Blue Jays Discussion: Let the post-winter-meeting, pre-spring-training baseball withdrawl commence!

[hockeywiz542]

apparently jays going after f.rodney...

 

[tml19]

Cheap reclamation project, who cares unless it works

 

[Eyedea]

3/31 for Span is a good deal by the Giants. Seems like hitters are losing a little bit of AAV thus far in their deals.

 

[trellaine201]

This guy is "trash" sorry to say it. I watched enough of him here on the west coast. All or most of the Mariner games were on. Hes a disaster on the mound. Unless you can sign him as a minor leaguer, maybe invite to spring training.

 

[TootooTrain]

You could set your watch to his blowups when his confidence is low. When he's on, he's lights out. It's a high upside play. Don't mind it as long as it's a reasonable contract.

 

[dredeye]

Rodney would be an interesting sign. Adds some heat to the pen if we get him and he doesn't need to be a closer

 

[dredeye]

Edgar Martinez also got the shaft. I get it. DH, derpa derp, not a "face of the game" and all that. But put aside the fact that he spent his career in Seattle and recognize that for basically his entire career he was one of the very best hitters in baseball.

from 1990 to 2000, and among players who played regularly enough to have 5000 PAs (enough to average about 3 PAs per game played by your team for the entirety of that 11-year run):

BA: .322 (2nd to only Tony Gwynn)
OBP: .430 (3rd to only Frank Thomas and Barrold Bonds)
SLG: .537 (9th, trailing McGwire, Bonds, Griffey, Thomas, Albert Belle, Juan Gonzalez, Larry Walker, and Jeff Bagwell.)
OPS: .966 (5th behind Bonds, McGwire, Thomas, and Bagwell)
BB%: 15.2% (tied for 6th with Bagwell, trailing McGwire, Bonds, Ricky Henderson, Thomas, and Tony Phillips)
K%: 12.8% (27th, but only 3 guys ahead of him showed anywhere near as much power as he did: Bonds, Thomas, and Rafael Palmeiro)
wOBA: .420 (4th behind Bonds, Thomas, McGwire)
wRC+: 154 (5th behind Bonds, McGwire, Thomas, Bagwell)
WAR: 55.6 (5th behind Bonds, Griffey, Bagwell, Thomas. And consider that except for Thomas, the other 3 all get positional defence boosts. Martinez' is all from his bat and the heavy negative positional adjustment that being a DH gets.)

For comparison, using wRC+ (because I like it), there have been only 10 seasons (single seasons) in Toronto Blue Jays history in which a player's offensive output equalled what Edgar Martinez averaged between 1990 and 2000: Joey Bats in 2010, 2011, and 2014, Fred McGriff in 1988, 89, and 90, Carlos Delgado in 2000 and 2003, John Olerud in 1993, and Josh Donaldson last year.

So imagine a guy as offensively effective as Josh Donaldson was last year, only he does it year in and year out for 11 straight years. That is what Edgar Martinez was in his prime. And that still cuts out that he had some damn fine seasons right up until the end in 2004.

Insanity. I love your breakdowns buddy btw

 

[Mitchy]

Yup, Edgar Martinez has been screwed for sure. Ortiz getting in his first year, will be an even bigger slap in the face.

 

[teeder333*]

You need to pull your head out of the sand and stop thinking negatively. This team is never going to spend 200M so stop. It's not going to spend 175M in the foreseeable future. This team has all tools to get back into the playoffs, and that's all you need to do, because it's a complete roll of the dice after that.

Lost - Price (1/3 season), Buehrle. Lesser losses in a backup catcher, a bench player and 2 relievers.

Added - Stroman (full season), Tulo (1/3 season to full season), Revere (1/3 season to full season) Happ, Chavez

They have the potential to be even better than a 93 win team since they have Stroman for a full season who you can look at replacing the 1/3 season of Price (slight downgrade but not huge), and they have Tulo for a full season instead of 1/3. They have Revere for a full season instead of 1/3.

As for pitching, Stroman / Dickey / Estrada / Happ / Chavez-Hutch compared to what they had going into last season is an upgrade.

The only place they are arguably weaker heading into this season is the bullpen, and I don't know what your calendar says, but mine says January 5th. April isn't here yet bud.

I like most of what you are saying, but we have lost a lot of guys from our pen. A lot of them.

I sorta like Chavez, he might do well with our defence. is that injured kid at second coming back btw, Travis?

