OT: LOCAL COVID19 - PART IV... Seriously, local only

[jbeck5]

Without the testing this year, the wastewater numbers have become more important.

Shouldn't hospital, ICU, and death numbers due to covid (and not with covid) be the actual numbers to worry about?

If half the population has covid, and there's 3 people in ICU and 0 deaths, then I don't see it as that concerning if wastewater now indicates that 70% of people have covid if the hospital numbers and deaths remain unchanged.

I care more about how many people are being effected by covid than how many people have covid.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

Shouldn't hospital, ICU, and death numbers due to covid (and not with covid) be the actual numbers to worry about?

If half the population has covid, and there's 3 people in ICU and 0 deaths, then I don't see it as that concerning if wastewater now indicates that 70% of people have covid if the hospital numbers and deaths remain unchanged.

I care more about how many people are being effected by covid than how many people have covid.

For sure the hospital numbers are the most important. The wastewater is important as well though because if we see a dramatic rise quickly we can predict and plan for a surge in cases.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Understanding Risk
Really good read .. and pertinent to the current environment we are wandering into

 

[Golden_Jet]

Shouldn't hospital, ICU, and death numbers due to covid (and not with covid) be the actual numbers to worry about?

If half the population has covid, and there's 3 people in ICU and 0 deaths, then I don't see it as that concerning if wastewater now indicates that 70% of people have covid if the hospital numbers and deaths remain unchanged.

I care more about how many people are being effected by covid than how many people have covid.

That goes without saying, for sure, the wastewater helps us see changes in trends beforehand.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Without the testing this year, the wastewater numbers have become more important.

Supposedly ticking upward as we would expect.. Good indicator.

They should bring back testing imo.

 

[Beech]

Supposedly ticking upward as we would expect.. Good indicator.

They should bring back testing imo.

is this accurate?

 

[Oscar The Grouch]

I tested positive on a PCR in mid Jan and now tested positive on a rapid test today. COVID twice in 6 weeks? Symptoms both times.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

is this accurate?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toro...astewater-sur-1.6366103?__vfz=medium=sharebar

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

is this accurate?

I believe so .. saw something on that within the past 2 days

Nothing alarming but
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/resurgence-covid-19-viral-load-wastewater-sur-1.6366103

 

[Beech]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/resurgence-covid-19-viral-load-wastewater-sur-1.6366103?__vfz=medium=sharebar

take a look at deaths as % of cases. It is creeping up. Ideally it should be dropping thanks to 3rd and 4th shots. It has just about doubled. I am guessing low 4th shots.
by comparison the 1-19, 20-39, 40-59 did not move.

waning immunity??? They have to open shot 4 to all above 70 and rush it through. It would seem that 3-4 months is the max time for that shot. Shot #3 was principally in October and November. Its time is ending.

f***, these numbers may rise sharply. Rising total infections and rising deaths as a % of cases. This damn thing wants to ensure we are back in 1960 and life expectancy is 73!!!

Man do we need these two numbers to stop or recede. You need not worry Dzingle, Ford will have little choice but to reimpose restrictions and lockdowns. This nightmare continues. They may have to put the vaccine in our drinking water at this rate.

 

[Beech]

I believe so .. saw something on that within the past 2 days

Nothing alarming but
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/resurgence-covid-19-viral-load-wastewater-sur-1.6366103

read up. This is terrible news.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Nac Mac, I think you are in HR..Maybe I am wrong. So you would know way better.

But what you are proposing is difficult. It lends itself too abuse. At present, most private work places allow you up to two days off, by day 3, you have to provide a Doctor's note. This is to make sure that people don't supplement their 2-5 week vacations with a further 2-3 weeks of "I was sick".

I don't know what government(s) is like?

If we apply your recommendation, all you do is give people vacations...It will be an invitation to everyone to abuse the system. If you try and correct by adding the Doctor's note after 2 days, Now you could be asking a truly sick person, to get to a Doctor to get a note and thus spread the disease. If you correct by making it unpaid, WAH !!! Now we have problems and we have people going in when sick.

