Player Discussion Leon Draisaitl's next contract

[VainGretzky]

Wasn't Crosby coming off back to back seasons with concussion like symptoms when he signed that deal?

yes but was pacing 120 points on his return 2nd half of the season followed by a strong playoff

 

[Fourier]

On some level I could see the PA being keen on keeping a merit based looking list of comparables. That said no one is taking enough of a pay cut I feel to make this a serious concern.

The bolded is certainly the case. We already have many examples of players at all levels taking less to play in a situation that they desire. But I doubt we have ever seen players go so far as to get the PA involved.

 

[fuswald]

I think because some of the years will be old guy territory Draisaitl will get 11-12M for a long contract 8 years. This or if he wants much more it will be a sign and trade to get 8 years.

I also think one of the big 4 has to go or we cannot win more than the one cup next year. Near half our cap on 4 players is too much to get excellent support players.

 

[Mr Positive]

I think because some of the years will be old guy territory Draisaitl will get 11-12M for a long contract 8 years. This or if he wants much more it will be a sign and trade to get 8 years.

I also think one of the big 4 has to go or we cannot win more than the one cup next year. Near half our cap on 4 players is too much to get excellent support players.

Zero chance we trade Draisaitl. Also even if the math sucks we will pay up for Draisaitl and Bouchard. If we move Draisaitl you might as well say goodbye to McDavid too

 

[TB12]

Even if the PA did get mad at McDavid signing a team friendly deal (they won't and he will be the highest paid player in the league regardless), WHO f***ING CARES???

Like legitimately, what is their recourse in this situation? Nothing. Literally a gigantic nothingburger that only our fans worry about for some reason.

 

[Mr Positive]

Even if the PA did get mad at McDavid signing a team friendly deal (they won't and he will be the highest paid player in the league regardless), WHO f***ING CARES???

Like legitimately, what is their recourse in this situation? Nothing. Literally a gigantic nothingburger that only our fans worry about for some reason.

The PA isn't a factor. McDavid will get what he wants. Last time he even signed for less than we offered and the PA did nothing

 

[JarvisFunk]

The PA isn't a factor. McDavid will get what he wants. Last time he even signed for less than we offered and the PA did nothing

I'm still struggling to understand how one guy taking up a higher percentage of spendable cap, lowering the available money pool for the rest of the members is beneficial to the PA

 

[Mr Positive]

I'm still struggling to understand how one guy taking up a higher percentage of spendable cap, lowering the available money pool for the rest of the members is beneficial to the PA

I thought this too. I'd even think it's the opposite. The less players take, the more that everyone gets back in escrow

 

[Duke74]

I think because some of the years will be old guy territory Draisaitl will get 11-12M for a long contract 8 years. This or if he wants much more it will be a sign and trade to get 8 years.

I also think one of the big 4 has to go or we cannot win more than the one cup next year. Near half our cap on 4 players is too much to get excellent support players.

I think 11.5-12 is fair for the player and the organization. His best comparable, Pastrnak, recently signed for 11.25 or something similar. Mac makes 12.6, but he's a much better player.

 

[WaitingForUser]

I think 11.5-12 is fair for the player and the organization. His best comparable, Pastrnak, recently signed for 11.25 or something similar. Mac makes 12.6, but he's a much better player.

His comparison was Pasternak last time he signed. The guy puts up 100 plus points consistently and has one of the highest PPG in the postseason. Not for just his generation but all time. He will get 13-14 as he deserves to.

That stupid article is floating around FB now

 

[oobga]

I thought this too. I'd even think it's the opposite. The less players take, the more that everyone gets back in escrow

IMO, it's more ideal to max out all the cap space used. Because then you can complain about how owners are giving out contracts that pay way below what the players really take home. Strengthens arguments that players need to cut into more of the revenue pool to reduce the escrow.

 

[NapoLeonDrainamite]

Yeah, newbie with two posts, etc., but I have it on good authority the number will start with a 12. You can delete my account if I'm wrong (no pls don't).

 

[rpm197509]

Yeah, newbie with two posts, etc., but I have it on good authority the number will start with a 12. You can delete my account if I'm wrong (no pls don't).

If the number started with a 12 the deal would already be signed.

 

[McFlyingV]

If the number started with a 12 the deal would already be signed.

Think the team is giving him a few weeks to decompress after a heartbreaking loss, go on vacation, go to McDavid's wedding and have some time to talk to him about their plans. I don't think the contract was ever going to be signed this quick into the offseason no matter the number. They just finished playing hockey 12 days ago.

 

[North Cole]

I'm still struggling to understand how one guy taking up a higher percentage of spendable cap, lowering the available money pool for the rest of the members is beneficial to the PA

Because it moves everyone else up, and then justifies the use of higher cap escalators. Mcdavid takes 15, so other players take 14, so other guys take 12, and so on until depth guys are making 2. Then the NHLPA uses the full escalator.

