OT: Lets talk about stocks (Part 3)

[SOLR]

wealthy people have been trying to flee China since they embraced capitalism. this is nothing new.

but hey, i guess the "financial implosion" will happen any day now right?

Yeah, I mean I just know more than 50 of these people and in the 2010 they were proud to be Chinese and building their own country, in China, now they are trying to save their mothers. The numbers are much much bigger now (3-4x).

Everybody knows the gig is up. Sorry, no more easy propaganda to tell, all the news are absolutely dreadful. You can fix it, there's still time, but it's not by arguing over data with me on a forum you'll achieve that.

Even Singapore is closing the doors shut.

 

[SOLR]

100 billion USD spent is nothing. A drop in the bucket. We saw what Intel did with their subsidies and the CHIPS Act (fail and fail and fail again).

Ok care to go in the details on that. That will be funny. Like explain how they misused the subsidies.
Hint, the factory paid by the subsidies is not finished yet. The Chips act is also moving TSMC/Samsung to the US continent, rapidly expanding Micron and Texas Instruments, while giving these firms the capital to invest in allies like Mexico and Europe (they are).

That graph isn't complete, it's one of 10 more for the US and Mexico. We are not rebuilding China here, all this industrial reshoring it's just to supply NA, Europe and Australia.

India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia are exploding in investments, they will be more the replacement for China for cheap goods. By 2040 we can probably near shore cheap goods as well because of robotics/AI/3D printing.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

Yeah, I mean I just know more than 50 of these people and in the 2010 they were proud to be Chinese and building their own country, in China, now they are trying to save their mothers. The numbers are much much bigger now (3-4x).

Everybody knows the gig is up. Sorry, no more easy propaganda to tell, all the news are absolutely dreadful. You can fix it, there's still time, but it's not by arguing over data with me on a forum you'll achieve that.

Even Singapore is closing the doors shut.

alright, care to make another prediction then?

 

[SOLR]

alright, care to make another prediction then?

Nothing left to predict for now.
I predict I'll be drinking some Italian wines next month on location.

 

[Hope Of Glory]

Yeah I gotta side with SOLR on that one. China has some pretty bad systemic issues that will be hard to get over. Putting a date on a collapse is a fool's game though. These things don't happen overnight and in the rare cases they do, there aren't usually signs its about to happen.

On top of the huge demographic problem happening before the country fully reached "developped" status (amongst other things), Xi purged the leadership of the country from anyone with any kind of critical thinking. Only Yes Men remain and he appointed himself for life. Authoritarian regimes can't sustain real growth in the long term, the inevitable corruption ends soaking up too much ressources, as do inefficient economies run by oligarch. Especially with a huge population decline on the horizon (which has probably already started has China admitted it overcounted its population by 10s of million, mostly of young, consuming age). They also haven't even transitionned to a consumption based economy like mpst advanced countries. This is a recipe for disaster, at the very least in the long run.

Also, even if China theoritically could get out of their mess, I don't think Xi will be willing to go through short/medium term pain to restart the slower, longer, healthier sustained growth the country could have. He may not even have the brains/HR to pull it off anymore. Dictatorships can last a long time but the growth will always be limited, albeit spectacular on the short term sometimes.

 

[Thebeastoftheeast]

Finally got around to it and got in on Nvidia today.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

Nothing left to predict for now.
I predict I'll be drinking some Italian wines next month on location.

yeah, i would back out too. didn't work out so well last time. saluti!

 

[Andrei79]

Ok care to go in the details on that. That will be funny. Like explain how they misused the subsidies.
Hint, the factory paid by the subsidies is not finished yet. The Chips act is also moving TSMC/Samsung to the US continent, rapidly expanding Micron and Texas Instruments, while giving these firms the capital to invest in allies like Mexico and Europe (they are).

That graph isn't complete, it's one of 10 more for the US and Mexico. We are not rebuilding China here, all this industrial reshoring it's just to supply NA, Europe and Australia.

