Blue Jays Discussion: Let the post-winter-meeting, pre-spring-training baseball withdrawl commence!

[Discoverer]

as of now, the default is likely Sanchez Osuna and Hutch in the BP.

I don't love that, but as long as the team remains flexible on that I'm happy. Getting Storen to pair with Cecil at the backend definitely frees up the kids to potentially start.

My hope is that all 3 of Osuna Sachez and Hutch are stretched out on spring training and given a legit shot to earn a starting rotation spot. I want it to be clear to those pitchers and the rest of us that those 3 are still looked at as potential starters going forward, and aren't being relegated to pen duty already.

Just based on salaries, Dickey Happ Estrada are all locks for spots, which is fine. But they are all on the old side and will likely suffer some injuries. As long as the 3 kids are given a fair shot at the #5 slot against Chavez, and clearly in the mix to move into the rotation if there are injuries to others, I'm happy.

As of now though, while there are some questions about role, it looks pretty clear that 11 of the 12 pitching slots are committed too at this point - Stroman, Dickey, Happ, Estrada, Chavez, Osuna, Sanchez, Hutchison, Storen, Cecil, Loup. And I wouldn't be surprised to see them pick up another serviceable reliever who falls through the FA cracks before spring training starts.

I really want Hutch in the rotation, but I think if he doesn't win the job he's likely to start the season in Buffalo rather than in the pen.

 

[zeke]

I think he could be a helluva reliever, and we're trying to win a world series this year, so I wouldn't mind him in the pen here. It's not a death sentence to his career as an SP, and let's face it for all his potential he may end up in the pen regardless a la Cecil, Britton, Davis, etc.

 

[Vito_81]

I really want Hutch in the rotation, but I think if he doesn't win the job he's likely to start the season in Buffalo rather than in the pen.

I agree. He's starting games, either here or in Buffalo

I'm expecting Hutch to be a big suprise this season. If he bounces back to form. It really gives the Jays a much better rotation.

Stro
Dickey
Estrada
Happ
Hutch

No number 1 in there. But really a solid rotation of 3/4 guys after Stroman.

 

[donkeyy0]

I agree. He's starting games, either here or in Buffalo

I'm expecting Hutch to be a big suprise this season. If he bounces back to form. It really gives the Jays a much better rotation.

Stro
Dickey
Estrada
Happ
Hutch

No number 1 in there. But really a solid rotation of 3/4 guys after Stroman.

Uhhh, there is most definitely a number 1 in that list.

 

[Canada4Gold]

well I think he's missed out on his big payday, he could be this years kendry morales, he might have to take a one year deal and wait till next to get payed. im sorry davis isn't worth 20-25 mil a year let alone the figure your throwing out, he will probably get something between the 14-20 mil. he still has lots of questions surrounding his off and on years.

he might have missed out of the big payday(7x22 or whatever) but he's still gonna get term whenever he signs. He's not going to sign a 2 year deal.

Something like 5x20 is extremely realistic.

 

[Clark4Ever]

Uhhh, there is most definitely a number 1 in that list.

It's too soon to tell. He very well could be our next ace though. Beyond that, we are definitely missing a number two.

 

[dredeye]

he might have missed out of the big payday(7x22 or whatever) but he's still gonna get term whenever he signs. He's not going to sign a 2 year deal.

Something like 5x20 is extremely realistic.

The O's offered him 5 years 150 so he'll have no issue getting paid and with term. I'm sure he could still call the O's and just take the offer.

 

[as Pure as Evil]

Yeah that's insane. you would figure that these owners would learn from other teams debacles ie Josh Hamilton, Pujols . Han ram, panda , Crawford even fielder and bj Upton . that all have or are turning in to complete disasters. it's just boggling

 

[KuleminFan41]

I don't get what's funny.

He's 30yrs old, and has had only two seasons where he was above average. And they weren't even consecutive. Just a season ago he was barely above replacement level.

When Bautista and EE had their breakouts, we were able to sign them for very reasonable deals - and even then many thought we were overpaying at the time.

$25m for Davis sounds beyond ludicrous to me.

He's 29, not 30 get it right. Like I said, he had a good 2012 season where he led in most offensive categories for a playoff bound Baltimore Orioles team. That is a fact, not an opinion. You missed my point completely about Edwin and Bautista. My entire point was at Chris Davs' age you'd be more than happy to give big deals to them both and its entirely based on them playing for the "home team". You're ignoring that he barely played 110 games combined in 2010-2011 , you're ignoring his statistics because he wasn't hitting 50 homers and over 100 RBI's at age 22, well sometimes it doesn't happen that way. What's beyond "ludicrous" is this notion that Davis is some how too old when he started playing well despite his break out season was when he was 26 when comparing him to Bautista and Encarnacion they had theirs at 29, the same age Davis is today. You're ignoring the facts because you just want to whine about everything . Is Davis worth 25 million? I'm not sure but he's worth pretty close to it at the very least. The guy can play in the field and you know is immediately more valuable than a guy who just plays DH and disrupts a line up when you slot him in at 1B

 

[Garlando]

Does anyone else think that Cespedes, Davis and Upton deals will be used as benchmarks for Bautista and EE? Feel like it might be unfair as they are all still 30 and under(especially upton as he's 28) but the comp could be made...
What kind of dollar value and term do you expect Bautista and EE to get? And if you're GM of the Jays, do you commit to them?

 

[Clark4Ever]

I imagine that Jose and Edwin will be looking for 3-4 year deals for 15-20 million per season.

 

[MarMarSab3]

I imagine that Jose and Edwin will be looking for 3-4 year deals for 15-20 million per season.

20-25 is what it'll take I think.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

I imagine that Jose and Edwin will be looking for 3-4 year deals for 15-20 million per season.