Everyone is going to get rekt by escrow anyways because that's a function of the projected HRR being set at the cap midpoint. If the CBA said, projected HRR was the cap ceiling, then there would be very little escrow, the issue is that's what, a 12M roll back per team? The current players are the most important represented class of the NHLPA, obviously they aren't going to allow that.

Instead the system is basically designed for the current class of players to try and extract as much as they can now, use the escalators, which push the ceiling further and result in more escrow, increase the cap to get more money to pay more escrow. At the end of the day, having a gross of 12m and paying 1m in escrow is less money than having a gross of 15m and paying 2m in escrow. Each player maximizing their money is good for all players because they all maximize their money. The guys that get f***ed over are the ones on elc and RFA, but theyre also a less important member of the union than the vets and UFAs. Such as it is with all unions, tenure matters.

 

[LTIR]

I think Drai camp wants 14M per, a touch more than the bar set by Matthews.

Oilers are likely hoping for something around 12.5M.

 

[TheNumber4]

12.5M 12.5M 12.5M 12.5M

Let’s keep saying it until it manifests into reality.

 

[rpm197509]

12.5M 12.5M 12.5M 12.5M

Let’s keep saying it until it manifests into reality.

12.5

 

[Fourier]

IMO, it's more ideal to max out all the cap space used. Because then you can complain about how owners are giving out contracts that pay way below what the players really take home. Strengthens arguments that players need to cut into more of the revenue pool to reduce the escrow.

This year the players may get not only all of their escrow back but perhaps even more, and that is after paying off the covid deficit.

We may see a restructuring of the cap range in the next CBA that could well set the ceiling at something like 5-6% over the "midpoint". They could probably do that without much of a issue since the ceiling this year may well be a fair bit under the actual players share of revenue next year.

 

[ohheyhemsky]

12.5

12.49

 

[ThePhoenixx]

12.5

 

[Roderek]

Explain to me how one player's salary being say $1-2M lower than it may otherwise have been if said player had pressed harder impacts CBA negotiations, especially within a system where revenues are shared via a fixed pot.

Players take less all the time for various reasons. Connor Brown just left money on the table to stay in Edmonton. Does this somehow impact the CBA or is it just a few marquee names? Top players take less to stay or go to no/low tax states. AP for example left money on the table as the top UFA to go to Vegas. Where was the outrage from the PA? In fact, where is the evidence that the PA has ever said anything about an individual players salary negotiation under the cap.

Where is the evidence that one player's salary explicitly prevents all others from negotiating freely to get what they feel they deserve should they choose to do so. Did the fact that MacKinnon had a cap hit of $6.3M in September of 2019 prevent Rantanen from obtaining a fair market deal? Did Matthews have to take less than $12.5M because McDavid was at that number? Do you think that if McDavid took $13.5M in his next deal that Matthews would surrender is leverage over the Leafs?

Can it happen that a star's lower salary could impact a few others negotiations. Yes. Indeed, the most obvious instance that one can point to where a star's salary impacted others would have been Holland's unwritten rule that no one on the Wings made more than Lidstrom. This effective hard cap did indeed play a role in the contract talks of several players such as Datsyuk and Zetterberg. But both players stayed with Detroit and worked out deals under the rules at the time that worked for them. Both could have had more if they had left as UFAs. The Lidstrom rule did not prevent players on other teams negotiating their deals. On the flip side the Lidstrom rule allowed the wings to pay more to other players keeping their depth happy. But even with this situation where management made the artificial cap on salaries public knowledge, we heard no outcry from the PA. Moreover one can easily argue that stars taking their "fair share" impacts far more negotiations in a negative. If Leon, McDavid and Bouchard took every penny that they were able to squeeze out of the Oilers what would that do to the negotiations with future Oiler players?? Less money on the table means the Oilers depth gets squeezed. Furthermore, and this is the key point, there is an implicit impact on every player in the PA when one player gets more because every additional dollar one player gets comes out of the pocket of every other player in the league including those with existing contracts and those negotiating future deals.

I was away for a few days sorry for the late response. I don't have any proof, but I have been negotiating contracts for almost two decades now. Anything you can use to strengthen your position is better. It is very reasonable to assume that Leons Agent is going to start by saying in the last 3 Seasons Leon has
148 goals 196 assists and 341 total points over 240 gps
Auston Matthews has
169 goals 129 Assists and 298 points over 228 games

Austins cap hit is 13.25 so let's start at 15,5 Leon has more points and has been more durable. the cap has gone up since Matthews signed that deal and is expected to keep rising. Even if Leon was willing to take an extremely team friendly deal, his agent wouldn't likely start at the number he is willing to accept.

As for how it helps the PA in CBA negotiating, everything in a negotiating the CBA is give and take, and you are correct the owners might not be willing to split more of the pot with the players, but the more teams that are up against the cap and in cap hell that are trying to contend, will add pressure. It is more likely that they could use this to negotiate a higher cap floor then ceiling. They could use this as leverage for anything that the players actually want. If you can't give us more money give us "X". Maybe the league wants to stop using Ebugs so they want teams to carry a 3rd goalie, the PA can say fine but your 3rd goalie at 1 mil/season doesn't count against the cap.

