Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Star Platinum]

While I certainly can't disagree that more offensive production from Bystedt would be nice, I think this is the most important line of everything that's been said in here.

Even when taking into account all the numbers of all these different guys over the years, I feel like there's a lot of context needed (which no one is going to be able to dig into and get for all these guys--but we can see it with Bystedt, whether it's his background, his size, his usage, and so on). I think that as long as we're being realistic about his ceiling, there's no reason to start feeling particularly negative about his chances at this point.

For instance, just a couple days ago Scott Wheeler wrote about him:

Scott Wheeler has Will Smith fifth on his NHL prospects list even though Smith has been in the NHL all season and is sixth in rookie scoring because in his opinion, Smith is not established at the NHL level.

Hopefully the above gives some insight into the high regard with which I hold his opinions.

 

[Cas]

Scott Wheeler has Will Smith fifth on his NHL prospects list even though Smith has been in the NHL all season and is sixth in rookie scoring because in his opinion, Smith is not established at the NHL level.

Hopefully the above gives some insight into the high regard with which I hold his opinions.

Yes, but have you considered that Smith belongs in the AHL and always will?

 

[Lebanezer]

Yes, but have you considered that Smith belongs in the AHL and always will?

Oof, missed opportunity to capitalize Will there.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

While I certainly can't disagree that more offensive production from Bystedt would be nice, I think this is the most important line of everything that's been said in here.

Even when taking into account all the numbers of all these different guys over the years, I feel like there's a lot of context needed (which no one is going to be able to dig into and get for all these guys--but we can see it with Bystedt, whether it's his background, his size, his usage, and so on). I think that as long as we're being realistic about his ceiling, there's no reason to start feeling particularly negative about his chances at this point.

For instance, just a couple days ago Scott Wheeler wrote about him:

With all due respect to Scott Wheeler and the like, I find their projections tend to be very overly optimistic. Often, the "he projects" tends to be "this is his ceiling if things go well." I'm quite confident that if you counted the number of players he projects at any given roster spot, you'd find there aren't enough NHL spots at to accommodate all the players projected to earn such spots (e.g. there are only 32 NHL 3Cs at a given time but I'd bet that if all of his projections hit, there would be over 40 NHL 3Cs at a given time, contradicting the projections). I could be wrong but this is my general sentiment of prospect people over the years; they are far too optimistic and set player floors way too high.

Also, what context am I missing with Bystedt? He is big. I agree that is significant. But I don't think he is somebody whose production is really being dragged down by his context like e.g. Hagens arguably is, and I haven't seen people suggest otherwise.

 

[Sharksfan66]

My apologies if I misread you as antagonistic. I'd call my work in hockey more of a side hustle than a career, but more importantly, the side hustle is based on numbers rather than video (which I always acknowledge). Here was Bystedt's prospect card, built using my data, at the start of this season:

View attachment 976100

My model has 1 AHL point worth 0.389 NHL points, so Bystedt's NHLe (82-game NHL equivalent scoring rate) is currently about 18.5 this year; a very marginal improvement on last year. When I update the probabilities at the end of the season, his NHLer probability will likely drop considerably from the 64% it was here. My model is perhaps a bit too high on the SHL and a bit too low on the AHL, so one could argue that this season is at least an improvement on last year if not his D+1, but it's still discouraging. And on the flip side of the AHL/SHL point, my model being higher on the SHL is perhaps inflating Bystedt's numbers already. One could argue he should have been under 50% to play 200 NHL games even going into this year.

