Blue Jays Discussion: Let the post-winter-meeting, pre-spring-training baseball withdrawl commence!

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Discoverer

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Apr 11, 2012
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In Dalton Pompey's brief major league career, he's been mostly really good, and he was awful for a week. His early-career struggles have been vastly overstated.

I've probably said it way too many times already, but I'll say it again: I would be shocked if Pompey isn't better than Revere in 2016.
 

Kurtz

Registered User
Jul 17, 2005
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Since the Jays seem pretty fixated upon competing, so it'll likely be Dickey + Thole for a pretty good reliever and a good backup catcher with any other pieces in there to balance it out. That backup catcher would solidify the position spots, while the reliever would seriously round off the bull pen. Only problem is whether or not Hutchison/Chavez/Sanchez will be able to pick up the slack in the 4/5 roles they'd take over.

Agreed, that'd be the move imo. If we could add Fister on a 1 year thereafter (using the money freed up from Dickey), I think our pitching is in a pretty safe place with some upside and enough insurance policies.
 

Eyedea

The Legend Continues
Jan 29, 2012
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If Dickey is in play, what would you guys realistically expect back for him?
Reliever? Backup C? Middling prospects?

Dickey + Harris for Melancon + Stewart comes to mind. Stroman/Estrada/Happ/Chavez with Hutch/Sanchez battling for the 5th spot, other one stays down in Buffalo. Could potentially put Osuna down in AAA to start as well by adding another high calibre reliever.

Pirates have Diaz that can come in to be a backup option now (though I assume any team acquiring Dickey would have Thole catch). Watson takes over their closers role, plus they have interesting options in Holdzkom and Medina for relief. Cole/Liriano/Dickey/Niese/Locke in the rotation, Vogelsong as the long man, and Glasnow + Taillon start in AAA.
 
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Discoverer

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Apr 11, 2012
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Agreed, that'd be the move imo. If we could add Fister on a 1 year thereafter (using the money freed up from Dickey), I think our pitching is in a pretty safe place with some upside and enough insurance policies.

I'm not particularly high on Fister specifically, but I don't mind the idea.
 

Swervin81

Leaf fan | YYZ -> SEA
Nov 10, 2011
36,478
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Seattle, WA
Ian Kennedy would be a nice target if we do trade away Dickey. He should only cost ~$4M more than Dickey and he's projected for a 2.2 fWAR season. Adding another high end reliever and quality backup C and while getting a likely greater value starter in FA, basically fortifying the team.

Only sucky part would be losing a 1st, but the draft is a crapshoot and I trust our scouts to find later round gems since we have found our fair share over the last few years.
 

Kurtz

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Jul 17, 2005
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I'm not particularly high on Fister specifically, but I don't mind the idea.

I think the fact that he's rumoured to be looking for a 1-year bounce-back deal is a perfect match for us. Plus he's what, 1 or 2 years (depending if you prefer Fwar or Bwar) away from being a 4+WAR pitcher, and at 31 could easily bounce back to those levels. He might just need to get back to throwing his curve more.
 

Discoverer

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Apr 11, 2012
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Ian Kennedy would be a nice target if we do trade away Dickey. He should only cost ~$4M more than Dickey and he's projected for a 2.2 fWAR season. Adding another high end reliever and quality backup C and while getting a likely greater value starter in FA, basically fortifying the team.

Only sucky part would be losing a 1st, but the draft is a crapshoot and I trust our scouts to find later round gems since we have found our fair share over the last few years.

I think the chances of them giving up a pick to sign Ian Kennedy are very close to zero, as they should be.
 

The Nemesis

Semper Tyrannus
Apr 11, 2005
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#1) Criticizing Revere for his shortcomings, or pointing out where the stats show the holes in his game is not "hate". I'm sick of "why does everyone hate X?" coming up whenever people are critical of a player. Hatred would be irrational. Hatred wouldn't come with evidence. Hatred wouldn't be metered out in well-spoken, properly constructed arguments with cited supporting facts. Hatred would be "OMG Ben Revere doesn't belong on this team because he's awful!" and would respond to challenges with "He's awful. Look at him. I don't need to explain why he sucks so much."

