Speculation: Luongo Trade Discussions Thread - All

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saskganesh

Registered User
Jun 19, 2006
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the Annex
When Burke got fired, they did not message about performance. That was not the point. Any other argument is either spin and revisionism And we are seeing a lot of that in the follow up stories. Burke is part of this spin for 3 million reasons.

OR, the new bosses, who run communication/media companies, really did fire him about performance, and are just really, really bad at communications and now they are trying to save the message. Ouch.

The irony runs deep in this one.

*thinking* Solely based on my personal history with Rogers billing & customer service, it could well be that the latter scenario is the true one.
 

Tak7

Registered User
Nov 1, 2009
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One thing no one is discussing, is the pressure Dave Nonis perceives himself to be under.

Most of the interviews suggests that he's got the backing of the board, and that they aren't putting any pressure on him to win now.

But you have to wonder.

Does Nonis believe he is in danger at the end of the season?

If he thinks he has the gig for the next few years, and can develop a long term plan, then he might not even want to touch the Luongo trade and let things unwind and see what happens from there - the type of patient approach we've all wanted this team to take for a long time.

But, if he thinks he's only here in the interim capacity, without the title, and that the only thing preventing the board from doing a full search and interview process was a) timing, and b) Anselmi's insistence on some consistency before the season, then he want to ensure that come May the board have ZERO option but to continue with him at the helm.

How does he do that?

By making the playoffs of course -and that is largely done by making an aggressive move. Ie. a Luongo trade.
 

mix1home

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Sep 29, 2009
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Bell and Rogers paid a big price to get MLSE. They need to produce revenue if the suits who made that decision are to satisy the shareholders and board of directors. To do that means winning and getting into the playoffs. This will also mean higher numbers for Leafs TV and more money from advertising on tv/radio. They do that and they net about 2$million+ per home playoff game and they sell even more product at inflated prices. If Luongo gets them 8 or 10 playoff games over this year and next the business decision to buy MLSE looks sweet maybe thirty or million in increased net revenue. They can still buy out a contract or 2 and have tons of cap room to buy some star UFAs. In the meantime the cap grows and ten years from now the cap hit is like paying for Darcy Tucker--a mere annoyance.

FYI. Bell profit is $4B. $10M for Bell is like change you lost because of hole in the pocket.
 

mix1home

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Sep 29, 2009
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Toronto,ON
that's just called proper asset managment. Montreal did the same thing with Halak when they got price.

no point in having two top goalies, would you rather trade the one thats 26-27? or 33?

I'm not worried about a 5 mil cap hit for a couple years when there is an 80 million+ ceilling down the road.

Is that right? 2nd round pick for Lou then? :nod:
 

34

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Mar 26, 2010
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Never mind with Loungo! He is not the answer for Toronto and his price tag is way too high!
 

tmlms13

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Apr 11, 2012
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trade connolly, lombardi, komisarik for a few extra draft picks would be amazing. I'm sure some team will overpay for a veteran forward or Defenseman
 

mix1home

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Sep 29, 2009
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Toronto,ON
Actually thinking about Halak example, Halak:

- was in the same situation as Lou is now.
- age was 25 (RFA)
- was not signed for decade
- was signed for much less
- no cap penalty
- actually put bad team on his back and got them into playoffs
- similar stats
- got Lars Eller and Ian Schultz in return

Based on all of above, I think good man Kadri is huge overpayment.
My hope would be Connolly + one of our middle D prospects/players.
 

KeninsFan

Fire Benning already
Feb 6, 2012
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Actually thinking about Halak example, Halak:

- was in the same situation as Lou is now.

I think you're selling Luongo's career quite short there. The situations are a little bit reversed as well, Halak replaced Price the playoffs but was subsequently dealt.

I don't personally see the Connolly+ comparison, Halak was dealt for Eller + Schult both who were pretty good prospects. Eller being a recent 1st rounder.

The closest Luongo comparable was the Luongo trade in '06.
 

DD03

3D
Mar 15, 2010
21,734
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I think you're selling Luongo's career quite short there.

The closest Luongo comparable was the Luongo trade in '06

No it has nothing to do with Luongo's career and everything to do with his contract.. His contract makes him more or less valuable and right now it's not in the Nucks favour.
 

