Player Discussion Linus Ullmark (G)

[coladin]

Stunned. And overjoyed

 

[Gil Gunderson]

In the world where former Sen Joey D'accord gets 5 x $5M, $8.25M for Ullmark seems reasonable.

Ehn, Daccord is three years younger and just put up a great season.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

Saw the news real quick and my initial thought was:

- That's high.
- But he's a Vezina and the team got him for a term friendly 4 years

So I'm kinda on the fence on this on the basis of this:

I get him having won the Vezina. I also get that he was signing in a place where it would be a premium to sign. I accept that.

But the nagging feeling that he did 'lose' the competition to Swayman for the net last year, combined with them accepting to trade him to Ottawa and take on Korpisalo, just throws a lot of danger flags to me.

Ottawa needed to do this. I fully agree. But ho boy, that's hefty. I'm hoping this works out for the club cause this club's been bitten by bad goaltending since Anderson and it'd be nice for the club to have that issue be in the backseat. So far, in the small window we did see, he's solid.

But I'm in the 'cautiously optimistic' window.

Also, to whoever said that if you include this year it's more like 7.6x5 year: that's not how the contract works at all. Yes, you can average it, but his hit will be 8.25 when that contract goes. And the AAV is way more important than salary being pushed out. Cap space in a cap world is way more important than the money that gets pushed out.

Also noting that this has a full no move clause to boot for the entirety of the contract so Ottawa is saddled to this wagon at least past July 1st of next year. I'm hoping for the club this 'really' works out.

Again, the most I can go with in terms of how I feel about this is "Cautiously optimistic" but I've seen this club get burnt on goalies in the past so there is always going to be that nagging annoyance.

Eternally realistic/borderline pessimistic, I am. lol

Ullmark would have gotten this exact money anywhere at this moment in time unless a team was willing to offer him like a 6-8 year term which is much riskier for a 32 year old than whatever money you hand out to him for 4.

 

[Inf4mous0ne]

Saw the news real quick and my initial thought was:

- That's high.
- But he's a Vezina and the team got him for a term friendly 4 years

So I'm kinda on the fence on this on the basis of this:

I get him having won the Vezina. I also get that he was signing in a place where it would be a premium to sign. I accept that.

But the nagging feeling that he did 'lose' the competition to Swayman for the net last year, combined with them accepting to trade him to Ottawa and take on Korpisalo, just throws a lot of danger flags to me.

Ottawa needed to do this. I fully agree. But ho boy, that's hefty. I'm hoping this works out for the club cause this club's been bitten by bad goaltending since Anderson and it'd be nice for the club to have that issue be in the backseat. So far, in the small window we did see, he's solid.

But I'm in the 'cautiously optimistic' window.

Also, to whoever said that if you include this year it's more like 7.6x5 year: that's not how the contract works at all. Yes, you can average it, but his hit will be 8.25 when that contract goes. And the AAV is way more important than salary being pushed out. Cap space in a cap world is way more important than the money that gets pushed out.

Also noting that this has a full no move clause to boot for the entirety of the contract so Ottawa is saddled to this wagon at least past July 1st of next year. I'm hoping for the club this 'really' works out.

Again, the most I can go with in terms of how I feel about this is "Cautiously optimistic" but I've seen this club get burnt on goalies in the past so there is always going to be that nagging annoyance.

Eternally realistic/borderline pessimistic, I am. lol

It's fine to not want to be too optimistic, but if your pessimism comes from suspecting Boston knows better/has a plan, you might have missed the last few weeks (including last night's game ).

 

[BankStreetParade]

In the world where former Sen Joey D'accord gets 5 x $5M, $8.25M for Ullmark seems reasonable.

Daccord is younger, played 50 games (versus 40 for Ullmark) and put up 2.46gaa and .916sv% compared to Ullmark's 2.55gaa and .915sv%. We're paying for a longer track record but there's no way if you removed the names that you'd suggest the second stat line is worth $3.25M more per season.

 

[Masterplan]

Daccord is younger, played 50 games (versus 40 for Ullmark) and put up 2.46gaa and .916sv% compared to Ullmark's 2.55gaa and .915sv%. We're paying for a longer track record but there's no way if you removed the names that you'd suggest the second stat line is worth $3.25M more per season.