 

[The Nemesis]

Just because I'm having fun stumping for Martinez:
Players in the last 50 years with a higher wRC+ than Edgar Martinez, in order:

Barry Bonds~
Mike Trout+
Frank Robinson*
Mark McGwire~
Joey Votto+
Albert Pujols+
Dick Allen
Frank Thomas*
Miguel Cabrera+
Manny Ramirez#
Hank Aaron*
Roberto Clemente*
Jeff Bagwell
Mickey Mantle*
Paul Goldschmidt+
Willie Stargell*

That's it.

Legend:
* = Hall of Fame member
+ = Active player
# = Not yet eligible for HOF consideration
~ = Has the spectre of PEDs hanging over them

Let's play with that list a bit. Remove the active players, remove Manny (I figure he gets in easy, but he's not eligible yet, so we'll leave him off), and remove McGwire and Bonds because the juice accusations are going to make their candidacy incomparable (and to my knowledge, Martinez never had any such accusations levelled at him). So the guys ahead of Martinez in terms of overall career offensive prowess relative to his peers:

Frank Robinson - In the HOF
Dick Allen - Considered the best player not in the HOF and one who probably should be there if not for a salty history with media members
Frank Thomas - in the HOF
Hank Aaron - in the HOF
Roberto Clemente in the HOF
Jeff Bagwell - should be in the HOF, and probably will be next year
Mickey Mantle -in the HOF
Willie Stargell - in the HOF

yep.

And if you look at the guys who are in his rear-view mirror, you get the likes of Mike Schmidt, Willie Mays, Willie McCovey, Mike Piazza, Reggie Jackson, Harmon Killebrew, Al Kaline, and Joe Morgan

oh, and David Ortiz.

Now, I'm not saying that David Ortiz isn't HOF material. He probably is. And as much as I love some strident sports writing, I'm not going to do something ballsy like say that David Ortiz can't carry Edgar Martinez' jock strap. But at the very least Ortiz should probably be getting Martinez' laundry (including the jock strap) and bringing him coffee and donuts in the morning.

and I know the other usual argument. The one that plays in favor of Ortiz and against Martinez: Playoffs/World Series wins.

That's a team accomplishment. It's not Edgar Martinez' fault his teams couldn't make it all the way. Nobody held it against Griffey or Piazza this year. Or against the myriad of HOFers who made it previously without a ring on their finger. Guys like Craig Biggio, Frank Thomas, Ralph Kiner, Gaylord Perry, Fergie Jenkins, Juan Marichal, George Sisler, Harmon Killebrew, Willie McCovey, Rod Carew, Yaz, Tony Gwynn, Ernie Banks, Ty Cobb (I never knew this one. That's surprising), or Ted Williams.

Edgar Martinez is one of the finest hitters the sport has ever known. For that matter, so is Jeff Bagwell. They both belong in the HOF.

Speaking briefly of Bagwell, my favorite Bagwell stat line: Toss out his brief 39-game dalliance in 2005, he never played less than 110 games in a season over the rest of his career. He debuted in 1991 at the age of 22, 3 years removed from being drafted. From then until 2004 he played 110+ games every single year. And in 10 of those years he was out there at least 156 times a year. But the favorite part? Again excepting that 2005 part-year, Jeff Bagwell never posted a WAR less than 3.5. In fact, from 1991 through 2002, he was never less than 4.3. And his mid-career 6-year run from 1994 to 1999 he was in baseball god mode, going 7.8, 4.5, 7.7, 8.0, 6.7, 7.8

Mortal eyes can barely conceive of a Jeff Bagwell who was merely average. His career arc was less of an arc and mostly a long plateau of awesome with a brief spike into the stratosphere.

 

[Mach85]

Rodney would be an interesting sign. Adds some heat to the pen if we get him and he doesn't need to be a closer

That's exactly it - confidence seems to be a big factor for Rodney (and he's getting to that age where he maybe needs to be used more judiciously anyway), so having him in a MR role can still be quite effective if he picks up anywhere near where he left off with the Cubbies last year.

 

[Longshot]

Edgar Martinez is one of the finest hitters the sport has ever known. For that matter, so is Jeff Bagwell. They both belong in the HOF.

I agree. Martinez not being in is ridiculous. I can't stand the notion some writers have that a great player should be "punished" because he was a DH. It's not Martinez's fault the DH rule was in affect during his career. And if the rule didn't exist, he would have been somebody's first baseman.

 

[Discoverer]

Here's a fun comparison for Jays fans:

Over the last four years, Edwin Encarnacion has been among the most dominant hitters in all of baseball with a 149 wRC+. That is the exact same as Jeff Bagwell's career wRC+, and just two points ahead of Edgar Martinez.