Regarding other 3Cs around the league, it seems you overlooked our very own Alex Wennberg? He scored 40 points in 69 games in the NHL in his D+3 season. The same exact rate Bystedt is scoring at in the AHL. Here are some other guys who I would classify as 3Cs right now who scored substantially better in their D+3:

Ryan McLeod - 1 PPG AHL
Ryan Strome - 0.49 PPG NHL
Morgan Geekie - 0.76 PPG AHL
Jack Roslovic - 1.09 PPG AHL and 0.45 PPG NHL
Dvorak - 0.42 PPG NHL
Connor Zary - 0.81 PPG AHL
Anton Lundell - 0.45 PPG NHL (and was 0.68 PPG NHL in D+2)
JG Pageau - 0.96 PPG AHL
Max Domi - 0.64 PPG NHL
Filip Chytil - 0.38 PPG NHL
Vlad Namestnikov - 0.86 PPG AHL

One thing I will acknowledge is that the development path to 3C seems very unpredictable. Unlike 1C or even 2W, many guys come out of nowhere to make it. But again, as Cas mentions, a better way to do this would be to look at all the guys who fit within a reasonably defined profile, and see what percentage of them made it. (IMO, an even better way to do it is just to look at a model, and we will see how mine and others look at the end of the year).

I thought about Wennberg but wasn't sure how to compare NHL scoring rate to AHL. Same for a number of guys on this list, though I clearly missed some. JGP is an especially good counter example IMO. Others, I would consider more than 3Cs on this list, but I guess that's where the whole lable of "3C" gets subjective. Anyway, this is more of what I was looking for. Thx!

 

[Sharksfan66]

Okay, I realize I'm overdoing this, and apologize for that, but here's 98 forwards who played exclusively in the AHL in their D+3 year between 2010 and 2021 and scored between 0.5 and 0.75 PPG. (The number on the far right is NHLe, which is 0.389 * 82 * AHL PPG, so we get values between 16 and 24). I pulled this super quick so please correct me if you can find an error but I believe this is accurate.