I am not sure how we will handle this next year (fall 2022, winter 2023). There will be waves of this virus for years and I am not sure how we will stop it. It returns us to my point to Sens of A. , the problem is a "me problem" and we will have to endure and adapt and adjust as best as we can.

No, I'm not in HR.

I would propose a compromise...no doctors note (doctors hate giving notes for anything less than a week or two anyways) for short sickness, but something like 50% pay for up to 5 days without a note, to a maximum of perhaps 15 days per year. A note required if more than a week off, and then anything after 5 days is full pay, or goes to government covering it for long term absences.

Yes, people will abuse it (like they abuse everything), but what else can you do? Drag sick people into work and get everyone in the workplace infected? We need to make some changes to how we do things to try and limit the spread of whatever comes next.

 

[ACLEVERNAME]

Enjoy yourselves while you have the opportunity. The rug will get pulled out from under you like it has before. I might try to make it to a Sens game for the first time in ~6 years. Might be worth the risk.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

Enjoy yourselves while you have the opportunity. The rug will get pulled out from under you like it has before. I might try to make it to a Sens game for the first time in ~6 years. Might be worth the risk.

Hopefully this doesnt happen and if it does it's just masks and some vaccine passports for short amounts of time in the future. If my business get's closed for a 4th time i'll be pretty frustrated.

 

[Beech]

Hopefully this doesnt happen and if it does it's just masks and some vaccine passports for short amounts of time in the future. If my business get's closed for a 4th time i'll be pretty frustrated.

everything hinges on a parameter that none of us know and one that we do.

Asymptomatic spread...How many people feel covid versus those that do not and what is more important? Asymptomatic spread in the 70 plus. I am hoping the government knows this. Based upon an article I read, written about the analytics regarding covid, it does not give me hope. Even the statisticians are frustrated by the reduction of testing.

The higher that this number is, the better. It tells us that each person who tests positive has some number of people that are infected, but feel no symptoms. This tells us, the virus is circulating in that group, but is doing no harm!

If it is as low as 1-3? we are in trouble. If 6-10? Hurrah, we have the flu. 4 and 5 are ambiguous.

The other parameter is: how many 70 plus year olds have had either shot #3 or #4 in the last month (February). This may be a waning vaccine. 3-4 months. If their last shot was in February, they are safe until May. By which time, this wave passes. if not, if few have had shot #4, or if shot #3 was in December and further back in time, we could have problems.

Ford will react based upon what he sees. Let's hope all the above is favorable. Or Ford forces the issue an forces all 70 plus years olds to have no more than a 3-4 month gap between shots, until May. Then lockdowns, restrictions and many other issues end. This may be the wisest approach.

 

[Xspyrit]

Xpirit,

we are continuing to debate old debates. And to what end?

The Vaccine was first talked about in the summer of 2020. Almost instantly, it had its detractors.
By November of 2020, it was announced an approval followed swiftly. The detractors remained and as it was now a reality, their numbers swelled.
It has been 14 months since approval and first use, the detractors have dwindled, but not disappeared. Those not vaccinated are down to a small percentage.
In the meantime, we have seen the mutation to Omicron and seemingly other variants, but Omicron remains dominant.

Omicorn has transformed this into a "flu like endemic". Deadlier than the flu, by probably 3 to 5 fold and way faster spreading, again probably 3 to 5 fold.
Covid has not changed since it first hit us in late 2019. It afflicts everyone, but seems to kill the elderly or the small group of younger people with health issues. Delta and Alpha lead to an average death age of 83..Human life expectancy is 84. Essentially Covid is killing and has been killing people principally in their 80 and 90s. The vaccine, which is primarily an immune boosting drug, does appear to lesson the chances of death (by almost 4-5 over delta) and the need for hospitalization (by almost 10 over delta). It may or may not be an absolute vaccine. By that I mean, take a few shots (like the Polio vaccine) and it is good for a life time, but it may be closer to the flu shot where yearly shots are needed.