So, even when factoring in early career struggles and late career decline, Edgar Martinez was basically the equivalent to peak Edwin over his 18 year career, while Bagwell was the same player for 15 years, except he was a Gold Glove-calibre defender at 1B instead of a DH.

And if you want to look at just peak... yikes. Edwin has been remarkably consistent the last four years, ranging from a 146 to 151 wRC+. Bagwell had a five-year stretch where he bottomed out at 153 (and that stretch doesn't include his absolutely ludicrous 205 in 1994). Martinez was even more impressive, with a seven-year streak where he didn't fall below 154.

 

[BayStreetBully]

I don't think Edgar Martinez can go from 43% to 75% of voting in just 3 years remaining. I can't think of anyone who's ever made that jump so fast. If he had 15 years of eligibility, sure. Not with 10.

What are your thoughts on Halladay? When does he get in? By 2019, any number of these names could still be on the ballot: Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Mussina, Edgar, Pudge, Guerrero, Thome, Rivera, Halladay and Helton (I think Hoffman and Chipper Jones are already in before 2019, and Ramirez will be a non-factor). Rivera will get in in 2019, and Edgar will probably be dropped off the ballot. 2020 has only Jeter as a new eligible. 2021 has no one new. In 2022, Bonds, Clemens and Schilling are all in their final year of eligibility, if they haven't been elected yet.

 

[Discoverer]

I don't think Edgar Martinez can go from 43% to 75% of voting in just 3 years remaining. I can't think of anyone who's ever made that jump so fast. If he had 15 years of eligibility, sure. Not with 10.

What are your thoughts on Halladay? When does he get in? By 2019, any number of these names could still be on the ballot: Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Mussina, Edgar, Pudge, Guerrero, Thome, Rivera, Halladay and Helton (I think Hoffman and Chipper Jones are already in before 2019, and Ramirez will be a non-factor). Rivera will get in in 2019, and Edgar will probably be dropped off the ballot. 2020 has only Jeter as a new eligible. 2021 has no one new. In 2022, Bonds, Clemens and Schilling are all in their final year of eligibility, if they haven't been elected yet.

I think Halladay gets in first ballot (as well as Pudge, Thome and Rivera).

 

[Eyedea]

A lot of players sucked up some random votes because other than Griffey, there wasn't a lock this year. I think Raines will be a lock next year being in his final year of eligibility. I also think Pudge deserves to be a 1st ballot HOFer. Again, like this year, some guys will be hoping for the boost in (like Bagwell, Hoffman, Schilling, Martinez, and Mussina) because they'll definitely be missing out in 2018/2019.

 

[Discoverer]

A lot of players sucked up some random votes because other than Griffey, there wasn't a lock this year. I think Raines will be a lock next year being in his final year of eligibility. I also think Pudge deserves to be a 1st ballot HOFer. Again, like this year, some guys will be hoping for the boost in (like Bagwell, Hoffman, Schilling, Martinez, and Mussina) because they'll definitely be missing out in 2018/2019.

There were other guys who should have been locks, though.

 

[Eyedea]

There were other guys who should have been locks, though.

Well Bonds and Clemens should have been locks in their first years, but that's beside the point. They (and other known and confirmed steroid users) won't be considered locks until the BBWAA changes their stance on PEDs. Piazza had those rumours swirl around him though, so he could be an example of change.

 

[Drew311]

You could set your watch to his blowups when his confidence is low. When he's on, he's lights out. It's a high upside play. Don't mind it as long as it's a reasonable contract.

I don't mind it as long as they put a clause in the contract that he's not allowed to do that idiotic arrow and point thing he does after he gets a save.

 

[Cloned]

WRT Martinez, everyone knew this would be an issue the moment he announced his retirement.

You could predict the controversy from a mile away.

 

[TootooTrain]

I don't mind it as long as they put a clause in the contract that he's not allowed to do that idiotic arrow and point thing he does after he gets a save.

This. So much this. I can handle the hat. Not both.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I don't mind it as long as they put a clause in the contract that he's not allowed to do that idiotic arrow and point thing he does after he gets a save.

I wonder how Canadians would feel about him bringing back the lucky platano from the WBC.

 

[TootooTrain]

I wonder how Canadians would feel about him bringing back the lucky platano from the WBC.

I'd almost prefer it. Just have it sticking out of the back pocket.

Random note, I noticed snet is filming one of those mini-docs on Osuna this offseason. What ever happened to the Loup one? Wonder if they just tossed it in the bin with all the struggles he had last year.

 

[Muston Atthews]

AA was considering a Stroman + deal for Bud Norris

 

[Discoverer]

AA was considering a Stroman + deal for Bud Norris

I'm pretty sure he never actually considered that one.