This is D+2 for Lias. Next year is D+3 for Lias.
In D+2 JT Miller had 23 pts in 42 games in the AHL. In D+3 he more or less doubled that and went to a PPG in the AHL. In D+4, JT Miller had 15 pts in 18 games before leaving the AHL for good after a call-up.
Artem Anisimov made got to the AHL in his D+2 season. Had 43 pts in 74 games. In his D+3 he had 81 pts in 80 games in the AHL. He played with Parenteau who had a great year and that HFD team was good, but roughly the numbers are of course comparable. But without that support its maybe 60-70 pts in 80 games instead of 80 in 80.
In 2017, 21 forwards was picked in the 1st round. Only two have scored more than 0.5 PPG in the NHL. Only six in total have established themselves in any capacity as top 9 forwards scoring at like a 25-35 pts/80 games pace not looking at Hirscher and Pettersson.
Cody Glass, Rasmussen, Owen Tippet, Vilardi, Necas, Suzuki, Brannstrom, Norris, Yamamoto, Vesalainen, Poehling, Frost, Bowers, Tolvanen and Kostin -- 15 of 21 forwards including Lias -- has not yet established themselves as producing top 9 forwards in the NHL. If we close the book on the 2017 draft today and draw the bust line of where the kids are right now -- I never want to see us trade a player for a 1st round pick again. That total bust rate would be insane. That is not to say that some guys will fly past Lias early next season, some will, he is a work in progress, but kids need time.
Lias needs to start next sesason in the AHL. Take that big step from being a contributing player to being a goto player in the AHL after a good off-season. His top speed is improved, but he needs to learn to keep more speed under his skate and especially come out of situations with more speed. Babcock is banning his guys from finishing checks after the initial sequence of a shift, you lose all speed when you finish a check. Lias goes into so many situations in a way that results in a full stop. He can also work a lot more on his agility.
Nobody can pretend that Lias is "good" in the NHL right now, but he isn't totally off-side either. If he can iron out the above, take that step that both JT Miller and Anisimov did in their D+3 season, it will instantly show at the NHL level. Kids make big progress at this age, its easy to forget, but I remember how all of these kids were labelled as busts (JT Miller, Kreider and co) at certain points. With progress, a bit stronger support down the line, more confidence, and so forth my best projection is that we are getting a good and valuable player down the line. And I don't see any reason for his curve to stop there.
Is this a projection that won't age well? I call it like I see it and this is definitely my best bet. I am not always that positive, I've often been accused of the opposite.
