OT: Lets talk about stocks (Part 3)

[SOLR]

There certainly are sectors that could/should crash at some point in the near future. Hopefully they don't bring down the whole market with them or at least aren't caused by a systemic underlying issue like the 2008 crisis. I'm still 30 years (at least) from my retirement so I'll be fine either way but deep recessions affect society way more than just people's portfolio. Sadly stupid Wall Street Crooks can't help themselves but to push their money grabbing schemes too far once in a while though. Hopefully this isn't one of those times.

We're due for a demographic cycle reset, those are painful. That's 1929.
I'm not saying we're going to have a depression. I am saying there's a bunch of stuff left in the old world of post WW2 expansion, and these have to recede (housing is at the top of the list).

While production, particularly commodity production assets should re-balance (they've been suppressed in value).

The phantom issue is the beginning of the collapse of the chinese population and the lack of demand from there that is starting to throw a wrench in all models. Will take 10 years to play out, then in 5-10 years Italy, Spain and Germany in Europe. Japan and S. Korea in Asia.

Japan's market crashing is just an appetizer to what is coming.
It's like having no kids has consequences....

 

[MXD]

... Yeeaahhhh I was joking earlier about my downpayment but I definitely dodged a bullet.

Let's just say my downpayment would've been non-insignificantly smaller.

 

[Hope Of Glory]

We're due for a demographic cycle reset, those are painful. That's 1929.
I'm not saying we're going to have a depression. I am saying there's a bunch of stuff left in the old world of post WW2 expansion, and these have to recede (housing is at the top of the list).

While production, particularly commodity production assets should re-balance (they've been suppressed in value).

The phantom issue is the beginning of the collapse of the chinese population and the lack of demand from there that is starting to throw a wrench in all models. Will take 10 years to play out, then in 5-10 years Italy, Spain and Germany in Europe. Japan and S. Korea in Asia.

Japan's market crashing is just an appetizer to what is coming.
It's like having no kids has consequences....

I agree that demographics are definitely a cause for concern. Really hard to predict how the market will adapt since population aging this fast, this widespread hasn't happened in modern times. China has a big population problem, but it's far from its only problem. It will be a very interesting case study, one that will have worldwide consequences given its importance to global market.

 

[HuGort]

Hooooly f***ing shit I think I started the crash when I liquidated a lot my stocks/funds for my downpayment of my house 2 weeks ago.

(That was some terrific timing)

It's been on quite run. S&P 5,600 couple weeks back. Time for a setback

 

[LaP]

I agree that demographics are definitely a cause for concern. Really hard to predict how the market will adapt since population aging this fast, this widespread hasn't happened in modern times. China has a big population problem, but it's far from its only problem. It will be a very interesting case study, one that will have worldwide consequences given its importance to global market.

I think TSMC controlling the vast majority of chip manufacturing and Intel crapping the bed after a huge invetment by the US government into them is a bigger issue atm. We are one war (proxy or real) against China away from a massive problem. BTW i love how when we invest into Bombardier to
"compete" against Boeing this is wrong but then the US gov turns around and gives billions to intel to compete against TSMC while Intel management is in shamble. Do as i say and not as i do ...

Lack of regulation on AI and Crypto is a massive issue too. There's a chip in everything these days and not having regulations in place making sure the price of chips remains low is complete total madness. If chips becomes too expensive it will require most markets to go back in time at least around 15 to 20 years.

People should be afraid of AI. Automation killed many jobs but created new ones in engineering and IT. AI will kill those new jobs and wont create new ones. AI will require just a handful of programmers and the bar of entry into those jobs will be very very high most people wont be able to apply. It's already impressive what AI can do. I can ask Copilot or ChatGPT to make me a front end in Next.JS for a web site and the end result barely needs any human interaction. AI not only will create a chip shortage as every speculators (a problem in itself these days) in the world will go crazy but it will kill jobs massively and unlike automation they likely wont be replaced.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

Maybe, but I swear I've hearing this forever.

