Speculation: Luongo Trade Discussions Thread - All

[ErnieLeafs]

Explain

It means we didn't blow valuable assets and strap this team to a contract + cap hit that cripples us down the road.

Pretty self explanatory

 

[alcanalz]

Switching things back to Luongo discussion here.

I'm genuinely surprised by how many people are against us making a (fair value) trade for Luongo here - one that doesn't compromise our future.

The benefits of landing him far outweigh the negatives.

Firstly - SPOILER ALERT; we need a goalie. In getting Luongo, you are getting one of the league's best. The school of thought that suggests that Luongo coming in would be bad for Scrivens and/or Reimer is baffling to me. I like Reimer - anyone who has seen the guy's interviews, knows just what a genuinely nice, well rounded, and polite kid he is. OF COURSE we want him to do well.

But do people really have hope in Reimer? I can't help but feel that it's a little misplaced; that it's less that people have HOPE in Reimer, and more that people HOPE that Reimer can do the job. Big difference. Would be a great story if he could. I'm not convinced, personally, that either Scrivens or Reimer will ever be elite goaltenders in this league.

What's Reimer's upside? I'm not quite sure - but what I am 99% sure, is that it won't ever be an elite-level goaltender. Reimer's name will never be on par with a Carey Price, or a Ryan Miller, or a Lundqvist, Quick, etc etc - goalies that have the elite tag in the NHL. The truth is, without elite goaltending in this league, you aren't going to win a cup. You need that sort of goaltending. Reimer won't provide that. Scrivens certainly won't - 26 year old who has stumbled into the backup positions largely because the organization has run out of all other options.

In my honest opinion, Reimer and Scrivens have done nothing to suggest that they will ever become elite goaltenders in this league. This team has had average goaltending in the past. We don't need more of it.

On the age of Luongo - yes, he's old at 33. What gets me though, is how people seem convinced that we will only get 2-3 years out of him. My two issues with that complaint:

First - want to know what's interesting about 2-3 good years out of Luongo in a Leaf uniform? It'll be 2-3 years of elite goaltending that the team hasn't had. In like 8 years. And won't get from Reimer or Scrivens. People are talking about getting 2-3 years out of RL as if it's a bad thing, when in truth, many fans probably can't even remember the last time we got solid goaltending.

Second - his age. So, he's 33. Is there a rule somewhere that says that an older goalie can't do well in the league? Apparently there was a 40+ year old netminder that played in the Stanley Cup final last year? Not sure if you guys caught that.

Kiprusoff?

Tim Thomas?

Martin Brodeur?

Dwayne Roloson?

Chris Osgood?

Hasek?

Plenty of goalies have played, and continue to play, well into their 30s/close to 40s.

2-3 years might be a conservative estimate for Luongo, but there's no reason he can't give this team 4 or 5 years of solid goaltending. If he looks after himself, and remains focused, why not? Others have. Innumerably. There's no reason to suggest that he can't.

For me, the course of action is obvious - GET Luongo. Of course though, make sure it's a reasonable price. If Gillis is being foolish in his asking price, then you have no other option than to backdown and steer clear of it.

But there is no way that this team can go into the season with both Scrivens and Reimer as their goaltending tandem, and reasonably expect to do well.

It's the risk in acquiring a long contract, especially with goalies. You are putting yourself in a position to be handcuffed for years. Look what happens to Philly, they're already unimpressed with Bryzgalov's play after year 1 of what, 7? 8? There's an inherent risk factor in acquiring a goalie long-term, one who has never played for your team or in your system particularly.

Maybe he does well the whole time and it's no problem. Maybe he starts trending downwards after a year or two. It's risky.

 

[G51 K81*]

It means we didn't blow valuable assets and strap this team to a contract + cap hit that cripples us down the road.

Pretty self explanatory

This.