All the above is old news, well documents and nothing new. We can add another 100 line items as facts and data about covid.

The portion of society that either does not wish to be vaccinated or have stopped at 2 shots is small, but not zero. It may or may not decrease. I suspect that it will increase. If this thing becomes the "new Flu", then only a small percentage of people will get their yearly Covid shot.

MY GOD I COULD WRITE a PHD thesis..I will stop here. We all need to move on from the covid debate. It needs to be in the rear view mirror. We need to move on to life. We have taken covid to its limits. Talking about the vaccine is like talking about the 2016-2021 Sens..rear view mirror. Who cares about Erik Gudbranson..he is gone. We need to talk about JBD. He is here and about Jake Sanderson who is coming.

Who is vaccinated, who is not, who has 1,2 3 or 4 shots is rear view mirror. As are truckers, as are masks, as are passports, as is the billions spent, as is covid. The future is about recovery, about healing about re-living. It is about thermobaric bombs in far off lands. About $1.50/L gasoline. About pipelines to get Alberta oil. "a time to be born, a time to die..." you can look up the rest of the poem/song/verse yourself. The season is now for planting. We all need to move on.

Not sure why you're telling me all this and it's kind of a hard read for me as my brain has a hard time computing this style of post...

But I'll try to answer. I am sorry but it's not ME that needs to "move on", it's these anti-everything that need to come back to reality (or finally discover it). I am not the one calling/texting people trying to brainwash them into not taking a vaccine. So lol about covid being an "old debate" it certainly continues for a lot of people. That we like it or not, it's not over, people are still going to die from it, particularly non-vaccinated people. Like my 82 y/o great aunt who could die in the next few days because she refused the vaccine. Thankfully she looks like 65 and she's very healthy, she stands a chance.

"We need to move on to life", personally never stopped living. Played hockey when it was open, went to the restaurant and movies when it was open. Most importantly for my family, we did even more outside activities than usual, I also went to the dog park every second day, socialized there. Saw friends and family outside of peak waves, trying to not put anybody in danger. So again, not sure why you're telling me this as you have no idea what I did or not.

Now regarding Covid deaths, these are the Canada numbers from Feb 21, 2022

Under 60 y/o : 2 540 (7.2%) Young
60-80 y/o : 11 242 (31.8%) Between Young and Old
80+ y/o : 21 545 (61.0%) Old

We're talking about a rich country with a very small population spread on the biggest territory. These numbers show that 39% of people who died from covid were under 80 years old... I am sorry but that is YOUNG in today's life. It is UNDER life expectancy. In the US, it shows that 25% of covid deaths were people under the age of 65.

My grandmother is 84, super healthy, eats well, has all her head and walks miles everyday. Age is relative, it's how you treat your spirit and your body. Today, you can certainly live a good life for a long time. Covid can cut that short, it's a NEW WAY of dying. It just adds to cancer and all other health problems. It's a pretty big deal.

Now if you want to dig the situation in other countries, it's going to be much bleaker than Canada. I have contacts who have contacts. I have been explained this in 2020, for some countries, the number of cases and deaths are not going to be even close to reality

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/india-covid-death-toll-1.6109639

I could go on and on but look at this, it shows that reality is not the same everywhere :

Covid-19 killed more people under 50 than any other age group: AIIMS study

Covid has been a disaster for the entire planet. We're just lucky to live in this privileged country. So when I see people taking the national capital in hostage because they're not having their way the same way spoiled kids do, it's frustrating. The more you know about the real world, the more frustrated you are.

 

[Beech]

Not sure why you're telling me all this and it's a hard read for me as my brain has a hard time computing this. Maybe it's just me but it feels more like stuff thrown into a blender, not a very structured argumentation.

