Exactly!!! The problem with a lot of these stats is they do not measure enough "situation" hockey! For example, how many shots on goal at even strength vs. shorthanded!! No, sit there and look at the total! Another, SOG when ahead, tied, or behind! It's common for the team that's behind to have more shots on net while behind, and even paas the team in the lead over the course of the game for total shots, leading some to conclude that hey we outplayed them because we outshot them!! There are all sorts of fallacies to some of these stats, especially Corsi!!
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Forbort is ready NOW!!! He moves better than McNabb, Schultz, and Greene, and can break the puck out better than all three of them! He's better defensively than a lot of the current Kings D, but most certainly better than McBain, Schultz and even McNabb! He won't be as good on the offensive blue line as McNabb or McBaine, but will be better than Schultz or Greene!! It's kind of like pick your poison!! He's definitely better at some aspects than others!! So No, he's not that bad!!! It's how the Kings treat younger players! Hell, they still don't really like Pearson or Toffoli, and didn't even last year, until after being down 3 games to the Sharks, and DS started double shifting Carter from his wing and had him play at the time was like 4th line minutes with the kids!! We know the rest of the story!! Carter got demoted from second line to the fourth line with the kids for the rest of the playoffs!! DL is patient, and we still might see Forbort, especially if we have a playoff drive for points, and DL and DS aren't patient anymore! Right now, he gets a ton of minutes in Manchester, and from my view from watching these games, they all benefit him greatly!! He's really looking comfortable, and that can be important with a young D!
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
You guys are either being purposely obtuse or just not properly reading what I wrote. nowhere did I suggest we deserved to win because we corsi'ed them. Corsi is a big picture stat but if we're playing towards the league lead in it as per usual it's good for long term success. Tonight was a microcosm of the Kings in that we were massive corsi kings but let ourselves down on defense and didn't truly press the issue on offense. Regardless, we DID outplay Calgary tonight, to suggest that their rope-a-dope was an intentional strategy or that full-game PK defense is the way to go is insane.
And actually, you're just flat out demonstrating a complete misunderstanding, because those stats ARE broken down by game situation--when casually spit out here, it's usually measuring basic 5v5 play; you know, how you spend most of the game. It's just that not every post needs a disclaimer.
Unless you're just suggesting the way to be successful is to hope for two bounces then just sit on your hands the rest of the game and pray. Then I don't know what else to tell you. "Just take a lead and PK the rest of the game?" Really? That's not going to make you successful in today's NHL. Literally today it worked, but long term...you're dead in the water.
If it's just easier for you and Trolfoli, just ignore that I even used the word "corsi" and remember all the times we just waltzed around their zone with the puck for 70% of the game. We had the lead in shots on net and possession time for the last 2.5 periods, it was just a 58 minute game like last time we played the Flames. Play like that and sort out the defensive miscues and all is well, no?
Frolov 6'3
Unregistered User
Once again we talk about defense while The Kings didnt even manage to score more than one goal.
Happens too often.
Happens too often.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
It's been 20 days since we scored one goal or less.
Goal totals in December: 2, 4, 1, 0, 5, 2, 3, 2, 6, 4, 3, 3, 1. 2.78 Goals per game in December.
Goals against in December: 0, 0, 2, 1, 3, 6, 4, 5, 4, 2, 4, 1, 2. 2.62 Goals against per game in December.
For a team that won the Jennings last year giving up more than half a goal per less per game, tell me what's the more alarming trend. We've actually had a decent offense this year, but instead of a team with a real identity we're simply middle-of-the-pack in everything.
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ADifferentTim
Knowledgeable & Pure
Example of Sutter's grinders on every line.
King/Kopi/Carter
Brown/Stoll/Williams
Clifford/Richards/Nolan
Pearson/Lewis/Toffoli
Yeah I'm done... just wasn't mentally prepared for Gaborik to be out... Kings without Gaborik are right back to the 29th ranked offence version of the Kings of last year. Not one thing has changed.
Not going to find it hard to believe if Coach Sutter is overcompensating for the fact the team's D is depleted.
I know, right? It's like Gaborik is only reserved for intense matchups vs Sharks, Canucks, and Ducks.
I feel like this team is on sleep mode against the Flames, to the point they're the ones dousing the Kings' internal competitive fire.
I'm not trying to mess with you or make you angry.... Just see it differently is all.
Last year the Kings had trouble with Calgary as well... I remember one of those games the Kings out shot Calgary badly and managed a loss.... I'm starting to see a pattern with how Calgary plays and the difficulty the Kings have with them.
Kings had a bunch of shots/offensive zone time... Calgary said we are going to play defense first... capitalize when we get our chances and they held the Kings to 1 goal. That's damn fine defensive work and they played a hell of a game.
Sacha Baron Corbin
Registered User
- Jan 19, 2011
- 12,544
- 481
I admittedly missed the game tonight due to work but on the subject of the defense, all signs point to Forbort being ready to go down in Manchester but why does the organization keep passing him for guys like Schultz and McBain who probably have no future with the team?