India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia are exploding in investments, they will be more the replacement for China for cheap goods. By 2040 we can probably near shore cheap goods as well because of robotics/AI/3D printing.

View attachment 899535

Curious to know if you recommend any readings on the subject (China, global manufacturing, etc).

 

[ReHabs]

Also, even if China theoritically could get out of their mess

What mess? Their massive economy grows year on year by several percentages, they have political stability, and they have a lot of influence on global trade due to their being the largest and only relevant manufacturing power on the planet.

They’re producing in-demand cars at a fraction of the price other car manufacturers charge and that’s just getting started. They’re an absolute leader in solar and green tech. They have incredible supply chains and no issues with lead times.

Some of you need to participate in your local or regional business economy to get a comparative experience. I ordered a few pieces of furniture and was told it would take up to six months — they just don’t have the bandwidth or manufacturing capacity. A few years ago we ordered a car from MB and was told it would take 13 months (!) and that’s from Germany where they are meant to have their stuff together (it did take 13 months in the end).

Like I said, China-hawks need to have an honest reflection of the things they’re saying because it does not reflect reality.

 

[ReHabs]

Yeah, I mean I just know more than 50 of these people and in the 2010 they were proud to be Chinese and building their own country, in China, now they are trying to save their mothers. The numbers are much much bigger now (3-4x).

This is a common trait in ascendant economies and also irrelevant.

Everybody knows the gig is up. Sorry, no more easy propaganda to tell, all the news are absolutely dreadful. You can fix it, there's still time, but it's not by arguing over data with me on a forum you'll achieve that.

Even Singapore is closing the doors shut.

What is up? Be specific.

Ok care to go in the details on that. That will be funny. Like explain how they misused the subsidies.

Did you not see the Intel news?

Hint, the factory paid by the subsidies is not finished yet. The Chips act is also moving TSMC/Samsung to the US continent, rapidly expanding Micron and Texas Instruments, while giving these firms the capital to invest in allies like Mexico and Europe (they are).

This is all hope and cope — I want it to happen btw because it’s good for the world to have more opportunities and options and competition — but on one hand you insist everything China is ‘easy propaganda’ and on the other you’re saying things like “Mexico will have FDI!” which IS easy propaganda because it is meaningless.

You should know there’s a lot of room between announcing some nebulous things and seeing them in effect and seeing them actually work.

India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia are exploding in investments, they will be more the replacement for China for cheap goods. By 2040 we can probably near shore cheap goods as well because of robotics/AI/3D printing.

Heard this before. India can’t even make phone cases. Global industrial production wants the cheapest possible solutions and they have failed to get a foothold in India because of India’s myriad problems.

Once again: you go doom and gloom about China (a non-stop ascendant economy) and then casually cite Mexico and India as future powerhouse economies as if we can’t know better.

I think you’re duplicitous about the reasons your Chinese based businesses failed. And in the context of stocks and global markets, I’m more than a bit jaded by China-hawks who’ve failed every year in their bitter predictions. Meanwhile China continues to grow and innovate and produce high quality and high value goods.

 

[ReHabs]

Jan-July 2024

Chinese exports ($2 trillion usd) up 4%, trade surplus ($520 billion usd) up 8%.

Can we be real and talk about how to engage and participate with this instead of having to listen to those who’ve failed and gotten everything wrong every day for the past thirty years?

 

[Corky]

Yeah I gotta side with SOLR on that one. China has some pretty bad systemic issues that will be hard to get over. Putting a date on a collapse is a fool's game though. These things don't happen overnight and in the rare cases they do, there aren't usually signs its about to happen.

On top of the huge demographic problem happening before the country fully reached "developped" status (amongst other things), Xi purged the leadership of the country from anyone with any kind of critical thinking. Only Yes Men remain and he appointed himself for life. Authoritarian regimes can't sustain real growth in the long term, the inevitable corruption ends soaking up too much ressources, as do inefficient economies run by oligarch. Especially with a huge population decline on the horizon (which has probably already started has China admitted it overcounted its population by 10s of million, mostly of young, consuming age). They also haven't even transitionned to a consumption based economy like mpst advanced countries. This is a recipe for disaster, at the very least in the long run.