But I'll try to answer. So it's not ME that needs to "move on", it's these anti-everything that need to come back to reality (or finally discover it). I am not the one calling/texting people trying to brainwash them into (taking or) not taking a vaccine. So lol about covid being an "old debate" it certainly continues for a lot of people. That we like it or not, it's not over, people are going to die from it, particularly non-vaccinated people. Like my 82 y/o great aunt who could die in the next few days because she refused the vaccine. Thankfully she looks like 65 and she's very healthy, she stands a chance.

"We need to move on to life", personally never stopped living. Played hockey when it was open, went to the restaurant and movies when it was open, most importantly for my family, we did even more outside activities than usual, also went to the dog park every second day, socialized there. Saw friends and family outside of peak waves to not put anybody in their closer family in danger. So again, not sure why you're telling me this when you have no idea what I am doing or not.

As for dying from covid, these are the Canada numbers from Feb 21, 2022

Under 60 y/o : 2 540 (7.2%)
60-80 y/o : 11 242 (31.8%)
80+ y/o : 21 545 (61.0%)

We're talking about a rich country with a very small population spread on the biggest territory. These numbers show that 39% of people who died from covid were under 80 years old... I am sorry but that is YOUNG in today's life. It is UNDER life expectancy. In the US, it shows that 25% of covid deaths were people under the age of 65.

My grandmother is 84, super healthy, eats well, has all her head and walks miles everyday. Age is relative, it's how you treat your spirit and your body. Today, you can certainly live a good life for a long time. Covid can cut that short, it's a NEW WAY of dying. It just adds to cancer and all other health problems. It's a pretty big deal.

The anti vaxxers are not going away. They belong to two groups
1) those that genuinely fear or otherwise oppose the vaccine (my guess 5-10% of society)
2) those looking to vent, to be contrarians, to transform the argument from "science and covid" to "social upheaval and left/right politics".. The Truckers had among them a large group of radical activists that simply piggy backed on this issue. In fact the unvaccinated truckers may have been as little as 10% of the total trucker community.

If anyone believes that our life is falling part (covid wise) thanks to 10% unvaccinated people. Please!! Now you address the science.

here is science. Per the Ontario government web site

almost 88% of all people over 70 have had a 3rd shot. yet they are still the principal victims of this virus

per the Ontario Public Health

take a look at who is dying. this number skews even more if they separated the 70-79.

per the governments web site

take a look at who is dying

The government, does not want to aggravate things, but I would venture that hospitalization is equally skewed, above 70, younger than 70.

And so, get mad at your government(s) for not dealing with them in specific manner. Get mad at life because it gave us a SELECTIVE virus. And we are angry because we feel some 25 year old is hurting us..when he is not.

What is hurting us? Our bodies do not retain immunity as we age...It is how we die to begin with. What is hurting us? The drug developers made a drug that works great on 4-69 year olds, but appears to be poor on 70 and above.

 

[Union2017]

The anti vaxxers are not going away. They belong to two groups
1) those that genuinely fear or otherwise oppose the vaccine (my guess 5-10% of society)
2) those looking to vent, to be contrarians, to transform the argument from "science and covid" to "social upheaval and left/right politics".. The Truckers had among them a large group of radical activists that simply piggy backed on this issue. In fact the unvaccinated truckers may have been as little as 10% of the total trucker community.

If anyone believes that our life is falling part (covid wise) thanks to 10% unvaccinated people. Please!! Now you address the science.

here is science. Per the Ontario government web site
View attachment 511897
almost 88% of all people over 70 have had a 3rd shot. yet they are still the principal victims of this virus

per the Ontario Public Health
View attachment 511898
take a look at who is dying. this number skews even more if they separated the 70-79.

per the governments web site
View attachment 511899
take a look at who is dying

The government, does not want to aggravate things, but I would venture that hospitalization is equally skewed, above 70, younger than 70.

And so, get mad at your government(s) for not dealing with them in specific manner. Get mad at life because it gave us a SELECTIVE virus. And we are angry because we feel some 25 year old is hurting us..when he is not.

What is hurting us? Our bodies do not retain immunity as we age...It is how we die to begin with. What is hurting us? The drug developers made a drug that works great on 4-69 year olds, but appears to be poor on 70 and above.

