamin Button of NHL career development. He just gets worse as he gets older it seems.
But all prospects deserve patients.
And Dylan Stromes problem was never development, it was his inability to skate and snail like pace .The same thing that's held back Lafreniere to an extent.
And I'm not suggesting all of them take 5 years to develop or 4 years ,like Thompson or Jaime Benn or whomever. But from 18-to reaching player potential, for a guy like Slaf, is very likely at minimum a 3 year journey. Not to reach his prime even, but just to get up to top 6 proficiency I would think.
Those guys are later picks even if still in the first round like Thompson, you could apply the same argument to say Braydon Point not breaking out until his d+4 and becoming a true superstar in his D+5, Tyler Johnson, or Jonathan Marchessault, etc. I don't think you get a disproportionate amount of outliers who are bigger taking longer in the modern NHL. Jack Hughes took until year 3 in the league to explode. Like, I don't think there is much evidence among top 5 pick forwards since the obstruction crackdowns in 2005/06 who are big taking longer and should be given more grace development-wise, than any other young prospect. I heard the same stuff applied to guys like Puljujarvi too if you want another example. I don't think there is much demonstratable evidence that top 5 picks have differing development curves based on size. For positions, that is obvious, defenders take longer than forwards, and centers tend to take longer than wingers. Like PLD is another big guy and was a pretty valuable center in his d+2. Like, who outside of Blake Wheeler (a huge project and viewed as a reach at the time) among top 5 picks who entered the league really points to big forwards taking longer to break out and become stars? Maybe, RyJo? JVR if you are loosely using the term star. Barkov maybe, but he was pretty decent at 18/19, and broke out as a legit franchise center at 20.
I'm not saying write Slaf off or anything, just like I wouldn't say write off Hughes, I just believe that for whatever reason there is this myth that these big guys take significantly longer and deserve more grace than say a Jack Hughes. Like, most of the 6'2+ 200+ guys taken in the top 5 in recent memory who became stars had pretty typical development curves (Matthews, Eichel, PLD, B. Tkachuk, Draisaitl), and of the slightly shorter but stocky varieties you have guys like Landeskog.
Perhaps. I always thought that role maybe has something to do with it to. Powerforwards. Learning to play all facets of the game perhaps, who maybe correlate with bigger bodies. I mean there's freaks like Ovi. Sure. Bu t guys like Brady, Svechnikov, like they might not be producing at their prime until like 26, 27. Where a guy like Hughes in his 4th year might be putting up some of his best cumulative totals already. And the impact I suppose is relative to the prospect and their individual level.
But, just learning how to grind, play physically, play D, impose your will and then pivot that into still maintaining an offensive and transition game. And then doing it from the wing also, which is probably a bit different than doing it from center. Feel like sometimes maybe by the time they've done all that, and worked on their offensive, it takes a bit longer to all come together for most. Pretty much all centers have to at least learn to play D and transition game, how to grind, but not always necessarily for wingers. So maybe there is a difference there also. And I think as we see, even bigger centers, or power-centers lets say, seem to have a different development curve often.
Crosby for instance, his best season, statistically, were mostly in the first 1/3 of his career. So maybe its more than the career development curve is a bit different in its progression. Unless you are like Ovi.
Like take Matthews. He started out as just about the highest level of prospect. So sure, he was effective from the get go. But he's gradually getting better, increasing his output as he matures. 2021-22 was technically his first 100 point season, but he would have hit 100 in 20-21 if not for the shortened season. So that would be his 5th year in the league. Compared to McDavid, who hit 100 and kept going since his 2nd season. Or again, Crosby.
If we look at like Dubois, Draisatl, and others that have already been pointed out, the career curve seems to take longer to reach their prime. Rarely out of the gate are they having their best seasons. Anyone from Thornton ,Getzlaf, Svechnikov, Brady Tkachuk, the latter who's reached ppg now in his 5th season. And as a player on the ice, I think finally putting it all together. Added that offense to his physical, powerfoward game. His brother Matt, same thing, 5th year finally putting it all together. Um, JT Miller comes to mind. Definitely took him time to put it together. Zibanijad and Wheeler both as well. The latter who really didn't start to show that high level of play until his 5th season. And many of these guys seem to start off playing a more physical and defensive game and then as their scoring increases, they have to find a balance, which often will result in like hits, PIM etc... coming down as points go up. Matt Tkachuk is a good example of this.
Pavelski is interesting, because while he's not actually very big, he plays a powerforward game. And obviously he didn't even break out until relatively late in his career, like 26, 27. Look at Konecny now that he's put it together finally, took him a while. He's around the same size as Pavelski, but I'd say plays bigger than his size. Plays a more physical game.
Beniers to me is kind of an outlier. It's rare for a guy to come into the league already a relatively complete player. Not a huge dude, but certainly plays I would say as a powerforward, and an all around complete center. Which makes him a relatively unique case.
Guys who are significantly offensive focused, perhaps thrown out there earlier, put in offensive situations more, and who have less overall to focus on. Like Jordan Kyrou let's say. Who after two very short stints in the NHL, was at a PPG his first full season basically. Jeff Skinner, right out of the gate. Of course had his share of problems with consistency. But yea. Zegras, Raymond pretty much hit the ground running. Panarin, Pastrnak, Marner, Ehlers, Nylander etc.
