LW Arthur Kaliyev (2019, 33rd, LAK)

[McDNicks17]

His production, and the concerns that have been brought up about him reminds me of Pavel Brendl.

There's a vast difference in the success rate between top u18 goalscorers in the WHL and the OHL.

WHL.

OHL.

 

[AmericanDream]

It’s his questionable IQ and skating. And no, you pretty much can’t become an elite skater if you have pretty bad skating at 18. Of course you can get better, but major changes are really hard to make.

I like him as a prospect, but the guys in the top 15 are way more capable of making it big in the NHL than him.

he doesn't need to be an elite skater to be a star NHL player and his IQ is not questionable.

 

[Jormungandr]

He reminds me of Alex Galchenyuk. Awkward as all hell skating stride, but he gets around just fine.

 

[ChicagoHockeyFan]

He may not be the best skater but his size and shot will make him at least a player, he’s gonna score goals at any level because his shot is just too good

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

It's always funny when people say x prospect reminds them of x player of the same nationality.

Why does it have to be the same nationality? Bizarre

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

He's going to be the guy that people are kicking themselves for not taking in the top ten for this draft. That list above speaks for itself.

Has all the fixings of Debrincat 2.0

 

[Josepho]

He may not be the best skater but his size and shot will make him at least a player, he’s gonna score goals at any level because his shot is just too good

He's going to be a really good fit with a quick, playmaking center. Vancouver and Edmonton seem like the teams in his range that fit the bill the best.

Stick him in his office and he'll put up lots of points. Interesting PP option since he can both serve as a trigger man from at the bottom of the circle on the right side and go in front of the net if needed.

 

[Jormungandr]

It's always funny when people say x prospect reminds them of x player of the same nationality.

Why does it have to be the same nationality? Bizarre

He reminds me of Galchenyuk because Galchenyuk plays for one of the two teams I watch most. Get your head out of your ass.

 

[Pass the Saitl Sauce]

He's going to be a really good fit with a quick, playmaking center. Vancouver and Edmonton seem like the teams in his range that fit the bill the best.

Stick him in his office and he'll put up lots of points. Interesting PP option since he can both serve as a trigger man from at the bottom of the circle on the right side and go in front of the net if needed.

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If the oilers keep winning like they are and fall back a bit I wouldn’t hate this pick in the 7-10 range. Hope to god he’s capable of improving on his skating like draisaitl did cause this guys offensive numbers are just gaudy

 

[57special]

There's a vast difference in the success rate between top u18 goalscorers in the WHL and the OHL.

WHL.

OHL.

Interesting. Wonder if this is just coincidence, or that there is an actual reason for the discrepancy between the two leagues?

 

[alcolol]

Sport Testing Combine Showcases On and Off Ice Strengths – Sherwin-Williams CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game

I won't argue that skating isn't one of Kaliyev's weaknesses, but it's not well below average. He finished within the top-3 of a couple on-ice tests for the CHL combine.

 

[Andy Lehoux]

Here's a shift to shift from Kaliyev if anyone wants to have a quick look at his in-game performance. This is only one game, so don't put to much stock into it.

#34 vs Sarnia - January 27th 2019 - 2 goals, 9 shots performance :


There is a reason why most independent scouting agencies have Kaliyev rank lower than the consensus among fans. There is simply to much red flags. He does have an amazing shot, a quick release and some slick hands, but his compete level is at all time lows. He looks disinterested to defend or even take part of the zone breakout. He's the last to forecheck, backcheck and get into any kind of physical battle. It's so frustrating to watch Kaliyev, because you know he's got so much talent, but he just seems uninterested. Although he has weird stride, his skating is not bad, he's simply not competitive enough to get to top speeds. His game will be really tough to translate to the NHL as he already got a lot of difficulties in junior. That said, he's still a great prospect and deserve to be get drafted quite high, just maybe not in the top 10 or top 20 like many would want to. I know it's fun to look at his incredible stats, but there is so many other prospects with great potential that should get as much if not more hype than him. Just on top of my head, other prospects with great stats, yet much more complete games, are Cole Caufield, Alex Newhook and Bobby Brink just to name a few.

I really hope Kaliyev develops into a great player at the pro-level, because he certainly got the talent to. Will be interesting to follow his development over the next couple of seasons.

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

If he falls in the draft I hope Dallas picks him up. We’re a team that has passed on talent for intangibles far to many times and look where it’s gotten us. We’ve got tons of third and fourth liners.

 

[mphmiles]

Not saying he's going to be anywhere near as good, but from a purely offensive stylistic standpoint, I can see how he would remind people of Debrincat. From watching the video of all 50 of his goals, he loves that short to intermediate off-wing, (Basically, from the back door of the crease to the center of the face off circle) and he does the vast majority of his damage there, just like Debrincat does.

However, obviously Debrincat's big question mark was his size- not his compete level. Pretty much everyone said from the beginning that Debrincat was the most relentless competitors on the ice at every level he's ever played at.

 

[VikingAv]

Interesting. Wonder if this is just coincidence, or that there is an actual reason for the discrepancy between the two leagues?