This is a wrong way of presenting things. The real question is how many people who are over 70 would succumb to this virus if they were not vaccinated. I guarantee you the number would be way higher than this. It's also the catch 22, if all measures are working as they should then people will say that we overreacted and virus is not that strong, because the dying percentage is low. But you know all this...

 

[Alfie11]

Enjoy yourselves while you have the opportunity. The rug will get pulled out from under you like it has before. I might try to make it to a Sens game for the first time in ~6 years. Might be worth the risk.

Based on last year, I'm fairly hopeful for spring and summer.

I worry about the fall. Government and health officials need to use this time to prep for another potential problem next fall/winter.

 

[Xspyrit]

HAL'S KITCHEN: Restaurants split over lifting mandates | Winnipeg Sun

It seems that it wasn't just the "government" who wanted mandates. Some people don't feel safe about this virus and it's totally within their rights. Instead, we only hear about the small portion who doesn't care and think we should have faced a pandemic without a vaccine or any restriction... (which would have been a freaking disaster)

The problem is you're relying on others to look after your safety. You should only rely on yourself to look after your own safety.

That has been my philosophy for a while. That's why I went into "lockdown" myself on March 8th. I don't need the government to tell me what to do. There was very little information at that moment so needed to take a step back to see what would surface. I followed the science so did what I had to do to not put anybody in danger. Once we got the vaccine, we were back to "normal" but still respected society rules because that's where our freedom stops and other people's freedom starts

I don't feel in danger (and haven't once I had more (real) information), but I'll still be careful and try to not catch this crap, just like I am not looking forward to catch the flu or any other virus. I have always been careful about corporal hygiene so there's nothing new here. For example, I never touch public doors with my hands.

I don't disagree with anything you've written other than the quoted sentence. What is government for, exactly, if not looking after its citizens' safety? That's pretty obviously the context in which I brought it up. As you'll see from the last line of my post you quoted I'm absolutely fine with a disagreement of opinion, so I'm not sure to whom exactly the rest of your post is addressed.

The amount of time, resource ($$$) and energy spent on saving lives and people safety in general pretty much confirms that the "government" might not be as evil as the narrative says.

 

[Union2017]

I think I am at the point where I would like to see a different approach when it comes to this. For example, all anti-vaxx people I know will never change their mind. Which is fine with me. Open up, remove all restrictions and let us live. If you come to the hospital and dying from COVID, but there are some people in the same situation waiting to be treated AND they are all vaccinated, you go to the back of the line. Sorry, but help yourself and others (God) will help you. Right? Why would my mom who is vaccinated and did everything to protect herself be in a line behind you who are perhaps 40 and decided "Bill Gates will enslave you", so you don't want to take a vaccine that was provided to you for free. Or you don't want to put "experimental" vaccine into your body (while smoking a black market cigarettes, like some folks I know). Sure, remove all restrictions, but everyone who supports these theories should sign a voucher that they will let all vaccinated folks ahead of them in the ER if they get sick. And yes, I would agree the same for people who abuse alcohol for example (which in a way is already done, since unless you've been sober for a while, you will not get a liver transplant). I would put this on a vote if I was Ford.

 

[jbeck5]

I think I am at the point where I would like to see a different approach when it comes to this. For example, all anti-vaxx people I know will never change their mind. Which is fine with me. Open up, remove all restrictions and let us live. If you come to the hospital and dying from COVID, but there are some people in the same situation waiting to be treated AND they are all vaccinated, you go to the back of the line. Sorry, but help yourself and others (God) will help you. Right? Why would my mom who is vaccinated and did everything to protect herself be in a line behind you who are perhaps 40 and decided "Bill Gates will enslave you", so you don't want to take a vaccine that was provided to you for free. Or you don't want to put "experimental" vaccine into your body (while smoking a black market cigarettes, like some folks I know). Sure, remove all restrictions, but everyone who supports these theories should sign a voucher that they will let all vaccinated folks ahead of them in the ER if they get sick. And yes, I would agree the same for people who abuse alcohol for example (which in a way is already done, since unless you've been sober for a while, you will not get a liver transplant). I would put this on a vote if I was Ford.