Maybe Forbort isn't that great but I'd at least like to see what he's capable of in an NHL game. I'm sure he'll make his debut this year but it just confuses me with how the organization has handled him this season specifically. I think he could contribute more to the team than Schultz or McBain. He's better offensively than Schultz and better defensively than McBain.
Maybe Forbort isn't that great but I'd at least like to see what he's capable of in an NHL game. I'm sure he'll make his debut this year but it just confuses me with how the organization has handled him this season specifically. I think he could contribute more to the team than Schultz or McBain. He's better offensively than Schultz and better defensively than McBain.
Frolov 6'3
Unregistered User
The Kings are still at the top of the league in goals against. Scored one goal last night and only got two goals against.
Talk about defense if you see 6-4, 5-3, 4-3 outcomes on a regular base.
I also rather see Voynov and Mitchel instead of Greene, Schultz, McBain. Yet if people are going to complain about our defense in a 2-1 loss (and I have seen this more often already) and also use last year's Jennings as argument, yeah than this is going to be a long season....
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Frolov 6'3
Unregistered User
The Kings went to 3 straight conference finals so you wont hear me complain but managment has made a few errors in this time frame aswell.
Just like you and me, they are prone to making mistakes. I also never understood why Hickey never got a shot but at the same time I didnt understand why Bud Holloway wasnt offered a contract.
My point, just because Kings organization keep passing Forbort for other guys, does not mean they are right.
damacles1156
Registered User
- Feb 5, 2010
- 21,668
- 1,318
Over the last 20 games or so, the Kings have scored 3.09 Goals a game...
The defense sucks from the forwards-back (really inconsistent), and Quick/Jones haven't made key saves like they did consistently in October/November.
The defense sucks from the forwards-back (really inconsistent), and Quick/Jones haven't made key saves like they did consistently in October/November.
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KingsFan7824
Registered User
- Dec 4, 2003
- 19,537
- 7,615
McBain is on the roster because he's right handed. Schultz is up because he wasn't supposed to play, but just take up a roster spot while Regehr is out.
The Kings are 12-12-7 in the 31 games outside of that early home stand. Quick has a .907sv% in that time. Most of the players are scoring at around .5 points per game during that time, other than Kopitar and Gaborik who got really hot for a few games.
They've just been a very average team for the most part this season. A good game here or there. One guy will play well in a game, not great the next. Sometimes the offense shows up, sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes they'll come up with a quality defensive effort, sometimes they won't. Not making anything easy for themselves, but not playing themselves out of anything either. They're just sort of plodding along.
The Kings are 12-12-7 in the 31 games outside of that early home stand. Quick has a .907sv% in that time. Most of the players are scoring at around .5 points per game during that time, other than Kopitar and Gaborik who got really hot for a few games.
They've just been a very average team for the most part this season. A good game here or there. One guy will play well in a game, not great the next. Sometimes the offense shows up, sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes they'll come up with a quality defensive effort, sometimes they won't. Not making anything easy for themselves, but not playing themselves out of anything either. They're just sort of plodding along.
Sutter sticks with his game plan from the get go, is not willing to change anything in game and failure results. When King looks like he's carrying a stick that weighs a ton and Brown is playing like he's on fire, why not move Brown up and give Kopi and Carter a bit of a lift? And MR might as well sit for all the good Sutter's getting from him. A typical shift goes like this: face off in defensive zone, work like hell to get puck up to either Nolan or Clifford who are out on the points, skate like hell to catch up to the play in the offensive zone only to have one of the pair of stone hands cough the puck up just as you get in an open position, skate like hell to catch up to the play which has turned the other way, rinse and repeat. It went on all night and was typically evident on the Flames first goal when Richards, among others, got caught in the offensive zone.
Sacha Baron Corbin
Registered User
- Jan 19, 2011
- 12,544
- 481
Oh yeah of course, I'm not gonna criticise management just for not bringing Forbort up yet, they know more about the situation than I do.
I understand wanting to stick to veteran guys when we already have one rookie on the blue line, I personally just thought this would be a perfect time for Forbort's first call up but maybe that's just me. I would just like to hear Lombardi and Blake's thoughts on it.
KingsFan7824
Registered User
- Dec 4, 2003
- 19,537
- 7,615
You can find just as many people say that Sutter isn't willing to change anything during the game, as you can find people saying he changes things too much during a game.
Sometimes he changes things up, sometimes he doesn't. He'll do it when people don't think he should, but he also won't change things up when people are wondering why he won't.
Every coach does that, and every fan base says the same things. Too much change! Not enough change! Everyone is happy only when the team wins, and even then coaches aren't always happy.
You see!! I agree here again!
I looked up a general def of Corsi.
In a nutshell, the Corsi Number is the shot differential while a player was on the ice. This includes not just goals and shots on goal, but also shots that miss the net, and in some formulations, blocked shots. In other words, it's the differential in the total number of shots directed at the net.
So, like stated, the Kings are taking numerous shots because they are behind and Calgary isn't. So Kings Corsi number goes higher! Makes sense. It doesn't mean the Kings outplayed Calgary. Calgary played a game conducive to the situation, which was they had the lead! Is it smart to try and sit on a one goal lead? No, not against most teams! But it's what they were obviously doing, and picking their spots to counter attack off neutral zone turnovers! Perhaps they were waiting for DD and JM to cough it up!! Take their chances that way!