If the stats had been for just like the last 5 years or something, I could believe it was just a coincidence, but because it spans over such a long time, I don't think it is.

 

[mphmiles]

IIRC it's gotten a lot better in recent years, but didn't goaltending have a pretty bad reputation in the WHL and QMJHL compared to the OHL over the last couple decades?

 

[AmericanDream]

Here's a shift to shift from Kaliyev if anyone wants to have a quick look at his in-game performance. This is only one game, so don't put to much stock into it.

#34 vs Sarnia - January 27th 2019 - 2 goals, 9 shots performance :


There is a reason why most independent scouting agencies have Kaliyev rank lower than the consensus among fans. There is simply to much red flags. He does have an amazing shot, a quick release and some slick hands, but his compete level is at all time lows. He looks disinterested to defend or even take part of the zone breakout. He's the last to forecheck, backcheck and get into any kind of physical battle. It's so frustrating to watch Kaliyev, because you know he's got so much talent, but he just seems uninterested. Although he has weird stride, his skating is not bad, he's simply not competitive enough to get to top speeds. His game will be really tough to translate to the NHL as he already got a lot of difficulties in junior. That said, he's still a great prospect and deserve to be get drafted quite high, just maybe not in the top 10 or top 20 like many would want to. I know it's fun to look at his incredible stats, but there is so many other prospects with great potential that should get as much if not more hype than him. Just on top of my head, other prospects with great stats, yet much more complete games, are Cole Caufield, Alex Newhook and Bobby Brink just to name a few.

I really hope Kaliyev develops into a great player at the pro-level, because he certainly got the talent to. Will be interesting to follow his development over the next couple of seasons.

so he is nearly identical to Patrick Laine which I have been saying all year long...I doubt Laine would still drop out of the top 10 after people have watched his compete level and disinterested play away from the puck. when these guys are on, they are world beaters - you draft them ASAP and deal with their crap as it comes. what they are excellent at you just cannot teach.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

so he is nearly identical to Patrick Laine which I have been saying all year long...I doubt Laine would still drop out of the top 10 after people have watched his compete level and disinterested play away from the puck. when these guys are on, they are world beaters - you draft them ASAP and deal with their crap as it comes. what they are excellent at you just cannot teach.

I think Kaliyev's weaknesses are too over-emphasized, but Laine has an 80 shot. Kaliyev has a good shot, not anywhere near as good as Laine's.

 

[AmericanDream]

I think Kaliyev's weaknesses are too over-emphasized, but Laine has an 80 shot. Kaliyev has a good shot, not anywhere near as good as Laine's.

I think their shots are pretty damn close to one another..we have gotten to see 3 NHL years of Laine so of course he is still the better shot/player, but Kaliyev's shot is one of if not the best in this draft - 50 goals as a 17 year old puts him in elite company.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

100 points.

 

[MichaelFarrell]

Has anybody in recent memory put up the numbers he has in the CHL and was projected to go late in the 1st? I haven’t watched him play, but his stats look like what you would see in a top 5 pick.

 

[Leon Draisaitl]

Has anybody in recent memory put up the numbers he has in the CHL and was projected to go late in the 1st? I haven’t watched him play, but his stats look like what you would see in a top 5 pick.

DeBrincat and Goldobin. They were both 6+ months older though.

 

[MichaelFarrell]

DeBrincat.

Great example. I can’t belive I didn’t immediately think of that. I know he fell due to his size. But, Kaliyev has good size and clearly is a great goal scorer. I’m not sure what has caused Kaliyev to not be ranked at least top 10.

 

[McDNicks17]

Has anybody in recent memory put up the numbers he has in the CHL and was projected to go late in the 1st? I haven’t watched him play, but his stats look like what you would see in a top 5 pick.

He's currently 4th(behind DeBrincat, Tavares and Stamkos) in goals and 14th in points-per-game for an u18 season in the OHL in the last 20 years.

Kyle Wellwood(5th round) is the only guy ahead of him in PPG who didn't go higher than 6th overall.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

so he is nearly identical to Patrick Laine which I have been saying all year long...I doubt Laine would still drop out of the top 10 after people have watched his compete level and disinterested play away from the puck. when these guys are on, they are world beaters - you draft them ASAP and deal with their crap as it comes. what they are excellent at you just cannot teach.

The description bears some similarity to the way Pavel Brendl played.

I haven't watched Kaliyev in a while, but the reports remind me of Big Bear Brendl. The last time I saw Kaliyev, I thought his play without the puck was serviceable -- better than Brendl. That said, he never created much on his own and seemed to be more of a passenger on his line. Brendl is a worst-case scenario for any player whose only positive attribute is his shot.

Pavel Brendl: The Ridiculous Story ("Hot dogs and wieners is the best food for me.")

Brendl scored 73 goals, 134 points in 68 games in the WHL during his draft season.

High-rated juniors on ice in WHL final : Canucks pick first, third or fourth but won't send extra scouts to Kamloops-Calgary series.
BYLINE: Elliott Pap
SECTION: Sports; F2
LENGTH: 612 words
The Vancouver Sun (British Columbia)
April 29, 1999, FINAL

...