Again, I am not privy to actual information but seems pretty common sense. Players are always going to want more money/Jobs Security, so the PA and the agents are always going to push for the maximum amount of money possible.

 

[Fourier]

I was away for a few days sorry for the late response. I don't have any proof, but I have been negotiating contracts for almost two decades now. Anything you can use to strengthen your position is better. It is very reasonable to assume that Leons Agent is going to start by saying in the last 3 Seasons Leon has
148 goals 196 assists and 341 total points over 240 gps
Auston Matthews has
169 goals 129 Assists and 298 points over 228 games

Austins cap hit is 13.25 so let's start at 15,5 Leon has more points and has been more durable. the cap has gone up since Matthews signed that deal and is expected to keep rising. Even if Leon was willing to take an extremely team friendly deal, his agent wouldn't likely start at the number he is willing to accept.

As for how it helps the PA in CBA negotiating, everything in a negotiating the CBA is give and take, and you are correct the owners might not be willing to split more of the pot with the players, but the more teams that are up against the cap and in cap hell that are trying to contend, will add pressure. It is more likely that they could use this to negotiate a higher cap floor then ceiling. They could use this as leverage for anything that the players actually want. If you can't give us more money give us "X". Maybe the league wants to stop using Ebugs so they want teams to carry a 3rd goalie, the PA can say fine but your 3rd goalie at 1 mil/season doesn't count against the cap.

Again, I am not privy to actual information but seems pretty common sense. Players are always going to want more money/Jobs Security, so the PA and the agents are always going to push for the maximum amount of money possible.

I'd say that if the NHLPA pushed for a higher percentage of the pie the chances of a lockout would be at least 99.9999999% and that may be an underestimate. The NHLPA is surely aware of this from past negotiations. So under the premise that this is off the table I would be willing to bet that the single biggest issue that the players have is escrow. Specifically, finding a way to keep it as low as possible.

Given the current revenues this year it seems likely that the players will get back all of their escrow and even some additional monies. Unless something completely unexpected happens it is likely that the amount of escrow players will get hit with will stay small or even possibly negative from now until the new CBA negotiations. If I had to guess what the PA will want is to go to a non- symmetric cap range where the ceiling is closer to the "midpoint" than the floor is. Perhaps 5-6% above the projected "midpoint" with a floor at the current 15% below. This will effectively codify the current maximum of 6% escrow negotiated in response to covid. If revenues continue to grow at an expected rate this could be actually be achieved while still allowing the cap to grow at a brisk pace over the next few years because right now the formulaic midpoint is probably slightly above this years ceiling due to far more rapid growth in revenues than the previous CBA anticipated. We also have Utah replacing Arizona as well, which by itself could add $1M+ to the cap so its hard to see even a 5% cap increase next year triggering much is any escrow.

Now what does this have to do with the original issue? Every extra nominal dollar any player gets actually increases the need for escrow which explicitly runs counter to the NHLPA's prime desire. The common narrative is that higher nominal salaries for stars floats everyone's boat. If this was teh case, again what this would mean is higher escrow but no more money in the aggregate. A small number of R/UFA's would benefit but the majority would actually lose money because every extra dollar also takes real money out of the pockets of of each PA member. And as it turns out for probably an equal number of members the consequences are significantly negative: vets losing jobs due to cap squeezes, RFA's not being qualified, and others having to take pay cuts to compensate for higher cap hits for stars.

You say that you negotiate lots of contracts. What if you were ask to negotiate contracts for 10 people all working for a company with an absolutely fixed amount of money available for their payroll. The first employee going in was considered the most skilled and most valuable to the country. Do you believe that the other 9 employees would push that person to grab as much of the pie as possible? Would you advise them that this was the best strategy if you knew that the fixed size of pot was written in stone? and if you would how would you convince them that this was in their best interest??

Draisaitl and any other player are free to try and get what they think they deserve. In his case, he will almost have a blank cheque, as will McDavid. But both players are smart enough to recognize the impact that their deals have on team depth. They can take this into consideration when deciding on what to take in the end and I see zero evidence that the NHLPA will try to influence their decision in any way. If they choose to take a discount, they will do so without a backlash from the PA.

 

[The Panther]

I completely don't understand this "backlash from the PA" angle. Who the f*** cares what the PA thinks anyway? It's not like Draisaitl is going to sign for $8.99 an hour. And if he did, the PA has to suck it up.

The PA is important, of course, but this idea that it has some sort of authority over the players' own preferences is very wrong-headed. If players aren't free to do whatever they want, then the very purpose of the PA in the first place has been defeated.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Yeah, newbie with two posts, etc., but I have it on good authority the number will start with a 12. You can delete my account if I'm wrong (no pls don't).

That would be a massive win for the team IMO.