Spoiler: List of Players

Player Teams Season NHLe
Tobias Rieder Portland Pirates 2014 23.95
Logan Brown Belleville Senators 2019 23.95
Sonny Milano Cleveland Monsters 2017 23.82
Tanner Pearson Manchester Monarchs 2013 23.45
Brendan Leipsic totals 2015 23.3
Vladislav Kamenev Milwaukee Admirals 2017 23.27
Jason Dickinson Texas Stars 2016 23.18
Seth Griffith Providence Bruins 2014 23.14
Kole Lind Utica Comets 2020 23.03
Rudolfs Balcers San Jose Barracuda 2018 22.88
Yegor Sokolov Belleville Senators 2021 22.81
German Rubtsov Lehigh Valley Phantoms 2019 22.81
Brett Ritchie Texas Stars 2014 22.54
Mark Stone Binghamton Senators 2013 22.47
Tomas Kubalik Springfield Falcons 2011 22.27
Shane Prince Binghamton Senators 2014 22.21
Benoit-Olivier Groulx San Diego Gulls 2021 22.05
Sven Andrighetto Hamilton Bulldogs 2014 21.95
Adam Henrique Albany Devils 2011 21.87
Phil Varone Rochester Americans 2012 21.85
Nino Niederreiter Bridgeport Sound Tigers 2013 21.58
Miikka Salomaki Milwaukee Admirals 2014 21.29
Ty Rattie Chicago Wolves 2014 21.29
Otto Koivula Bridgeport Sound Tigers 2019 21.29
Brandon Kozun Manchester Monarchs 2011 21.29
Taylor Raddysh Syracuse Crunch 2019 20.98
Akil Thomas Ontario Reign 2021 20.76
Matt Puempel Binghamton Senators 2014 20.71
Alex Chmelevski San Jose Barracuda 2020 20.53
Jamie Arniel Providence Bruins 2011 20.47
Richard Panik Norfolk Admirals 2012 20.46
Jeremy Bracco Toronto Marlies 2018 20.44
Morgan Geekie Charlotte Checkers 2019 20.12
Michael Rasmussen Grand Rapids Griffins 2020 20.07
Cedric Paquette Syracuse Crunch 2014 20.07
Klim Kostin San Antonio Rampage 2020 19.96
Aleksi Saarela Charlotte Checkers 2018 19.9
Max Sauve Providence Bruins 2011 19.89
Andrew Mangiapane Stockton Heat 2017 19.84
Nikita Scherbak St. John's IceCaps 2017 19.84
Spencer Machacek Chicago Wolves 2010 19.81
Trey Fix-Wolansky Cleveland Monsters 2020 19.31
Michael Amadio Ontario Reign 2017 19.25
Alex Broadhurst Rockford IceHogs 2014 19.16
Alex Volkov Syracuse Crunch 2018 19.16
Eric Tangradi Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins 2010 19.16
Johan Larsson totals 2013 18.97
Henrik Samuelsson Portland Pirates 2015 18.78
James Wright Norfolk Admirals 2011 18.76
Chris Terry Albany River Rats 2010 18.76
Adam Mascherin Texas Stars 2019 18.73
Zach Hamill Providence Bruins 2010 18.73
Mitchell Stephens Syracuse Crunch 2018 18.7
Matthew Phillips Stockton Heat 2019 18.67
Andreas Athanasiou Grand Rapids Griffins 2015 18.58
Linden Vey Manchester Monarchs 2012 18.56
Jeremy Morin Rockford IceHogs 2012 18.51
Jonathan Dahlen totals 2019 18.49
Paul Byron Portland Pirates 2010 18.49
Jordan Schroeder Chicago Wolves 2012 18.49
Nicolas Deschamps Syracuse Crunch 2011 18.36
Ryan Hartman Rockford IceHogs 2016 18.32
Sammy Blais Chicago Wolves 2017 18.31
Eeli Tolvanen Milwaukee Admirals 2020 18.25
Jc Lipon St. John's IceCaps 2014 18.18
Jordan Knackstedt Providence Bruins 2010 18.11
Shane Bowers Colorado Eagles 2020 17.96
Joe Colborne totals 2011 17.88
Damien Giroux Iowa Wild 2021 17.84
Nick Shore Manchester Monarchs 2014 17.84
Jayce Hawryluk Springfield Thunderbirds 2017 17.67
Colton Sissons Milwaukee Admirals 2015 17.65
Danick Martel Lehigh Valley Phantoms 2016 17.63
Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson Providence Bruins 2018 17.62
Michael Latta Milwaukee Admirals 2012 17.53
Julien Gauthier Charlotte Checkers 2019 17.46
Michael Dal Colle Bridgeport Sound Tigers 2017 17.46
Rasmus Asplund Rochester Americans 2019 17.46
Brandon Gignac Binghamton Devils 2019 17.42
Michael Spacek Manitoba Moose 2018 17.34
Nicolas Roy Charlotte Checkers 2018 17.34
Taylor Beck Milwaukee Admirals 2012 17.26
Max Friberg Norfolk Admirals 2014 17.26
Jerry D'Amigo Toronto Marlies 2012 17.23
William Carrier Rochester Americans 2016 17.11
Dennis Yan Syracuse Crunch 2018 17.08
Scott Glennie Texas Stars 2012 16.88
Jaret Anderson-Dolan Ontario Reign 2020 16.87
Evgeny Dadonov Rochester Americans 2010 16.81
Jordan Weal Manchester Monarchs 2013 16.73
Rourke Chartier San Jose Barracuda 2017 16.68
Connor Bunnaman Lehigh Valley Phantoms 2019 16.48
Aaron Palushaj totals 2010 16.48
Adam Lowry St. John's IceCaps 2014 16.47
Victor Rask Charlotte Checkers 2014 16.39
Nicolas Kerdiles Norfolk Admirals 2015 16.28
Dmytro Timashov Toronto Marlies 2018 16.2
Kyle Beach Rockford IceHogs 2011 16.19

I count about a dozen guys whose player quality at the NHL level was at least 3C. If you're being generous, maybe you can find 20, which puts you at 20/89, or 23%. You can be a little more generous and round up to 25%, what the hell. 1-in-4.