Brendl is a 6'2'', 200-pound right-shot left winger who led the WHL in scoring during the regular season, collecting 73 goals and 134 points. A native of the Czech Republic, he is the first rookie to ever capture the WHL scoring title. Brendl, 18, also leads all playoff scorers with 19 goals and 41 points in 16 games.

...

As far as Brendl is concerned, his assets appear to be his hockey sense and an ability to finish. He is not considered an exceptional skater or an incredibly hard-working player without the puck.

''The knock against Brendl is that he can't skate well but he skates fine, he just hasn't had the desire to do it,'' said Nonis, sounding an ominous note. ''He knows where to go without exerting himself at that level. Whether he can beat someone one-on-one with pure speed, it remains to be seen because he doesn't have to do it.

''In the offensive zone, he knows where to go and he's always moving. He's not moving fast but he knows where the net is and when he gets an opportunity, it's usually in the net. In the defensive zone, he hasn't had to be great because his team is so strong.''

...

Scouts watching Czech phenom: Brendl on stage at the Memorial Cup: [Final Edition]
Spencer, Donna. Expositor; Brantford, Ont. [Brantford, Ont] 18 May 1999: B3.

...

"I think at the start of the year, we made jokes that he had to go back and introduce himself to (goaltender) Alexandre Fomitchev because he didn't know who he was until Christmas," said Hitmen coach Dean Clark. "But I think he's really improved that part of his game. It still needs some work, but the guy was still a plus-68 and our top plus- minus player."

Defensive play can be taught, but goal-scoring can't, so it isn't likely a bottom-feeding NHL team would let Brendl get away, said Chainey, who compares Brendl's goal-scoring ability to that of Ducks star Teemu Selanne.

"His hands, his wrist-shot, his accuracy is phenomenal, his anticipation also. He knows when to go between the two defencemen. He always trails in the neutral zone a little bit, finds the open ice and bang, he's gone. . . . He's got that real special dimension to be a real sniper and that's very rare right now."

...

Tim Panaccio: For the Flyers, Czech prospects fall from favor
BYLINE: Tim Panaccio Inquirer Columnist
SECTION: SPORTS
LENGTH: 994 words
The Philadelphia Inquirer
March 31, 2002 Sunday

...

You're probably wondering where that leaves Brendl, who can play right wing and center, but remains a bit of a puzzle.

"He's had some good stretches and some not-so-good stretches," Holmgren said. "He's a work in progress."

Again, Clarke was more direct.

"It's a concern with me," Clarke said. "Brendl has more ability than any player right now in the AHL. Unless he figures out that he has to work hard every single game, he won't make the NHL.

"He's improved a lot. All my years in this organization, we built around guys who worked hard. It's hard for me to see this. I watch him and I think to myself, 'Why don't you just work harder? You'll be an NHL player.' I'm not sure he understands himself. He has to figure it out."

According to those who were there, Clarke made sure Brendl understood where he was coming from when he told the 21-year-old last week: "I've got your number on speed dial."

...

Brendls shot is one of the best I've ever seen. It is probably top3 all-time in SEL.

When he was playing for both Mora and Brynäs you knew that once they got a powerplay there was only one guy that you had to make sure couldn't shoot but it didn't matter, he would still score with his slapper anyway. His slapshot was so hard and accurate that it wouldn't matter if the goaltender could see the puck, it was still almost impossible to stop it.

One of Brendls problems was that he usually didn't have to work that hard - he would score his goals anyway because of his ability to shoot the puck alone. It sometimes felt like that he was so aware of that he would score goals that he didn't have the urge to fight to score once he had the opportunity to do so when he had to work for it. He was also a bad skater and hated to play in his own zone, that is why he was a minus -17 in two season despite scoring 112 points in 108 games (which is fantastic for SEL).

It is tempting to play with the though of Brendl playing with Malkin and Crosby on Pittsburghs powerplay, I actually think he could have scored well over 35 goals in that environment a few years ago solely based on how good his shot was.

Pavel Brendl had the best release of any prospect drafted during the dead puck era for my money. Including all the names you're thinking about right now. What he did not have was elite skating, elite conditioning, or a desire to work on any of his weaknesses provided he was filling the net. He was consistently overweight at the start of camp, disinterested unless he was playing with the NHL club, and a borderline pariah in the dressing room considering his skill level to work ethic. I remember when Carolina gave him a chance and watching him compared to Jeff O'Neill it was like ..... one of these guys scores 30 every year and and hit 40 once and it's not the guy you'd think from watching them practice. Brendl is still one of the few guys that I can say I have seen beat goaltenders consistently with unscreened wrist shots. There was just no way to tell when the puck was coming off because his release was so sneaky. There exists zero doubt in my mind that Brendl would have had the ability to score 40 goals a season even in a time when that meant a lot more. The 2003-2004 Carolina Hurricanes were literally one of the worst offensive hockey teams in the history of the sport and he posted 5 goals in 18 games when given his only legit shot to stick around in Carolina. Sadly, he would suffer an injury on a hit from Bryan McCabe if I remember and separate his shoulder and ending his season and effectively his NHL career.

The poster boy for talent vs. work ethic. He should have been great.