The trade actually makes no sense when you think about it. We acquire an aging goalie and Vancouver keeps the younger and apparently less talented goaltender. If we give up any young assets Schneider would 100% need to be coming back. Vancouver keeps there "better" goaltender (Luongo) as they are in a win-now mentality, and everyone is happy.

Unless Vancouver fans having been lying to us and Luongo isn't as good as they said he is. Hmmmm...

 

[4evaBlue]

First - want to know what's interesting about 2-3 good years out of Luongo in a Leaf uniform? It'll be 2-3 years of elite goaltending that the team hasn't had. In like 8 years. And won't get from Reimer or Scrivens. People are talking about getting 2-3 years out of RL as if it's a bad thing, when in truth, many fans probably can't even remember the last time we got solid goaltending.

It's not the first 2-3 years that's the issue, it's the last 5-7.

Second - his age. So, he's 33. Is there a rule somewhere that says that an older goalie can't do well in the league? Apparently there was a 40+ year old netminder that played in the Stanley Cup final last year? Not sure if you guys caught that.

Kiprusoff?

Tim Thomas?

Martin Brodeur?

Dwayne Roloson?

Chris Osgood?

Hasek?

Plenty of goalies have played, and continue to play, well into their 30s/close to 40s.

I love how the same 5-6 names are tossed around as some proof that goalies over 40 are all but guaranteed to shine. There are more goalies who either retired before they hit their 40s, and/or didn't have much success in their last years. The odds are against him, and his contract could burn us really bad down the road.

An over the hill goalie with a NTC on the cap for $5M+ for the next 5-7 years, who says he wants to play? What do you do with him? Muskoka 5 saga all over again?

 

[Dwight K Schrute]

David Booth getting an MRI on his groin... they don't know how serious it is. Creates the need for another forward if it is serious

 

[4evaBlue]

If Luongo wants to go to Florida, what's keeping TB out of this potential deal with Van?

Cap space. They simply can't afford him.

 

[jrgtml67]

David Booth getting an MRI on his groin... they don't know how serious it is. Creates the need for another forward if it is serious

good timing now they would really need a bozak or a kulie etc....quiet on twitter and hockey buzz today f-in bs....

 

[Tak7]

We have all our picks and young players like we should!

And we still have a mediocre team with below average goaltending - having all the youth and talent in the world doesn't mean anything if you can't keep the puck out of the net.

Perhaps the time to acquire a goaltender isn't now, but later. Hard to ignore value of goaltending help to a young, up and coming team.

We still have Gardiner.

Will never be included in a Luongo deal

 

[pspot]

not that it matters but Cox said he wouldn't give anything to acquire Lu

I think he's right and Gillis needs to bite the bullet....if anyone will literally take Lu

 

[Tak7]

It's not the first 2-3 years that's the issue, it's the last 5-7.



I love how the same 5-6 names are tossed around as some proof that goalies over 40 are all but guaranteed to shine. There are more goalies who either retired before they hit their 40s, and/or didn't have much success in their last years. The odds are against him, and his contract could burn us really bad down the road.

An over the hill goalie with a NTC on the cap for $5M+ for the next 5-7 years, who says he wants to play? What do you do with him? Muskoka 5 saga all over again?

The backdiving nature of Luongo's contract means that it's slightly more manageable in a few years than it is now. But I do agree and understand the apprehension to a Lou deal in regards to his contract. At this point, I'm not sure the organization has many other options.

Odds and stats and speculation aside, the point I'm making is there is plenty of reason to suggest that a goalie can play late into his 30s, and there is ample enough evidence to suggest that that is the case with Luongo. Provided he takes care of himself (no reason to suggest he doesn't), and he wants to play hockey up until that point, then there's no reason why the expectation shouldn't be that RL can play late into his 30s.

Not everyone is an age-less wonder like Brodeur, but there are plenty of examples league-wide that shows goalies can play late.

I've also not seen anything in RL's game to suggest that he's on any sort of decline, etc.

