Anth93
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- Jul 2, 2012
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LW Anthony Mantha - Val d'Or, QMJHL (2013, 20th overall, Detroit)
- Thread starter Marc the Habs Fan
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Wolverine Wings
#thankyoubasedgod
Are things already getting sour between our two teams? Because Kadri is an overrated bum.
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I don't think Tatar, Nyquist, Jarnkrok or Jurco will bust.
That's 4 top sixers right there.
Not so sure about Mantha. I also have high hopes for Athanashiou, who is probably the best skater in our organization next to helm
You can say that, but we've heard it before. At every step of the way, somebody says "Detroit's prospects are going to be busts, wait and see!" But they said that before the Griffins won the Calder Cup with the prospects leading the way. Now the goalposts are moved; it's not "your prospects won't make the NHL," but "your prospects won't be GOOD in the NHL."
I think I'll just keep watching the prospects myself. They seem to be doing a damn good job so far.
Woodtkachuk
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- Jun 2, 2011
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NuxFan09
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InjuredChoker
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The Zetterberg Era
Ball Hockey Sucks
That would be the big thing, we want to hear about how engaged he is, we know the skill set is in place. Want him playing more direct and physical, if he scores 100 plus points on the outside with 50 goals again but the consensus is he is hanging out on the outside and not competing every shift then I am going to be a little disappointed.
Having read all the camp reports it is good that Mantha looks like he will be heading to the WJC, but have to ask why Athanasiou isn't getting more run for team Canada? Actually expect Athanasiou to have a better year in juniors to be honest, really only a month apart in actual age.
17 SOG in two games, if he keeps up that pace he could easily score at a goal per game pace.
OrangeAndBlackMetal
Dark Wizard of the Black Cascade
Love this kid. Wanted the flyers to trade up and draft him, and honestly wouldn't have minded if we grabbed him instead of Morin. This kid is going to be a very good player for the wings in the future.
If he averaged 8.5 SOG/game (which he almost certainly won't), he'd probably be better than a goal per game when you account for his excellent release as well as the Q's traditionally weaker than average goaltending.
Also the Q's well above average Anthony Manthas. No other league boasts Anthony Manthas of this quality.
Yes, a quick statistical analysis shows that the OHL and WHL host better goaltenders.
Granted, a league's stats page doesn't tell the whole story, but there's a considerable imbalance going from the WHL/OHL to the Q.
A more credible source, such a Pronman, has corroborated this, though I'm sure his reasoning is far more in depth than my own.
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So you are comparing their stats from one league to another? There are so many factors that could go into why the goalies stats are lower or higher (Also I'm pretty sure the Q's stats are better this year so far anyway). It could have things to do with style of play, like how physical the game is or how many teams trap, where the shots are coming from, how good of defenceman/forwards are in the league etc.. Just look at the last few Memorial cups. The Q is usually in the top 2 for goaltending there while many of the other goalies have their stats come down. You can also look at someone like Makarov, brought in as an import to Lewiston, didn't win the starters spot and beat out by a journeyman. He was released and then went to the WHL and increased his save percentage from .890 (was 24 in S% and 25 in GAA) to .913 in one year (Would have made him #2 in the q that year). I know he probably got better but there really is no way to compare the goaltending in the leagues by just looking at stats. The best and way to view this comparison would be if the leagues played each other regularly which they don't. And you know what, maybe the q does have weaker goaltending but to say there is a considerable gap is just wrong.
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You're right in saying there're many factors that can influence something like a save percentage. The WHL, for instance, is recognized as more of a defensive league, so that could be a factor, for example. Consider the OHL though, which by and large produces far more than the Q, by way of offensive players.
Looking at the first few games this season isn't as telling as the last 5 seasons as a data set (which I took 2 or 3 minutes to do).
The Mem Cup, again, isn't a particularly compelling set of data. No doubt, that all top teams likely have good goaltending. Looking at 60 teams, as opposed to 4, is more telling.
Maybe I could've used a word like "fair", or "notable" as opposed to "considerable". Mere semantics, I suppose.
Anyway, I've no doubt there are many variables (like the ones you mentioned) affecting this stat. There's of course more than just that stat. Still though, I invite you to expand your analysis beyond a handful of games and an annual four team tournament.