Also, even if China theoritically could get out of their mess, I don't think Xi will be willing to go through short/medium term pain to restart the slower, longer, healthier sustained growth the country could have. He may not even have the brains/HR to pull it off anymore. Dictatorships can last a long time but the growth will always be limited, albeit spectacular on the short term sometimes.

Is this about China or Bergevin’s rebuild?

 

[HuGort]

People gotta start having kids again to help perpetuate this unsustainable runaway system!!!

Blame it on Elon Musk

 

[SOLR]

What mess? Their massive economy grows year on year by several percentages, they have political stability, and they have a lot of influence on global trade due to their being the largest and only relevant manufacturing power on the planet.

They’re producing in-demand cars at a fraction of the price other car manufacturers charge and that’s just getting started. They’re an absolute leader in solar and green tech. They have incredible supply chains and no issues with lead times.

Some of you need to participate in your local or regional business economy to get a comparative experience. I ordered a few pieces of furniture and was told it would take up to six months — they just don’t have the bandwidth or manufacturing capacity. A few years ago we ordered a car from MB and was told it would take 13 months (!) and that’s from Germany where they are meant to have their stuff together (it did take 13 months in the end).

Like I said, China-hawks need to have an honest reflection of the things they’re saying because it does not reflect reality.

False, according to parts of their own data (factory starts, workers employed etc.) they have not grown since 2018. They always say they've grown by 5%, now nobody believes that in the business community, anywhere. They are probably deflating by 5% of year is my sense.

China’s economy is slowing down. What gives?

China’s economy, explained by an expert.

www.vox.com

China Halts Publication of Youth Unemployment Report as Numbers Hit Record High

China's youth unemployment hit a record high in April with 20.4% of 16- to 24-year-olds unable to find jobs, the worst rate since the country's National Statistics Bureau started publishing it in 2018. Then came May, 20.8%, followed by June, 21.3%. In July, the government stopped publishing...

www.voanews.com

Political stability, wow, that's ridiculous. Xi just killed / disappeared more than 10,000 of his competitors in the last 5 years. How big do you think the target on his back is. Unless you call North Korea "stable" as well. China is anything but stable, that's why the rich who can leave do.

China’s Xi goes full Stalin with purge

In a sign of instability in Beijing’s top ranks, foreign policy and defense officials are vanishing as Xi roots out perceived enemies.

www.politico.eu

Cars? do you really think there's any future there when everybody reacts like this:

Chinese electric car makers hit with new European Union tariffs

The move poses a challenge to Beijing, which hopes EVs will help revive the country's flagging economy.

www.bbc.com

Opinion: Chinese EVs aren’t just an economic threat – they are a security risk

High-tech goods and services that collect data, images, and other information need to be scrutinized

www.theglobeandmail.com

China expert talks dark side of Chinese auto industry: Spying, slave labor, killing the U.S. car market

Author and China expert Gordon Chang spoke about the various dangers that the Chinese electric vehicle industry poses to Americans and the rest of the world.

www.foxbusiness.com

Nobody has any trust left in the Chinese system.
Covid was the last straw.

Yes it will take a long time to get stuff for a while. Local businesses will spring up, local manufacturers will start to succeed. Tons of stories like this: Duvaltex: investissement de 15,8 M$ pour l’automatisation de son usine de Saint-Georges

70 M$ pour une nouvelle usine de fertilisants agricoles à Tring-Jonction

L’entreprise KSM a obtenu des contributions financières totalisant 26 M$ de la part des gouvernements provincial et fédéral ainsi que d’Investissement Québec.

mabeauce.com

After 5-7 years will have everything we need, we'll have quality stuff again. We've restarted to industrialized in 2021, it's a 10 years process. The liberals are currently in the way of real progress with their anti-energy stance (even if the energy is green lol).