I started reading about the stock market in 2016 when I was a poor college students and the prevailing sentiment was that "Dow can't get to 20 000, its about to crash". Heard the same thing when we hit rock bottom during the 2020 covid sell off, "it for sure will drop another 50% bro". Then again 2 years ago before we got this great rally, "market's overvalued, we're heading for a recession, sell everything!!". Doomerism is almost always the prevailing sentiment.

This might be the time it actually drops a lot. In my 30+ years timeframe, it will for sure happen a few times. But doomers, just like economists, predicted about 100 out of the last 3 crashes so I'll just keep on DCA'ing.

Sucks that the stupid canadian market is closed today though

lolz, it's so easy to be a doomer, because it's such a simple idea ("it's all gonna come crashing down!!! ") and it appeals to our basest of instincts, fear.

but the reality is, if you can suffer through the dips that occur once in a while, you'll be fine in the long run:

 

[SOLR]

I think TSMC controlling the vast majority of chip manufacturing and Intel crapping the bed after a huge invetment by the US government into them is a bigger issue atm. We are one war (proxy or real) against China away from a massive problem. BTW i love how when we invest into Bombardier to
"compete" against Boeing this is wrong but then the US gov turns around and gives billions to intel to compete against TSMC while Intel management is in shamble. Do as i say and not as i do ...

Lack of regulation on AI and Crypto is a massive issue too. There's a chip in everything these days and not having regulations in place making sure the price of chips remains low is complete total madness. If chips becomes too expensive it will require most markets to go back in time at least around 15 to 20 years.

People should be afraid of AI. Automation killed many jobs but created new ones in engineering and IT. AI will kill those new jobs and wont create new ones. AI will require just a handful of programmers and the bar of entry into those jobs will be very very high most people wont be able to apply. It's already impressive what AI can do. I can ask Copilot or ChatGPT to make me a front end in Next.JS for a web site and the end result barely needs any human interaction. AI not only will create a chip shortage as every speculators (a problem in itself these days) in the world will go crazy but it will kill jobs massively and unlike automation they likely wont be replaced.

Intel hasn't crapped the bed much. US companies need to switch a lot of 25-35nm (in China) production in 14-10nm, this is what is hurting Intel. Long design cycles.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

for fun, here's a doomer prediction by our very own @SOLR about the "financial implosion" of China that I had bookmarked a while back

The incoming financial implosion of China, leading to contagion.

Timeline for this?

3-16 months - it's a large spread because the Chinese are good are creating pixie dust.

was supposed to happen by Dec 2023, at the tail end of that ridiculously large range. I guess it didn't happen?

 

[montreal]

I picked up some INTC stock on Friday, just 100 shares at around 20-21 dollars.

Will likely add to PLTR though I have been waiting to see it drop more as I don't like increasing my cost basis.

Not worried about the US yet, at some point they will break as there is no way in the world you can double the price of certain foods and have large increases in rents over a longer period, that's just not sustainable.

 

[LaP]

Intel hasn't crapped the bed much. US companies need to switch a lot of 25-35nm (in China) production in 14-10nm, this is what is hurting Intel. Long design cycles.

Intel is curently stuck in a major issue with their last two CPU gen having degradatrion problems. They had to extend their warranty to avoid a lawsuit. That doesn't give lot of confidence about their ability to compete with TSMC fab.

 

[ReHabs]

I picked up some INTC stock on Friday, just 100 shares at around 20-21 dollars.

What's your reasoning?

Will likely add to PLTR though I have been waiting to see it drop more as I don't like increasing my cost basis.

If the AI bubble bursts, wouldn't Palantir also get hurt?

for fun, here's a doomer prediction by our very own @SOLR about the "financial implosion" of China that I had bookmarked a while back







was supposed to happen by Dec 2023, at the tail end of that ridiculously large range. I guess it didn't happen?