If you shine the light at just the right angle....lol.

 

[SlyDawg]

I'm not sure it's quite as cut-and-dry as this. My understanding is that Boston chose to move forward with Swayman because he's younger and playing at a high level, as opposed to Ullmark who's older and playing at a high level. I never saw it as a negative against Ullmark, personally, and I think the messaging coming out of Boston since Ullmark was moved kind of corroborates that view.

Oh I'm not saying it was the wrong move. But what was obvious is that Ullmark had lost the net to Swayman by the end of the year/playoffs and they went with him. Ullmark became expendable. I absolutely agree with you that it most likely is due to age that this was done. I fully agree with that. I just tend to be a bit more cautious when someone loses the net in a battle. It's probably nothing major in terms of the type of work Ullmark will and can provide to Ottawa in the nets, but it makes me curious they gave him the same value as Swayman.

Again, it's probably a combo of signing in Ottawa due to the taxation system and it not being a preferred market so they had to high ball it to Swayman's level. Even if age wise, we could potentially see a bit of a decline as this contract gets older. (I doubt it but funnier things have happened.)

Ullmark would have gotten this exact money anywhere at this moment in time unless a team was willing to offer him like a 6-8 year term which is much riskier for a 32 year old than whatever money you hand out to him for 4.

It's entirely possible, yes! Anyone of the Canadian teams that need a goalie would have been able to give that kind of contract, and most likely the US too. It was more of a curious notion that a) the player lost the net to another player, probably due to his age but Swayman was considered the better player at that time but b) was given the same AAV.



Let me clarify: I get and understand why they got to that value. And it's not a bad value at all for a vezina winner. I'm just saying that my first reaction was: "Oof. That's high."

But that's the way that premiere goalies go I suppose. We'll be having to accept that. Wait till Shersterkin signs his contract which will look much bigger than this one.

It's mostly just me being paranoid of giving that much money to a goaltender. I'm sure i'm just being overly pessimistic and i 100% agree it's on me.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

In the world where former Sen Joey D'accord gets 5 x $5M, $8.25M for Ullmark seems reasonable.

Wait, what? D'accord got a 5x5 deal? Wow, good for him.

 

[SlyDawg]

It's fine to not want to be too optimistic, but if your pessimism comes from suspecting Boston knows better/has a plan, you might have missed the last few weeks (including last night's game ).

LOL not at all. 6 on Korpi was one of those "yeah we've seen this story before"

It's less Boston knowing something and more Ottawa providing an AAV to someone who Boston decided was a) expendable and b) the worse of the two goalies they had so they gave the net to Swayman.

Again, cooooompletely on me. lol

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Daccord carried Seattle last year, and they would have made the playoffs had he not gotten hurt. It's a risky contract, but he had a Vezina tier season. He also has a long pro resume. He didn't come out of nowhere. It's still a very risky deal, but they are likely looking at it like if he has another season like last one, he is going to ask for Linus Ullmark money as a UFA.

People don't seem to respect or understand the goalie market. If a forward who had been pegging away had a season where they were on pace for 40-50 goals, and signed for 2nd line money, people would say it's a good gamble. That's the equivalent to what Daccord did aa a goalie last year.

As far as Ullmark goes, this contract puts him in the 6-10 type wheelhouse for top paid goalies next year after Shestetkin gets paid. You can break it down however you want, but that seems appropriate. Yes, in a perfect world, maybe he comes in at 7.XX instead of 8.XX, but that's the Senators tax. They gave him more money and a NMC to get the term down, I assume. Add in the Senators tax and it makes complete sense.

There is a difference between acknowledging some risk of a contract and straight up being wrong about where the contract fits in market wise. Some people on the main board are discussing it like they have Ullmark 10M-11M. All it takes is to load up Puckpedia and look at the goalie cap hits ranked and it's pretty obvious where the market is, and where it is going.

 

[Knave]

I think people are cautious because we've been burned so much in the past.

That being said Ullmark has been a starter on good teams, on bad teams and we haven't seen something like we saw with Korpisalo last year.

If we get some level of stability like we did with Craig Anderson it will all be worth it.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Wait, what? D'accord got a 5x5 deal? Wow, good for him.

He was Seattle's MVP last year and is a pending UFA.