I am not writing him off by any means because there are clearly examples of similar profiles making it. But this is a clear example of the data suggesting we are being overly optimistic about our guy. Most forwards who score at this rate in their D+3 in the AHL do not amount to anything. I still prefer a model that incorporates all other information (DY-1 through D+2 performance, size, etc.) over this sort of analysis, and mine will probably give him better NHLer odds than this analysis does. But a holistic analysis suggests he should clearly be below 50% probability of even playing 200 NHL games at this point. And the reviews I have seen of his performance from Cuda fans have not been that he is doing great things which the numbers don't show.

Again, not writing him off or trashing him. But of course you trade this guy and Henry Thrun for two 1st round picks.

Thanks for taking the time to dig into this. I honestly am not familiar with 90% of the names on that list (which fits with your point I would imagine) but just looking at the 3 Sharks names on that list, neither Balcers nor Chartier were quite scoring at Bystedt's rate. And I think Chmelevski would make a fine 3C if he'd ever come back to the NHL, though I imagine that's a debatable opinion at best.

All that said, you've convinced me that I'm being pretty optimistic when it comes to Bystedt. Mores than I had thought anyway. That said, I would still rather bank on the shot that he works out than kick the can down the road for another long shot pick down the road. Unless it was a move for a no brainer improvement, I'm still not sure I'm ready to sell Bystedt for magic beans (i.e., a late 1st). Him + Thrun for TWO firsts, sure, but while I know that was teh original context earlier in this thread, I can't imagine anyone actually offering that. So I'm going to hope that Bystedt is one of those rare 1 in 4 guys that rounds out our Center group

 

[Jargon]

I’m not sure I’m ready to say Bystedt is a Bustedt (joining in on the nickname fun, you’ve all broken me down). He had a great start and it feels like they’ve been trying to get him to focus on defense, so maybe that’s currently costing him his offense. I think I’ll wait to see how he does in the AHL next season.

That said, if the opportunity arises to trade him + for a good defensive prospect 100% sign me up.

 

[timorous me]

With all due respect to Scott Wheeler and the like, I find their projections tend to be very overly optimistic. Often, the "he projects" tends to be "this is his ceiling if things go well." I'm quite confident that if you counted the number of players he projects at any given roster spot, you'd find there aren't enough NHL spots at to accommodate all the players projected to earn such spots (e.g. there are only 32 NHL 3Cs at a given time but I'd bet that if all of his projections hit, there would be over 40 NHL 3Cs at a given time, contradicting the projections). I could be wrong but this is my general sentiment of prospect people over the years; they are far too optimistic and set player floors way too high.

Also, what context am I missing with Bystedt? He is big. I agree that is significant. But I don't think he is somebody whose production is really being dragged down by his context like e.g. Hagens arguably is, and I haven't seen people suggest otherwise.

Wheeler's opinion certainly shouldn't be held up as gospel, but he's at least a somewhat-respected guy in the industry, I'd say, and I'd just seen that opinion of his, so I thought it was a good counter-point that offered up a fairly thoughtful perspective on Bystedt.

I guess when we're talking about context for Bystedt I'm thinking of soft factors like this being his first year living and playing in North America, or the fact that he's mostly played with second or third-tier talent as linemates with the Barracuda instead of the guys that'll help him put up points. It might also be, as @Jargon said, that the coaches are trying to get him to develop his whole game, or the Sharks trying to get Bystedt to shake the "identity crisis" that Wheeler referred to in the bit of his I quoted above.

And like I said, this is me looking at his ceiling as that of a 3rd line center, and depending on the team and the role, that wouldn't mean he has to be a big scorer to be successful if he can actually develop his whole game (it would be nice if he could become a penalty killer down the line, for instance, but he might get little power play time if the Sharks do have the kind of skill in the lineup that we're hoping for).

 

[mogambomoroo]

To me the most safe option would be to acquire a 3C at FA (Frederic please) and push Wennberg down to 4C or 3W. Give a chance to Bystedt play at Wennberg spot after he's traded at TDL.
I'm going to play it safe and say I would be happy if Bystedt becomes a homegrown 4C with a chance to grow into a 3C if everything goes well.