Antropovsky

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Jun 2, 2007
15,318
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I think you're selling Luongo's career quite short there. Halak was dealt for Eller + Schult both who were pretty good prospects. Eller being a recent 1st rounder.
The closest Luongo comparable was the Luongo trade in '06.
To be honest, if I had a choice between halak at 25 or Lou right now for Kadri, I'd take halak. Also, closest Lou comparable being Lou in 2006? As in 3 years short of ten years later? I'd sell the farm for Lou at 26 years old, but for a 33 year old goalie, on a fat contract, whose seemingly already lost a step... Not a chance.
 

KeninsFan

Fire Benning already
Feb 6, 2012
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No it has nothing to do with Luongo's career and everything to do with his contract.. His contract makes him more or less valuable and right now it's not in the Nucks favour.
I agree.

I still don't see how Luongo/Halak are an apt comparison and how Connolly+ as a return can be derived from Schultz + Eller.
 

KeninsFan

Fire Benning already
Feb 6, 2012
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To be honest, if I had a choice between halak at 25 or Lou right now for Kadri, I'd take halak. Also, closest Lou comparable being Lou in 2006? As in 3 years short of ten years later? I'd sell the farm for Lou at 26 years old, but for a 33 year old goalie, on a fat contract, whose seemingly already lost a step... Not a chance.

Luongo in 2006 definitely was a more valuable player but keep in mind he was an unsigned RFA a year away from UFA status. His contract at the time took up 15% of the cap space, where as it takes up only 8% now. Of course the cap penalty after he retires is a negative.

I don't see how Luongo has lost a step, his style is dramatically less athletic yes but he is much more positionally sound. His injured groin in 08 hasn't really affected his play as he finished top 3 in Vezina voting a few seasons after.
 

rdawg1234

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Jul 2, 2012
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Luongo in 2006 definitely was a more valuable player but keep in mind he was an unsigned RFA a year away from UFA status. His contract at the time took up 15% of the cap space, where as it takes up only 8% now. Of course the cap penalty after he retires is a negative.

I don't see how Luongo has lost a step, his style is dramatically less athletic yes but he is much more positionally sound. His injured groin in 08 hasn't really affected his play as he finished top 3 in Vezina voting a few seasons after.

There's a good reason why many WANT to trade for him.

he's a near-elite goalie close to the top 5 of the league(definitely top 10).

Goalies of his calibre are fine in their mid-late thirties. We aren't talking about a run of a mill guy that had a few solid .915-.920 seasons then crapped out at say 32 or so and just went way downhill(i.e The nabokov, theodore, giguere, vokoun type goalies) IMO luongo is up there with the Tim Thomas, Brodeur, roloson etc. types that go well into their late 30's and still play well. Maybe not thomas level good but, I still see him being an adequate 50 game starter at say age 37-38.
 

BobbyFischer*

Guest
Toronto are getting Luongo, whatever it takes. Book it.

The owners want to make the playoffs in the worst way, and they need a goalie.
 

Jerkini

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May 31, 2003
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Actually thinking about Halak example, Halak:

- was in the same situation as Lou is now.
- age was 25 (RFA)
- was not signed for decade
- was signed for much less
- no cap penalty
- actually put bad team on his back and got them into playoffs
- similar stats
- got Lars Eller and Ian Schultz in return

Based on all of above, I think good man Kadri is huge overpayment.
My hope would be Connolly + one of our middle D prospects/players.

It's funny how little Vancouver fans think of Kadri. He's a better prospect than Zack Kassian IMO.
 

ACC1224

Super Elite, Passing ALL Tests since 2002
Aug 19, 2002
76,404
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It's funny how little Vancouver fans think of Kadri. He's a better prospect than Zack Kassian IMO.

Judging by their grossly inflated perceived value of Luongo is there any surprise?
 

RogerRoeper*

Guest
Actually thinking about Halak example, Halak:

- was in the same situation as Lou is now.
- age was 25 (RFA)
- was not signed for decade
- was signed for much less
- no cap penalty
- actually put bad team on his back and got them into playoffs
- similar stats
- got Lars Eller and Ian Schultz in return

Based on all of above, I think good man Kadri is huge overpayment.
My hope would be Connolly + one of our middle D prospects/players.

Even Hasek in his prime didn't fetch much for Buffalo when he we t to Detroit.

Goalies don't bring back a big return ever.
 
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