5M is near the lower end of legitimate starter money. It's a risky contract, but if he has another season like last year, he is going to ask for a lot more. He just has to be a reliable below average starter to be worth that. If he is anything close to what he has shown, it will be a huge steal.

He is 29 when the contract starts. So he is a seasoned pro. It's just taken him longer to get there.

 

[Hale The Villain]

This is a damn good deal.

Figured it would taken 7x7 or something like that to convince Ullmark to stay.

The 4 year term is the best part. I'll gladly pay an extra 1M or so a year to have the contract end in his mid-30s instead of late-30s.

Fantastic job by Staios.

 

[SensFactor]

Great deal! He's a stud goalie and next year we should target a young good goalie as backup.

 

[senswon]

Great deal! He's a stud goalie and next year we should target a young good goalie as backup.

Will soogard get some time learning from ullmark?
Or will we bounce him like daccord and gustaffson?

Like to see him do less scrambling// being out of position and work on his glove

 

[SensFactor]

Will soogard get some time learning from ullmark?
Or will we bounce him like daccord and gustaffson?

Like to see him do less scrambling// being out of position and work on his glove

I like Soogard but im not a believer in him long term. We should have gone after Bussi from Boston who was on waivers a few days ago.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

Oh I'm not saying it was the wrong move. But what was obvious is that Ullmark had lost the net to Swayman by the end of the year/playoffs and they went with him. Ullmark became expendable. I absolutely agree with you that it most likely is due to age that this was done. I fully agree with that. I just tend to be a bit more cautious when someone loses the net in a battle. It's probably nothing major in terms of the type of work Ullmark will and can provide to Ottawa in the nets, but it makes me curious they gave him the same value as Swayman.

Again, it's probably a combo of signing in Ottawa due to the taxation system and it not being a preferred market so they had to high ball it to Swayman's level. Even if age wise, we could potentially see a bit of a decline as this contract gets older. (I doubt it but funnier things have happened.)





It's entirely possible, yes! Anyone of the Canadian teams that need a goalie would have been able to give that kind of contract, and most likely the US too. It was more of a curious notion that a) the player lost the net to another player, probably due to his age but Swayman was considered the better player at that time but b) was given the same AAV.



Let me clarify: I get and understand why they got to that value. And it's not a bad value at all for a vezina winner. I'm just saying that my first reaction was: "Oof. That's high."

But that's the way that premiere goalies go I suppose. We'll be having to accept that. Wait till Shersterkin signs his contract which will look much bigger than this one.

It's mostly just me being paranoid of giving that much money to a goaltender. I'm sure i'm just being overly pessimistic and i 100% agree it's on me.

Very hard to fault you for the concern given the carousel of mid goalies we've had and extended prematurely! I've got a good feeling about this one — partially due to pedigree, and partially due to my faith in our ability to identify talent relative to the Melnyk/Dorion years.

But I can appreciate the cautious optimism and cap concerns. Totally valid. Up to Ullmark now to prove he'll live up to the contract.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

This is a damn good deal.

Figured it would taken 7x7 or something like that to convince Ullmark to stay.

The 4 year term is the best part. I'll gladly pay an extra 1M or so a year to have the contract end in his mid-30s instead of late-30s.

Fantastic job by Staios.

According to Puckpedia, he has a NMC for each year of the contract.

So I assume the logic of the deal was that he got maybe 1M more per season and complete control to go shorter term.

The only thing he did not get seems to be signing bonuses. So they could technically buy him out. It wouldn't shock me if it is later confirmed that the contract has a small amount of signing bonuses per season.

I also like going shorter term better. While I think it is possible that he could age well into a 7 year deal, it wouldn't be worth the risk to get a slight discount on the AAV.

 

[SpezDispenser]

This is a damn good deal.

Figured it would taken 7x7 or something like that to convince Ullmark to stay.

The 4 year term is the best part. I'll gladly pay an extra 1M or so a year to have the contract end in his mid-30s instead of late-30s.

Fantastic job by Staios.

I think most of thought it would take at least 42 million spread out however he wanted really, so this is a nice bargain IMO.

EDIT: I also think he's one of the true captains on the team with Brady and Giroux. They'll all have a loud say on things.