Lol god. Or Santa Claus, whatever.

 

[Union2017]

Lol god. Or Santa Claus, whatever.

Not a big religious person myself, but some people are and that's what they say.... is that all you took out of the entire post? Discussion about God? Cause we can open a new thread about that.

 

[Beech]

This is a wrong way of presenting things. The real question is how many people who are over 70 would succumb to this virus if they were not vaccinated. I guarantee you the number would be way higher than this. It's also the catch 22, if all measures are working as they should then people will say that we overreacted and virus is not that strong, because the dying percentage is low. But you know all this...

yes...I agree

but issue 1) age... We are so afraid of the elderly and of creating a separation in our society.

If the government let it be known that this is very heavily skewed towards the elderly, they are finished. Most people would turn their back. It is what government does. It averages, it combines.

This way, a 50 year old with little to fear, is averaged with an 85 year old and presto...The 50 year's fear climbs a bit, so he becomes co-operative. the 85 year old, relaxes.

in the Delta day, Facebook and e-mails would circulate, if something out there killed you at 2%, would you not react??????

take a look at where the 2% came from (Column F..this is diluted a tad because by Dec 21, 2021 we had been vaccinated. It was a tad higher in Dec of 2020).

a 50 year old = 0.61%
an 80 = 18.8%
a 90 = 28%

Let this be known... Have the average 50 year old say: no problem here...bye bye
Have the 80 or 90 year old say: I'm dead

The 70 plus year olds are vaccinated, almost 87% are triple vaxxed

almost 99.1% have had 2 shots and looked upon as being fully vaccinated by the government

Nothing changes...Past about 70, our bodies fail us. Our immunity goes. It is how we age and die. This virus is prying on that human weakness...Pfizer et all, need to focus on an age specific vaccine. One that can maintain its efficacy for 6 months and more. And one that is slightly better.

And we need to stop being angry at 25 or 50 year olds...they have little to do with it.

 

[Union2017]

yes...I agree

but issue 1) age... We are so afraid of the elderly and of creating a separation in our society.

If the government let it be known that this is very heavily skewed towards the elderly, they are finished. Most people would turn their back. It is what government does. It averages, it combines.

This way, a 50 year old with little to fear, is averaged with an 85 year old and presto...The 50 year's fear climbs a bit, so he becomes co-operative. the 85 year old, relaxes.

in the Delta day, Facebook and e-mails would circulate, if something out there killed you at 2%, would you not react??????
View attachment 511902
take a look at where the 2% came from (Column F..this is diluted a tad because by Dec 21, 2021 we had been vaccinated. It was a tad higher in Dec of 2020).

a 50 year old = 0.61%
an 80 = 18.8%
a 90 = 28%

Let this be known... Have the average 50 year old say: no problem here...bye bye
Have the 80 or 90 year old say: I'm dead

The 70 plus year olds are vaccinated, almost 87% are triple vaxxed
View attachment 511904
almost 99.1% have had 2 shots and looked upon as being fully vaccinated by the government

Nothing changes...Past about 70, our bodies fail us. Our immunity goes. It is how we age and die. This virus is prying on that human weakness...Pfizer et all, need to focus on an age specific vaccine. One that can maintain its efficacy for 6 months and more. And one that is slightly better.

And we need to stop being angry at 25 or 50 year olds...they have little to do with it.

I don't think there is such thing as an age specific vaccine, but am all for finding a better protection in general, or meds that will help in case you get sick, definitely. The problem is not with the 25 year old. I think most "kids" who are in their 20s are vaccinated. I honestly think (from my own experience) is that the age group of the people who are not vaccinated because (Bill Gates, experiments, aliens etc.) are mostly in a 35-50 group. But I might be wrong, this is just my personal experience.