#2) As I have said in prior posts on the matter, Revere's problem is that he is one-dimensional. Or kinda one-half dimensional.

If you look at the 36 regular players who hit .290 or better in 2015, here is where Revere ranks:

OBP: 29th
wRC+: 34th
wOBA: 35th
WAR: 32nd
BB%: 27th
2Bs: 31st
Hard contact %: 34th
GB rate: 4th
Infield Hit %: 5th

Translation: Ben Revere does not get on base, get extra-base hits, generate significant offence in any type of dimension, provide a high level of overall on-field value. What he does do is make contact with the ball, slap it on the ground and reach 1st base because of it. That's basically it. If not for his speed, his average would suffer terribly because he would no longer beat out those bleeders and choppers towards infielders. And for all the talk of the damage his speed does on the basepaths, he never really stole all that much while a Blue Jay anyway.

Also for reference, I recall a lot of people who strongly opposed the idea of Kevin Pillar as a leadoff hitter. And almost everyone, even myself, routinely cracked jokes about Pillar's striking inability/unwillingness to take a walk. Pillar had an OBP that was only 10 points lower than Revere's. I'm not saying that makes Pillar a good leadoff man, but in terms of doing what a leadoff man is expected to do (get on base to provide a runner to be driven in by the next few hitters), the gap between Kevin Pillar and Ben Revere is not nearly as wide as it might intuitively seem.

Finally, let's just look at Revere vs the rest of the Blue Jays. Setting the bar at 100 PAs (just enough to weed out pitchers and cup-of-coffee players from factoring in here, but not enough to remove things like season-long part timers such as Navarro, or in-season acquired regulars like Tulo), Revere's career .328 OBP would've ranked ahead of the following Jays:

Carrera
Goins
Pillar
Navarro
Smoak

Tulo was in there too, but just like I'm using Revere's career OBP to factor out what was more than likely a hot-streak-fuelled .354 OBP in his Jays time, I'm also willing to bet that Tulowitzki's .319 OBP in his Jays career is less "real" than the closer-to-.370 OBP he has shown over the entire rest of his career. For what it's worth, Pillar, Navarro, and Smoak's #s are more fairly in line with their career norms. Carrera's was a bit high, but there's still sample size issues with him. And Goins, it was waaaay high, but the validity of the newer # depends on whether you believe that whatever changes he made to his approach/swing late in the season are something he can keep up, or if it was a hot streak and he's going to slide back toward his old self when next season rolls around.

the tl;dr version is this:

Ben Revere, player profile:

Contact hitter: Good
Getting on base: Pretty Bad
Power/extra-base hitting: Really Bad
Defence: Acceptable
Arm: Awful
Speed: Great, but he doesn't use it as much as you'd expect/hope

This is not hate. This is not trashing Revere. This is objectively looking at what he is. And that is a guy who can hit the ball with the bat and play ok defence because his speed bails out some questionable defensive decision making. But it is also a guy that does shockingly little with that skill of having ball meet bat because most of the time those balls are on the ground or are little bleeder singles. He doesn't need to be a doubles/HR machine. But even though people will say that too much importance is being placed on a walk and espouse a belief that there are people who think walk>hit (which is not true, either in the sense of that comparison or that there are individuals who believe such a thing), a walk pretty much equals a hit if that hit is a weak, dribbly groundball single.
 

Eyedea

The Legend Continues
Jan 29, 2012
27,776
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Toronto, Ontario
Ian Kennedy would be a nice target if we do trade away Dickey. He should only cost ~$4M more than Dickey and he's projected for a 2.2 fWAR season. Adding another high end reliever and quality backup C and while getting a likely greater value starter in FA, basically fortifying the team.

Only sucky part would be losing a 1st, but the draft is a crapshoot and I trust our scouts to find later round gems since we have found our fair share over the last few years.