 

[senswon]

I like Soogard but im not a believer in him long term. We should have gone after Bussi from Boston who was on waivers a few days ago.

I agree on Bussi...still unsure on what soogard could be feel like him spending time with a vezina guy that has the teachings of the bobfather could be useful.

Cant see us sticking with forsberg after his new legs and still a habit of letting in goals in the first/ final 2 min of every period.


So relieved we have ullmark after the last couple years

 

[SlyDawg]

Very hard to fault you for the concern given the carousel of mid goalies we've had and extended prematurely! I've got a good feeling about this one — partially due to pedigree, and partially due to my faith in our ability to identify talent relative to the Melnyk/Dorion years.

But I can appreciate the cautious optimism and cap concerns. Totally valid. Up to Ullmark now to prove he'll live up to the contract.

I think that's a huge situation:

The Melnyk/Dorion years really soured a lot of Sens fans on them being able to deliver anything. So much that most Sens fans are on the fence about 'anything' the team does. They lost a lot of clout in terms of knowing what they were doing during those years.

Look, not for me to slag on someone who passed away but it was time for the old owner to step away and move on from it when it was clear financially he didn't want to invest much in the team 'and' his health was declining. His stubborness to stay in the business (which I get, you only have 32 owners that are in the NHL. It's a title that anyone would love) hurt the standing with fans and people who cover the team.

I just take a rather cautious approach. I would have waited a bit on this myself, if i decide right now to "armchair gm" this. Give him 10 games. See how it does. 10 games would not have flux'ed the price that much even if he got 3 shutouts in it. It would have just solidified a bit of the idea that this is definitely the way to go. We have two games in preseason in a new Sens system that's being established. I'm cautious about this. Yes, previous seasons accounting, there's nothing flagrant that would say he's gonna be a bad goalie for Ottawa.

But it's so fast to give that much money.

But again, comes back to me saying; i completely understand the why they did this.

 

[TheNewEra]

im not too worried about the cap

just on a quick glance
we spend about 40.5 million on 8 forwards (important extension is greig)

we spend 24.7 million on 4 dmen (important extension is kleven but get the added benefit of yak on elc)

8.25 on ullmark with no backup

indicates we have spent 73.45 in cap. With an estimate of the salary cap being 90 million it gives us 16.5 million to sign at minimum 4 forwards, 2 dmen and a goalie. Yak and ostapchuk making the team would give us about 14.5 to sign 3 forwards, a dman and a goalie. Very doable imo

 

[bicboi64]

Autumn of Staios is happening (feels weird to say Fall of Staios).

I thought we'd have to pay up for 8 years, but this deal is dope! It's one think to give out a high aav for someone who was on the decline like Murray, but Ullmark has the stats to show this is a very safe signing.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I think that's a huge situation:

The Melnyk/Dorion years really soured a lot of Sens fans on them being able to deliver anything. So much that most Sens fans are on the fence about 'anything' the team does. They lost a lot of clout in terms of knowing what they were doing during those years.

Look, not for me to slag on someone who passed away but it was time for the old owner to step away and move on from it when it was clear financially he didn't want to invest much in the team 'and' his health was declining. His stubborness to stay in the business (which I get, you only have 32 owners that are in the NHL. It's a title that anyone would love) hurt the standing with fans and people who cover the team.

I just take a rather cautious approach. I would have waited a bit on this myself, if i decide right now to "armchair gm" this. Give him 10 games. See how it does. 10 games would not have flux'ed the price that much even if he got 3 shutouts in it. It would have just solidified a bit of the idea that this is definitely the way to go. We have two games in preseason in a new Sens system that's being established. I'm cautious about this. Yes, previous seasons accounting, there's nothing flagrant that would say he's gonna be a bad goalie for Ottawa.

But it's so fast to give that much money.

But again, comes back to me saying; i completely understand the why they did this.

Ullmark at least has the track record statistically, on 2 different teams, to mostly justify this deal, even if the workload was low. This isn't like signing Korpisalo off some ridiculous outlier UFA season despite a long track record of performing poorly and being outperformed by his tandem partner behind the same teams. This is a calculated bet based on reality this time.

 

[swiftwin]

We were able to unload Murray and Korpi for pretty cheap. We could do the same if Ullmark also shits the bed. But he won't.