LW Anthony Mantha - Val d'Or, QMJHL (2013, 20th overall, Detroit)
- Thread starter Marc the Habs Fan
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Could you imagine how many points Mantha would put up if he had a guy like MacKinnon to play with? Or Ehlers?
johnnystormcgy
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The Zermanator
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And went 3rd overall. Mantha outscoring him this season.
That helps, too.
The Zermanator
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Okay, was outscoring him until a few days ago. Still basically equal in PPG. But the point still stands, Drouin went 3rd overall.
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canucksfan100
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SimplySolace
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The Zermanator
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Are you saying more goals are scored in the WHL or that it's easier to score in the QMJHL? Either way I don't think the separation between the 3 leagues is nearly as large as some people think. They do all compete for a championship and there are individual awards for players that are chosen from all 3 leagues. That would't happen if there were large disparities in difficulty level.
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No actually I read it as there are less goals scored in the Q, meaning it's harder to score.
SimplySolace
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Here's my original post awhile back:
New data shows he's right:
QMJHL - 3,563 goals (18 teams) = 197.94 GF/Team
OHL - 4,155 goals (20 teams) = 207.75 GF/Team
WHL - 4,570 goals (22 teams) = 207.72 GF/Team
New data shows he's right:
QMJHL - 3,563 goals (18 teams) = 197.94 GF/Team
OHL - 4,155 goals (20 teams) = 207.75 GF/Team
WHL - 4,570 goals (22 teams) = 207.72 GF/Team
On average WHL teams have played more games (QMJHL 59.4 games, OHL 58.8 games, WHL 62.3 games).
So if your calculations above are correct, then the goals per team per game are below. No difference between Q and W, with the O about 6% higher.
QMJHL - 3.33 GF / Team / game
OHL - 3.53 GF / Team / game
WHL - 3.33 GF / Team / game
So how do people see Mantha's career track playing out? One year in the AHL then on to Detroit? Two years in the AHL? Can he make the wings next year? Quite the log jam in front of him
detredWINgs
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Exactly. If things hold up, Detroit got what is essentially a top 5 pick while still keeping their playoff streak alive at 22 years.
detredWINgs
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He almost certainly will not make the Wings next year. He'd have to tear up the AHL with more than a PP/G for a sustained period of time to get the call, and even then, if his two-way game is Ovechkin-esque, it might not even happen.
The Wings brass puts a ton of stock in AHL production. The last player to bypass the AHL was Zetterberg, and he was the calder runner-up, a solid two-way guy as a rookie, and already strong on his skates once he entered the NHL. That was 12 years ago - a time when the Wings were so stacked with future HHOFers that adding a rookie was almost a non-factor.
All you have to do is look at the elongated AHL careers of Hudler, Filppula, Tatar, and Nyquist to see that the Wings are loathsome to promote guys even when they have great AHL numbers.
Literally the only thing Mantha has going for him presently is his size. While his Q numbers are incredibly encouraging in a general sense, they will quickly mean zilch to the Red Wings organization if his transition to the AHL is subpar.
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Right, but the implied point is supposed to be that good CHL numbers generally translate into solid AHL numbers. Plus, I'm sure the Wings were relatively pleased with how he did at the WJCs, and I don't think they're ignoring Mantha's Q numbers. It's not like it's the same as if he had only 50 points in the Q right now.
If we're talking about "going for him" in the sense of attributes like size... I'd say he's got size, speed, a blistering shot, and a bit of a mean streak too. He's also shown a surprising amount of consistency for a guy who got hammered for it before the draft. If all he had was size, we wouldn't be having this conversation. He wouldn't have even been drafted...
Now, does all that stuff matter if he can't play pro? No, of course it doesn't. But the point is supposed to be that those things indicate that he can play pro. That's always been the point of flashy junior numbers. They indicate that a given player can score at a high level, and so it seems a reasonable bet that Mantha has a lot of scoring ability that could translate to the pros. That's about as far as prospect analysis can take us—a reasonable bet.
I'm not really sure why you're picking on Mantha like this, honestly.
I don't see it as "picking on Mantha" as much as being realistic about the way the Red Wings do things. He isn't going to be penciled in on next season's roster before training camp starts, and he would have to be EXTREMELY impressive in camp/preseason to stick with the Wings to start the season.
They will put him in Grand Rapids to see how he adjusts to he pro game before calling him up to the NHL. To the Red Wings, his numbers, as great as they are, don't necessarily mean anything until they see how he does in their system and see if he can do everything they want an NHL player to do
Mantha seems like a guy who could be on a faster track to the NHL in the Wings system, if he can carry solid production form the Q to the AHL next season, but there are guys who will be ahead of him that he needs to beat out to see NHL ice time next year. Not saying it is impossible for him to make the team next year, just that it isn't likely.
Some Wings fans agree with everything the organization does and will claim the young guys aren't ready and need at least 1.5 years in the AHL to adjust, and some fans think the Wings are silly waiting and that it hurts the Wings and the prospects keeping them down too long and re-signing too many old vets. My opinion is just that, it is what it is and it is the way the Wings do things. I think Nyquist and Tatar were both down a year too long, but whatever. We'll see.
You can't possibly say Filppula had an elongated AHL career, he played one full season in Grand Rapids, and then 3 games the next season before being promoted to Detroit full time. Filppula was an exception to the rule they typically follow with guys like Hudler and Tatar. Plus Hudler and Tatar were rare exceptions who were able to play in the AHL at age 18 immediately after they were drafted, so they played a lot of time in the AHL because they started in the AHL so young. Even Nyquist is an exception to the rule that guys stay down too long, because he saw a lot of NHL time his rookie pro season and only really saw AHL time last year because of the lockout. We all know he should have been up in the NHL full time this year, but Holland signing too many guys forced him to the AHL due to a log jam. The most Nyquist played in a single AHL season is 58 games, and he has been a regular in the NHL playoffs the last 3 seasons.
Jurco is possibly proving to be an exception too, with one full year in the AHL and getting an extended look this year in his second pro season due to impressive play.
Like I said in my last post, it isn't impossible to crack the Wings roster with minimal AHL time, but it is hard to see Mantha not playing at least 1 full season in the AHL.
None of those situations are comparable Captain Bob, not sure why you felt they were relevant
newfy
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With his play this season and at the world juniors I could see him getting good call up time next season, but play the majority in the AHL. Hes a massive Canadian, Babcock will love that.
A strong post season could really help with this and if he keeps showing a bit of this mean streak hes been having lately as well he could get a look. Hes not really comparable to any of the Tatar or Nyquist types because they were all so small and Tatar was so young when he started in the AHL
A strong post season could really help with this and if he keeps showing a bit of this mean streak hes been having lately as well he could get a look. Hes not really comparable to any of the Tatar or Nyquist types because they were all so small and Tatar was so young when he started in the AHL
detredWINgs
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Picking on Mantha? I love the kid. But this is the Wings we're talking about. They aren't going to hand him a roster spot even if he has a spectacular camp. They just won't.
ricky0034
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yeah Jurco is a much better comparison really,except Mantha's bigger and better
Jurco struggled for a while earlier in the year last year so he didn't see any time with the Wings but this year he was having a great year and he's seen a lot of time with the Wings
it all depends how long it takes Mantha to do well in the AHL really,he's not gonna make the Wings out of camp no matter what but if he hits the ground running on the Griffins I wouldn't be surprised if he spent half the year in the NHL