Ian Kennedy is likely around the 12-13m AAV range and I think he can easily be worth 3/40. Biggest problems with him though is the comp pick (which it seems Atkins is not willing to lose), a potential guaranteed 4th year, and his HR proneness.
 

Discoverer

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Apr 11, 2012
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I think the fact that he's rumoured to be looking for a 1-year bounce-back deal is a perfect match for us. Plus he's what, 1 or 2 years (depending if you prefer Fwar or Bwar) away from being a 4+WAR pitcher, and at 31 could easily bounce back to those levels. He might just need to get back to throwing his curve more.

Yeah, a short, cheap contract (which he'll probably get) wouldn't be the worst thing. I've always liked Fister in the past, but I have a lot of concerns about him after his 2015 season. I'm not all that confident about a bounceback.
 

Canada4Gold

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Dec 22, 2010
43,033
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Also for reference, I recall a lot of people who strongly opposed the idea of Kevin Pillar as a leadoff hitter. And almost everyone, even myself, routinely cracked jokes about Pillar's striking inability/unwillingness to take a walk. Pillar had an OBP that was only 10 points lower than Revere's. I'm not saying that makes Pillar a good leadoff man, but in terms of doing what a leadoff man is expected to do (get on base to provide a runner to be driven in by the next few hitters), the gap between Kevin Pillar and Ben Revere is not nearly as wide as it might intuitively seem.

I recall a lot of casual fans thinking "maybe we should Pillar at leadoff, he's fast right?"

a lot of people hear leadoff and think: speed

power: don't care
walks: don't care
average: preferred but not vital
plate discipline: don't care

Who do I need at the top of the lineup. Put the fastest guy up there, problem solved. Maybe we should sign Usain Bolt he'd be a great leadoff hitter.

The protypical leadoff hitter is fast, gets on base, and doesn't swing at crap. But lets remember that this guy is going to be getting the most at bats for your team, you don't want one of your weaker hitters up there because he's fast and gets a few singles. If you don't really have the perfect guy for the job, fast, a great OBP and can take pitches then you're better off just going good hitters at the top, especially if you're not gonna steal when getting on base like Revere seemed to be instructed not to.

Revere was adequate as a leadoff guy. Someone I'd rather not have up there, but he's not puke worthy, you can put up with it. When playing I'd rather him hitting 9th.

If you don't have someone who gets on base a lot, knows how to take a ball and has a bit of speed then you don't need that prototypical leadoff hitter, having good hitters works just as good or better. If a guy isn't going to steal when he does get on or can't take a walk to get on then the hey lets get a fast guy up there strategy is absolutely awful.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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36,957
In Dalton Pompey's brief major league career, he's been mostly really good, and he was awful for a week. His early-career struggles have been vastly overstated.

I've probably said it way too many times already, but I'll say it again: I would be shocked if Pompey isn't better than Revere in 2016.

it's actually quite easy to see him pull a Pillar this year. heck, he might have done that last year if we played him in the 2nd half.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
even though i'm not a fan of the SP approach this offseason, I still don't see how trading Dickey would be a good thing...unless somehow we're flipping him for a better SP, which seems unlikely.
 

Swervin81

Leaf fan | YYZ -> SEA
Nov 10, 2011
36,478
1,614
Seattle, WA
Dickey + Harris for Melancon + Stewart comes to mind. Stroman/Estrada/Happ/Chavez with Hutch/Sanchez battling for the 5th spot, other one stays down in Buffalo. Could potentially put Osuna down in AAA to start as well by adding another high calibre reliever.

Pirates have Diaz that can come in to be a backup option now (though I assume any team acquiring Dickey would have Thole catch). Watson takes over their closers role, plus they have interesting options in Holdzkom and Medina for relief. Cole/Liriano/Dickey/Niese/Locke in the rotation, Vogelsong as the long man, and Glasnow + Taillon start in AAA.

Melancon? Ehhhh... he's projected to make $10M in arb per MLBTR. That's the one big hurdle for me, since we might not be able to sign another starter afterwards in that case. On the other hand, I'd definitely want my pen to be 4 excellent relievers deep (Melancon, Cecil, Storen, Osuna) since we don't have any big time inning gobblers out there without Dickey, especially if the plan is to stretch out Sanchez again.