So maybe it's more the type of player, the role, which in this case, happens to correlate with bigger bodies, either in height, overall mass, or both. But a physical play style along with offensive production. Or maybe it's a combination of both. It would be interesting to see an actual cohort study on the issue.
Yea. Usually teams will keep guys up that aren't AHL eligible but that also are too good or wont gain much from going back to Jrs or a foreign league. In this case it's kind of strange since Slaf is AHL eligible.
You would think they would take advantage of that. I guess now with the injury though, he will get some time in the AHL after recovery. Honestly, I do hope now that he's gotten some NHL experience, they won't rush him back, make sure he's healed fully, and then maybe they;ll have him finish out the year in the A.
But I think he proved to most at least, that he is NHL ready and can be put in if need be. The rest now is a matter of development. He can physically, emotionally and mentally handle the game at the NHL level. Which honestly, for many prospects, is a huge hurdle in itself. So just to have gotten that out of the way now, I think maybe he personally can focus on his own development and doesn't have to be nervous or wondering about how he'd fair against grown men in the best league in the world. He's stood his ground, and that's a good foundation for confidence towards the future. But maybe a bit of sheltering wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.
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Nylander is having his career year in his d+8 season. But, as pointed out, most of the big guys who were elite didn't have atypical development curves compared to smaller players. Like, you should generally focus on cohorts of prospects. Trying to apply the development curves of guys outside the top 10 to top 5 picks, is going to get atypical results. Power forwards historically used to take long, and burn out fast. Like, most of the top 5 guys you are talking about were clear legitimate top 6 players within 2 years of their NHL draft date. Like, atleast the big guys who panned out and met the expectations of them of when they were drafted. Zegras wasn't in the NHL until his D+3 season, Marner didn't explode to a 95 point player until his D+4 season. Both Nylander and Ehlers have taken sizable steps forward in the last 2 years. Panarin wasn't in the NHL until he was 24, after going undrafted twice. Patrick Kane had his Hart season in his 9th season. When you enter the league is less important than how far removed you are from your original draft date. But, outside of Wheeler, when you look at the big guys who were top 5 picks who became legit stars, most were productive top 6 forwards within 2 years of their draft date, and most were clear first liners by 3 years from their draft date. That applies to pretty much all of Matthews, Eichel, Barkov, Draisaitl, both Tkachuks (although Matt was drafted 6th although was universally viewed at 5), and Svechnikov. Some bigger guys may take a bit longer to hit peak, but most who lived up to sky-high expectations were on a similar path. Even guys who may not be stars but went top 5, but are highly valued NHLers like PLD were solid top 6 players at 19/20. Just outside the top 5, guys like Rantanen were legit stars in their d+3 season. Going further back you could add Malkin, Kovalchuk, and Ovi to the list. This is a pretty similar to development curve to guys like Stamkos, Tavares, Seguin, Taylor Hall who are all average sized and become stars at points in their careers. MacKinnon had a weird one where he was a legit 1st line level player when used as a winger in his d+1, but struggled with the responsibilities at center the 3 years after (but was still playing at a 2nd line center level) then exploded in year 5, Big lanky guys had serious issues in the clutch and grab era, which impacted Thornton. Getzlaf had a fairly normal development curve for a a mid-first rounder who becomes a stars. I think the bigger difference among a lot of the highly drafted guys you mention who are big, is that center is harder to breakout offensively at early on, more than size.
As for Slafkovsky, I do think he should have either been given permanent middle-6 minutes with PP opportunities with no fluctuation to see what they had at the NHL level, or he should have been in the AHL or Sm-Liiga. And, guys like Draisaitl had rough D+1 years at the NHL level, and bounced back in his D+2 to be a legitimate top 6 player, and advanced from that to being a star the year after. But, I think if the hope it he turns into a Mikko Rantanen or Brady Tkachuk level force, you would hope to see him as a clear top 6 player next year, and a clear first line talent the next. Even if that doesn't happen, it doesn't mean he can't be an exception, or that he can't be an NHLer of value but not a true star, but the typical development curve of the top 5 picks who live up to expectations has been fairly similar over the past 15 or so years.
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JohnLennon
Registered User
- Mar 26, 2011
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Super small sample size, but seeing how Fantilli and Carlsson are performing during the World Championship makes you appreciate how much of a tear Slafkovsky went on in the lead-up to his draft.
Fantilli 6 GP 0-2-2
Carlsson 6 GP 1-2-3
...While playing with better players, and then you have Slaf:
Slafkovsky 8 GP 3-6-9
His international play (18 pts in 19 GP in OG/WC) truly was an interesting and uncommon boost to an otherwise mostly-average season in Liiga, and that paired with an uncharacteristically weak draft made for a really unique draft year and a wide-open top of the draft class. So interested to see how these guys develop over the next few years.
Fantilli 6 GP 0-2-2
Carlsson 6 GP 1-2-3
...While playing with better players, and then you have Slaf:
Slafkovsky 8 GP 3-6-9
His international play (18 pts in 19 GP in OG/WC) truly was an interesting and uncommon boost to an otherwise mostly-average season in Liiga, and that paired with an uncharacteristically weak draft made for a really unique draft year and a wide-open top of the draft class. So interested to see how these guys develop over the next few years.
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I feel like even this year, if he had put up a similar performance he'd start making sense from 5-10.
I'd still quite easily pick Carlson, Fantilli and Michkov ahead, but after that you start to wonder.
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