You aren't getting those guys for under 20 million a season. Just not happening.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Does anyone else think that Cespedes, Davis and Upton deals will be used as benchmarks for Bautista and EE? Feel like it might be unfair as they are all still 30 and under(especially upton as he's 28) but the comp could be made...
What kind of dollar value and term do you expect Bautista and EE to get? And if you're GM of the Jays, do you commit to them?

The way the negotiations go for both will be tied very much so to the value Davis and Cespedes/Upton receive. Like most good lawyers/agents, they will approach it one of a few ways:

A: Davis/Cespedes break the bank - "my client has been superior for a longer period of time to each of those two players, and deserves slightly more over a slightly shorter period because of that."

B: Davis/Cespedes don't break the bank - "my client is superior to those players and they should not be used as comparables. My client is also ageless, ala Dorian Gray, and should get far more years than is realistic for their vintage."

Either way, the ask will be high in both aav and years. Heart says resign both, let them retire Blue Jays. Quantitative brain says trade both this season and get as much as you can for them. Head says resign the younger of the two, and let the older play out the season and leave in FA taking the draft pick.

 

[Discoverer]

Either way, the ask will be high in both aav and years. Heart says resign both, let them retire Blue Jays. Quantitative brain says trade both this season and get as much as you can for them. Head says resign the younger of the two, and let the older play out the season and leave in FA taking the draft pick.

If I had to guess, I would say one gets re-signed (though I couldn't even begin to guess which) and the other leaves as a free agent.

The only scenario where I think there's a chance both get re-signed is if management knows there's a relatively significant payroll boost coming.

The only scenario where I think either/both get traded is under the highly-unlikely scenario that the Jays struggle and are out of it at the deadline.

 

[zeke]

Does anyone else think that Cespedes, Davis and Upton deals will be used as benchmarks for Bautista and EE? Feel like it might be unfair as they are all still 30 and under(especially upton as he's 28) but the comp could be made...
What kind of dollar value and term do you expect Bautista and EE to get? And if you're GM of the Jays, do you commit to them?

Cruz signed for 4x$15 at age 34, Martinez for 4x$17 at age 36.

EE and Joey are better than them but I'm not sure they can command hugely more than them. 4x$20 would be my ballpark guess.

 

[tml19]

Cruz signed for 4x$15 at age 34, Martinez for 4x$17 at age 36.

EE and Joey are better than them but I'm not sure they can command hugely more than them. 4x$20 would be my ballpark guess.

Jose can make close to 30 without a doubt for 4. EE would make around 25 if I had to guess.

 

[tp71]

Jose can make close to 30 without a doubt for 4. EE would make around 25 if I had to guess.

Based on how the market is spending, I'd be surprised if Jose/EE get that much. But that's just me. Markets change, but the recent trend is spend big on pitching.

 

[tml19]

Based on how the market is spending, I'd be surprised if Jose/EE get that much. But that's just me. Markets change, but the recent trend is spend big on pitching.

Fair enough and it is also possible they start to decline as soon as this season.

 

[Eyedea]

Jose can make close to 30 without a doubt for 4. EE would make around 25 if I had to guess.

I don't think EE or Bautista will establish such precedence this offseason. I think both will settle under 25 if they are pushing for 4 years, but they could likely surpass the 20m mark in AAV.

Both have been top 10 offensive producers in the 21st century through ages 31-35, but there's not a whole lot to go off of in order to establish an appropriate value. They are really unique cases and only guys in recent history that we can sort of use to help determine their contracts (other than Cruz and VMart) are:

Gary Sheffield: 3/39 in 2003 offseason with the Yankees (+13m team option). That was ~5.2x the league average in 2004, and would (with rough math and analysis) be a 20-21m AAV contract in today's game.

Jim Thome: 6/85 in 2003 with the Phillies. He was only 32 when this deal happened, but he was being paid 14.4m over his 35-38 years. Again, this would (with my lazy inflation based on league average salaries) be approximately ~20m AAV today.

Manny Ramirez in 2009 was basically getting paid like a 30m man at age 37. Jason Giambi as well, but they were also for only a season or two. I'm not sure we'll see someone like Bautista actually hit that 30m AAV mark for his 36-39 years.

 

[tp71]

Fair enough and it is also possible they start to decline as soon as this season.

When you're that age, you never know. At this point, I don't expect to see either back after this season though. But I expected that before this past season even happened. But that might also be a good thing. Let someone else overpay for players in decline

 

[TootooTrain]

I assume Jose and EE have different agencies. Would be an interesting wrinkle if they had the same in terms of getting them together.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Relief pitcher Drew Storen, acquired over the weekend by the Toronto Blue Jays, talks to The Jeff Blair Show about whether he had any notion as to his trade destination ahead of time, losing his closing role to Jonathan Papelbon last season, his takeaway from 2015, if he spoke about what his role will be with general manager Ross Atkins or president Mark Shapiro, the increasing number of arms in the bullpen, his impression of the 2015 Jays, and on being a bat boy for the Montreal Expos.

http://pmd.fan590.com/audio_on_demand-4/Drew-Storen-with-Jeff-Blair-jb-20160111-Interview.mp3

 

[trellaine201]

Tough call between EE and JB. JB is in much better shape than EE but older. JB plays a position and could be moved to 1B down the road. And DH should be easy to replace. I say sign JB. I doubt they will sign both.

 

[showtime8]

Tough call between EE and JB. JB is in much better shape than EE but older. JB plays a position and could be moved to 1B down the road. And DH should be easy to replace. I say sign JB. I doubt they will sign both.

Have the Jays mentioned anything about moving Bautista from the outfield to the infield within the next couple years?

I'm not sure that's the natural progression, but it seems like the right thing to happen.

I would trade Encarnacion at this point. Get the arm in return and see what you can do this year.