I'd also argue that goalies that retire/ride off in their mid-30s, are more often than not, backup goalies and goalies that don't have prominence on their teams. Not all of them, I know. But many are.

 

[Tak7]

not that it matters but Cox said he wouldn't give anything to acquire Lu

I think he's right and Gillis needs to bite the bullet....if anyone will literally take Lu

The mistake Gillis made was not dealing Luongo before the lockout.

Now, with the new CBA and the heralded cap-savings penalties for cap circumvention contracts, nobody wants to touch these back diving contracts in fear that the player retires.

Luongo the goalie, likely has plenty of value across the league. Luongo the entire package with the contract, is hardly worth a dime. As I said earlier, the only reason Gillis hasn't moved him is because he's holding too high a price. He's likely already realized that.

Ideal fantasy scenario that will never happen? Trade for Luongo whilst giving nothing up, use up the amnesty buyout to get him out of that contract, and re-sign him for something manageable.

 

[donkeyy0]

Cap space. They simply can't afford him.

They have 7+ mil in cap space no? Can't make a deal based around Malone for Luongo?

Meh, whatever. I just figured they'd be the most natural fit. Definitely moreso than Florida would be.

 

[Tak7]

It's the risk in acquiring a long contract, especially with goalies. You are putting yourself in a position to be handcuffed for years. Look what happens to Philly, they're already unimpressed with Bryzgalov's play after year 1 of what, 7? 8? There's an inherent risk factor in acquiring a goalie long-term, one who has never played for your team or in your system particularly.

Maybe he does well the whole time and it's no problem. Maybe he starts trending downwards after a year or two. It's risky.

I don't disagree at all - there are inherent risks to taking on a deal like that.

That's the dilemma of the deal. If Lou was on a, say, 4 year, $5/year contract, then it wouldn't be a problem. You'd also have about 20 other teams interested in him.

While it is risky, I wonder what mandate is on Nonis; at some point this organization has to start taking risks. Ask any Canuck fan and the biggest criticism they will give you, is that Nonis, whilst GM of the Canucks, was far too cautious and didn't take risks.

I'm not saying that he SHOULD take a risk; just that it's something that needs to be looked at and entertained properly.

 

[iArts]

Do you guys think silence means that something will go down, or the opposite?

 

[Cor]

And we still have a mediocre team with below average goaltending - having all the youth and talent in the world doesn't mean anything if you can't keep the puck out of the net.

Perhaps the time to acquire a goaltender isn't now, but later. Hard to ignore value of goaltending help to a young, up and coming team.



Will never be included in a Luongo deal

Exactly, this isn't the time to get Luongo. It's not. We go with Reimer this season after he has had time to train, and get back to 100%

What is the worst thing that can happen?

Situation #1: Reimer comes out, and proves he's a number 1 goalie. We back the playoffs ending the drought without having to take on a TERRIBLE contract and assets

Situation #2: Reimer faulters and we have a terrible season that leads to a top 5 draft pick where we draft a center.

It's a 48 game season. Let's use this to really look at what we have, give guys like Kadri, Frattin, Reimer a chance to show what they really are.

 

[Cor]

They have 7+ mil in cap space no? Can't make a deal based around Malone for Luongo?

Meh, whatever. I just figured they'd be the most natural fit. Definitely moreso than Florida would be.

I don't know if Tampa is interested.... I think they want to see what Lindback can do for them

 

[Tak7]

Do you guys think silence means that something will go down, or the opposite?

Often, the phrase - "Silence is deafening" can speak volumes as to indication that something is going on.

But in this case, NOTHING is happening.

It's simple - Gillis has set a high price based on his evaluation of Roberto Luongo, the player.

Nonis (and all other interested parties) - are only prepared to offer very little, based on their evaluation of Roberto Luongo, the contract.

 

[Tak7]

Exactly, this isn't the time to get Luongo. It's not. We go with Reimer this season after he has had time to train, and get back to 100%

What is the worst thing that can happen?