What I am saying though is that there is no real way to make a conclusive finding that one league is considerably better than the others or that they are all equal without them playing each other and using this data. Looking at the league data is not much help because all the leagues are different and there are factors that may affect the stats. Is it more likely that the OHL and WHL have more depth in goal? maybe because they are drawing on a MUCH larger area than the Q is (Look at the US territory as an example). But I really doubt that the starters or even most backups you will see in the Q are obviously worse than the ones in either the O or the WHL. I do agree that the Q has had a recent dry spell in making super high end goalies but I don't think that is an indication that the overall product is much lower than the other two leagues. Of course there will be strong and weak goalies in Q but that is what happens in every league.
Also, I am excited to Mantha this year. Seems like he is using his size better than last year, he could really be a force if he keeps this up all year.
It's not even so much about producing star goaltenders, as it is about the overall quality of goaltending in a league. But you're again right in saying there are so many factors of style of play etc that'd determine a stat like save percentage.
Though I still think the overall goaltending quality is better in the WHL/OHL, perhaps, for the sake of discussion, I could say "Due to Mantha's exceptional shot (and the fact that he's getting lots of shots off, thus far) and the fact that Q goalies consistently have lower save percentages, I expect Matha to have a monster year". That, I trust, we can agree on.
The only objective way to compare junior goalies would be to see what league graduates the most players to the NHL. The Q definitely isn't last in that regard.
That's not at all objective. There may well be a disparity between a leagues best goaltender, and the rest.
In the study of statistics, we'd call that a sample. In order to be objective and more rigorous, we need to look at what's called the population, or all relevant parts. In this case, it's all goaltenders in the CHL over the last number of years (maybe for the sake of the Mantha discussion it could be since he's been in the CHL, for example).
What is objective though, is to look at the percentage of how often goalies stop shots. You can do this for one year, or the last 5. You'll find the Q is lower. Again, this says nothing of variables, such as style of play etc. All I'm saying is that when you look at that, combined with Mantha's offensive gifts, that he's likely to hone them even further throughout the season, he is positioned to score lots of goals.
Don't want to turn this into a W vs. O vs. Q debate. Will only go as long as it helps understanding Mantha's numbers a bit better.
Although I will conceed that the OHL deserves all the credit it deserves. No matter how you flip things over the OHL comes up as the better CHL leagues in pretty much all aspects. The WHL and QMJHL are basically the same. That said, the difference between all 3 is marginal at best.
Also, the WHL tends to be over-represented at the draft and the QMJHL undervalued. That is, at equal draft rank the QMJHL players tend to play more games taking into consideration the position of the player.
That said, I agree the Q goalies haven't been as good overall as the other leagues. However, there's a pretty big caveat in using only SV% to measure the goaltending quality. QMJHL refrees call more penalties and give more PP time to teams than they do in the WHL. All else being equal, SV% while being SH is obviously much lower for goalies than it is at ES.
That said, as for Mantha's numbers. There's always adjustments to be made. All in all, Mantha's numbers have been legit no matter how you flip them. Put him in the WHL and he still would score goals. Might not be 50, might be more than 50, could be less but the difference between the 3 leagues is marginal when you consider everything.
Even though Halifax isn't representative of the whole league and teams making it to the Memorial Cup aren't always a picture perfect representation of their league strength. Over the years, teams have showed that there's really not that big of a difference between the 3 leagues if any. Halifax kept scoring goals like they did in the Q.
Although I will conceed that the OHL deserves all the credit it deserves. No matter how you flip things over the OHL comes up as the better CHL leagues in pretty much all aspects. The WHL and QMJHL are basically the same. That said, the difference between all 3 is marginal at best.
Also, the WHL tends to be over-represented at the draft and the QMJHL undervalued. That is, at equal draft rank the QMJHL players tend to play more games taking into consideration the position of the player.
That said, I agree the Q goalies haven't been as good overall as the other leagues. However, there's a pretty big caveat in using only SV% to measure the goaltending quality. QMJHL refrees call more penalties and give more PP time to teams than they do in the WHL. All else being equal, SV% while being SH is obviously much lower for goalies than it is at ES.
That said, as for Mantha's numbers. There's always adjustments to be made. All in all, Mantha's numbers have been legit no matter how you flip them. Put him in the WHL and he still would score goals. Might not be 50, might be more than 50, could be less but the difference between the 3 leagues is marginal when you consider everything.
Even though Halifax isn't representative of the whole league and teams making it to the Memorial Cup aren't always a picture perfect representation of their league strength. Over the years, teams have showed that there's really not that big of a difference between the 3 leagues if any. Halifax kept scoring goals like they did in the Q.
Thank you. Well-written. I definitely agree with you on the OHL being the most quality Canadian junior league.
That's interesting to note about the penalties. One of a possible host of reasons as to why Q goalies have lower save percentages.
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