I mean, I don't have a huge issue with that, but I'd want him in the minors first to rebuild his mechanics and approach to get more K's and less BB's (especially less K's), because he more than has the stuff to do so, so having another starter as insurance would be nice and Melancon's salary could block off a move for another starter.
 

Eyedea

The Legend Continues
Jan 29, 2012
27,776
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Toronto, Ontario
Melancon? Ehhhh... he's projected to make $10M in arb per MLBTR. That's the one big hurdle for me, since we might not be able to sign another starter afterwards in that case. On the other hand, I'd definitely want my pen to be 4 excellent relievers deep (Melancon, Cecil, Storen, Osuna) since we don't have any big time inning gobblers out there without Dickey, especially if the plan is to stretch out Sanchez again.

I mean, I don't have a huge issue with that, but I'd want him in the minors first to rebuild his mechanics and approach to get more K's and less BB's (especially less K's), because he more than has the stuff to do so, so having another starter as insurance would be nice and Melancon's salary could block off a move for another starter.

The idea of moving Dickey to help improve the team is a difficult one because he provides a lot of stability to the rotation. This is why Melancon is the only thing that came to mind. The Pirates hold their prospects back in AAA, while the Jays shorten the games and now end up with a potentially top 2 pen.

It's unlikely either are being moved now but if an NL scout is for some reason saying to Jeff Blair that they want Dickey, then I'm not sure if there's a much better fit.
 

The Nemesis

Semper Tyrannus
Apr 11, 2005
89,250
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Langley, BC
I recall a lot of casual fans thinking "maybe we should Pillar at leadoff, he's fast right?"

a lot of people hear leadoff and think: speed

power: don't care
walks: don't care
average: preferred but not vital
plate discipline: don't care

Who do I need at the top of the lineup. Put the fastest guy up there, problem solved. Maybe we should sign Usain Bolt he'd be a great leadoff hitter.

The protypical leadoff hitter is fast, gets on base, and doesn't swing at crap. But lets remember that this guy is going to be getting the most at bats for your team, you don't want one of your weaker hitters up there because he's fast and gets a few singles. If you don't really have the perfect guy for the job, fast, a great OBP and can take pitches then you're better off just going good hitters at the top, especially if you're not gonna steal when getting on base like Revere seemed to be instructed not to.

Revere was adequate as a leadoff guy. Someone I'd rather not have up there, but he's not puke worthy, you can put up with it. When playing I'd rather him hitting 9th.

If you don't have someone who gets on base a lot, knows how to take a ball and has a bit of speed then you don't need that prototypical leadoff hitter, having good hitters works just as good or better. If a guy isn't going to steal when he does get on or can't take a walk to get on then the hey lets get a fast guy up there strategy is absolutely awful.

He won't be ready to start the year, but my dark horse leadoff candidate is Devon Travis. He's always been a strong on-base guy and he's fast enough for what the team needs when it's got Donaldson/Bautista/Ecarnacion/Tulowitzki coming up afterward. Just use Pompey or someone else in the meantime.

With a healthy lineup:

Travis
Donaldson
Bautista
Encarnacion
Tulowitzki
Martin
Smoakabello
Pillar
Pompey


OBP at the top, speed at the bottom, thunder in the middle.
 

Discoverer

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
11,197
6,548
He won't be ready to start the year, but my dark horse leadoff candidate is Devon Travis. He's always been a strong on-base guy and he's fast enough for what the team needs when it's got Donaldson/Bautista/Ecarnacion/Tulowitzki coming up afterward. Just use Pompey or someone else in the meantime.

With a healthy lineup:

Travis
Donaldson
Bautista
Encarnacion
Tulowitzki
Martin
Smoakabello
Pillar
Pompey


OBP at the top, speed at the bottom, thunder in the middle.

I don't even think he's a darkhorse... I think he's the most likely candidate when he's healthy.
 
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