Situation #1: Reimer comes out, and proves he's a number 1 goalie. We back the playoffs ending the drought without having to take on a TERRIBLE contract and assets

Situation #2: Reimer faulters and we have a terrible season that leads to a top 5 draft pick where we draft a center.

It's a 48 game season. Let's use this to really look at what we have, give guys like Kadri, Frattin, Reimer a chance to show what they really are.

For what it's worth, I'm in agreement with you - although I do think Situation #2 will be the most likely scenario for this team.

James Reimer is not a #1 NHL goaltender. The problem with this team is that it's got a lot of attacking talent, who will score, and put up Ws. IF anything, this team will squeek into the playoffs, or miss narrowly - that's hardly a position to be in come draft day when it comes time to getting a center

 

[Confucius]

not that it matters but Cox said he wouldn't give anything to acquire Lu

I think he's right and Gillis needs to bite the bullet....if anyone will literally take Lu

I've been saying that for months, it isn't worth giving up anything for LU. I look at it this way if LU was a UFA, what kind of deal could he get? Would a team offer 50 million over the next 10 years? If a team did offer that, remember it didn't cost them any player assets.

 

[mix1home]

Do you guys think silence means that something will go down, or the opposite?

I think nothing happens today, but I think Van will realize that there is no market for Lou unless it's for middle of the pack player and good not great prospect. And that market shrinks every day and in the summer it would be even less... So they will send him packing before the season starts.

 

[darrylsittler27]

Gillis wants too much.

No one will pay the price he wants.For Toronto to progress we can't overpay.During the season other goalies will come to market while we see what we have in Reimer.After 48 games last year,we would be tops in the East,so there is reason to believe we could make the playoffs without Luongo. Reimer played well until the whiplash injury and deserves a chance (10 games) to prove himself.If it isn't working,then and only then Nonnis should blink.We may be .500 at game 10 and still able to make the playoffs if a vet goalie comes up,and it will ,teams have other needs.

The very worst case scenario is a high draft pick and possible free agents(i.e Perry,Getzlaf).If we trade valuable assets we never get a number one center,Luongo will not guarantee anything and we wont get the high picks.These kind of trades have not worked out for us in the past,be careful what you wish for,this trade could set us back another 10 years as well muddle through the middle.Not making the playoffs nor drafting the stars we clearly need.Let's see what we have before we panic and regret it later.

 

[mix1home]

I wonder what would happen if in say 2 years Reimer proves himself a #1G and unseats Loungo. We need to sign him for bigger money and then what?
It will be even harder for us to sell then 35-36 y.o goalie. If I think about it I'm terrified.

 

[Sundinftw]

John Shannon failed

 

[Leaf_Crazy]

Realistically, Luongos contract isnt as bad as people think.

In the later years of his deal say years 8,9,10. He will be overpaid.

In the first 5 years of his deal, he will be a bargain.

If I'm Nonis, I dont make the deal. I wait till his value plummets once the distraction is evident. Maybe trade for him around the draft. Never know then though, lots of teams could be in the market for a goalie.

If Bryz fails, they are in the market.
If Brodeur retires, Devils are in the market.

However, Harding or Hackett might become available, Tim Thomas and Bernier. Lots of options out there if we dont get Lou.

 

[Tak7]

I wonder what would happen if in say 2 years Reimer proves himself a #1G and unseats Loungo. We need to sign him for bigger money and then what?
It will be even harder for us to sell then 35-36 y.o goalie. If I think about it I'm terrified.

Your terrified about a hypothetical scenario whereby James Reimer becomes an elite NHL goaltender and becomes better than Luongo, demanding more/similar money?

First - Reimer won't become a legitimate elite NHL goalie.

Second - If Luongo was an FA right now, he wouldn't get the same sort of deal he is on now. Those back diving contracts are largely going to be a thing of the past, especially when you factor in the cap-savings penalties or the "Luongo rule" that is being included in the new CBA.