 

[ReHabs]

False, according to parts of their own data (factory starts, workers employed etc.) they have not grown since 2018. They always say they've grown by 5%, now nobody believes that in the business community, anywhere. They are probably deflating by 5% of year is my sense.

Sure thing, the industrial powerhouse of the planet is deflating. Meanwhile the GDP of Ireland is is over 500 billion, eh?

Political stability, wow, that's ridiculous. Xi just killed / disappeared more than 10,000 of his competitors in the last 5 years. How big do you think the target on his back is. Unless you call North Korea "stable" as well. China is anything but stable, that's why the rich who can leave do.

China is extremely stable economically. No amount of politicizing will change that and I'm not interested in talking about geo-politics. There's opportunities to be had with China and you people constantly want everybody to miss out.

Cars? do you really think there's any future there when everybody reacts like this:

Funny, most see it the other way: China's domestic market will be taken over nearly entirely by Chinese cars. Foreign firms used to love selling to China, now they're squeezed out and losing income because they couldn't innovate on EVs and prices.

Nobody has any trust left in the Chinese system.
Covid was the last straw.

Seems like you're speaking for yourself once again.

Yes it will take a long time to get stuff for a while. Local businesses will spring up, local manufacturers will start to succeed. Tons of stories like this: Duvaltex: investissement de 15,8 M$ pour l’automatisation de son usine de Saint-Georges

70 M$ pour une nouvelle usine de fertilisants agricoles à Tring-Jonction

L’entreprise KSM a obtenu des contributions financières totalisant 26 M$ de la part des gouvernements provincial et fédéral ainsi que d’Investissement Québec.

mabeauce.com

After 5-7 years will have everything we need, we'll have quality stuff again. We've restarted to industrialized in 2021, it's a 10 years process. The liberals are currently in the way of real progress with their anti-energy stance (even if the energy is green lol).

15m CAD, wow... a massive investment... I wish them luck.

Maybe in ten years you can say I told ya so. Bu there is no point saying it today, every day for the past 30 years.

 

[SOLR]

Curious to know if you recommend any readings on the subject (China, global manufacturing, etc).

I read the economic data from the agri industry a lot, it's very dry and reliable. The wall street journal is sufficient to know what is going on here at a high level (looking at the announcement in the 3-10 billion factory range, you know that the small factories are following the big ones), when Apple is leaving China...that's about as stark a litmus test you can have knowing how big was Apple advantage in China.

Because China has a big economic advantage in material processing
1) Slave workforce in concentration camps
2) No pollution limits whatsoever to reduce the cost of processing lithium and others materials.

So if you go back 5 years, everything was going to China. Since Covid every country went "oh shit, I need some stuff too" and then the Americans decided to leave completely along with the Japanese/Koreans as soon as the Chinese started to play with their military toys. What is going on is a military-commanded economic withdrawal from China (imo)

And then the Americans began to notice as they reindustrialized (a lot of that is happening in Mexico) that they could actually cut their cost vs. producing in China (2020 technology better than 1960 tech, NO WAY!?). That put the whole thing in absolute overdrive.

Northern Mexicans are about to be richer than most Canadians.

 

[SOLR]

Seems like you're speaking for yourself once again.

Lol ok, it will be fun to look at your posts in 2-4 years.

Dictators are liars. The fact that you believe a dictator isn't a fact I'm going to forget and forgive any time soon.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/350051528721174623-0050022018/original/Nightlights.pdf

A study of lights at night suggests dictators lie about economic growth

Satellite data hints at the scale of their deception

www.economist.com

China's chip industry crisis: Over 10,000 firms close amid economic challenges

China's semiconductor industry sees a record decline, with over 10,000 chip companies closing in 2023 amid sanctions and market challenges.

readwrite.com

Dongguan’s Industrial Woes: China’s Manufacturing Sector Faces Tough Time

Once a symbol of China’s industrial prowess, the storied manufacturing center now reflects the sector’s growing challenges.

thediplomat.com

etc. etc. etc.