It's been about 30 years that China-hawks and people who don't even realise they're China-hawks predicting China's imminent collapse. Ain't gonna happen. They're too sound overall and are too strong, too big, too prominent on the global markets, and (most importantly) have a too strong grip of their domestic economy.

 

[SOLR]

Intel is curently stuck in a major issue with their last two CPU gen having degradatrion problems. They had to extend their warranty to avoid a lawsuit. That doesn't give lot of confidence about their ability to compete with TSMC fab.

I have a 14900k my dude.

But this is all 2 years ago, not now.
They will be the first with the new machine and TSMC had 2 recalls like Intel. Chip production is getting much harder as we are getting close to harder to master physical limits.

Next gen of Intel (15900k etc.) are made by TSMC lol)

The US gov investments in fab isn't complete either.
And theres more of that is coming in Ohio, US government will buy more Intel fabs in the next 3 years you can bet a round dollar on it.

Intel is like Lockheed the US gov will never let them fail, no chance of that.

 

[LaP]

It's been about 30 years that China-hawks and people who don't even realise they're China-hawks predicting China's imminent collapse. Ain't gonna happen. They're too sound overall and are too strong, too big, too prominent on the global markets, and (most importantly) have a too strong grip of their domestic economy.

There's at least one new video a week on youtube about someone predicting the imminent collapse of China. I've been waiting for at least 10 years now.

I have a 14900k my dude.

Anecdote. Publicly traded companies do not extend their warranty for fun.

 

[SOLR]

There's at least one new video a week on youtube about someone predicting the imminent collapse of China. I've been waiting for at least 10 years now.


Anecdote. Publicly traded companies do not extend their warranty for fun.

China has already de-facto collapsed. Systems like this don't collapse in a boom, they collapse progressively.

Just look at the US manufacturing investment index. it's a f***ing vertical line up. Tells the whole story.

And Canada is next as soon the conservatives are coming in.
We'll replace China's / Russia processing capabilities for the whole west.
That's WHY they are bringing this wave of immigrants.

 

[SOLR]

Anecdote. Publicly traded companies do not extend their warranty for fun.

And what is anecdote here? I was just pointing out I know they have a problem with their 13, 14th gen. Nvidia has an issue with Blackwell, AMD is having issues as well. I have many clients in this sector.

The reason you see investments mainly in chips is that Tesla is making most investment in others forms of assembly and in order to go much deeper on this the US needs Canada to wake the f up with commodity processing so they can build the chemical plants / electrical plants required (what is truly missing here). Textile is moving to Africa, that's fine. And then we'll be alone with advanced in-house robotics soon (+mass production of that). Fine skills assembly (smartphones etc.) is already in Vietnam and moving into India.

Germans need to build a lot of the supply chain for chips in NA (Mexico) so we don't depends on them.

 

[montreal]

What's your reasoning?

If the AI bubble bursts, wouldn't Palantir also get hurt?

need more dividends for the account I bought it in to off-set the required RMD. Got it at a great price as well and will add if it drops to lower my cost basiss.

Not worried about an AI bubble since it looks like we are in the very early stages of AI. But they are a long term play.

 

[Hacketts]

DELETE!!!!

 

[Leto]

need more dividends for the account I bought it in to off-set the required RMD. Got it at a great price as well and will add if it drops to lower my cost basiss.

In case you missed it from Intel's Q2 earnings, they will be suspending their dividend starting this Q4.​

 

[the valiant effort]

People gotta start having kids again to help perpetuate this unsustainable runaway system!!!

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

 

[QuebecPride]

Nice rebates we got today and yesterday, why are people panicking lol

 

[SOLR]

for fun, here's a doomer prediction by our very own @SOLR about the "financial implosion" of China that I had bookmarked a while back







was supposed to happen by Dec 2023, at the tail end of that ridiculously large range. I guess it didn't happen?

Go to China and see for yourself lol.