Exactly. Earlier he wouldn't give his line-ups enough time to gel together. Now he seems fixated on his current lines come hell or high water. We'll see how it goes tonight but I'm a little worried at the current level of under-performance.
As Brad Doty noted, there's a nerd stat for that -- it's called Score Adjusted Corsi and it is an attempt by the nerd stat-ers to capture the effect you describe (club with the lead trapping and counter-attacking while the pursuing club piles on the shots).
OK, fine, let's say SA Corsi does a crap job capturing game dynamics, and let's look back to the previous game -- the Kings' 3-1 skinning of the Sharks -- and what does Corsi tell us? That the Kings kept piling up the shot attempts, EVEN WITH THE LEAD. It's LA Kings' hockey, night in and night out, possess the puck, put it on net, leading or trailing and over time, you're going to get the bounces, your goaltender will make a couple more big saves, and you'll get more wins.
Nerd stats for the past 20 games.
PJ Kings Hockey
Registered User
- Oct 15, 2013
- 4,861
- 73
efhank said:
Interesting stats from Jon Rosen:
"-The Kings fell to 4-5-7 in one-goal games." (So yes, apparently it is safe to sit on a one-goal with the Kings...at least in the regular season.)
"-Los Angeles has a 57.6% Corsi-for rating in five-on-five play over the last 17 games (903 CF / 666 CA). They haven’t been outshot over the last 13 games (6-5-2) and have averaged 34.8 shots per game over that span (453 shots / 13 GP). Opposing goalies have posted a .921 save percentage over that span (417 saves / 453 shots)."
Corsi good. # of shots good. Quality of shots, well...the Kings need to focus more on the details.
ETA: good post with link, Model62. According to that site, the Kings are the Corsi Kings of the NHL. The overall habits leading to possession are good, but there is a breakdown in the details causing the Kings to only win 25% of their one-goal games.
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Frolov 6'3
Unregistered User
Well thats what also meant. I thought you didnt understand why Forbort has not been brought up already. Well me neither. Its okay to criticise management so now and then, even when they have been right most of time the last few years.
bmr
Registered User
- Jan 23, 2013
- 1,888
- 1,717
I think a lot of this will even out over the course of the season. The Kings were winning some games early in the year that they had no business winning. Now they are dominating possession/shots and losing. Sometimes it just doesn't go your way. What I saw in last night's game was a very sloppy few minutes of hockey that led to 2 goals by Calgary. The rest of the game was all Kings.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
Fair enough. I just agree to disagree. I don't think this was a 'score effects' game at all. Calgary was just flat outplayed for loooong stretches and though they did the Montreal thing and popped a couple in when they got a chance, I don't think it's much of a defensive strategy to shell and pray halfway through the first period. It'll buy you a regular season game which I suppose is smart, but it'll kill them in the playoffs...which, if they play like that frequently, they won't sniff.
If we're looking at the whole season, sure. I was talking about recent indicators and our defensive personnel. But I guess it's also not just the D personnel because it's forwards losing players and such as well. For the season, we are 2.35 goals against per game, good for 6th. Not bad at all, just not elite. Is that good? Sure. Is that a cup winner? Not in my humble opinion. We're at 2.7 goals for per game, which is good for 18th for the whole season thus far. We could use a boost there, but it's still not nearly as much of a problem as the defensive breakdowns. What would you suggest there is to complain about if not that?
That's score effects and I disagree on last night's game as you saw above. If they were waiting for DD and JM to cough it up they'd have been waiting a loooong time as if you look at the other link I posted DD and JM were two of our most effective players while Giordano and Brodie were actually two of the least effective players on the ice in terms of generating any events.
Again over the course of the season if you're dominating teams in shots differentials something is going right and it correlates with successful teams. that is the point of corsi, not to measure one night. I was simply using it as an illustration of what we were doing. We've frequently talked in the past about turning corsi into production, which is what you saw when the Kings turn it on in the past--they get to the net and muck things up.
This is the problem I've been trying to illustrate. We are doing a lot of macro things right, and then just mentally failing in critical moments. Goals at the end of periods. Guys just flat out not being covered. etc. Those are theoretically easier to sort out than big-picture problems like being outshot night after night (hi, Toronto!), but it has yet to happen. It's like 2013 over 82 games instead of 40+!
Edit: That one-goal game record is the difference between first in our division and a playoff spot. Ugh.
Whiskeypete
Registered User
a lot of bickering back and forth, but the simple fact they lost last night was they didn't play inside "the house" on offense last night.
CAL forced them outside to the perimeter and LA didn't do enough to play in the dirty areas, which would cause D breakdowns for CAL. LA was content to play from the outside and try force shots through bodies.
in my eyes it was another game the team was willing to only put forth a partial effort.
CAL forced them outside to the perimeter and LA didn't do enough to play in the dirty areas, which would cause D breakdowns for CAL. LA was content to play from the outside and try force shots through bodies.
in my eyes it was another game the team was willing to only put forth a partial effort.
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