 

[ReHabs]

Lol ok, it will be fun to look at your posts in 2-4 years

So far it's been fun to look at your posts going back years, it seems.

Dictators are liars. The fact that you believe a dictator isn't a fact I'm going to forget and forgive any time soon.

Okay. Much like how Canada retains business relations with Saudi Arabia, China, Israel, the US, etc. I'm just trying to learn about and to do business wherever and however I can. In this context, I'm not interested in geopolitics. I've invested in the Chinese market and sold for a profit -- except Daqo, which has been a loss but I'm holding -- and will seek to discuss opportunities here wherever possible.

The most I've lost has been on a Montreal-based company which I will not name. It's been a near catastrophic loss and this company seems incapable of raising investor confidence, having been delisted from NASDAQ due to share price underperformance. So I'm not interested in reading yet another screed about the evils of oriental China when the biggest pain I've received came out of my own backyard.

 

[SOLR]

So far it's been fun to look at your posts going back years, it seems.


Okay. Much like how Canada retains business relations with Saudi Arabia, China, Israel, the US, etc. I'm just trying to learn about and to do business wherever and however I can. In this context, I'm not interested in geopolitics. I've invested in the Chinese market and sold for a profit -- except Daqo, which has been a loss but I'm holding -- and will seek to discuss opportunities here wherever possible.

The most I've lost has been on a Montreal-based company which I will not name. It's been a near catastrophic loss and this company seems incapable of raising investor confidence, having been delisted from NASDAQ due to share price underperformance. So I'm not interested in reading yet another screed about the evils of oriental China when the biggest pain I've received came out of my own backyard.

Investors do get burn all around the world. And Canada is living its own demographic issues. That was predictable by geopolitics 20 years ago.

Geopolitics matter as soon as you try to invest for the long run. Things like a population going down 10% in 10 years are very relevant to the momentum of national economies.

China's stock market lost 50% of its value since 2015 and things are accelerating. Most of the $ lost have been Chinese investors since the western investors are just divesting. I'm not saying you can't make $ there, you def can, I was an early Alibaba investor. But the times have gone where you can plan for growth in China, you can only plan for more systemic deflation. This isn't a good prospect unless you find a gem of a company.

Investors are moving to India where things will be on the up and up for the next 30 years population wise.

 

[ReHabs]

Investors are moving to India where things will be on the up and up for the next 30 years population wise.

Been hearing this for 30+ years too. Would rather invest my money in a ditch than in the India market.

 

[SOLR]

Been hearing this for 30+ years too. Would rather invest my money in a ditch than in the India market.

China always had to unwind before it happened. Like early China, early markets you need to dig deep to know what's up there. Investing in China in 2000.

Same with Argentina.

 

[ReHabs]

Same with Argentina.

I looked actually into it but even the Argies I know who are in the industrial class there don't have any ideas other than buying land and ranches for meat supplied by cheap labour. Same as it ever was. I thought maybe leather goods (as a byproduct of beef production) but there doesn't seem to be a competitive edge with Argentinian leather vs Italian or others. Milei hasn't achieved anything resembling a "business friendly" regime either. If you have any ideas, I'm all ears.

 

[SOLR]

I looked actually into it but even the Argies I know who are in the industrial class there don't have any ideas other than buying land and ranches for meat supplied by cheap labour. Same as it ever was. I thought maybe leather goods (as a byproduct of beef production) but there doesn't seem to be a competitive edge with Argentinian leather vs Italian or others. Milei hasn't achieved anything resembling a "business friendly" regime either. If you have any ideas, I'm all ears.

Milei needs to survive 2 years, he's still in the test period.
He can't unwind 30 years in 1 year.
I think if he gets to the other side FDI will begin.
Argentinian lithium, I'm waiting.

 

[HuGort]

Good start but Market dropping near end of day. Wasn't expecting it

 

[sampollock]

get the interest rate down asap B of C