I have multiple Chinese clients, they are all trying to flee. And bring their family with them.

Sounds good bud.

High-Net-Worth People Are Leaving China.

Millionaires and billionaires have decided to leave China, voting with their feet on Xi’s economic management and on the economy’s prospects.

www.forbes.com

 

[ReHabs]

Go to China and see for yourself lol.

I have multiple Chinese clients, they are all trying to flee. And bring their family with them.

Sounds good bud.

High-Net-Worth People Are Leaving China.

Millionaires and billionaires have decided to leave China, voting with their feet on Xi’s economic management and on the economy’s prospects.

www.forbes.com

View attachment 899512

It’s a communist country. HNWI fleeing instead of re-contributing to the party/country proves the CPC correct and reveals the CPC’s strength. If they were on shaky ground the wealthy would be chipping away at the state and carving out bits and pieces. In this case it is largely the opposite.

I don’t mean any offense but it’s downright a joke to keep insisting that China is on the verge of collapse. For! 30! Years!

If you wanna see countries on the verge of collapse you can take look a lot closer to home than China.

Just look at the US manufacturing investment index. it's a f***ing vertical line up. Tells the whole story.

100 billion USD spent is nothing. A drop in the bucket. We saw what Intel did with their subsidies and the CHIPS Act (fail and fail and fail again).

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

Go to China and see for yourself lol.

I have multiple Chinese clients, they are all trying to flee. And bring their family with them.

Sounds good bud.

High-Net-Worth People Are Leaving China.

Millionaires and billionaires have decided to leave China, voting with their feet on Xi’s economic management and on the economy’s prospects.

www.forbes.com

View attachment 899512

wealthy people have been trying to flee China since they embraced capitalism. this is nothing new.

but hey, i guess the "financial implosion" will happen any day now right?

 

[SOLR]

It’s a communist country. HNWI fleeing instead of re-contributing to the party/country proves the CPC correct and reveals the CPC’s strength. If they were on shaky ground the wealthy would be chipping away at the state and carving out bits and pieces. In this case it is largely the opposite.

I don’t mean any offense but it’s downright a joke to keep insisting that China is on the verge of collapse. For! 30! Years!

If you wanna see countries on the verge of collapse you can take look a lot closer to home than China.

You have really poor context on this, like abysmal.

I built 2-3 great Chinese business from 2010 to 2020
I spent a lot of time in China. I love the chinese people and their spirit.

In 2020, the CCP one-shoted one of those business. It went from over 30 million USD/y to 0 in 2 months. 200-450 people lost their jobs (seasonality explains the range of job loss).
Since, the local governments are hinging on the brink of collapse.
Everybody is buying gold since the banks are keeping the money (stealing)
The US and the west are rapidly divesting everything they have in China
China has been found lying about everything, their GDP, their population, etc.
All the Taiwan threats.
The various large protests like Lying flat, Let it rot.

" HNWI fleeing instead of re-contributing to the party/country proves the CPC correct and reveals the CPC’s strength."

LOL I can't, if you believe that you are one dumb motherf***er. Strenght is not a guy at the top KILLING everyone else.

It's a 1.3 billion people machine, it doesn't stop in 1 day. That's not what a collapse is. It's not what it looks like.

A collapse is what Japan lived in the 1990, it took 10 years to unwind, and now we are seeing the 2nd phase of that in the 2020s. And because of demographic declines, that are just worse in China, you will see severe declines every 10 years going forward.

This is great depression stuff.
It's just 2024.
With 2024 tech.
With 2024 complex markets.
With western powers that have not invested in Canada yet to turn off China completely (they still depend on China for a few things, nothing they can't replace in 3 years)

Alright enough arguing with Chinese trolls.

I guess another 80% down to go in the next 3-5 years - unless Shanghai manages to leave China.

The collapse has happened, there just no significant consequences (outside of inflation.....) on our lives because you imagine a collapse like in the movies.